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  • ^^^^^this.

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    • Originally posted by Locutus View Post

      Teddy still sucks, solidly sucks.
      Only viable option we have

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      • Originally posted by famicommander View Post

        The stats are saying that, accounting for the rest of the variables that are beyond Teddy's control (blocking, skill position guys getting open, drops, injuries, play calling, run support, penalties, quality of opposition, etc) he's playing very well.

        The stats are suggesting that Teddy's efficient play is elevating our offense from potentially catastrophically horrible to merely mediocre. The stats on those charts are relative to expectation; ie, how the average player would be expected to perform in the same context.

        The charts are as much an indictment of the rest of our offense as they are an endorsement of Bridgewater.
        This doesn’t account for the defenses he played. Look at the wins/losses and the defenses of those teams. For example he had one of his best games against the Jets with the 32nd ranked defense in PA/G.

        Also your analysis doesn’t account for late game garbage stats where he accumulates a lot of completions/yards. Sure those count in his overall stats but he played poorly for a good portion of those games. He also accumulates completions behind the sticks on a lot of third downs which don’t convert.

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        • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post

          This doesn’t account for the defenses he played. Look at the wins/losses and the defenses of those teams. For example he had one of his best games against the Jets with the 32nd ranked defense in PA/G.

          Also your analysis doesn’t account for late game garbage stats where he accumulates a lot of completions/yards. Sure those count in his overall stats but he played poorly for a good portion of those games. He also accumulates completions behind the sticks on a lot of third downs which don’t convert.
          Actually, he did address both of these points.

          Regarding garbage time stats - In his post with the chart graphics, he mentioned that when filtered for garbage time stats, he went from 2nd in CPOE and 7th in EPA/play to 7th in CPOE and 12th in EPA/play. So you

          Regarding defenses he faced, the post you ignored because he mentioned Elway, he talked about Bridgewater's DYAR and DVOA stats, which are defense adjusted. (DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value over Average). He is 11th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA.

          Thanks, Reid!
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          • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

            Actually, he did address both of these points.

            Regarding garbage time stats - In his post with the chart graphics, he mentioned that when filtered for garbage time stats, he went from 2nd in CPOE and 7th in EPA/play to 7th in CPOE and 12th in EPA/play. So you

            Regarding defenses he faced, the post you ignored because he mentioned Elway, he talked about Bridgewater's DYAR and DVOA stats, which are defense adjusted. (DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value over Average). He is 11th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA.
            I was referring to defenses as the relationship to the wins/losses, not averages. Also, those averages are skewed with better performances against defenses like the Jets.

            Those stats are nice to look at but they don’t account for the impact of every play based on the situation in the game, for example throwing an inaccurate pass for an INT to lose the game in Pittsburgh. That shows up as one INT in his stats but it had a disproportionately negative impact on the outcome.

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            • Originally posted by Locutus View Post

              Teddy still sucks, solidly sucks.
              Lets see, there are 32 NFL teams, therefore just 32 starting QBs. That's it.

              In an NFL.com QB Index, Teddy is 15th this week. I do not want to blow that out of proportion, and state that Teddy Bridgewater is currently the 15th best QB on the planet, but it does give credence that he is somewhere close to the middle of the pack (of starters), which in my mind does not deserve your description.

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              • Originally posted by Locutus View Post

                Teddy still sucks, solidly sucks.
                11 games. 2,500 yards. 15TDs. 5 INTs. Rating just under 99. You may not like him but his production is solid by any definition.

                The problem we have here is that the conventional wisdom was that he would be rubbish or a pure game manager. He's been a bit better than that and some people are struggling to deal with it (in a good way - everyone wants us to win).

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                • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post

                  I was referring to defenses as the relationship to the wins/losses, not averages. Also, those averages are skewed with better performances against defenses like the Jets.

                  Those stats are nice to look at but they don’t account for the impact of every play based on the situation in the game, for example throwing an inaccurate pass for an INT to lose the game in Pittsburgh. That shows up as one INT in his stats but it had a disproportionately negative impact on the outcome.
                  That is literally exactly what those stats are meant to do.

                  THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION:


                  DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

                  THE SHORT VERSION:


                  DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.
                  https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
                  Thanks, Reid!
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                  Click on my sig to read JetRazor's and my story. Or PM me with any questions.

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                  • How quickly we forget just how bad Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskell, Brandon Allen, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, and Trevor Siemian were when we saw last them taking snaps for the Broncos.

                    I know people in this town are used to the likes of Manning, Plummer, and Elway but those guys ain't walking through the door. It's hard to accept that a dead-average NFL quarterback is our best option, but that's what Teddy is on both counts. I'd take him over any other Broncos QB in my lifetime besides those three guys. I'd take Bridgewater over Griese, Orton, or Cutler all day.
                    Anyone seen Jake Plummer?

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                    • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

                      Actually, he did address both of these points.

                      Regarding garbage time stats - In his post with the chart graphics, he mentioned that when filtered for garbage time stats, he went from 2nd in CPOE and 7th in EPA/play to 7th in CPOE and 12th in EPA/play. So you

                      Regarding defenses he faced, the post you ignored because he mentioned Elway, he talked about Bridgewater's DYAR and DVOA stats, which are defense adjusted. (DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value over Average). He is 11th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA.
                      It is up to us to find relevant facts about Teddy Bridgewater, and up to some others to just shoot them down.

                      Early on:

                      Passer Rate - who cares
                      Completion % - so what
                      Low # of picks - but they all cost us big time
                      Wins - he had little to do with them
                      Most stats - but he was no good on certain downs, or in certain games, or whatever

                      But lets never forget that one critical stat that it all boils down to:

                      Tackles - which by the way, can never be forgotten, even if a player plays injured, or throws his body to gain a yard, or whatever comes down the road. Look it up....under most important QB stat. In fact, it's often the differentiator when it come to Hall of Fame entry. On the other hand, returning after 19 months from a gruesome, possibly career ending injury is not valued by anyone.

                      Click image for larger version  Name:	tumblr_mmtk6rDjQk1reur44o1_500.gif Views:	0 Size:	1.52 MB ID:	8387282

                      Marilyn knew that!

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                      • Originally posted by famicommander View Post
                        How quickly we forget just how bad Drew Lock, Brett Rypien, Jeff Driskell, Brandon Allen, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, and Trevor Siemian were when we saw last them taking snaps for the Broncos.

                        I know people in this town are used to the likes of Manning, Plummer, and Elway but those guys ain't walking through the door. It's hard to accept that a dead-average NFL quarterback is our best option, but that's what Teddy is on both counts. I'd take him over any other Broncos QB in my lifetime besides those three guys. I'd take Bridgewater over Griese, Orton, or Cutler all day.
                        I would maybe take Cutler over Bridgewater, but only maybe.

                        Other than that, agreed 100%.
                        Thanks, Reid!
                        sigpic
                        Click on my sig to read JetRazor's and my story. Or PM me with any questions.

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                        • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

                          I would maybe take Cutler over Bridgewater, but only maybe.

                          Other than that, agreed 100%.
                          Cutler was a human turnover machine (Cutler had 61 combined picks and fumbles in 37 games as a Bronco), not super accurate, and a serial sideline pouter. Absurd arm talent but not much else.

                          Not to mention benching Plummer for Cutler took us from first place to out of the playoffs for several consecutive years until Tebow of all people.
                          famicommander
                          Starter
                          Last edited by famicommander; 12-01-2021, 03:09 PM.
                          Anyone seen Jake Plummer?

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                          • Originally posted by GMTD View Post

                            11 games. 2,500 yards. 15TDs. 5 INTs. Rating just under 99. You may not like him but his production is solid by any definition.

                            The problem we have here is that the conventional wisdom was that he would be rubbish or a pure game manager. He's been a bit better than that and some people are struggling to deal with it (in a good way - everyone wants us to win).
                            And those numbers to me mean either the defense has been horrible or the offensive playcalling is terrible. Im leaning more to the latter...

                            Glen Haven Fire

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                            • Originally posted by famicommander View Post

                              Cutler was a human turnover machine (Cutler had 61 combined picks and fumbles in 37 games as a Bronco), not super accurate, and a serial sideline pouter. Absurd arm talent but not much else.

                              Not to mention benching Plummer for Cutler took us from first place to out of the playoffs for several consecutive years until Tebow of all people.
                              I'm very aware of the arguments on both sides regarding Cutler/Plummer and Cutler/McD.

                              Really don't need to rehash it all, but I understand where you are coming from but also stand by my opinion.
                              Thanks, Reid!
                              sigpic
                              Click on my sig to read JetRazor's and my story. Or PM me with any questions.

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                              • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

                                That is literally exactly what those stats are meant to do.



                                https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
                                No, not with respect to the flow of a game and the impact of every play. Those stats throw everything into a blender smoothing out the impact on a game. For example, take the play when Bridgewater took a ridiculously bad sack when Williams put the offense 1st and goal inside the 5 - following a penalty Bridgewater drifted back casually and instead of throwing the ball away he took a horrible sack. Plenty of time to throw the ball away but he didn’t, despite all the experience. That play had a significant impact on the game. So all those stats blended together seem fine without knowing how plays like that sack impacted that game.

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