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COMMENTARY: Tebow, a better bet than Manning

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  • COMMENTARY: Tebow, a better bet than Manning

    http://www.gazette.com/opinion/tebow...l-manning.html
    Tebow, a better bet than Manning, Statistically, Tebow's among the greats

    The facts show that Tim Tebow is off to a better start as an NFL quarterback than many of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Through his first 16 starts, Tebow won more games (9) than Peyton Manning (3), Troy Aikman (3), Steve Young (3), Aaron Rodgers (5), Matthew Stafford (6), Sam Bradford (7), Eli Manning (7), John Elway (8), and Drew Brees (8). Tebow accomplished that with a team that was 1-4 before he took over, and had won only 7 of its last 24 games.

    In his first 16 starts, Tebow led his team to a playoff victory. None of these other greats did that. In fact, it took Peyton Manning, one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, five full NFL seasons to lead his team to a playoff victory.

    In his first playoff game, Tebow threw for 316 yards in a winning effort — against the best defense in the league.

    It is so difficult for an NFL quarterback to throw for 316 yards or more in a playoff victory that Ben Roethlisberger has never done it. Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have each done it once. Tom Brady, John Elway and Joe Montana each did it twice. Eli Manning did not throw for that many yards in a playoff game until this season. And those other quarterbacks had some of the best receivers in the NFL. Tebow is also near the top in another important measure of an NFL passer, which is the number of touchdown passes per pass attempt. In his first 16 games, Tebow averaged an impressive one touchdown pass for every 23 pass attempts (1-23). The same as Peyton Manning. Better than Steve Young (1-46), John Elway (1-36), Drew Brees (1-34) and Tom Brady (1-36). And just slightly behind Aaron Rodgers (1-21), Matthew Stafford (1-21), and Eli Manning (1-21).

    Even more important is the fact that Tebow threw very few interceptions per pass attempt. Just one pick for every 43 pass attempts (1-43). That’s twice as good as Peyton Manning (1-21). Much better than Elway (1-19), Stafford (1-26) and Eli Manning (1-29). Better than Brees (1-34), Brady (1-36), Rodgers (1-39) and Bradford (1-40). This fact is particularly important, because ESPN contends that the chance of a team winning an NFL game goes down 20 percent with each interception a quarterback throws.

    Through 16 starts, Tebow has a far better touchdown pass-to-interception ratio (17 touchdowns-9 interceptions) than Peyton Manning (26-28), Brees (15-15), Stafford (28-23), Bradford (18-15), Elway (10-19), Aikman (12-25) and Young (9-16). Tebow’s rate is also better than Eli Manning’s (21-14), and the same as Aaron Rodgers’ (23-12).

    According to these key factual measures of an NFL passer (wins, touchdown passes, interceptions, playoff performance) Tebow is off to a better start as an NFL passer than many of the great passing quarterbacks in NFL history.

    Tebow’s critics do not speak of these facts. Instead, they harp on the style of his passes and his completion percentage (46 percent). That is illogical. Results are more important than style. And completion percentage is far less important than wins, touchdowns, interceptions and playoff success. That is proved by the fact that Tebow has far more wins, and a much better touchdown and interception ratio, than many quarterbacks who have a higher completion percentage.

    Peyton Manning is a certain Hall of Fame quarterback and a man of great character and integrity.

    But the facts also show, at this point, Manning is not a more effective quarterback than Tebow. Last season, Tebow started 13 games. When you compare those 13 starts to Manning’s last 13 starts, the results are almost the same.

    Over their last 13 starts, Tebow and Manning have the same winning record — 8-5. Each threw one touchdown pass for every 23 pass attempts. Tebow threw only one interception for every 51 passes. Unfortunately, Manning threw one interception for every 33 pass attempts. Tebow won one playoff game and lost the next. Manning lost his only playoff game, 17-16, to the Jets. Since Manning played these last 13 games, he has reportedly undergone three neck procedures and has not played for 14 months.

    Tebow also brings the critical advantage of mobility to the field, which Manning does not. Over their last 13 starts, Tebow ran for 681 yards and 6 touchdowns. Manning ran for 23 yards and 0 touchdowns. Manning’s lack of mobility may explain some of the difficulty he has encountered in the playoffs during his storied career.

    While it is undisputed that Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, he has only won one first-round playoff game since 2006. He has lost in the first round of the playoffs seven out of the 11 times his team has made it that far. He is 1-3 against New England in the playoffs, averaging 9 points a game in those losses.

    None of these facts are intended as a criticism of Manning. They are simply proof of the undeniable fact that injuries and age take their toll on even the greatest quarterbacks. And no quarterback who has won a Super Bowl with one team has ever won a Super Bowl with his next team.

    So the assumption that the Broncos would automatically be a better team right now under Manning is not supported by the facts. The facts show that Tebow is, by comparison, a great young quarterback with most of his career in front of him. Manning is a Hall of Fame quarterback with most of his career behind him. And over the course of their last 13 games, Tebow and Manning performed at approximately the same level.

    It would be highly illogical for the Broncos to replace Tim Tebow with Peyton Manning. Such a decision, no matter how well-intentioned, would likely undermine the franchise for years to come.

    Read more: http://www.gazette.com/articles/tebo...#ixzz1pA9alk00
    I'm kind of like a big deal... sort of like a superhero.

  • #2
    When Tim should have been getting better, he looked worse. As has been pointed out before, he really lost the final 5 games of the regular season, only by god's saving grace (not a pun) did we escape the Bears game with a win.

    Pitt D played a horrible game plan and had their DL collapse in the first part of that game, outside of that, Tim looked really bad for his last 6 of 7 games.

    I am all for developing him, but I doubt he will ever achieve a level of consistent play to win a championship. To win in the playoffs, is taking on three great teams and coming out on top. How many great teams did Tebow beat last year?
    Ravens GM 2016 - Ravens are looking to trade down 4-8 spots

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    • #3
      Originally posted by MHSalute View Post
      When Tim should have been getting better, he looked worse. As has been pointed out before, he really lost the final 5 games of the regular season, only by god's saving grace (not a pun) did we escape the Bears game with a win.

      Pitt D played a horrible game plan and had their DL collapse in the first part of that game, outside of that, Tim looked really bad for his last 6 of 7 games.

      I am all for developing him, but I doubt he will ever achieve a level of consistent play to win a championship. To win in the playoffs, is taking on three great teams and coming out on top. How many great teams did Tebow beat last year?
      Your doubt does not equal reality. You saying it does not make it so.

      The future is unwritten.

      We will only know... if Tim is given the chance he EARNED.
      - Go Broncos 2017 and Beyond! -

      Super Bowl 50 CHAMPIONS!

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      • #4
        It doesn't matter what that or any article on these boards say. Tebow will never be any good in the NFL. Well that's what a lot of people on these boards think.
        Broncos fan since Elway. Gator since birth.

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        • #5
          Not the most well-written article haha, but those stats certainly are eye-opening. As Broncos fans, we love to hate our quarterbacks; Cutler's the only one who's gotten any love. I think after he dumped us we told ourselves we'd never fall in love again or something. Lol.

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          • #6
            Doesnt matter at this point. No way we're signing PM. So yeah, Tebow gets his shot, good for him. Bad for us because we have the same team as last year with a few more rookies.
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            • #7
              Originally posted by Buck_N_Broncs View Post
              Doesnt matter at this point. No way we're signing PM. So yeah, Tebow gets his shot, good for him. Bad for us because we have the same team as last year with a few more rookies.
              No way? Aren't we one of the two top teams for him to sign with?
              RIP Darrent Williams.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by PAINTERDAVE View Post
                Your doubt does not equal reality. You saying it does not make it so.

                The future is unwritten.

                We will only know... if Tim is given the chance he EARNED.
                Me saying Tebow played his worst football over the final 5 games of the regular season is not reality? His average QB rating was 42 over those 5 weeks...during a drive for the playoffs!

                He has had time, 2 years in the nfl and constantly working on his craft...sorry, just do not think he is suddenly going to become a great passer with a couple mechanical fixes that will most likely not happen.
                Ravens GM 2016 - Ravens are looking to trade down 4-8 spots

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by xGIHavoc View Post
                  No way? Aren't we one of the two top teams for him to sign with?
                  Supposedly we are. But after meeting with Tennessee i would be shocked if he didnt announce his signing with them thursday or friday. Bud Adams is a retard and offering him part ownership (which i dont even know is legal) If Peyton passes that for Denver, well then its because he has a mistress out there lol
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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by PAINTERDAVE View Post
                    Your doubt does not equal reality. You saying it does not make it so.
                    We put up three points against KC dude. At home. When the AFCW was ours to take.
                    Three. Freakin'. Points. And we were damn lucky to get those.

                    Go re-watch that game and tell me you don't think we'd be a significantly better team with Peyton Manning.
                    Tell me you saw a quarterback under centre who deserves to be prioritised on this roster above one of the greatest to play QB.

                    You can't - and this coming from someone who very much likes Tim Tebow.
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                    2012 Adopt a Bronco : Joe Mays

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                    • #11
                      That article is awesome. There's a lot of little tidbits in there that I didn't have that perspective about. I think Tim gets a bad rap because of his playing style and not looking "pretty" like other QB's mentioned in that article. I've told people several times, it's not how pretty you look playing QB, just win ballgames.
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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by sSync View Post
                        We put up three points against KC dude. At home. When the AFCW was ours to take.
                        Three. Freakin'. Points. And we were damn lucky to get those.

                        Go re-watch that game and tell me you don't think we'd be a significantly better team with Peyton Manning.
                        Tell me you saw a quarterback under centre who deserves to be prioritised on this roster above one of the greatest to play QB.

                        You can't - and this coming from someone who very much likes Tim Tebow.
                        Thats cherry picking.

                        I could take any of Mannings playoff losses to NE and say the same.
                        I could take Tebows game against Pitt and say the opposite.

                        The article is based on first 16 games. Every QB has good and bad games.
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                        • #13
                          If you are going to mention how good he was against Pittsburg, why not mention his stellar game against New England? 9/26, 136 yards passing. The games he won? All against bad or injured teams in which he needed miracles to win. His defense also held their opponents to 16 points average in those games and he could barely keep up.
                          sigpic

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by MHSalute View Post
                            When Tim should have been getting better, he looked worse. As has been pointed out before, he really lost the final 5 games of the regular season, only by god's saving grace (not a pun) did we escape the Bears game with a win.

                            Pitt D played a horrible game plan and had their DL collapse in the first part of that game, outside of that, Tim looked really bad for his last 6 of 7 games.

                            I am all for developing him, but I doubt he will ever achieve a level of consistent play to win a championship. To win in the playoffs, is taking on three great teams and coming out on top. How many great teams did Tebow beat last year?
                            Every team could really point to 4 or 5 games they should have won. Denver should not have had an FG blocked that game either against the bears. It goes both ways. It was a win. So was the steelers game.

                            I agree that tebow stunk it up sometimes in some of those games. We all know that. But dont start taking away the wins we did get there.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Kazmo View Post
                              If you are going to mention how good he was against Pittsburg, why not mention his stellar game against New England? 9/26, 136 yards passing. The games he won? All against bad or injured teams in which he needed miracles to win. His defense also held their opponents to 16 points average in those games and he could barely keep up.

                              Don't forget how Tebow got injured in the pocket before half...I was at that game and no joke it was 4 freaking degrees. I bet the kid couldn't even breath with broken cartilage and fluid build up in his lungs...sounds pretty painful.

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