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Broncos Projected to Receive 4 Compensatory Picks in the 2015 NFL Draft

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  • Broncos Projected to Receive 4 Compensatory Picks in the 2015 NFL Draft

    http://overthecap.com/projecting-the...icks-for-2015/

    For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this post. To briefly sum up the key methodologies used specifically for 2015, this is what that projection will use:

    OTC’s current salary cap estimate of $140 million; the official number will likely be different, but only enough to possibly impact one player.
    Cutoff points between rounds and qualifying as follows, based on the contract’s Average Per Year (APY):
    3rd/4th: $8,006,250 APY
    4th/5th: $5,570,250 APY
    5th/6th: $4,856,250 APY
    6th/7th: $2,235,625 APY
    Minimum: $730,000 APY (representing the four year veteran minimum salary for 2015)
    Ties in APY will be broken by playing time as represented in snap counts, the only such usage of playing time for this projection.
    Postseason honors as represented by being selected to the Pro Bowl will not be used; even if they were, it would only likely impact one player—coincidentally, it’s the same one that would be impacted in a significant change to the estimated salary cap.
    With all these usages, please understand that this projection will almost certainly not be 100% accurate. I expect to have several picks out of exact order (especially in the later rounds) due to not placing much weight on playing time, and I will likely be wrong on the qualifications of some players (though I will explain some possible altering scenarios if I am wrong on some relevant players). My goal is to give a general understanding as to what picks will likely be awarded to certain teams.

    If you have questions or see any possible errors, do not hesitate to provide feedback—either by commenting directly on this post, or by using the contact form on the calculator page.

    The Projection
    With that in place, here is my current projection for the 2015 compensatory picks (the programmed version can be found here):

    Team Round Compensated Free Agent Avg./Year
    NE 3 Aqib Talib $9,500,000
    KC 3 Branden Albert $9,400,000
    CIN 3 Michael Johnson $8,750,000
    SF 4 Donte Whitner $7,000,000
    DEN 4 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie $7,000,000
    BAL 4 Arthur Jones $6,600,000
    SEA 4 Golden Tate $6,200,000
    SEA 5 Brandon Browner $5,050,000
    CAR 5 Mike Mitchell $5,000,000
    BAL 5 Michael Oher $5,000,000
    KC 5 Tyson Jackson $5,000,000
    SEA 6 Breno Giacomini $4,500,000
    KC 6 Jon Asamoah $4,500,000
    HOU 6 Antonio Smith $4,500,000
    BAL 6 Corey Graham $4,075,000
    HOU 6 Earl Mitchell $4,000,000
    PIT 6 Ziggy Hood $4,000,000
    GB 6 Evan Dietrich-Smith $3,562,500
    GB 6 James Jones $3,333,333
    STL 6 Chris Williams $3,287,500
    HOU 6 Ben Tate $3,100,000
    SEA 6 Clinton McDonald $3,000,000
    HOU 6 Joe Mays $3,000,000
    DEN 6 Knowshon Moreno $3,000,000
    DEN 6 Shaun Phillips $2,500,000
    ARI 7 Jim Dray $1,875,000
    DEN 7 Robert Ayers $1,875,000
    NE 7 Dane Fletcher $1,200,000
    SF 7 Anthony Dixon $1,166,667
    KC 7 Quintin Demps $1,000,000
    IND 7 Kavell Conner $900,000
    IND 7 Jeff Linkenbach $900,000
    Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded
    GB 7 Marshall Newhouse $805,000
    IND 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey $795,000
    ARI 7 Javier Arenas $795,000
    CHI 7 Major Wright $730,000
    IND 7 Cassius Vaughn $730,000

    As you can see, there are actually 37 picks listed here, but because only a maximum of 32 compensatory picks can be awarded, the extra five picks are disregarded. For this same reason, I project that no “non-compensatory picks” will be needed (which essentially fill out what would be an eighth round if there were fewer than 32 compensatory picks awarded). Furthermore, I project that there will be no “net value” compensatory picks, but even if there were, they would not make the 32-pick limit anyway.

    Qualifying Questions
    As mentioned above, there is a good chance that I am too generous with the number of players I have projected as qualifying for the compensatory pick formula. At the same time, there are a few players that I have disqualified based on more well known factors that also deserve an explanation.

    First, as AdamJT13 laid out, players may lose their qualification for the formula if they “have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10)”. Clearly, players that were cut before the season even started (a few examples being Tiquan Underwood, Domenik Hixon, Jordan Senn, and Israel Idonije) have not been counted in this projection.

    Second, as mentioned above, I am otherwise qualifying all other players that signed for an APY of at least $730,000, representing the veteran minimum for a player with four accrued seasons of experience. However, there is a good chance that several players in the $730,000 to $850,000 APY range may not qualify, either due a stricter minimum APY threshold, or due to a lack of sufficient playing time. The following is a list of players that would alter this projection if they don’t qualify:

    Marshall Newhouse ($805,000 APY)
    Kendrick Lewis ($795,000 APY)
    Antoine Cason ($795,000 APY)
    Arthur Moats ($795,000 APY)
    Colt McCoy ($795,000 APY)
    Darrius Heyward-Bey ($795,000 APY)
    Javier Arenas ($795,000 APY)
    Joe Webb ($795,000 APY)
    Andrew Gardner ($742,500 APY)
    Chris Cook ($730,000 APY)
    As far as in-season cuts go, because the day after Week 10 in 2014 was November 11, I am not counting Clifton Geathers (Indianapolis to Washington, cut on November 1); though, even if he did qualify it would not impact either team. However, I am counting Ben Tate (Houston to Cleveland, cut November 18), LeGarrette Blount (New England to Pittsburgh, cut November 18), and Antoine Cason (Arizona to Carolina, cut December 2)..

    Most of the questions center around whether players will qualify at all for the formula. I currently foresee far fewer questions on which rounds players will fall in, although it is likely I will be off on some of them. The only serious question mark that I see right now focuses on TJ Ward, going from Cleveland to Denver for an APY of $5.625 million. Since I have projected the cutoff between the fourth and fifth round to be about $5.57 million, I project that TJ Ward will count as a 4th rounder against Denver. However, should the salary cap be greater than about $142 million, that would subsequently raise that cutoff, and possibly reduce Ward to a 5th rounder. But on the other hand, since Ward was named to the Pro Bowl it appears likely that he will end up as a 4th anyway. The reason this matters for Denver is because if Ward is a 5th instead of a 4th, he will cancel out a lower-valued player and give the Broncos a higher-valued pick (explained below). (In short, us Broncos fans should be rooting for a high salary cap in 2015, not only for this reason but so they have extra space to retain their key pending free agents.)

    Possible Altering Scenarios


    If TJ Ward is classified as a 5th instead of a 4th, Denver will get a 4th for Zane Beadles instead of a 6th for Knowshon Moreno.
    Team-by-Team Breakdown
    Arizona
    Lost (5): Karlos Dansby, Andre Roberts, Jim Dray, Javier Arenas (over the 32-pick limit), Antoine Cason
    Gained (3): Jared Veldheer, Ted Ginn, Ted Larsen
    Baltimore
    Lost (4): Arthur Jones, Michael Oher, Corey Graham, James Ihedigbo
    Gained (1): Darian Stewart
    Carolina
    Lost (4): Mike Mitchell, Captain Munnerlyn, Ted Ginn, Brandon LaFell
    Gained (3): Jerricho Cotchery, Joe Webb, Antoine Cason
    Chicago
    Lost (6): Henry Melton, Josh McCown, Devin Hester, Corey Wootton, Zack Bowman, Major Wright (over the 32-pick limit)
    Gained (5): Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, Ryan Mundy, Danny McCray
    Cincinnati
    Lost (2): Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins
    Gained (1): Marshall Newhouse
    Denver
    Lost (8): Eric Decker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Zane Beadles, Wesley Woodyard, Knowshon Moreno, Shaun Phillips, Robert Ayers, Jeremy Mincey (cannot be awarded more than four)
    Gained (3): Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, Emmanuel Sanders
    Green Bay
    Lost (3): Evan Dietrich-Smith, James Jones, Marshall Newhouse (over the 32-pick limit)
    Gained (0): None
    Houston
    Lost (5): Antonio Smith, Earl Mitchell, Ben Tate, Joe Mays, Andrew Gardner
    Gained (1): Kendrick Lewis
    Indianapolis
    Lost (6): Antoine Bethea, Donald Brown, Kavell Conner, Jeff Linkenbach, Darrius Heyward-Bey (over the 32-pick limit), Cassius Vaughn (over the 32-pick limit)
    Gained (2): Arthur Jones, Hakeem Nicks
    Kansas City
    Lost (8): Branden Albert, Tyson Jackson, Jon Asamoah, Geoff Schwartz, Dexter McCluster, Quintin Demps, Akeem Jordan, Kendrick Lewis
    Gained (4): Vance Walker, Joe Mays, Jeff Linkenbach, Christopher Owens
    New England
    Lost (4): Aqib Talib, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher, LeGarrette Blount
    Gained (2): Brandon Browner, Brandon LaFell
    Pittsburgh
    Lost (6): Emmanuel Sanders, Ziggy Hood, Al Woods, Jerricho Cotchery, Ryan Clark, David Johnson
    Gained (5): Mike Mitchell, Cam Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Arthur Moats, LeGarrette Blount
    Seattle
    Lost (7): Golden Tate, Brandon Browner, Breno Giacomini, Clinton McDonald, Walter Thurmond (cannot be awarded more than four), Paul McQuistan (cannot be awarded more than four), Chris Maragos (cannot be awarded more than four)
    Gained (0): None
    San Francisco
    Lost (4): Donte Whitner, Tarell Brown, Anthony Dixon, Colt McCoy (over the 32-pick limit)
    Gained (2): Antoine Bethea, Chris Cook
    St. Louis
    Lost (4): Chris Williams, Shelley Smith, Kellen Clemens, Darian Stewart
    Gained (3): Shaun Hill, Alex Carrington, Kenny Britt

  • #2
    Over the Cap: Projecting compensation picks.

    4th for DRC
    6th for Moreno
    6th for Phillips
    7th for Ayers

    http://overthecap.com/projecting-the...icks-for-2015/

    Comment


    • #3
      I am down! At least we could make up a 4th that we don't have.
      Jacksonville Jaguars Broncomania GM:

      Comment


      • #4
        Would love to have these picks, but we need to make them count and hope they have been far better than the picks we have made the past few years. Subpar drafts thus far
        Wanting to win does not make you a winner. Refusing to fail does.

        Comment


        • #5
          Good deal! I was hoping for a 3rd - 4th for Beadles and/or Decker.
          sigpic

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by JayJack View Post
            Good deal! I was hoping for a 3rd - 4th for Beadles and/or Decker.
            Still think we will get a 3rd and a 4th, but we will see.
            Ravens GM 2016 - Ravens are looking to trade down 4-8 spots

            Comment


            • #7
              This isnt confirmed, but just projections.

              The article said we should hope for a higher cap, one so we can have more money to retain our own guys, and two we might get two 4's with a higher cap.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by MHSalute View Post
                Still think we will get a 3rd and a 4th, but we will see.
                I dont see us getting a 3rd.

                3rd round comp picks are 8+ mil in APY.

                Maybe two 4's.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by ERoyal248 View Post
                  I dont see us getting a 3rd.

                  3rd round comp picks are 8+ mil in APY.

                  Maybe two 4's.
                  I guess, but it will also depend on how the contract was structured, ie more more guarantees = higher comp.

                  Talib will cancel out DRC and that leaves Decker and Beadles as the two 4ths, then Ward cancels out WW, and Sanders cancels out Moreno. This should be the worst case.

                  2 4ths and a 6th and 7th.
                  Ravens GM 2016 - Ravens are looking to trade down 4-8 spots

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Broncos Projected to Receive 4 Compensatory Picks in the 2015 NFL Draft

                    (1) 4th Round Pick
                    (2) 6th Round Picks
                    (1) 7th Round Pick

                    UPDATE (11:39 AM ET): The projections have been altered to include CJ Wilson (originally missed as a qualifying player), and to change a cutoff point between the 5th round and 6th round. Subtracted information has been struck out and updated information bolded.

                    For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this post. To briefly sum up the key methodologies used specifically for 2015, this is what that projection will use:

                    OTC’s current salary cap estimate of $140 million; the official number will likely be different, but only enough to possibly impact one player.
                    Cutoff points between rounds and qualifying as follows, based on the contract’s Average Per Year (APY):
                    3rd/4th: $8,006,250 APY
                    4th/5th: $5,570,250 APY
                    5th/6th: $4,856,250 APY $4,200,000 APY
                    6th/7th: $2,235,625 APY
                    Minimum: $730,000 APY (representing the four year veteran minimum salary for 2015)
                    Ties in APY will be broken by playing time as represented in snap counts, the only such usage of playing time for this projection.
                    Postseason honors as represented by being selected to the Pro Bowl will not be used; even if they were, it would only likely impact one player—coincidentally, it’s the same one that would be impacted in a significant change to the estimated salary cap.
                    With all these usages, please understand that this projection will almost certainly not be 100% accurate. I expect to have several picks out of exact order (especially in the later rounds) due to not placing much weight on playing time, and I will likely be wrong on the qualifications of some players (though I will explain some possible altering scenarios if I am wrong on some relevant players). My goal is to give a general understanding as to what picks will likely be awarded to certain teams.

                    If you have questions or see any possible errors, do not hesitate to provide feedback—either by commenting directly on this post, or by using the contact form on the calculator page.

                    The Projection
                    With that in place, here is my current projection for the 2015 compensatory picks (the programmed version can be found here):

                    Team Round Compensated Free Agent Avg./Year
                    NE 3 Aqib Talib $9,500,000
                    KC 3 Branden Albert $9,400,000
                    CIN 3 Michael Johnson $8,750,000
                    SF 4 Donte Whitner $7,000,000
                    DEN 4 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie $7,000,000
                    BAL 4 Arthur Jones $6,600,000
                    SEA 4 Golden Tate $6,200,000
                    SEA 5 Brandon Browner $5,050,000
                    CAR 5 Mike Mitchell $5,000,000
                    BAL 5 Michael Oher $5,000,000
                    KC 5 Tyson Jackson $5,000,000
                    SEA 5 Breno Giacomini $4,500,000
                    KC 5 Jon Asamoah $4,500,000
                    HOU 5 Antonio Smith $4,500,000
                    BAL 6 Corey Graham $4,075,000
                    HOU 6 Earl Mitchell $4,000,000
                    PIT 6 Ziggy Hood $4,000,000
                    GB 6 Evan Dietrich-Smith $3,562,500
                    GB 6 James Jones $3,333,333
                    STL 6 Chris Williams $3,287,500
                    HOU 6 Ben Tate $3,100,000
                    SEA 6 Clinton McDonald $3,000,000
                    HOU 6 Joe Mays $3,000,000
                    DEN 6 Knowshon Moreno $3,000,000
                    DEN 6 Shaun Phillips $2,500,000

                    ARI 7 Jim Dray $1,875,000
                    DEN 7 Robert Ayers $1,875,000
                    NE 7 Dane Fletcher $1,200,000
                    SF 7 Anthony Dixon $1,166,667
                    KC 7 Quintin Demps $1,000,000
                    IND 7 Kavell Conner $900,000
                    IND 7 Jeff Linkenbach $900,000
                    Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded
                    GB 7 Marshall Newhouse $805,000
                    GB 7 CJ Wilson $795,000
                    IND 7 Darrius Heyward-Bey $795,000
                    ARI 7 Javier Arenas $795,000
                    CHI 7 Major Wright $730,000
                    IND 7 Cassius Vaughn $730,000
                    As you can see, there are actually 37 picks listed here, but because only a maximum of 32 compensatory picks can be awarded, the extra five picks are disregarded. For this same reason, I project that no “non-compensatory picks” will be needed (which essentially fill out what would be an eighth round if there were fewer than 32 compensatory picks awarded). Furthermore, I project that there will be no “net value” compensatory picks, but even if there were, they would not make the 32-pick limit anyway.

                    The two players currently counting for compensatory picks that are on the 32-pick bubble both happen to be assigned to Indianapolis: Jeff Linkenbach and Kavell Conner. If any of the scenarios below alters the current projection, it is possible that either or both of these two players will be pushed below the 32 pick limit and not be awarded to Indianapolis. It may also be possible, though not likely, for Green Bay to get the last 7th round pick with Marshall Newhouse if he qualifies and other players do not. It also appears even more unlikely that Kansas City will miss out on a 7th for Quintin Demps due to getting pushed below the 32-pick limit.

                    Most of the questions center around whether players will qualify at all for the formula. I currently foresee far fewer questions on which rounds players will fall in, although it is likely I will be off on some of them. The only One serious question mark that I see right now focuses on TJ Ward, going from Cleveland to Denver for an APY of $5.625 million. Since I have projected the cutoff between the fourth and fifth round to be about $5.57 million, I project that TJ Ward will count as a 4th rounder against Denver. However, should the salary cap be greater than about $142 million, that would subsequently raise that cutoff, and possibly reduce Ward to a 5th rounder. But on the other hand, since Ward was named to the Pro Bowl it appears likely that he will end up as a 4th anyway. The reason this matters for Denver is because if Ward is a 5th instead of a 4th, he will cancel out a lower-valued player and give the Broncos a higher-valued pick (explained below). (In short, us Broncos fans should be rooting for a high salary cap in 2015, not only for this reason but so they have extra space to retain their key pending free agents.)

                    In addition, the cutoff between the 5th and 6th round could impact the value of players around the $4-4.5M APY range. Those players that would be relevant to the compensatory picks would be the following:

                    Breno Giacomini (SEA to NYJ, $4.5M APY)
                    Jon Asamoah (KC to ATL, $4.5M APY)
                    Antonio Smith (HOU to OAK, $4.5M APY)
                    Geoff Schwartz (KC to NYG, $4.2M APY)
                    Corey Graham (BAL to BUF, $4.075M APY)
                    Andre Roberts (ARI to WAS, $4M APY)
                    Earl Mitchell (HOU to MIA, $4M APY)
                    Ziggy Hood (PIT to JAX, $4M APY)
                    With the $4.2M cutoff now in place, the program is now projecting the three $4.5M APY players as earning their former teams 5th round picks, with the rest counting as 6th round picks. The valuation of only two players could change the cancellations of players resulting in differently valued picks (the rest would just move a pick from the 5th to 6th or vice versa). Those two players are Schwartz and Roberts. However, because Schwartz had an injury-wrecked season, and Roberts is below the current $4.2M threshold, I am currently projecting both as being a 6th round value. But if either or both are 5ths instead, it will alter who cancels who (explained in the scenarios below).

                    Perhaps the attribute that could change this part even further would be an adjustment to the 2015 salary cap once we receive the official number from the NFL. When that happens this section may change further.

                    Possible Altering Scenarios
                    If Andre Roberts is valued as a 5th instead of a 6th, Arizona will receive a 5th for him instead of a 7th for Jim Dray.
                    If both Antoine Cason and Javier Arenas do not qualify, or if Jonathan Dwyer qualifies and either Antoine Cason or Javier Arenas do not qualify, Arizona will not get a 7th for Jim Dray (or a 5th for Andre Roberts).
                    If either Antoine Cason or Joe Webb do not qualify, Carolina will get a 6th for Captain Munnerlyn.
                    If both Antoine Cason and Joe Webb do not qualify, Carolina will get two 6ths for Captain Munnerlyn and Ted Ginn.
                    If any one of following happen:
                    LeGarrette Blount does not qualify
                    Darrius Heyward-Bey does not qualify
                    Arthur Moats does not qualify
                    Jonathan Dwyer does qualify
                    Pittsburgh will get a 7th for Jerricho Cotchery. If any two of the above happens, Pittsburgh will get two 7ths for Jerricho Cotchery and Ryan Clark. (Even if three or all four happen, an additional possible 7th for David Johnson won’t make it past the 32-pick limit.)
                    If Andrew Gardner does not qualify and Kendrick Lewis does qualify, Houston will not get a 6th for Joe Mays.
                    If Ben Tate does not qualify, Houston will not get a 6th for him.
                    If Colt McCoy does not qualify and Chris Cook does qualify, San Francisco will not get a 7th for Anthony Dixon.
                    If Marshall Newhouse does not qualify, Green Bay will not get a 7th for Newhouse under any scenario, and Cincinnati will get a 4th for Anthony Collins.
                    If LeGarrette Blount does not qualify, New England will not get a 7th for Dane Fletcher.
                    If TJ Ward is classified as a 5th instead of a 4th, Denver will get a 4th for Zane Beadles instead of a 6th for Knowshon Moreno.
                    If Geoff Schwartz is valued as a 5th instead of a 6th, Kansas City will receive a 5th for him instead of a 7th for Quintin Demps.
                    It is possible that Breno Giacomini, Jon Asamoah, and Antonio Smith could count as 6ths, and for Corey Graham, Earl Mitchell, and Ziggy Hood to count as 5ths.
                    Team-by-Team Breakdown
                    Here is a team-by team breakdown of the free agents gained and lost for the 15 teams I project to have a net loss of qualifying free agents, including Chicago, even though they will not actually earn a compensatory pick due to being below the 32-pick limit. (You will see a similar breakdown in the NFL’s official release come March; see the 2014 press release as an example.)


                    Lost (8): Eric Decker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Zane Beadles, Wesley Woodyard, Knowshon Moreno, Shaun Phillips, Robert Ayers, Jeremy Mincey (cannot be awarded more than four)
                    Gained (3): Aqib Talib, TJ Ward, Emmanuel Sanders
                    http://overthecap.com/projecting-the...icks-for-2015/

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      This will help the Broncos with 4 picks this year
                      (1 4th round, two 6th rounds, and 1 7th round pick)
                      DEN 4 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie $7,000,000
                      DEN 6 Knowshon Moreno $3,000,000
                      DEN 6 Shaun Phillips $2,500,000

                      DEN 7 Robert Ayers $1,875,000

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Let's hope for a higher cap
                        What's the difference between ignorance and apathy?
                        I don't know and I don't care

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          No Decker or Beadles?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            This seems odd to me... Wont complain if it is true, but how credible are their projections?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by LightningRodBob View Post
                              No Decker or Beadles?
                              Probably cancelled out by Ward and Sanders




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