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Thank goodness we gave up on Lock after 1.5 seasons

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  • Originally posted by GMTD View Post

    11 games. 2,500 yards. 15TDs. 5 INTs. Rating just under 99. You may not like him but his production is solid by any definition.

    The problem we have here is that the conventional wisdom was that he would be rubbish or a pure game manager. He's been a bit better than that and some people are struggling to deal with it (in a good way - everyone wants us to win).
    1 of those 5 INTs was a bad throw in the end zone to end a game with a loss. 3 of those cost the Broncos a loss against a division opponent (oh and he also turned the ball over on a fumble giving that opponent good field position in that game). Another INT cost the offense a TD in a game lost by 3 points. Those stats look nice until you look a little closer at the impact.

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    • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post

      1 of those 5 INTs was a bad throw in the end zone to end a game with a loss. 3 of those cost the Broncos a loss against a division opponent (oh and he also turned the ball over on a fumble giving that opponent good field position in that game). Another INT cost the offense a TD in a game lost by 3 points. Those stats look nice until you look a little closer at the impact.
      Noted but that's likely to be similar for all QBs. There's rarely a good INT or fumble. Teddy has fewer of them than most.

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      • Originally posted by GMTD View Post

        Noted but that's likely to be similar for all QBs. There's rarely a good INT or fumble. Teddy has fewer of them than most.
        Probably the only “good” INT would be 3rd (or 4th down) and long are when the odds were low of completion and ultimately be a punt - going deep to draw a penalty. The difference with some QBs is the ability to overcome an INT with scoring. In Teddy’s case it’s difficult for him to makeup for mistakes.

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        • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post

          No, not with respect to the flow of a game and the impact of every play. Those stats throw everything into a blender smoothing out the impact on a game. For example, take the play when Bridgewater took a ridiculously bad sack when Williams put the offense 1st and goal inside the 5 - following a penalty Bridgewater drifted back casually and instead of throwing the ball away he took a horrible sack. Plenty of time to throw the ball away but he didn’t, despite all the experience. That play had a significant impact on the game. So all those stats blended together seem fine without knowing how plays like that sack impacted that game.
          You're moving the goalposts because you were proven wrong.

          You said

          This doesn’t account for the defenses he played. Look at the wins/losses and the defenses of those teams. For example he had one of his best games against the Jets with the 32nd ranked defense in PA/G.

          Also your analysis doesn’t account for late game garbage stats where he accumulates a lot of completions/yards. Sure those count in his overall stats but he played poorly for a good portion of those games. He also accumulates completions behind the sticks on a lot of third downs which don’t convert.
          Both of these points were addressed, so you moved the goalposts again to 'He throws INTs that are bad'. Which you won't allow anyone to refute by pointing out that is the case for literally every QB.

          You reject every objective, factual point given to you, and rely only on your own subjective opinion. That's fine, but I'm not sure what the point is. You're not going to change your mind or admit being wrong even when proven wrong, and you're not going to change anyone's mind with only subjective opinions that don't take into account realism (e.g. all QBs throw interceptions, and almost all interceptions are bad)... so why are you bothering, honestly?

          If you want a breakdown of Teddy's performance that takes into account the situation on a play by play basis, you're looking for PFF. They break down individual plays and give grades based on everything, including whether or not an INT was particularly detrimental. I am not paying PFF to see how they have him ranked, but I bet it's higher than you'd like to give him credit for.

          Last edited by LordTrychon; 12-01-2021, 03:15 PM.

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          • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

            You're moving the goalposts because you were proven wrong.

            You said



            Both of these points were addressed, so you moved the goalposts again to 'He throws INTs that are bad'. Which you won't allow anyone to refute by pointing out that is the case for literally every QB.

            You reject every objective, factual point given to you, and rely only on your own subjective opinion. That's fine, but I'm not sure what the point is. You're not going to change your mind or admit being wrong even when proven wrong, and you're not going to change anyone's mind with only subjective opinions that don't take into account realism (e.g. all QBs throw interceptions, and almost all interceptions are bad)... so why are you bothering, honestly?

            If you want a breakdown of Teddy's performance that takes into account the situation on a play by play basis, you're looking for PFF. They break down individual plays and give grades based on everything, including whether or not an INT was particularly detrimental. I am not paying PFF to see how they have him ranked, but I bet it's higher than you'd like to give him credit for.
            Bolding sentences in an attempt to remove context doesn’t actually remove context, which was clear with respect to defenses in relation to wins/losses. If anything, you jumped into the conversation too quickly to make a point without considering the context.

            As for INTs some are worse than others and some quarterbacks have the ability to overcome with more production. Just saying “He’s only had 5 INTs” doesn’t account for the fact that three games were lost on those INTs. Since you like comparing different quarterbacks, Mac Jones had 3 games with INTs and won all three games. Teddy lost every game in which he had INTs.

            Those PFF rankings aren’t going to account for him bailing on a tackle to give the defense a chance to stop the Eagles from scoring. That single play where he failed to be a football player swung the momentum of that game in a huge way. PFF, Football Outsiders, whoever you want to throw out there - can’t account for plays like that.

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            • Broncos need to pursue a Young QB with talent and a head coach that will build around him and nurture him. Teddy is a solid backup but not a starter.
              Manning to Thomas ev'ry day, all day.

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              • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

                If you want a breakdown of Teddy's performance that takes into account the situation on a play by play basis, you're looking for PFF. They break down individual plays and give grades based on everything, including whether or not an INT was particularly detrimental. I am not paying PFF to see how they have him ranked, but I bet it's higher than you'd like to give him credit for.
                I do happen to pay PFF, and so here's how they rank him on DYAR (#11 in the league) and DVOA (#9 in the league). And I second your other points too.

                Note that these metrics do not claim that Bridgewater is working miracles (which no one is claiming). These stats still rank him last in the AFC West on DYAR and barely above Mahomes and Herbert on DVOA. But the good news is that the gap doesn't look insurmountably large, and the data strongly support the thesis that Bridgewater is a reasonably competent quarterback, all things considered. Given that Bridgewater is being paid much less than those other quarterbacks, compensating with a better defense, running game, etc. is not beyond reasonable hope.

                For good measure, we can also add NFL.com's ranking of the quarterbacks, where they rate Bridgewater #15 in the league:

                https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-inde...eason-rankings.

                The coaches and his teammates clearly see something in Bridgewater's play that they like, which these statistics strongly suggest is real. Why, objectively, is that wrong?

                https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021

                Click image for larger version  Name:	Bridgewater DVOA and DYAR.png Views:	1 Size:	123.4 KB ID:	8387326
                Last edited by CasualFan; 12-01-2021, 10:04 PM.

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                • With such ‘impressive’ DYAR and DVOA with Bridgewater the offense is 21st in scoring and right where it was with Lock last season. Bridgewater has been sacked 27 times, near worst among quarterbacks.

                  His INTs despite being low were directly attributed to 3 losses. What we’ll hear about the sacks is that it’s because he plays behind a poor O-line - somehow the line is bad with sacks but not an issue with his good stats. In other words Bridgewater can overcome a bad line when the stat favors his performance but it’s the line’s fault for sacks.

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                  • Originally posted by Fantaztic7 View Post
                    With such ‘impressive’ DYAR and DVOA with Bridgewater the offense is 21st in scoring and right where it was with Lock last season. Bridgewater has been sacked 27 times, near worst among quarterbacks.

                    His INTs despite being low were directly attributed to 3 losses. What we’ll hear about the sacks is that it’s because he plays behind a poor O-line - somehow the line is bad with sacks but not an issue with his good stats. In other words Bridgewater can overcome a bad line when the stat favors his performance but it’s the line’s fault for sacks.
                    We were 28th in scoring last year with Lock.

                    I personally don't put that entirely on Lock, but by your logic, maybe we should.

                    Nobody is arguing that his INTs have been good, or that losing games because of them is good.

                    Nobody is arguing that he is a player who hasn't had any games where his play has been a part of the cause for the team's loss. That's a pretty big ask of any QB, and to find a QB like that, you're looking for a top 5 QB, if not top 2 or 3. Nobody is saying Bridgewater is anything like that.

                    Nobody is saying his sacks are all on the oline. In fact, it's something I've flat out said he needs to do better on, and I've seen others say the same. The fact that the OLine is struggling in pass protection is very much chicken and egg. Teddy's partially at fault for their pass protection ratings, and they're partially at fault for his sack numbers.

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                    • Originally posted by LordTrychon View Post

                      We were 28th in scoring last year with Lock.

                      I personally don't put that entirely on Lock, but by your logic, maybe we should.

                      Nobody is arguing that his INTs have been good, or that losing games because of them is good.

                      Nobody is arguing that he is a player who hasn't had any games where his play has been a part of the cause for the team's loss. That's a pretty big ask of any QB, and to find a QB like that, you're looking for a top 5 QB, if not top 2 or 3. Nobody is saying Bridgewater is anything like that.

                      Nobody is saying his sacks are all on the oline. In fact, it's something I've flat out said he needs to do better on, and I've seen others say the same. The fact that the OLine is struggling in pass protection is very much chicken and egg. Teddy's partially at fault for their pass protection ratings, and they're partially at fault for his sack numbers.
                      2020 per game scoring was 20.2 vs 20.7 this year. Bridgewater is a mediocre to below average quarterback. Some of the stats can make him look above average however we haven’t seen any tangible improvement in scoring. One area Lock was clearly worse was turnovers. Bridgewater depends on the defense playing at a high level, along with getting the most out of Gordon/Williams. If everything around Teddy is near perfect, we have a chance at scratching out a few more wins. I had the team at 9-8 with a 2 game swing to the down side. Hoping the team doesn’t let down like they did after the win in Dallas.

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                      • Those few minutes of Drew before the half Sunday told me all I need to know.

                        It's broken.
                        [sigpic

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                        • 1 medium cabbage
                          3 medium carrots, peeled and shredded
                          1/2 cup loosely packed fresh parsley leaves, coarsely chopped
                          1 cup mayonnaise,
                          2 tablespoons apple cider vinegar or more to taste
                          2 tablespoons Dijon mustard or coarse ground mustard
                          1 teaspoon celery seeds
                          1/4 teaspoon fine sea salt or more to taste
                          1/4 teaspoon fresh ground black pepper or more to taste

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                          • Originally posted by Mellow Mood View Post
                            1 medium cabbage
                            3 medium carrots, peeled and shredded
                            1/2 cup loosely packed fresh parsley leaves, coarsely chopped
                            1 cup mayonnaise,
                            2 tablespoons apple cider vinegar or more to taste
                            2 tablespoons Dijon mustard or coarse ground mustard
                            1 teaspoon celery seeds
                            1/4 teaspoon fine sea salt or more to taste
                            1/4 teaspoon fresh ground black pepper or more to taste
                            Sounds interesting... what exactly is it
                            sigpic

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                            • SLAW!!!!!!

                              hahahaha

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