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Is Plummer REally going to be better?

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  • Is Plummer REally going to be better?

    I know I've heard this about a thousand times already. I've probably made the statement myself... "Plummer will be better next season with another year under his belt."

    How do we figure him to be better? More games won? He won 81.8% of the games he started last season. If he plays an entire season thats 12.8 wins.Do we expect more than 12 or 13 wins?? (I know that just calculating out 80% of a 16 game season isn't exactly precision on figuring how many wins he would have won had he been healthy for all 16 games, but it makes my point for now)

    Do we expect him to have more passing yards? He completed 189 of 302 passes for 2,182 yds. If he played 16 games, that would be about 3173 yds. Do we expect him to have a better TD to INT rate? He had 15 touchdowns, with seven interceptions. He ranks fourth in the AFC (5th NFL) in passer rating (91.2) and ranks seventh in the AFC in touchdown passes, despite missing four games.

    Jake had a 62.6 completion percentage, that was the best mark of his seven-year career. Do we expect him to surpass that again?

    I know I would like him to remain healthy, but he hasn't had a history of missing games. So I'm optimistic about him staying healthy. But what more do we expect from him? If he stays healthy, do we expect MORE than a 91.2 QB rating? Do we expect more than 200 yds passing per game? Do we expect more than a 81.8% win rate? Do we expect him to have better than a 62.6 completion percentage? WHAT is going to be better? Do we expect him to win more playoff games? If he surpasses the numbers above, wouldn't he be doing his part in that already?

    He also rushed 37 times for 205 yds. (5.5) and three touchdowns, do we expect more than this? Or do we just expect more since he will play more games (optimistically speaking).

    TELL ME, anyone.. everyone. When we say that Jake will have a better season with another year under his belt in the system... WHAT are we saying will be better?
    Last edited by Ravage!!!; 06-04-2004, 06:44 PM.

  • #2
    Will he be better
    The answer is of course No
    He lost his security blankets of Mccafrey, Sharpe, and Portis.
    As much as i love Lelie if he doesnt perform this could be a long year for Broncos fans.
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    • #3
      McCaffrey was no security blanket for Plummer. Plummer won games when Portis was hurt. But we didn't win when Plummer was hurt and Portis was in the backfield. So the whole theory that Plummer NEEDS Portis to succeed doesn't hold water.

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      • #4
        When I think of better I mean more of a chance to use the passing game as a truly viable weapon, where Jake is the center of the team and responsible for the performance output.

        Jake did great, but the focus was on Portis who had a phenomenal year. I'd like to see Jake have a 300 yard game. Overall I was happy with his performance, his escapability. I want to see Jake become more of a passing threat. Jake had a great rating last year, but some of the passing game was just awful, like he was throwing lame ducks out there. His overall decision making was good and showed in his int number.

        I want it so when Jake takes the field, the defense knows that they have to watch out for huim, not like last year when they knew that Portis was the threat.
        The Game Day Thread: Year 17 in progress!!! sigpic

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        • #5
          i'm not so sure jake will be better, as a qb,,if the play calling, and the routs run by recievers with jake doing his part, the qb position will be fine,,,i do remember watching the game with the cards the year before last and thinking ti mysael " damn, this guy is just what the broncos need',,and once i heard that he came to our team, i was just stoked.
          our running game will detirmine what jake is able to do as a passer,,,with anderson, quinton, and bell, not to forget hurst,,there should be enough play action to free up recievers for the long ball,
          sept 12 , i just cant wait !

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          • #6
            Is Plummer Really going to be better?

            What I expect is that with another year in the system under his belt, he will be better in the late game, particularly two minute drill when we are behind. I don't really worry about Portis. I am sure we will have someone who gets their 1000+ yards. I loved watching Eddie Mac in the past but he really wasn't that effective last season. He probably should have retired the year before. Lelie can and must step up and if we don't have Sharp, we have a new pass-catching tight end in Byron Chamberlain. He's not Sharp, but he can block about as well as Sharp did and has good hands.

            So, with all other things being approximately equal, the biggest difference in Plummer is going to be his comfort with the system, the two minute drill and getting the job done when the game is tight.

            But, it's not going to mean much what Plummer himself does if the defense doesn't improve on take-aways.
            You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

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            • #7
              Last year, he posted better numbers than tom brady, super bowl champ, which is quite amazing considering the pats didnt have much of a running game.

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              • #8
                Approximately Equal?

                I don't see how things will be approximately equal. We will have another running back get 1000+ yards? If that's all we get, we'll be lucky to break .500, because our offense is centered around the rushing game. You'll need someone who can get 1500+ yards before I'd say we're approximately equal in that area. Sharpe hauled in over 60 passes last year, which is a modest year for him. Before we're approximately equal in that area, we'll need someone to make up for all those receptions. With what we have right now, that's questionable, so even though Plummer knows the system better than he did last year, if nobody's open, and making catches except Smith, and nobody takes pressure off Plummer by carrying the load on the ground, it doesn't do us any good. The last time we didn't have at least 2 stand-out receivers and a 1500 yard rusher, we ended up 8-8.
                "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

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                • #9
                  Re: Approximately Equal?

                  Originally posted by Lomax
                  I don't see how things will be approximately equal. We will have another running back get 1000+ yards? If that's all we get, we'll be lucky to break .500, because our offense is centered around the rushing game. You'll need someone who can get 1500+ yards before I'd say we're approximately equal in that area. Sharpe hauled in over 60 passes last year, which is a modest year for him. Before we're approximately equal in that area, we'll need someone to make up for all those receptions. With what we have right now, that's questionable, so even though Plummer knows the system better than he did last year, if nobody's open, and making catches except Smith, and nobody takes pressure off Plummer by carrying the load on the ground, it doesn't do us any good. The last time we didn't have at least 2 stand-out receivers and a 1500 yard rusher, we ended up 8-8.
                  Rod Smith can take those and get 100 catches. Or LELIE!!

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                  • #10
                    You'll need someone who can get 1500+

                    We don't NEED a 1500 yrd rusher to be successful. Its a bonus to have, but thats not a magic number. Portis rushed for 1500 yrds his first year, and we didn't go to the playoffs. Looks like what we needed was solid play from the QB position more than the 1500yrds rushing to get to the playoffs.

                    Sharpe hauled in over 60 passes last year, which is a modest year for him.

                    Thats more like an average year for him over the last few.

                    Before we're approximately equal in that area, we'll need someone to make up for all those receptions.

                    I know what you are saying...but you are forgetting about the TE's we do put into the lineup. We did have TE's go to the Pro-bowl when Sharpe was in Baltimore. We don't need ONE guy to step it up and catch 60 more passes to make up for Sharpe.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Approximately Equal?

                      Originally posted by Lomax
                      I don't see how things will be approximately equal. We will have another running back get 1000+ yards? If that's all we get, we'll be lucky to break .500, because our offense is centered around the rushing game. You'll need someone who can get 1500+ yards before I'd say we're approximately equal in that area. Sharpe hauled in over 60 passes last year, which is a modest year for him. Before we're approximately equal in that area, we'll need someone to make up for all those receptions. With what we have right now, that's questionable, so even though Plummer knows the system better than he did last year, if nobody's open, and making catches except Smith, and nobody takes pressure off Plummer by carrying the load on the ground, it doesn't do us any good. The last time we didn't have at least 2 stand-out receivers and a 1500 yard rusher, we ended up 8-8.
                      I'm not arguing that we have to have a strong running game to maintain control of the ball and give our defense time to rest. But some things to remember is that removing Portis from the offense doesn't mean 0 yards rushing or no ball control. As has already been pointed out, Portis got over 1500 yards his first season and we didn't go to the playoffs. As for that 8-8 record, please remember that during Brian Griese's final season, no less than four times he brought the team from behind to take the lead in the final quarter, only to watch the defense give up position, drop interceptions and allow a last second field goal to lose those games. Had we won even two of those games, we would have been at 10-6 and we could have made the playoffs.

                      Shanahan and Bowlen have done a lot to get us a good defense and a good quarterback. Plummer was out four games with injuries and we lost three of those games, even though we had Portis playing for nearly all of them. Portis is not the offense. Plummer came back and without Portis, knocked off Indianapolis with the backup running back. Mike Anderson rushed for 1500 yards in his rookie year. Garrison Hearst is a seasoned back capable of getting tough yards. And we have two very explosive young runners in Bell and Q. The ground game will be there.

                      Likewise, I'm not concerned with the tight end. Sharpe is a Hall of Famer at the position, but he's not as quick as he was, his blocking is adequate but his hands are good. In that sense, Sharpe in his current condition has one thing on Byron Chamberlain: more experience. Chamberlain can block as well and has good hands. Any dropoff in the tight end receiving will be minimal. Losing Sharpe's 60 catches doesn't mean 0 catches at the TE posn. It may mean less catches there, but those can be made up elsewhere, if they even need to be.

                      I'm more concerned with Lelie stepping up and finding that elusive third WR and a decent backup QB than I am the running game. I think Ashlie will step up his game this year but I'm not so sure about the third receiver. I also fear what happens if Jake goes down with an injury again. I just don't think Danny Kanell is the man to backup the Snake. He's not mobile enough and doesn't release the ball fast enough. Because he's not getting the snaps, he's more likely to hang the ball out too far and get a receiver hurt on a pass play. His arm is more like Griese's: he can do the dink and dunk but not accurate over 30 yards, so defenses can "cheat up" on him without fear of being burned deep.

                      I'm more concerned with the Broncos defense getting some takeaways for a change, recovering fumbles and picking some passes. We were either last or next to last in those categories the past two seasons. We pursue well and we hit hard, but we get the ball back on downs or after punts and often don't have good field position to work from. An improvement in takeaways would make a major difference in the amount of catches and yards needed to score the same or more points as last season.
                      You Tell 'em Justice is coming. You tell 'em I'M coming!sigpic

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                      • #12
                        There are two main aspects of Denver's Offense that people can only presume will be insufficient this year:

                        The running game, now that Portis is gone.
                        The passing game, now that Sharpe is gone.

                        They lend to SpEcUlAtIoN that Denver will have a much weaker offense this year, in spite of historical evidence to the contrary.

                        Clinton Portis is a very good RB, in his 2 seasons at Denver he carried the ball A LOT. But did he carry the ball so often because he was GOOD, or because he was DENVER'S STARTING TAILBACK?

                        Over the last several seasons (before Portis) that responsibilty was given to every RB starting for the Broncos. And Denver's running game was successful. Portis didn't make it that way, and it is unlikely that it will faulter without him. Both Anderson and Hurst have proven they can get the job done (though not in the same offenses). And when Q was needed to fill that role briefly last season, he did fine too. Bell hasn't even played a preseason game yet, so before people start criticizing his abilities, they should at least see how he does in a game or two.

                        History would indicate that Denver's running game will continue to be successful, even without Clinton Portis. True it may not be as effective but it should hardly be seen as insufficient. They'll figure out how to get it done. If their opponents don't respect Denver's running game- they will lose under it.

                        Concerning the issue of Sharpe's retirement, we're looking at a similar analysis- Sharpe is the greatest TE of all time. In Denver, he caught a lot of passes and made a lot of touchdowns. But when he went to Baltimore, Denver's TEs (Chamberlin and Carswell) still managed to catch enough passes and score enough touchdowns to earn a pro bowl selection. And looking at Baltimore, Heap made his breakout year... when Sharpe went back to Denver. True, he was a high draft pick for the Ravens- which would indicate that he already had some talent for the position. But my point is, Baltimore had a way for filling the gap left by Sharpe- and Denver did the same when it had to. Now they'll have to do that again.

                        What's funny is people may actually think that won't happen.

                        But back to the topic of this thread- will Jake Plummer actually IMPROVE over last year's performance? Concidering that last season was his first in this scheme, there is definately that possibility. But remember, Gresie had a great first/second year too and then went downhill from there. Plummer was brought to Denver to fill the role of a more mobile and improvisational QB- to make plays when nothing was there. If those are truely his best qualities, under popular speculation he's likely to have more opportunities to do just that.

                        Last season, dispite having Jake, Portis, and Sharpe, Denver lost a few games that it should have won. If this year Jake is able to make some clutch plays and help Denver win those types of games, than I for one would say he's better than last year, dispite the final W/L record, and all the QB stats. But win or lose, he's not going to do it alone.
                        Last edited by Mile High Jedi; 06-05-2004, 01:28 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ravage!!!
                          You'll need someone who can get 1500+

                          We don't NEED a 1500 yrd rusher to be successful. Its a bonus to have, but thats not a magic number. Portis rushed for 1500 yrds his first year, and we didn't go to the playoffs. Looks like what we needed was solid play from the QB position more than the 1500yrds rushing to get to the playoffs.

                          Sharpe hauled in over 60 passes last year, which is a modest year for him.

                          Thats more like an average year for him over the last few.

                          Before we're approximately equal in that area, we'll need someone to make up for all those receptions.

                          I know what you are saying...but you are forgetting about the TE's we do put into the lineup. We did have TE's go to the Pro-bowl when Sharpe was in Baltimore. We don't need ONE guy to step it up and catch 60 more passes to make up for Sharpe.
                          I'm not saying 1500 yards gets you into the playoffs. I'm saying that's what we need to have a good season. That's not to say that as long as we hit that mark, we're in the playoffs. We were, however, above .500 that year, despite Oakland being a better overall team. We can't rely on numbers that would be considered good for most other teams that DON'T rely on big rushing to win games. 4ypc and 1300 yards won't cut it for this team, that much I guarantee you.

                          Wasn't the 2000 season, the season that Carswell made the pro bowl, the same season that McCaffrey and Smith each got 100 receptions? What happened to the TE production when McCaffrey got hurt? I'd say it wasn't the system, but two awesome WRs that gave our TEs the opportunity to shine in Sharpe's absense. Without that, do you dispute that it's unlikely that we can get that type of production without another big threat at wideout? To have success at the TE position, we need big output from the #2 receiver, not just average performance. And we need success at TE more than anywhere else to keep defenses from keying on the rushing game.
                          "Pey-Pey to Bay-Bay for the Tay Day!!"

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                          • #14
                            I think so. Shanahan's history shows that he can make an offense out of all types of different players. I think this year Plummer will be more refined and see things a little easier.

                            I'm not worried about the offense.

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                            • #15
                              Better YEP

                              Snake will have better year overall. The stats may stay the same, but his increased knowledge of the system, working with his receivers longer will give him even more confidence in knowing where they will be at any given moment. Conversely when he gets in trouble with blitzes his receivers will know how to react to him and what he is going to do. He will better in the huddle and I expect him to be THE leader on offense, the take charge guy that he was not so comfortable with last year.

                              I’m sure he’ll have much greater grasp of Mikes game plans, if he can remain healthy his TOTALS will be higher, but the averages and rating probably won’t get much higher.

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