Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Julius Thomas to leave Broncos for Jaguars or Falcons?

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Julius Thomas to leave Broncos for Jaguars or Falcons?

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...ars-or-falcons


    2-24 11:45AM

    Based on the video at this link - Thomas' agent might be packing

    Julius Thomas might have to trade in his "Orange Julius" nickname for one that reflects teal or red.

    Reportedly seeking a near record in guarantees for tight ends, Thomas has rejected a five-year, $40 million offer that wasn't structured to his specifications.

    Broncos general manager John Elway now appears willing to let Thomas test his value on the open market. There are questions in Denver about the former college hoops star's injury history as well as his fit in Gary Kubiak's scheme that requires tight ends to do more blocking on cutback runs.

    Against that backdrop, the Broncos have scheduled a meeting with tight end James Casey, recently released by the Eagles.

    Once Thomas reaches free agency on March 10, Jacksonville and Atlanta are viewed as likely landing spots.

    The Jaguars will be "among the most aggressive pursuers," writes Mike Klis of the Denver Post. The Florida Times-Union agrees that Thomas is a "perfect fit" for a Jags offense desperately in need of a premier red-zone threat.

    The Atlanta Journal-Constitution believes the Falcons will also be interested in Thomas, which jibes with scuttlebutt at the NFL Scouting Combine late last week.

    Levine Toilolo proved to be an unworthy successor to Tony Gonzalez last season, while Thomas became the first tight end in NFL history with at least 12 touchdowns in back-to-back years.

    Thomas isn't merely a product of Peyton Manning's offense. His emergence as a mismatch for linebackers and safeties was the engine that drove the Broncos' record-breaking attack in 2013.

    "Skill-set wise as a tight end, he gives you everything," NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah opined last November. "He can run after the catch, he can post you up in the middle of the field, he has a great feel in the red zone. He's an outstanding tight end and a big-time weapon for Peyton Manning."

    As a Pro Bowl-caliber talent in the prime of his career, Thomas is exactly the kind of player who should be on the radar of rebuilding teams with salary-cap space to spare.
    The beatings will continue until morale improves....

  • #2
    He's gotta do what he's gotta do.

    Comment


    • #3
      I'm from Atlanta, I live in Jacksonville....so I can still cheer him on.
      sigpic

      Comment


      • #4
        I wish Julius well. I hope the Broncos can put together a good group of TEs who can block as well as catch.
        "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

        Comment


        • #5
          He had what, one healthy year here? Not a good track record to want record guaranteed money, although a team will probably pay it.
          sigpic


          Comment


          • #6
            Thomas isn't merely a product of Peyton Manning's offense. His emergence as a mismatch for linebackers and safeties was the engine that drove the Broncos' record-breaking attack in 2013
            😂 😂 😂

            Comment


            • #7
              Both Atlanta and Jax make a lot of sense, Jax needs more weapons for Bortles to work with and Atlanta needs to find a replacement for Gonzalez who can stretch the middle.

              8 mil per year is probably about what Thomas' deal is going to end up as wherever he goes, the real difference will be the structure of guarantees, which was mentioned as a reason he turned down the offer.

              There are a couple of things a player looks at when signing a contract:

              Fully guaranteed money is important, and most of it comes in the form of a signing bonus. Usually contracts have between 25-40% of the total value in guaranteed money. If Thomas is going for a record amount of guarantees for a TE he would need over 16 mil in guarantees.

              Another thing players look at is amount likely to be earned. This is more about what the contract does to the team's cap situation.

              So for example, a player could sign a 5 year deal worth 50 mil.

              He could have each year listed as a 10 mil base salary. Let's say in example 1 he has the first 2 years fully guaranteed.
              Yr 1: 10 mil: 10 mil gtd
              Yr 2: 10 mil: 10 mil gtd
              Yr 3: 10 mil: 0 gtd
              Yr 4: 10 mil: 0 gtd
              Yr 5: 10 mil: 0 gtd


              However, if instead he has a 10 mil signing bonus, and changes the base salaries to escalate gradually, it looks like this
              Signing bonus: 10 mil
              Yr 1: 6 mil: 6 mil gtd. Pro rated cap +2 mil
              Yr 2: 7 mil: 2 mil gtd. Pro rated cap + 2mil
              Yr 3: 8 mil: 2 mil gtd. Pro Rated cap +2 mil
              Yr 4: 9 mil: 0 gtd Pro rated cap +2 mil
              Yr 5: 10 mil: 0 gtd Pro rated cap +2 mil

              Notice that the total value and the guaranteed money is exactly the same. However, the team in scenario one can cut the player after year 2 with no cap penalty and the player has only earned his guaranteed money.


              So if the team decided to cut the player at any point, here would be there cap savings:

              Scenario 1
              Yr 1:-10 mil
              Yr 2: 0 mil
              Yr 3: 10 mil
              Yr 4: 10 mil
              Yr 5: 10 mil

              Scenario 2:
              Yr 1:-12 mil
              Yr 2:- 3 mil
              Yr 3: 2 mil
              Yr 4: 7 mil
              Yr 5: 10 mil

              We can see in scenario 1, there is basically no protection for the player after year 2, and the team can cut him and have a full 10 mil to go against the performance they think they'll get from the player.

              In scenario 2, there is some protection for the player. Granted he can still get cut, but the savings are much smaller and he is protected in some sense by the fact that cutting him doesn't really improve the teams cap situation, so if he is still performing adequately he is likely to remain and earn his base salary for year 3. It's only after season 3 that the likelihood of being cut becomes more realistic. In scenario 1, the player needs to be playing at the top of his game when he hits year three or he is gone.

              So, the total amount likely earned:

              Scenario 1:
              10 mil in base salary for year 1 and 2
              Likely cut after year 2.
              Total likely earned: 20 mil

              Scenario 2:
              Signing bonus of 10 mil
              6 mil base salary in year 1, 7 mil in base salary year 2, 8 mil in base salary year 3
              Likely cut after year 3.
              Total likely earned: 31 mil.

              See how the structure of guarantees really can have an effect even if the length, size and total guarantees are the same.
              A book I wrote

              Comment


              • #8
                Here is the real scary thing, Patriots call him up, run there two TE set again. Sign him for 1 or 2 years just to win superbowl again. Patriots are already looking at Percy Harvin! Oh man...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by JayJack View Post
                  I'm from Atlanta, I live in Jacksonville....so I can still cheer him on.
                  Negative....once they leave me, they're DEAD to me.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mozzerpete View Post
                    Negative....once they leave me, they're DEAD to me.
                    Lol you sound like my Bro N Law.
                    sigpic

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Legion509 View Post
                      Here is the real scary thing, Patriots call him up, run there two TE set again. Sign him for 1 or 2 years just to win superbowl again. Patriots are already looking at Percy Harvin! Oh man...
                      I live in Boston and I've been hearing all day that the Pats being interested in Percy Harvin is a rumor. But you never know about these things. The Pats are great with media spin.
                      Adopted Bronco: DeMarcus Ware

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Legion509 View Post
                        Here is the real scary thing, Patriots call him up, run there two TE set again. Sign him for 1 or 2 years just to win superbowl again. Patriots are already looking at Percy Harvin! Oh man...
                        The Pats are going to have a tough enough time signing McCourty and Revis. I HOPE they go after him and let both of them go. Broncos sign McCourty!!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Legion509 View Post
                          Here is the real scary thing, Patriots call him up, run there two TE set again. Sign him for 1 or 2 years just to win superbowl again. Patriots are already looking at Percy Harvin! Oh man...
                          That is a scary thought when you think of JT, the pass catcher. The problem is this - JT isn't the coveted type player the Patriots love to have. They want their players to have versatility. JT has yet to demonstrate a full pallet of TE skills. What he does well, he does very well though.

                          Here's the other thing. If the Pats get him, then they're the ones who will have to deal with the big contract. That means their team will be weaker elsewhere. But then again, it's not like the Pats haven't gone this route when Aaron Hernandez was playing with Gronk.

                          I don't know how the money works out for Atlanta but I could see JT do very well there. Nice post CTM - it's interesting how these deals can vary so much yet still be reported generically -as if- ..

                          If I'm honest with myself, I don't want to see him become an all pro blocker once he leaves either. I don't wish any ill will on him but the only way I want to see him become a legit blocker is if he's a Bronco. Because if JT just left it out there on the field in the first place, sure he might have gotten hurt...... but he might have been guaranteed the money he wanted though too.

                          And really, as sketchy as things have become, and if his agent is panicking like it seems, maybe he acquiesces to Denver's offer- which by the way is no longer on the table. I'm not sure it's a good idea to keep him around after some of the things I've read and learned, though. Maybe the Broncos bridge and the Manning bridge have been burnt - thanks to his pops.
                          The beatings will continue until morale improves....

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by orangnbluxpress View Post
                            The Pats are going to have a tough enough time signing McCourty and Revis. I HOPE they go after him and let both of them go. Broncos sign McCourty!!
                            Pats are going to use the TAG on McCourty so he will be back. I think the Pats will lose Revis. They will not pay him the money he wants. Revis got his ring its all about money now.
                            sigpic2020 HOFER!!!!
                            Adopted Bronco: Justin Simmons 2017,2018 ,2019
                            PATS FANS COME TO THIS BOARD BECAUSE THEY RESPECT AND APPRECIATE US

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Legion509 View Post
                              Here is the real scary thing, Patriots call him up, run there two TE set again. Sign him for 1 or 2 years just to win superbowl again. Patriots are already looking at Percy Harvin! Oh man...
                              They have zero cap room, in fact they're currently over the cap, I'm not sure how that translates to the spending spree you're talking about.

                              Marvin makes zero sense for anyone, on the field he's Devin Hester 2.0, a good return man who's a below average receiver. Off the field he's apparently a locker room cancer.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X