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  • The Elway Model?

    Seeing the swirling drama around Stafford, Watson and now Rodgers this season makes me suspect that acquiring or trading for one of these guys was Elway's long-term plan for the team all along, and Paton is just executing on it. It may have been his personnel management model -- call it the Elway Model -- even before he got Peyton Manning. And the bad quarterback situation we've had since Manning left was by design.

    Who was the prototypical HoF quarterback who said he wouldn't play for the team that drafted him and demanded a trade? Then had major disputes with the new team's drafting decisions because they wouldn't give him an adequate supporting cast? John Elway.

    If there's anyone in the league who knows something about secretly disgruntled star QBs, and what must be done to acquire them, it's Elway.

    So now you become the GM of an NFL team. Your choices are (#1) do what everyone else does and overdraft QBs high in the first round with a high bust rate, or (#2) pioneer a radically different model.

    In that model -- the Elway Model -- you don't chase rookie QBs with high draft picks, then pay them a fortune if they pan out that will require cannibalizing the rest of the roster to do it, and which often leads to coaches and GMs getting fired if they don't pan out. Instead, you spend your draft picks on building a roster that will attract an established but frustrated QB to come play for you when his contract runs out. You build an otherwise-good roster with an Aaron Rodgers-shaped hole in it.

    Such a model has advantages and drawbacks. The main drawbacks are that until the top-shelf QB talent arrives, you're oscillating between 9-7 on the high end and 5-11 on the low end, and the fans are frustrated that you're not chasing a QB in the draft. But you spend less because your seat-warmer QBs are cheap, and you have cap room -- one of the things you need to attract a potential QB target -- and the team never falls to a level abysmal enough to get the top overall draft pick, at which point you have a reasonable chance of drafting a good QB.

    If the Elway Model is the strategy he's secretly been following all along, then the proper diagnosis of the last few years is not that Elway has failed to find a QB in the draft, it's that he's failed to attract a QB in free agency, and the low first-round/second round guys we've been dinking around with were never the main plan, but guys to keep the seat warm. Sure, if Lynch or Lock or Osweiler develops then great, but that was always Plan B. Plan A was to attract the next Peyton Manning. The failure to do that may just be the timing of when top QB contracts run their course, or the roster depletion that happens after winning the Super Bowl, or the aborted shift to the Kubiak offense messing up the attractiveness of the roster to potential QB acquisitions. But in the fullness of time, there suddenly seem to be multiple QB targets for which our roster is prime bait. Is that a coincidence, or a plan?
    Last edited by CasualFan; 05-01-2021, 10:13 AM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by CasualFan View Post
    Seeing the swirling drama around Stafford, Watson and now Rodgers this season makes me suspect that acquiring or trading for one of these guys was Elway's long-term plan for the team all along, and Paton is just executing on it. It may have been his personnel management model -- call it the Elway Model -- even before he got Peyton Manning. And the bad quarterback situation we've had since Manning left was by design.

    Who was the prototypical HoF quarterback who said he wouldn't play for the team that drafted him and demanded a trade? Then had major disputes with the new team's drafting decisions because they wouldn't give him an adequate supporting cast? John Elway.

    If there's anyone in the league who knows something about secretly disgruntled star QBs, and what must be done to acquire them, it's Elway.

    So now you become the GM of an NFL team. Your choices are (#1) do what everyone else does and overdraft QBs high in the first round with a high bust rate, or (#2) pioneer a radically different model.

    In that model -- the Elway Model -- you don't chase rookie QBs with high draft picks, then pay them a fortune if they pan out that will require cannibalizing the rest of the roster to do it, and which often leads to coaches and GMs getting fired if they don't pan out. Instead, you spend your draft picks on building a roster that will attract an established but frustrated QB to come play for you when his contract runs out. You build an otherwise-good roster with an Aaron Rodgers-shaped hole in it.

    Such a model has advantages and drawbacks. The main drawbacks are that until the top-shelf QB talent arrives, you're oscillating between 9-7 on the high end and 5-11 on the low end, and the fans are frustrated that you're not chasing a QB in the draft. But you spend less because your seat-warmer QBs are cheap, and you have cap room -- one of the things you need to attract a potential QB target -- and the team never falls to a level abysmal enough to get the top overall draft pick, at which point you have a reasonable chance of drafting a good QB.

    If the Elway Model is the strategy he's secretly been following all along, then the proper diagnosis of the last few years is not that Elway has failed to find a QB in the draft, it's that he's failed to attract a QB in free agency, and the low first-round/second round guys we've been dinking around with were never the main plan, but guys to keep the seat warm. Sure, if Lynch or Lock or Osweiler develops then great, but that was always Plan B. Plan A was to attract the next Peyton Manning. The failure to do that may just be the timing of when top QB contracts run their course, or the roster depletion that happens after winning the Super Bowl, or the aborted shift to the Kubiak offense messing up the attractiveness of the roster to potential QB acquisitions. But in the fullness of time, there suddenly seem to be multiple QB targets for which our roster is prime bait. Is that a coincidence, or a plan?
    Wish that was the case but Elways wasted a ton of draft capital and money on terrible Qb's :

    • 2012: Brock Osweiler (second round, 57th overall). Retired. At least Elway didn’t give him a second contract.

    • 2015: Trevor Siemian (seventh round, 250th overall). Best value of the bunch: 13-11 in two post-Manning years.

    • 2016: Paxton Lynch (first round, 26th overall). Total bust.

    • 2018: Case Keenum (UFA). Paid $25 million for a year, and Keenum was the NFL’s 29th-rated QB.

    • 2019: Joe Flacco (acquired for a fourth-round pick, 113th overall). Over the Hill. Well past his prime.

    • 2019: Drew Lock (second round, 42nd overall). Incomplete. 75.4 QBR / 8-10 W/L

    Elway couldn't even get tanking for Andrew Luck right when he went with TEBOW in 2011 and accidently made the playoffs!!!
    Last edited by rst08tierney; 05-01-2021, 11:52 AM.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by rst08tierney View Post

      Wish that was the case but Elways wasted a ton of draft capital and money on terrible Qb's :

      • 2012: Brock Osweiler (second round, 57th overall). Retired. At least Elway didn’t give him a second contract.

      • 2015: Trevor Siemian (seventh round, 250th overall). Best value of the bunch: 13-11 in two post-Manning years.

      • 2016: Paxton Lynch (first round, 26th overall). Total bust.

      • 2018: Case Keenum (UFA). Paid $25 million for a year, and Keenum was the NFL’s 29th-rated QB.

      • 2019: Joe Flacco (acquired for a fourth-round pick, 113th overall). Over the Hill. Well past his prime.

      • 2019: Drew Lock (second round, 42nd overall). Incomplete. 75.4 QBR / 8-10 W/L

      Elway couldn't even get tanking for Andrew Luck right when he went with TEBOW in 2011 and accidently made the playoffs!!!
      Sure, you need some guys to keep the seat warm who will gracefully turn into decent backups when you get your next Manning. If the model is to get the next Manning, then you have to assume, as an older quarterback, that they're more injury-prone. You need an Osweiler to win a few games when the inevitable injuries happen. Elway knows the value of a Kubiak as your #2 from experience. Getting a good backup is not a waste of draft capital; the QBs you listed are where most backup QBs get drafted.

      Paxton Lynch is a special case, as they moved up a few slots to get him. I think at the time Elway was trying to get someone that would fit Kubiak's system. Flacco also arrived in Denver because he'd played for Kubiak and played well under him:

      Paxton Lynch was seen in some circles as a guy who could go in the top 10 after Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went one-two. When that proved to be false and Lynch began to slide within range, the Broncos traded up to No. 26 overall and grabbed the third-best QB in the draft, giving them their presumed quarterback of the future.

      Lynch will come with a fraction of the price tag Osweiler would have, and demonstrates several of the same traits. In all honesty, he may be a better fit for this Gary Kubiak-style of offense than Osweiler was, anyway.

      Lynch came out of an offense in Memphis that was every bit as divorced from “pro-style” systems as the hyper-spread systems the NFL rails about. Lynch would roll out constantly and regularly only be reading half the field. You can go through his tape and spend a long time before you see him need to move to his second read in his progression, and even many of those plays are more single-reads of a defender against a combination of routes—high/low and hit the receiver that doesn’t draw the defender.

      Kubiak is of course well known for his roll-out offense and play-action passing plays. Lynch, for a big quarterback, is also pretty athletic—more so than Osweiler, and probably more than any quarterback Kubiak has had in the system for quite some time. His athleticism is comparable to that of Joe Flacco, and I’d give Lynch the edge in that regard. Flacco enjoyed his best year for a long time with Kubiak in charge of the offense in Baltimore, thriving on some of these concepts.

      Play-action passes are usually designed to open up big plays. Joe Flacco has always had a cannon for an arm, but has rarely been able to bring it under control and be accurate with the deep balls such a system allows him to throw. Lynch is accurate on those passes. In fact, last season he was accurate on 51.8 percent of passes that traveled 20+ yards in the air. That was the fifth-best mark in the FBS, and would have been the best mark in the NFL, where obviously competition and coverage is tougher.
      Why Paxton Lynch is perfect fit for Gary Kubiak's offense

      https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-p...ubiaks-offense

      Comment


      • #4
        Nah. I think the Elway model is to sip on some scotch while throwing darts at the board hoping something works. If you think a draftee is the guy and you can get the deal done then pull the trigger on that. If there is a FA available that might upgrade the position and the money is right then you sign him. If a team is willing to trade you a guy that fits the room and the contract is good then you make the trade. Just every year trying to take advantage of whatever situation presents itself. Take another sip. Throw another dart. Hey, maybe this will work.
        Adopt-A-Bronco: Kendell Hinton

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        • #5
          Originally posted by CasualFan View Post
          .......

          If the Elway Model is the strategy he's secretly been following all along, then the proper diagnosis of the last few years is not that Elway has failed to find a QB in the draft, it's that he's failed to attract a QB in free agency, and the low first-round/second round guys we've been dinking around with were never the main plan, but guys to keep the seat warm. Sure, if Lynch or Lock or Osweiler develops then great, but that was always Plan B. Plan A was to attract the next Peyton Manning. The failure to do that may just be the timing of when top QB contracts run their course, or the roster depletion that happens after winning the Super Bowl, or the aborted shift to the Kubiak offense messing up the attractiveness of the roster to potential QB acquisitions. But in the fullness of time, there suddenly seem to be multiple QB targets for which our roster is prime bait. Is that a coincidence, or a plan?
          I think the Elway model for QB is that he is not able to evaluate the complexities of physical skill, mental acumen, psychological and social makeup and heart that make up a supremely succesful QB, and he does not seem to evaluate their individual importance for success. We can all see that a Peyton Manning is great, a Aaron Rodgers...... but why does Elway fail to see the "holes in the cheese" with the mental makeup of Lock, Lynch, Osweiler... Why do we keep getting QBs that do not learn? Siemian is the only post Manning QB that seemed to learn, but he started from a basis that made him a late 7th round pick.

          I am 100% sure that the Elway plan every year is to make the team great, and that no one hurts more inside from his failings than he does! I am sure he deserves an A+ for effort!

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by BroncoFanDK View Post

            I think the Elway model for QB is that he is not able to evaluate the complexities of physical skill, mental acumen, psychological and social makeup and heart that make up a supremely succesful QB, and he does not seem to evaluate their individual importance for success. We can all see that a Peyton Manning is great, a Aaron Rodgers...... but why does Elway fail to see the "holes in the cheese" with the mental makeup of Lock, Lynch, Osweiler... Why do we keep getting QBs that do not learn? Siemian is the only post Manning QB that seemed to learn, but he started from a basis that made him a late 7th round pick.

            I am 100% sure that the Elway plan every year is to make the team great, and that no one hurts more inside from his failings than he does! I am sure he deserves an A+ for effort!
            Elway knows all that, it's just that those attributes aren't usually available at the bottom of the first round or top of the second round, which is where we have been forced to draft QBs since Manning left. If a QB has all those traits they get snatched up in the top five picks, if not higher. So Elway picked a subset of those traits, e.g., the ones you can't coach, such as physical tools, and then crossed his fingers and hoped that coaching and the right system could compensate for the deficits elsewhere.

            But if we assume a HoF QB knows this, then one might ask whether he has tried to work a personnel strategy designed to make the team attractive to an Aaron Rodgers rather than somehow tank hard enough to get a top-five draft pick, or mortgage several first round draft picks to trade up to that level. Meanwhile making do with cheaply-drafted guys and castoff free agents to bide the time.

            Comment


            • #7
              I think Elway is sipping some of the good stuff and looking to retire.

              Elway has Super Bowls, playoffs and many wins as QB and GM. He is ready to sit back and retire.

              Whatever we doing now is Paton's plan.
              Time to build on the win and grow the team from some solid play higher level of play

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