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Broncos making progress with Prater on a new deal.
As for Warren, didn't like him last year, now I like him less. I hope he gets cut and no one picks him up. It also seems like the FO is very high on both Siliga and Garland. Hopefully they step up as well as Malik and Wolfe!
4 mil now, and by the end of his contract it won't seem absurd.
Whoever is in the top echelons of a position who's up for the contract tends to push it. Being second to Janikowski essentially makes him first. Whoever's up for a contract next year will push for a bit more.
The top kickers in the league routinely make over $3M per year. The Bucs just gave Connor Barth a 4 year, $13.2 million contract (comes out to about $3.3M/year), so a contract around $3.5M per year would not be ridiculous for a top PK. The question, then, is whether Matt Prater is a top PK in the NFL.
I like Prater; he's got a big leg and has come through in some big spots, but I'm not sure he's worth being the second-highest kicker in the NFL. He's got to improve his mid-range consistency before he can be considered one of the elite kickers in football.
Last season, Prater converted 19 of 25 FG attempts, for a 76% success rate--tying him with Nick Folk for 26th in the NFL. 26th! For his career, he's only converted 78% of FG attempts. That's not even close to "elite kicker" territory. Matt Bryant converted 93.1% in 2011 (84% career). Barth was at 92.9% (83.9% career). Janikowski made 88.6% of his attempts. Viniateri, 85.2%.
He's just not consistent enough to justify being the second-highest kicker in the league. I want to keep him in Denver, but I'd only be okay with a long term, $3M+ per year deal for him if it includes a fairly low guarantee and lots of incentives based on success rate or other performance metrics. Make him earn the money, because I really don't think he's done that yet.
The top kickers in the league routinely make over $3M per year. The Bucs just gave Connor Barth a 4 year, $13.2 million contract (comes out to about $3.3M/year), so a contract around $3.5M per year would not be ridiculous for a top PK. The question, then, is whether Matt Prater is a top PK in the NFL.
I like Prater; he's got a big leg and has come through in some big spots, but I'm not sure he's worth being the second-highest kicker in the NFL. He's got to improve his mid-range consistency before he can be considered one of the elite kickers in football.
Last season, Prater converted 19 of 25 FG attempts, for a 76% success rate--tying him with Nick Folk for 26th in the NFL. 26th! For his career, he's only converted 78% of FG attempts. That's not even close to "elite kicker" territory. Matt Bryant converted 93.1% in 2011 (84% career). Barth was at 92.9% (83.9% career). Janikowski made 88.6% of his attempts. Viniateri, 85.2%.
He's just not consistent enough to justify being the second-highest kicker in the league. I want to keep him in Denver, but I'd only be okay with a long term, $3M+ per year deal for him if it includes a fairly low guarantee and lots of incentives based on success rate or other performance metrics. Make him earn the money, because I really don't think he's done that yet.
I don't disagree with what your saying, he does need to improve his mid range accuracy, but the reason he will cost a lot for a kicker -
He only 27
'Prater is currently the most accurate kicker in National Football League history for field goals of 50 yards or more, having hit 12 of 16 (or 75%) from that range'
Prater still owned the best touchback percentage during the regular season, booting 47-of-his-69 kickoffs for touchbacks (68.1%), proving he has one of the strongest legs in the league. With opponents rarely able to return kicks, the Broncos didn't allow a single return for a touchdown in 2011, which tied for first in the AFC.
After converting all four of his attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime during the regular season, Prater brought his career conversion rate to 28-of-29 in those circumstances. Near perfect in crunch time
I don't disagree with what your saying, he does need to improve his mid range accuracy, but the reason he will cost a lot for a kicker -
He only 27
'Prater is currently the most accurate kicker in National Football League history for field goals of 50 yards or more, having hit 12 of 16 (or 75%) from that range'
Prater still owned the best touchback percentage during the regular season, booting 47-of-his-69 kickoffs for touchbacks (68.1%), proving he has one of the strongest legs in the league. With opponents rarely able to return kicks, the Broncos didn't allow a single return for a touchdown in 2011, which tied for first in the AFC.
After converting all four of his attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime during the regular season, Prater brought his career conversion rate to 28-of-29 in those circumstances. Near perfect in crunch time
We can't afford to let him walk away
Agreed, while the offense and defense were taking turns struggling at times last season, Prater and Colquitt were the real keys to our success. How many times did we knock them back deep to start their drives? How many game winning field goals? Most of the time when Tebow was kneeling on the sideline it was him just waiting for Prater to win the game.
I don't disagree with what your saying, he does need to improve his mid range accuracy, but the reason he will cost a lot for a kicker -
He only 27
'Prater is currently the most accurate kicker in National Football League history for field goals of 50 yards or more, having hit 12 of 16 (or 75%) from that range'
Prater still owned the best touchback percentage during the regular season, booting 47-of-his-69 kickoffs for touchbacks (68.1%), proving he has one of the strongest legs in the league. With opponents rarely able to return kicks, the Broncos didn't allow a single return for a touchdown in 2011, which tied for first in the AFC.
After converting all four of his attempts in the fourth quarter or overtime during the regular season, Prater brought his career conversion rate to 28-of-29 in those circumstances. Near perfect in crunch time
We can't afford to let him walk away
So the question really becomes whether a clutch, strong-legged kicker who makes 3 out of every 4 chances--from anywhere in reasonable FG range--is worth the same as other clutch kickers who have a significantly better success rate from short and medium distance but a somewhat lower chance from long range.
If Prater can improve his success from mid-range, he would easily be one of the best all-around kickers in the game. But I don't think that 76% overall is worth $4 million a year, regardless of what else he brings to the table. 3 for 4 from 50+ doesn't justify 3 for 7 from 40-49 (6 for 11 beyond the 40 just isn't getting it done). But with kickers, you're always dealing with a small sample size; if he makes 2 more of those 11 kicks, his percentage would improve dramatically. So I'm hoping he signs long-term, but with a significant portion of his salary tied up in incentives, including overall accuracy. If he was an 85% overall kicker, in addition to his other qualities, he'd definitely be one of the best in the game.
Agreed, while the offense and defense were taking turns struggling at times last season, Prater and Colquitt were the real keys to our success. How many times did we knock them back deep to start their drives? How many game winning field goals? Most of the time when Tebow was kneeling on the sideline it was him just waiting for Prater to win the game.
No qualms about Colquitt; when the time comes, pay that man. I've never thought of a punter as an actual weapon before last season.
Like what I'm hearing about Prater. We need to make this deal happen.
He deserves to be one of the highest paid kickers simply because he's clutch. Some of the best kickers get cut by teams for not coming through in clutch time. Besides that, he has one of the strongest legs around. Those touchbacks are not only keeping guys from taking it to the house but also reducing special teams injuries. We are fortunate to have him after losing Elam.
Something about Warren really rubs me the wrong way. I doubt he has any plans on going out there and producing whether he gets his money or not. If we pay him, he'll probably be lazy. At least Vickerson gets it. You have to go out and earn your money.
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