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Projected Final Win Totals.....

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  • Projected Final Win Totals.....

    Cynthia Frelund projects the number of wins for all NFL teams. You can read about the methodology within.

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...fs-riding-high

    Here's how The AFC West teams shape up...

    KC - 12.8 wins
    Chargers - 9.4
    Broncos - 7.3 (21st place overall)
    Oakland - 3.5 (last place!)

    As for The Broncos....

    "Current record: 3-5. Projected playoff percentage: 16.4.

    The Broncos' offense boasts the best rushing average in the NFL (5.3 yards per rush), but their defense allows the second-highest per-rush mark (5.1) to opposing ball carriers. Efficient rushing and run- stopping are characteristics of winning teams. Likewise, an inability to slow opposing runners can be a hindrance to teams with less-efficient passing offenses, even if they have high yard-per-carry runners. Think of it like this: opposing teams chew up yards and the clock by running. If an offense like the Broncos' falls behind, they're likely to pass more, meaning they don't get to realize the benefits of their efficient rushing game as much. The Broncos currently rank 20th in passing yards per game (22nd in passing touchdowns) and only average 1.85 points per drive (also 20th)."


    ~~~~~~

    Even though one can challenge the model, and the probabilities, I don't think this win total is far off from what many of us believe. I see up to 8 wins. At 21st overall, we get a decent draft pick in round one, but not a can't miss type. I've said this many times, but you want to be near the top, but if things go south, maybe closer to the bottom...but not near the middle for too many years. The progression of performing poorly for a year or two often leads to excellent draft picks (think Von), and if correctly assessed, can rebound teams upward for the long term. But mid pack finishes are not as likely to find game changers. That said, a smart combo of Free Agency, The Draft, Trades...and yes, good developmental coaching, can get you headed where you want to be. Relying on only one or two of those factors may not be enough.

    (FTR....she predicts The Rams do best, with 14 wins)

  • #2
    Denver has a brutal 4 game stretch coming = Texans, Chargers, Steelers and Bengals. I know they have played tough but Keenum has found a way to turn the ball over in every game so far and I can't rightfully expect too many wins if he keeps that up.

    I want to believe that we have an outsiders chance to somehow squeak into the playoffs. But.........I just can't right now. With the pass defense far from good and the turnover rate that Keenum is putting out there I'm not confident that they will even get passed 6 wins this season.

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    • #3
      I never would want anyone to tank, but I really hope we don't win 7 games. I realize that's non-sensical, but it makes sense if you want what's best for the Broncos long term. We cannot go through another season with this coaching staff, so I want Elway to pull the trigger. I fear a resurgence of the team will make him try another year. And, I want all the players to develop, to get better at all aspects, to build a set of skills the next coaching staff can exploit.
      I have not seen our players ascending. I know I'm not blind and Lord knows I've watched a TON of football over the years. But, it's very discouraging to see our players fail to get better. I think that's one of the reasons we see such great result from our talented rookie class. I want the players to get better....

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      • #4
        Eight games to go. Think I'll watch them one at a time instead of all at once.
        "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

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        • #5
          Originally posted by samparnell View Post
          Eight games to go. Think I'll watch them one at a time instead of all at once.
          That's your prerogative. But this thread is about seasonal projections, which is a subject some of us enjoy.

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          • #6
            I see our ceiling as 7-9 and our floor at 3-13, I will guess around 5-11. We still have the Browns, Raiders, and 49ers on the schedule, we could win all of those games. I could also see us splitting with the Chargers or stealing a win from the Ravens, Steelers, or Bengals, or even getting a win this week against Houston. I think we will finish 5-11 but I am hoping we lose out honestly, you never know what you will get with this Joseph coached team, so who knows.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by CanDB View Post
              That's your prerogative. But this thread is about seasonal projections, which is a subject some of us enjoy.
              I like to watch the Denver Broncos play football games.
              "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

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              • #8
                With the present coaching staff, we will be fortunate to win 6 games in the season. I am hoping we could win at least 8.

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                • #9
                  The Football Outsiders generates a regularly-updated DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT for all teams which might be of interest to those forecasting both the playoff contenders as well as those most likely to get the #1 pick in the draft or a pick in the top 5.


                  Superbowl 50 MVP Von Miller on February 7th, 2016
                  2021 Adopted Bronco: Von Miller

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by L.M. View Post
                    The Football Outsiders generates a regularly-updated DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT for all teams which might be of interest to those forecasting both the playoff contenders as well as those most likely to get the #1 pick in the draft or a pick in the top 5.

                    Thx for this! I am going to take a deeper look, but based on last night's game, I wonder if San Fran will draft before Oakland!!!

                    Comparing studies, the AFC West win projections are quite similar:

                    KC 12.8 vs 12.7
                    Chargers 9.4 vs 10.1
                    Broncos 7.3 vs 7.7
                    Oakland 3.5 vs 4.1

                    Not too surprising, although it appears that The Chargers outcome could be very relevant re: playoffs, and Oakland's will as well, from a draft perspective.
                    (Heck, I gotta love any stats that are named after me!!)
                    Last edited by CanDB; 11-02-2018, 11:16 AM.

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                    • #11
                      This Sunday will shed more light on if the coaching staff should be retained. As I said in the past if your performance does not live up to the standard of the position then a qualified replacement needs to be found. More then enough chances to prove VJ deserves to stay, any other employee would have been let go along time ago.

                      If we win another 3 games that would be my expectation with a new regime in charge.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                        Thx for this! I am going to take a deeper look, but based on last night's game, I wonder if San Fran will draft before Oakland!!!

                        Comparing studies, the AFC West win projections are quite similar:

                        KC 12.8 vs 12.7
                        Chargers 9.4 vs 10.1
                        Broncos 7.3 vs 7.7
                        Oakland 3.5 vs 4.1

                        Not too surprising, although it appears that The Chargers outcome could be very relevant re: playoffs, and Oakland's will as well, from a draft perspective.
                        (Heck, I gotta love any stats that are named after me!!)
                        So after thursdays game the raiders and giants are tied for race to the number 1 pick with both at 1 win. Wonder what happens when the raiders draft bosa and then play the chargers twice a year.
                        Glen Haven Fire

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by armedequation View Post
                          So after thursdays game the raiders and giants are tied for race to the number 1 pick with both at 1 win. Wonder what happens when the raiders draft bosa and then play the chargers twice a year.
                          Are we talking family feud?

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                          • #14
                            With the present coaching staff, I think we do good to finish better than 5-11. Every week Vance points to yet another area that did not do well. Instead of pointing fingers, he needs to take a page of of Gandhi's book. "Be the change you wish to see". The players can not self coach, if they could, you would not need coaches. It is up to vance to coach the players up.
                            sigpic

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by broncolassiter View Post
                              With the present coaching staff, I think we do good to finish better than 5-11. Every week Vance points to yet another area that did not do well. Instead of pointing fingers, he needs to take a page of of Gandhi's book. "Be the change you wish to see". The players can not self coach, if they could, you would not need coaches. It is up to vance to coach the players up.
                              I guess one has to wonder...will he still be with our team come next game?

                              But I agree. In fact, some folks are thinking we aren't a 3 and 6 team, and though you are your record, it may point to the fact we are pretty competitive just the same. But the difference may be coaching, and perhaps a QB situation.

                              I think of it this way, and I hate to use Belichick in a positive way. But how many times have the Pats won close games? And even so, with talented teams. I think the answer comes down to coaching. If you win often by one score, that means your coaching is a key factor as well. And sad to say, our coaching is currently not good enough to win those games. It may just come down to 2 or 3 decisions in a game, or things that should have been altered. It may just be one error in the decisions.

                              Being a HC in The NFL is not a common job...there are only 32. Not an easy job to get, or to hold.

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