Jesse Palmer on what QBs the broncos may look at grabbing

[Ear2dastreets]

How I see it and something I've mentioned when the Watson saga began, was that Houston wants to drag this out until the draft. They wanna drag it out long enough to where teams lose interest bc of time and needing to build their team for the season. Unless Watson decides to just sit out, threatens to sit out, Houston doesn't have to move him.
Denver and Houston have already talked. Even if that talk was just to inquire, they've likely already talked. Some Bronco players likely have had conversations with Watson to tempt him and see if he'd be interested.

I really wish my broncos can pull this off. I see so many pictures of watson in a #4 broncos jersey.

[Butler By'Note]

More cherry picking for you dood...and your threat "coming back" is downright funny.

Yes, recent post didn't back up my previous post about drafting a lot of QBs. But again you missed the point when I said, and I'll quote myself for your convenience:


I clearly said it should be considered, not done. A case can be made that if QBs are so important, drafting more of them until you find one is something that should be discussed. It's purely numbers. If you draft twice as many in later rounds you have twice the chance of finding one. It's the cost that needs to be determined. IMO draft picks are over-valued when considering how many players make an impact vs just filling roster spots. The real cost of this is the practical matter of having all these QBs on the roster and all the QB controversies. That's the real issue IMO, not whether the numbers justify it.

Also, you've shown how I'm open to new positions based on new evidence. That's called "intelligence". And you make fun of it. Seriously? LOL

You were also presented with the very same new evidence but didn't adjust your position and instead tried to "win"again. Come back at me.

Now back to your cherry-picking. You only posted playoff teams. Why not look at all the facts? Here's the last place teams in each division.

Philly - High first round pick
Detroit - High first round pick
Alt - High first round pick
SF - trade

Jets - High first round pick
Cinn - High first round pick
Jax - 6 rd
Den - 2nd rd

True risk management looks at both gain and risk. Yes a player like Burrow may work out, but even if he's good he may not be enough to lift the Bengals. We see 5 of the 8 teams that finished last had highly drafted QB last year.

Using "Ear logic" we can only base our decisions on one year and we can clearly see that drafting a QB high in the first round means a 62.5% chance of being last in your division. And in case Ear didn't notice, you can't be last in your division and win the Super Bowl.

But not all of those high draft picks were exactly like the others. Yes Atlanta had a high 1st round draft pick QB and yes they finished last in their division, but you left out that this was season 13 for him, and he's played some very good football for them in that time, getting them to a Super Bowl.

Philly had a high first round pick QB, and the wheels certainly fell off, but he played well for them for a couple of years, and he was a big part of them winning a Super Bowl. That's a nice tradeoff.

Detroit's high first round pick QB played 12 seasons for them

Cincy's high first round pick QB is a rookie and only played 10 games due to a knee injury. But in those first 10 games he looked like he was well worth the price they paid for him. Hopefully he can come back and play at a high level again.

So of the 5 teams that you pointed to that spent a high first round pick on a QB, the only one who looks like they drafted a bustard who didn't get a good return on their investment is the Jets. The Eagles could also qualify as a bust, but to me winning a Super Bowl (they were 11-2 in his starts that year) mitigates it.

[lvbronx]

For those that want to discuss football, it's hard to place "value" on a QB based on where they are drafted. For example, Lamar Jackson was the 30th overall in the first. Drew Brees was the 32 pick but in the second.

There's also things like distribution. What percentage of all QBs are drafted in the first compared to all other rounds as well as each other round, plus UDFAs? Which brings us back to my point above and how it should be factored. Jackson's draft position is closer to being Brees than Mayfield but is considered a first and Brees a second.

Assuming we can get an accurate distribution it would better for comparing rounds. Lets say 3 times as many first rounders make the playoffs as second rounders. However, 4x as many QBs are drafted in the first than the second. This would indicate second rounders are a better investment. Note to Ears: This is an EXAMPLE to explain a point and is NOT intended to be taken literally.

Then we need to factor in the "value" of the pics of each round. While this is intangible, we can assume that the higher the pick the higher the value. Spending a high pick on a QB has a higher cost in lost opportunity.

Next we have to also consider a paradise fallacy that a goal/objective has to be perfect, in this case a Super Bowl win. In reality the NFL is a business and winning more games is good business. While winning Super Bowls is the primary goal, winning games and getting better is also a solid goal. So..a QB like Jake Plummer (BTW a second round pick then FA) may not be able to carry a team to a Super Bowl win, but he was better than Brian Griese, the QB he replaced and we won a lot of games with Jake.

We shouldn't confuse "simple" with "easy". Getting a franchise QB to win Super Bowls is a simple, valid plan. It just isn't easy. What's Plan B?

[lvbronx]

But not all of those high draft picks were exactly like the others. Yes Atlanta had a high 1st round draft pick QB and yes they finished last in their division, but you left out that this was season 13 for him, and he's played some very good football for them in that time, getting them to a Super Bowl.

Philly had a high first round pick QB, and the wheels certainly fell off, but he played well for them for a couple of years, and he was a big part of them winning a Super Bowl. That's a nice tradeoff.

Detroit's high first round pick QB played 12 seasons for them

Cincy's high first round pick QB is a rookie and only played 10 games due to a knee injury. But in those first 10 games he looked like he was well worth the price they paid for him. Hopefully he can come back and play at a high level again.

So of the 5 teams that you pointed to that spent a high first round pick on a QB, the only one who looks like they drafted a bustard who didn't get a good return on their investment is the Jets. The Eagles could also qualify as a bust, but to me winning a Super Bowl (they were 11-2 in his starts that year) mitigates it.

Seems you missed the entire point of my post. Sure there are many other factors and you actually just proved my points. There was a list made of teams that made the playoffs which included the percentage of playoff teams with first round picks. I countered with last place teams with first round picks.


You changed the goal posts with this straw man:

So of the 5 teams that you pointed to that spent a high first round pick on a QB, the only one who looks like they drafted a bustard who didn't get a good return on their investment is the Jets. The Eagles could also qualify as a bust, but to me winning a Super Bowl (they were 11-2 in his starts that year) mitigates it.

I never said any of the QBs were "busts". I simply made a factual list of the teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. Playoff teams was the criteria given and the one I responded to with last place teams for balance. These lists are not the criteria I chose.

[jazzbodog]

Reading all of the threads / posts regarding QB's this, QB's that....hundreds of varying opinions....could-should-would....who's right, who's wrong.
Interesting print dialog.

Putting all this in a "opinion pile" boils down to "definite maybes." I enjoy the engaging electronic "banter" and "fisticuffs." Lots of sensical and nonsensical info.

I know it will never happen but what if a new category was created like: "I Told You So Smack" or You Should Have Listened To Me Smack?

Of course rigid rules would be required to keep members in-line and civil but members could see who is insightful and who isn't. Lame idea.....probably.

[Butler By'Note]

Seems you missed the entire point of my post. Sure there are many other factors and you actually just proved my points. There was a list made of teams that made the playoffs which included the percentage of playoff teams with first round picks. I countered with last place teams with first round picks.


You changed the goal posts with this straw man:


I never said any of the QBs were "busts". I simply made a factual list of the teams that didn't make the playoffs last year. Playoff teams was the criteria given and the one I responded to with last place teams for balance. These lists are not the criteria I chose.

But two of those picks gave their teams 12+ years of service. It's a coincidence not a correlation. There's easier line to be drawn to the playoff teams and first round picks being correlated (I don't necessarily believe that one either).

And again I'll respond to your original point of drafting many QBs to hit on one (I actually responded to that earlier) It's a good idea if you don't have a limited supply of picks, and 22 starting positions you need to keep filled. Drafting 3 QBs may improve your odds of finding one that's good. But it also limits your ability to draft players to fill other spots. Even if you find the one QB you've now wasted two picks that could have been used to try and fill those other 21 spots. And if all 3 fail then you've missed on 3 chances to make your team better, and you're in the exact same boat.

[Capt. Jack]

Can someone post pictures of D. Watson in a Broncos Jersey

[DiveInstructor]

from my understanding, they didnt offer lock. theres been a lot of speculation about what was offered. from everything i have seen we offered a first round pick and then backed out when asked for more.

Could be. I heard several places that Lock was indeed offered, but since none of the info is coming from the front office, I think none of us really know what happened. I'd be pretty disappointed if Paton did nothing to try to put in place an alternative plan to success at that position immediately. Waiting several years on Lock to "get it" is a path to failure, IMO.

[rst08tierney]

When did Manning commit to the broncos? Was it March 20th?

[DiveInstructor]

When did Manning commit to the broncos? Was it March 20th?

Yeah, that's when he signed his contract for 5 years, $96M. Talk about a deal.

[Butler By'Note]

Yeah, that's when he signed his contract for 5 years, $96M. Talk about a deal.

Rumors are (or were at the time) that Manning had the exact structure of the contract he wanted to sign laid out ahead of time, and he actually had to talk the Broncos into putting in provisions to protect them in case he wasn't healthy. The example being he needed to pass a physical on his neck every year before the league year started. And it was heavy on salary not signing bonus so that if his neck was an issue they wouldn't have to take a massive cap hit if he had to retire.

[Capt. Jack]

If the Panthers get Watson, maybe we get Bridgewater?

[colowoz01]

Houston waiting on trading Watson makes some sense as they can not only capitalize on getting draft capitol but more important on who is available at Denver's draft position. Let me explain, I read some where if The draft plays out where A QB ( that Houston would want) Is at the # 9 spot there is a good chance a trade happens. This is a win/win for the Texans.

Now we know Watson has decided what teams he would consider in a trade. Denver or SF, so the above scenario would also pertain to SF. Texans gets
a 1st round QB they wanted and this will be easier to sell to the fans. As well as drat picks.

High level talks between many teams have been ongoing, But the finale decision will be made by Watson.

Myself I thought taking a QB with pick #9 is still a good idea (as this is a good QB class), But Kudos if they sign a 25 year young Top NFL QB.

[colowoz01]

someone requested this, best I could find.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DenverBronc...chapdesign_on/

[colowoz01]

Watson wants out.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ans-wont-talk/