Justin Simmons- Questions

[Spice 1]

I think this year’s safety class is a class of extremes. Holland is probably the safest bet in that he’s high floor low ceiling but his 40 time will be interesting, a lot of his highlights he’s actually behind the target which will be big completions in the NFL. There’s a bunch of boom or bust guys. Andre Cisco probably has the highest ceiling and lowest floor but he’s probably my choice if we’re going to develop a guy and he can probably give you some depth at CB. He desperately needs to work on his technique with tackling and his angles in run support and not getting fooled by savvy QBs. Other than that (a lot I know) he’s the only guy I really think could be a centerfield FS which is what I covet in a S. Ball skills are incredible as is his speed. Id have Moehrig right behind him at 2 but he has a much higher floor than Cisco. I’m not sure he’d be quite as good in a single high role but I think he’d be able to hold his own in that role. Nasirildeen looks a tad slow to me at times, I think he’s probably best fit as a box safety and could give you some snaps at LB or as a big nickel against TEs, but I think Isreal Mukuamu is a very similar player who has experience at CB and I generally want my Strong Safeties to play man coverage especially when you face TEs like Waller and Kelce twice a year but Mukuamu doesn’t look smooth planting and driving back to the ball and he’s already a bit lean and gets pushed around a bit especially when the WR is lower than him so he might be limited to a pure press cover 2 type of CB and not the big nickel S I generally like.

I think we have to figure out what we’re doing at CB and ILB first though. Fangio called a lot of cover 4 match zones last season. It’s super conservative and doesn’t really allow for anyone to shine IMO. If we want to play Cover 2 we have to get an athletic ILB or 2 and another CB which is think we need regardless, Jackson, Simmons, and Parks would be fine at S. If we want to go Cover 3 it’s still much of the same but I think we’d have to replace either Jackson or Simmons, Cisco would be ideal in Cover 3 if he hits his ceiling but Moehrig would probably be ready much sooner. Although, and I’m probably the only one who thinks this, but I do like Simmons at CB in a cover 3 press bail style defense similar to the LoB with Sherman and Browner.

Good insight. Thx. I agree with you about ILB and Corner. Bouye is gonzo, I believe. ILB is becoming an increasingly big deal, I think. Don't know if we can trade back for Owusu-Karamoah, but man, 9 seems super steep for him. Please let Surtain fall, is my thinking. Parsons probably a pipe dream. I do like some later corners as well.

[Rich_C]

That gif actually isn’t really a bad play by Simmons. He has to attack the outside leverage of Renfrow to keep him from getting outside because all the pursuit players are inside. The only thing I’d say he did wrong on it was that he didn’t shorten his stride right before going for the tackle and it forced him to lunge off his outside foot vs his inside foot which was still moving. But the difference is 2 yards max. I’m sure he attacks him differently in that situation if there’s no backside pursuit.

But yes he does tend to do that a lot when coming downhill. The Sam Darnold TD run is a prime example.

Let's just say I expect more of my safeties. Especially those who are attempting to command 15 Mil AAS (Average Annual Salary). IF we had a rookie for example on a rookie deal then my comments are much different. Their cost is much less and they would still be learning etc.

[beastlyskronk]

Let's just say I expect more of my safeties. Especially those who are attempting to command 15 Mil AAS (Average Annual Salary). IF we had a rookie for example on a rookie deal then my comments are much different. Their cost is much less and they would still be learning etc.

Would you pay any safety that much money? Because there isn’t much difference between the top 10 safeties in the league. Each one has their own flaw. Harrison Smith is probably the most complete safety but you aren’t going to man him up against WRs or some of the more athletic TEs in the league.

[Bad_Bubba]

You don't think Moehrig or Holland can at least be as good as Simmons? I get the learning curve, but if we cut Jackson, we're going to have a hole at safety anyway. Or you saying pay Simmons, and keep Jackson? In which case, I guess we're letting Harris go? I'd have to look to see if that would be possible, but that's a lot of dough unless Harris takes a massive discount. I'm way out on paying a free agent.

The reason top UFA get big money is because they are known quantity. In the draft you just don't know, every year there are first round pick that do not work out. I do not understand the logic of letting Simmons and Jackson go. Right now it seems the defense needs to be rebuilt because there are plenty of holes - letting 2 of your top defensive players go will not fill any holes. Most rookies struggle in their first year. I would keep both Simmons and Jackson, draft a safety for development. If the #1 pick is not used on a QB, then the Broncos need to use it on a CB.

Create cap space by letting Bouye and Casey go, I would also let Von Miller go - that creates enough space to pay Simmons and some of the other free agents the Broncos should sign.

[Spice 1]

The reason top UFA get big money is because they are known quantity. In the draft you just don't know, every year there are first round pick that do not work out. I do not understand the logic of letting Simmons and Jackson go. Right now it seems the defense needs to be rebuilt because there are plenty of holes - letting 2 of your top defensive players go will not fill any holes. Most rookies struggle in their first year. I would keep both Simmons and Jackson, draft a safety for development. If the #1 pick is not used on a QB, then the Broncos need to use it on a CB.

Create cap space by letting Bouye and Casey go, I would also let Von Miller go - that creates enough space to pay Simmons and some of the other free agents the Broncos should sign.

FA is a rip off, man. How did you feel about Simmons before Fangio? Don't forget we got Simmons with the last pick of the 3rd round as well. I would try to keep Jackson, and let him play out his final year, but if you pay Simmons top 5 safety money long term, you're saying that he's a guy you want to build your defense around. If that's what you want to do, then by all means. I won't try to dissuade you.

If Parsons is on the board, you wouldn't take him over Surtain? Surtain is a pretty safe bet, but if you look deeper into some of the corners projected in the second half of the draft, there are a handful of corners who I feel would be good fits for our defense. Corner is a big need, but I'm not about the hell or highwater approach. Say Parsons is off the board, and somebody wanted to trade up, there are some really good players who would be great picks for us in the back of the 1st and early 2nd.

[Letswinplz77]

He is a solid to good safety, but this All-Pro stuff I don't get. The theme you have highlighted has been a theme with him for years, and as you say, he is not a world beater. Justin Simmons is not going to be worth the contract he gets, I would let him walk and take the compensatory pick in exchange for him, and I would regard that as a win. The guy just isn't an impact player, and I think whoever signs him will be sorely disappointed from day 1, I just hope it isn't us.

The good news, for you, maybe, is that a new GM won't come into the building with any sort of attachments to players, and definitely won't worry about what it looks like if he lets Simmons go. I've spent a lot of time watching all of simmons' tape for this year and last, and what I came up with is a wildly athletic safety with average instincts and above average ball skills. He's a perennial pro bowler who should be the 10th or 12th highest paid at his position.

So for the evaluation, if I'm Paton, I'm considering a few things. Chief among them is will his replacement (if I let him walk), produce commensurate with the money we save. Which is to say, if we pay the replacement 50% of what Simmons wanted, will we get AT LEAST 50% of the production. And I can't decide to let Simmons go without knowing who the replacement player will be. Those just aren't dice worth rolling.

So hopefully we can smash down his asking price a little bit. The overall defensive numbers and the fact that he didn't get selected all pro this year might help. Especially when you consider the performance of others around the league.

[johnlimburg]

The good news, for you, maybe, is that a new GM won't come into the building with any sort of attachments to players, and definitely won't worry about what it looks like if he lets Simmons go. I've spent a lot of time watching all of simmons' tape for this year and last, and what I came up with is a wildly athletic safety with average instincts and above average ball skills. He's a perennial pro bowler who should be the 10th or 12th highest paid at his position.

So for the evaluation, if I'm Paton, I'm considering a few things. Chief among them is will his replacement (if I let him walk), produce commensurate with the money we save. Which is to say, if we pay the replacement 50% of what Simmons wanted, will we get AT LEAST 50% of the production. And I can't decide to let Simmons go without knowing who the replacement player will be. Those just aren't dice worth rolling.

So hopefully we can smash down his asking price a little bit. The overall defensive numbers and the fact that he didn't get selected all pro this year might help. Especially when you consider the performance of others around the league.

Yeah it went about as I thought it would, and your thoughts here are fair, but why don't you see it worth rolling the dice on not immediately replacing him? We are a 5-11 football team with no immediate aspiration to be considerably better, this will be a process. If Simmons walks which I hope he does, then you look at the free-agent market and try to find a Darien Stewert type replacement, a middle of the road contract with a solid player who has some upside, or you look to the draft. But I don't see why a 5-11 team needs to be so hell-bent on replacing the production of Simmons, if he wasn't here last year I don't think much of anything is different in the grand scheme of things.

[Hadez]

I do not think Simmons is going to be worth the contract he will demand.

We already have the 4th highest cap hit safety on the team in 2021...the play of our defensive backfield does not merit having two of the top 5 cap hits at safety on the team. Specially since I am pretty sure Simmons wants to be closer to 19m cap hit at #1 than the 12.8 mil cap hit at #4

[colowoz01]

Pay the man, he is good for this team..Go out and Draft Micah Parsons if he is available. He would be an " Al Wilson" type LB, who would let Justin shine in 2021.

[johnlimburg]

Pay the man ? How much is the question. For the right price most people would like to see him stick around. But, the price is going to be ridiculous based on last off-seasons proceedings, for a player who just isn't a game changer. Also, good for the team ? Like in a he is a good dude type of way and does stuff for the community ? Or on the field ? Either way I am not paying him what he wants based off of either area. What does Simmons do great ? A question I've been asking for a long time but don't get a single answer to, ever.

[S037474]

Rumor is 16-17 million a year, no way I pay any safety that type money. We have much bigger issues. Let him walk, move on to the next.

[johnlimburg]

Jesus, 16 plus Go scam another franchise, thanks for your time Justin.

[Gbt31]

Tag and trade him on Draft Day. Also, we could just draft Moehrig in 2nd who is basically a Simmons clone. Although I love KJ Hamler....and called that we would double dip and draft him last year in second....I really think we missed out on Jeremy Chinn or Antoine Winfield Jr. But yeah, secondary is a HUGE need this year. Especially Safety. I like Simmons, and love his character and quiet leadership, but Safety is not something you invest in heavily unless it is a Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu. I mean Kareem Jackson we got on a reasonable contract and he played amazing last year and mediocre to above average IMO this year. Just not a position you should invest heavily in, especially with our cap bubble looking to burst in 2-3 years.

[johnlimburg]

Tag and trade him on Draft Day. Also, we could just draft Moehrig in 2nd who is basically a Simmons clone. Although I love KJ Hamler....and called that we would double dip and draft him last year in second....I really think we missed out on Jeremy Chinn or Antoine Winfield Jr. But yeah, secondary is a HUGE need this year. Especially Safety. I like Simmons, and love his character and quiet leadership, but Safety is not something you invest in heavily unless it is a Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu. I mean Kareem Jackson we got on a reasonable contract and he played amazing last year and mediocre to above average IMO this year. Just not a position you should invest heavily in, especially with our cap bubble looking to burst in 2-3 years.

It's not worth even trying to do that in my opinion. I would just let him walk, thank him for his time, and some other team will severely overpay for him leading to us getting a compensatory draft pick in the process. The compensation will probably be higher than what someone would give up for him in a trade anyway, just let him walk. What an underrated Elway move though not giving into his inflated demands last off-season, the fans wanted it, the teammates wanted it, but Elway valued something correctly in his final year on the job.

[Gbt31]

It's not worth even trying to do that in my opinion. I would just let him walk, thank him for his time, and some other team will severely overpay for him leading to us getting a compensatory draft pick in the process. The compensation will probably be higher than what someone would give up for him in a trade anyway, just let him walk. What an underrated Elway move though not giving into his inflated demands last off-season, the fans wanted it, the teammates wanted it, but Elway valued something correctly in his final year on the job.

Agreed on the underrated move. I just like walking into the draft with as much capital as possible, but I understand where you are coming from. Less hassle and we get a 3rd rounder for compensation.