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Thank goodness we gave up on Lock after 1.5 seasons

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  • Originally posted by CasualFan View Post
    Bridgewater's CPOE and EPA stats for 2021 are near the top of the league (#2 for CPOE, 7th for EPA/play), and it's not due to a dink-and-dunk style, as he ranks 13th in air yards at 8.2. (Jared Goff is at the bottom at 6.3, by way of comparison.) He's still #7 in CPOE if filtered for garbage time (< 10% win probability), and 12th in EPA/play.

    Lock's 2020 stats: 38th in CPOE, 32nd in EPA/play. But his air yards ranked #2 in the league at 9.0, so there's "talent," if that's how such a thing is to be measured.

    https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
    https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EuSDBeeXYAA2F9S-768x768.png


    Click image for larger version Name:	Bridgewater CPOE vs EPA 2021.png Views:	0 Size:	263.4 KB ID:	8387082

    Click image for larger version Name:	Lock CPOE vs EPA 2020.png Views:	0 Size:	141.4 KB ID:	8387083
    Bridgewater is near the top in sacks and the offense is 23rd in 3rd down conversions.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post

      Bridgewater is near the top in sacks and the offense is 23rd in 3rd down conversions.
      Yes, the offensive line DVOA ranks #27 in pass protection because of all the injuries:

      https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...sive-line/2021

      Or are you saying it's all Bridgewater's fault? Was it all Elway's fault that he got sacked so much?

      Football Outsiders ranks Bridgewater #11 in the league in DYAR and #12 in DVOA, which are statistics designed to adjust not just for (among other things) the rate of 3rd down conversions, but their situational difficulty:

      https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021

      If quarterback A has a line that protects him and can run block, so after two running plays that gain 4.5 yards each he's got to convert 3rd-and-1, and quarterback B has a line that does not protect him or can't run block, so the running game only gets 2 yards on first down, allows a sack for -7 yards on second down, and so he has to convert a 3rd-and-15, then obviously quarterback B will tend to have the lower 3rd down conversion rate. Which is why statisticians have developed stats like DYAR, DVOA, CPOE and EPA to adjust for the relative difficulty of the two tasks.
      Last edited by CasualFan; 11-29-2021, 09:05 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by CasualFan View Post

        Yes, the offensive line DVOA ranks #27 in pass protection because of all the injuries:

        https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...sive-line/2021

        Or are you saying it's all Bridgewater's fault? Was it all Elway's fault that he got sacked so much?

        Football Outsiders ranks Bridgewater #11 in the league in DYAR and #12 in DVOA, which are statistics designed to adjust not just for (among other things) the rate of 3rd down conversions, but their situational difficulty:

        https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021

        If quarterback A has a line that protects him and can run block, so after two running plays that gain 4.5 yards each he's got to convert 3rd-and-1, and quarterback B has a line that does not protect him or can't run block, so the running game only gets 2 yards on first down, allows a sack for -7 yards on second down, and so he has to convert a 3rd-and-15, then obviously quarterback B will tend to have the lower 3rd down conversion rate. Which is why statisticians have developed stats like DYAR, DVOA, CPOE and EPA to adjust for the relative difficulty of the two tasks.
        With Teddy’s great stats no wonder the offense is a scoring Juggernaut!

        Comment


        • Why is it when Teddy throws an interception it's on the coach but when Lock throws an interception it's on him?

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          • Originally posted by BroncoBreeder View Post
            Why is it when Teddy throws an interception it's on the coach but when Lock throws an interception it's on him?
            Not a fan of Teddy or the offensive coaching but those issues against the Chargers were on Lock. I do not know what he is doing with his time on the bench but it does not appear he is improving as a QB.
            Let's Ride!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by CasualFan View Post
              Bridgewater's CPOE and EPA stats for 2021 are near the top of the league (#2 for CPOE, 7th for EPA/play), and it's not due to a dink-and-dunk style, as he ranks 13th in air yards at 8.2. (Jared Goff is at the bottom at 6.3, by way of comparison.) He's still #7 in CPOE if filtered for garbage time (< 10% win probability), and 12th in EPA/play.

              Lock's 2020 stats: 38th in CPOE, 32nd in EPA/play. But his air yards ranked #2 in the league at 9.0, so there's "talent," if that's how such a thing is to be measured.

              https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
              https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EuSDBeeXYAA2F9S-768x768.png



              Click image for larger version Name:	Bridgewater CPOE vs EPA 2021.png Views:	0 Size:	263.4 KB ID:	8387082

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              • I told yall about lock... i was in that "Drew Lock" thread saying for years what he was and will be and that we were wasting time.
                Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

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                • Originally posted by Ear2dastreets View Post
                  I told yall about lock... i was in that "Drew Lock" thread saying for years what he was and will be and that we were wasting time.
                  You also told us the Bronco had no chance to beat the Chargers. And just for the record, I'm telling you now the Bears are wasting their time with Justin "Out in Right" Fields.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by CasualFan View Post
                    Bridgewater's CPOE and EPA stats for 2021 are near the top of the league (#2 for CPOE, 7th for EPA/play), and it's not due to a dink-and-dunk style, as he ranks 13th in air yards at 8.2. (Jared Goff is at the bottom at 6.3, by way of comparison.) He's still #7 in CPOE if filtered for garbage time (< 10% win probability), and 12th in EPA/play.

                    Lock's 2020 stats: 38th in CPOE, 32nd in EPA/play. But his air yards ranked #2 in the league at 9.0, so there's "talent," if that's how such a thing is to be measured.

                    https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
                    https://www.the33rdteam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/EuSDBeeXYAA2F9S-768x768.png


                    Click image for larger version Name:	Bridgewater CPOE vs EPA 2021.png Views:	0 Size:	263.4 KB ID:	8387082

                    Click image for larger version Name:	Lock CPOE vs EPA 2020.png Views:	0 Size:	141.4 KB ID:	8387083
                    Wow.....Teddy is better than Tom Brady, Mac Jones, and Josh Allen.

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                    • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post

                      With Teddy’s great stats no wonder the offense is a scoring Juggernaut!
                      The stats are saying that, accounting for the rest of the variables that are beyond Teddy's control (blocking, skill position guys getting open, drops, injuries, play calling, run support, penalties, quality of opposition, etc) he's playing very well.

                      The stats are suggesting that Teddy's efficient play is elevating our offense from potentially catastrophically horrible to merely mediocre. The stats on those charts are relative to expectation; ie, how the average player would be expected to perform in the same context.

                      The charts are as much an indictment of the rest of our offense as they are an endorsement of Bridgewater.
                      Anyone seen Jake Plummer?

                      Comment


                      • I have given up my seat on the Drew Lock Bandwagon. He has had a few good opportunities to prove his worth, and hasn't gotten the job done. He probably dreams at night about Being the Chiefs back up QB and carrying PM's jock around for him.

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                        • Originally posted by Capt. Jack View Post
                          I have given up my seat on the Drew Lock Bandwagon. He has had a few good opportunities to prove his worth, and hasn't gotten the job done. He probably dreams at night about Being the Chiefs back up QB and carrying PM's jock around for him.
                          Feels so bad to kick a man when he's down but Lock just doesn't learn. I can only think he was trying to prove (either to the Broncos, or more likely to his next team) that he has something special to offer. It didn't work.

                          At least it made some reconsider their view of Teddy. He may not ever be great but he's solid, and he doesn't give the ball to the other team!

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                          • Originally posted by gtown53

                            Lock will be cut from any team that has the stupidity to sign him, before next season starts. Lock will end up in the dustbin of NFL history, alongside Lynch and Osweiler and Tebow and Penrose, ad infinitum..... ....
                            ... Jacky Lee, Mickey Slaughter, John McCormick, Max Choboian, Scott Glacken, Steve Tensi, Pete Liske, Alan Pastrana, Steve Ramsey, Don Horn, ...
                            "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

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                            • Originally posted by GMTD View Post

                              Feels so bad to kick a man when he's down but Lock just doesn't learn. I can only think he was trying to prove (either to the Broncos, or more likely to his next team) that he has something special to offer. It didn't work.

                              At least it made some reconsider their view of Teddy. He may not ever be great but he's solid, and he doesn't give the ball to the other team!
                              Teddy still sucks, solidly sucks.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Locutus View Post

                                Teddy still sucks, solidly sucks.
                                ^^ This ^^

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