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Lets Poll It....Do You Want Aaron Rodgers To Lead The Denver Broncos?

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  • The similarities between Manning/Brady and Rodgers is Manning and Brady both joined mediocre teams and made them Super Bowl contenders instantly. Salary cap is a constant with all three, although Brady is a real abiration because he can take pay cuts because his wife is the highest paid supermodel in the world and makes $40-50 million a year. But Manning was a cap hit. Brady took over for a QB that lead the NFL in INTs on a losing team and won the Super Bowl. When Manning came, we were 8-8 and extremely lucky to have won 8 games because of a few miracle finishes.

    The difference is the value needed to acquire Rodgers and it's a big difference. He's a draft and cap hit, and probably a roster hit.

    This is offset a little by the willingness of vet FAs to join the Broncos. I do think draft picks are overrated by many, but they still have real value. Looking back I would easily trade every QB we have ever drafted for Rodgers, including the three first round QBs we've drafted. And we have the cap space.

    Any deal for Rodgers will be painful. The value is a close to a "sure thing" at QB as there is.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by lvbronx View Post

      However, the goal of a sportsbook is NOT to predict winners or losers, it is to balance the betting on each side so the sportsbook doesn't gamble. If there's $1000 bet on the Broncos then they want $1000 bet on the Raiders so they can't lose and are guaranteed the vig as profit. As an odds setter, this is your one and only job, to make sure the wagers are even. If not, you're out of a job. Yes they read injury reports, but that's to read how the public will bet.

      Their predictions, and they are good at it, are about how the public will bet, not who will win. After an opening line is set, any change is a result of the amount being bet on each side. As far as accuracy, stats show if the line moves and it's caused by the general public's betting, they are usually wrong. However if the line moves because of wise guys betting the number up, bet with the wise guys. The hard part is figuring out why the line is moving.

      BTW the wise guy situation is for Las Vegas. With all the new sportsbooks opening across the USA I really don't know how they are being affected.
      Of course, but in this case this a futures bet. Different than a weekly game or an in game wager. SB futures bets aren't set to "even out"... especially not this early.
      The fact that they couldn't leave the Broncos at 66/1 is significant.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by lvbronx View Post
        The similarities between Manning/Brady and Rodgers is Manning and Brady both joined mediocre teams and made them Super Bowl contenders instantly. Salary cap is a constant with all three, although Brady is a real abiration because he can take pay cuts because his wife is the highest paid supermodel in the world and makes $40-50 million a year. But Manning was a cap hit. Brady took over for a QB that lead the NFL in INTs on a losing team and won the Super Bowl. When Manning came, we were 8-8 and extremely lucky to have won 8 games because of a few miracle finishes.

        The difference is the value needed to acquire Rodgers and it's a big difference. He's a draft and cap hit, and probably a roster hit.

        This is offset a little by the willingness of vet FAs to join the Broncos. I do think draft picks are overrated by many, but they still have real value. Looking back I would easily trade every QB we have ever drafted for Rodgers, including the three first round QBs we've drafted. And we have the cap space.

        Any deal for Rodgers will be painful. The value is a close to a "sure thing" at QB as there is.
        In sports, in life for that matter...this speaks volumes, This is what this deal would be all about. I highly doubt anyone gets fired as a result of it. Significant cost but high reward likely. I try to weigh the cost/benefits:

        Cost

        Rodgers salary (it is definitely significant)
        Loss of some high draft picks
        Loss of a player or two likely

        Benefits

        MVP "all time" great QB on a mission
        Lock or Bridgewater would not be a real loss if traded (given we still have one of them)
        Draft pick effect would not start til 2022 season and are not a guarantee
        Draft picks would likely be later first round
        Likelihood of better selection of Free Agents (could offset draft pick loss)
        Team confidence
        Team roster, outside of QB stable, is ranked fairly high


        Comment


        • Originally posted by atwaterandstir View Post

          Of course, but in this case this a futures bet. Different than a weekly game or an in game wager. SB futures bets aren't set to "even out"... especially not this early.
          The fact that they couldn't leave the Broncos at 66/1 is significant.
          Futures are set to even out, that's why the odds have changed. As people put money on Rodgers to Denver, the future odds went down to encourage bets on other teams in an effort to balance the books. The biggest difference is a straight bet has a vig of 5% and futures/parlays etc have a vig of closer to 20% so futures are a lot more profitable for the sportsbooks. This means for every $100 a sportsbook takes in, it pays back $80 and on a straight $100 bet they pay back 95%, assuming the wagers are balanced.

          Comment


          • At this point the “ cost” is entirely speculative and dependent on how biased anyone is to the move.

            The “cost” is based on how valuable you consider current players potentially included in the trade. Players like Surtain, Risner, Jeudy, etc. All high draft picks that are difficult to replace. Even with vet free agents willing to take deals.

            And the “cost” has to include the players likely released or lost in free agency next year as Rodgers expected new contract takes effect. Tough decisions like Miller, Chubb, Sutton, Fuller?

            Picks, players, and new contract all add up to a hell of a lot of assets when compared to most trades of a late round pick and absorb the contract types. Or a straight up free agent signing that must be manipulated by the accountants is entirely different then the required cap restrictions Rodgers potentially puts on the team for the next few years.

            IMO the trade has to be very specific and in all honesty not very realistic on my part. A few picks and a workable contract. Beyond that I lose interest quickly. Even for a player like Rodgers.

            I also readily admit that I am influenced by my questionable belief that Lock is going to develop more then some. Starting from that point gives me a bit of a buffer compared to those that believe that Lock is a bust and lost cause. That opinion creates more of a sense of desperation to acquire Rodgers then I currently have. It makes a difference in motivation too.



            Comment


            • Originally posted by FR Tim View Post
              At this point the “ cost” is entirely speculative and dependent on how biased anyone is to the move.

              The “cost” is based on how valuable you consider current players potentially included in the trade. Players like Surtain, Risner, Jeudy, etc. All high draft picks that are difficult to replace. Even with vet free agents willing to take deals.

              And the “cost” has to include the players likely released or lost in free agency next year as Rodgers expected new contract takes effect. Tough decisions like Miller, Chubb, Sutton, Fuller?

              Picks, players, and new contract all add up to a hell of a lot of assets when compared to most trades of a late round pick and absorb the contract types. Or a straight up free agent signing that must be manipulated by the accountants is entirely different then the required cap restrictions Rodgers potentially puts on the team for the next few years.

              IMO the trade has to be very specific and in all honesty not very realistic on my part. A few picks and a workable contract. Beyond that I lose interest quickly. Even for a player like Rodgers.

              I also readily admit that I am influenced by my questionable belief that Lock is going to develop more then some. Starting from that point gives me a bit of a buffer compared to those that believe that Lock is a bust and lost cause. That opinion creates more of a sense of desperation to acquire Rodgers then I currently have. It makes a difference in motivation too.


              To be clear, I for one do not believe Lock is a bust. I am not sure if he's the starter long term. Even if I did, Rodgers would still be enticing. Unless I thought Lock was going to be an above average starter.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by CanDB View Post

                To be clear, I for one do not believe Lock is a bust. I am not sure if he's the starter long term. Even if I did, Rodgers would still be enticing. Unless I thought Lock was going to be an above average starter.
                None of us know how good or disappointing Lock will become. That is partly why this is a tough position to take on the Rodgers trade.

                If Lock doesn’t rise his game to even an average NFL standard it makes arguing to keep him as the starter a foolish stance. Only he can prove it on the field. Until then it is all speculation.

                And to be clear, I’m not expecting Lock to be the next Rodgers, Mahommes or Brady. I’m expecting more Eli then Peyton. I would be fine with Lock getting into that 2nd tier QB category. More like Mayfield, Stafford or Prescott. A good leader that gets the job done on a balanced team. Obviously he is not there yet. But I think he can and will be.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by FR Tim View Post

                  None of us know how good or disappointing Lock will become. That is partly why this is a tough position to take on the Rodgers trade.

                  If Lock doesn’t rise his game to even an average NFL standard it makes arguing to keep him as the starter a foolish stance. Only he can prove it on the field. Until then it is all speculation.

                  And to be clear, I’m not expecting Lock to be the next Rodgers, Mahommes or Brady. I’m expecting more Eli then Peyton. I would be fine with Lock getting into that 2nd tier QB category. More like Mayfield, Stafford or Prescott. A good leader that gets the job done on a balanced team. Obviously he is not there yet. But I think he can and will be.
                  This is the dilemma, though it will not be one if The Pack and Rodgers get their act together....which is likely to be the case. Had Lock had a better season I would not have an issue with any of this. Then again, it would be a little worrisome if Rodgers got traded to The Raiders.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by CanDB View Post

                    This is the dilemma, though it will not be one if The Pack and Rodgers get their act together....which is likely to be the case. Had Lock had a better season I would not have an issue with any of this. Then again, it would be a little worrisome if Rodgers got traded to The Raiders.
                    Nah. The Raiders will always be the Raiders..........They'll have their lucky games against us....but we will always be better than them.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by FR Tim View Post

                      None of us know how good or disappointing Lock will become. That is partly why this is a tough position to take on the Rodgers trade.

                      If Lock doesn’t rise his game to even an average NFL standard it makes arguing to keep him as the starter a foolish stance. Only he can prove it on the field. Until then it is all speculation.

                      And to be clear, I’m not expecting Lock to be the next Rodgers, Mahomes or Brady. I’m expecting more Eli then Peyton. I would be fine with Lock getting into that 2nd tier QB category. More like Mayfield, Stafford or Prescott. A good leader that gets the job done on a balanced team. Obviously he is not there yet. But I think he can and will be.
                      All of what you say is an excellent analogy / opinion and I agree 100%.
                      Utah Bronco Freak

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by atwaterandstir View Post

                        Vegasinsider.com is a good online book if your interested.

                        Just on Rodgers speculation alone the Broncos went from 66/1 roughly 45 days ago to 20/1 now.

                        Sportsbooks are a great indication of what type of news has merit....trades, injuries etc. The money backing the sportsbooks are the most well informed out there- as they should be. Gambling on sports is a huge reason there are fans and interest. These guys are why we have injury reports, restrictions on when lineups have to submitted etc. This is actually a reason I get pretty excited about the possibility.
                        Thank you sir.
                        Utah Bronco Freak

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by skeeter01 View Post

                          Nah. The Raiders will always be the Raiders..........They'll have their lucky games against us....but we will always be better than them.
                          Not to be a party pooper, but they beat us both times this past year. We can't lose to them twice in a year and expect to go far.

                          Comment


                          • Just an aside....Paton has shown interest in another QB, so whatever I think, or others who see this the same way as me, it does appear we may be aligned with him. And if Rodgers becomes available, lets see what Paton does. If he makes an offer, those of us pushing for Rodgers will not be seen as "unhappy" fans, rather tuned in fans. And based on the poll conducted here, about 85% of us really want him. So this is not a disgruntled fan reaction, rather one with purpose, and possibly aligned with The GM. We will see....unless of course The Pack sign him.

                            85% is a significant segment of the group. Assuming they all voted with good intent. Then again, why wouldn't they?

                            Last edited by CanDB; 05-23-2021, 05:53 PM.

                            Comment


                            • We all should be “unhappy fans” after the way the franchise has declined and the team has had several losing seasons.

                              We all want the same thing... for the Broncos to win games!

                              Does not matter if we disagree on the “ how” they get it done. I don’t agree with every free agent decision, drafted player or game plan either but I still root for the team every game.

                              My “ happiness” is based on the teams success not whether I am in tune with the GM or coach. Paton chooses to trade what I consider a ridiculous amount of assets for Rodgers, I’m still cheering on every play.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                                Just an aside....Paton has shown interest in another QB, so whatever I think, or others who see this the same way as me, it does appear we may be aligned with him. And if Rodgers becomes available, lets see what Paton does. If he makes an offer, those of us pushing for Rodgers will not be seen as "unhappy" fans, rather tuned in fans. And based on the poll conducted here, about 85% of us really want him. So this is not a disgruntled fan reaction, rather one with purpose, and possibly aligned with The GM. We will see....unless of course The Pack sign him.

                                85% is a significant segment of the group. Assuming they all voted with good intent. Then again, why wouldn't they?
                                Based on the pole conducted here you cannot tell a whole lot because it is so poorly constructed.

                                99.99% of us would tale Rodgers in a straight swap for Drew Lock where Green Bay paid the difference in salary, but that is not the situation we are facing. What an elite QB do is a unicorn argument because it comes with major baggage. While there are huge correlations between QB play and W/L rates - on some rating metrics up to 88% over multiple seasons, there is a reason that teams with QBs making the percentage of the cap space that Rodgers/Wilson/Dak/Watson/Mahomes..... do have not won the SB in the salary cap era and none of those mentioned here have cost their teams the kind of draft capital we are talking here. Rodgers was 8% of cap when they won the SB, RW was 0.5% and 0.6% the two times they won the NFCC games.

                                Late round playoffs are not about the superstar QBs but about teams. It is very easy to take a position when you do not want to look at the flipside. Would anyone have taken 2012 Joe Flacco over 2012 Aaron Rodgers? Against elite teams you need to be able to win at all or most of the positions. 40 million contracts and the trading away of major draft capital makes this a deal that has very likelihood of success unless our ambitions are not to win it all.

                                Manning could carry Colts and us to the playoffs every year, but it took a much different team to win.
                                Last edited by BroncoFanDK; 05-24-2021, 02:56 AM.

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