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If you want to view the whole 9 page report yourself, you'll find the link below:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fi...sample_DEN.pdf
Very comprehensive analysis.
Here are some excerpts:
"We expect their defense to be downright average in 2019, and that defensive coordinator fip is a large part of it. It generally takes time to adapt to a new defensive coordinator and a new system, as the previous system’s square pegs fnd their places in the new scheme’s round holes. Fangio is no exception; it generally takes a couple seasons for his defenses to really start clicking (Table
1). Fangio’s frst year in Chicago saw the Bears rank 31st in DVOA, though the Bears were just a skosh less talented than last year’s Broncos were. There’s a foor to how bad a defense with this much talent can be, but some transitional pains are to be expected in 2019."
"Saying Joe Flacco is the pinnacle of mediocre is an insult to mediocrity, and has been for years. From 2015 through 2017, Flacco had negative double-digit passing DVOA, never rank- ing in the top 25 at the position. His 2018 season was his best in four years, and that saw him getting benched for a rookie quarterback whom the Ravens barely trusted to throw the ball."
"Flacco has now been below league average in adjusted net yards per attempt in each of the past four seasons, yet remained Baltimore’s starter. He is only the 11th quarterback since the merger to manage that extended feat of below-average play without getting benched, joining luminaries such as Mark Sanchez, Joey Har- rington, and Rick Mirer.
• Despite his reputation for being a solid deep-ball pass- er, Flacco regularly ranks near the bottom of our failed completion statistics. A failed completion is a dump-off or checkdown that doesn’t meaningfully advance the ball; think 2-yard screens on frst-and-10, or any third- down completion that ends short of the sticks. Flacco’s 2016 season had 144 failed completions, the all-time record. Second-place was Flacco’s 2017 season.
• Flacco’s pretty deep ball is often listed as one of his strengths, but it’s overstated. His average pass traveled 8.4 yards through the air in 2018, which ranked 13th in the league, but his average completion was went just 5.9 yards through the air, so there were a lot of beauti- ful deep balls bouncing off the turf—13.5 percent of his passes were listed as overthrown in 2018. Flacco ranked 28th out of 34 qualifed quarterbacks in DVOA on passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfeld, be- low such noted deep-ball slingers such as Nick Foles, Derek Carr, and—yes—Case Keenum."
"Elway’s response to all this is to claim that the 34-year-old Flacco is “just getting into his prime,” noting that he “plays the position exactly how [Denver] envisions it being played.” He points to Flacco’s decent 2014 season under Gary Kubiak as reason for optimism, as Scangarello’s offense will presum- ably be similar to Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which bears some resemblance to Kubiak’s system as Shanahan was Kubiak’s offensive coordinator for two years in Houston. That’s a game of telephone tag, not a reason for optimism, even when fltered through the lens of preseason platitudes. Flacco has been an anchor for Baltimore for years; there’s little reason to suspect that he’s going to have a breakout season and reverse years of decline just because his zip code changed."
"No, there’s no reason to suspect that the Broncos have licked their quarterback conundrum just yet, and the rest of their offense is more potential and possibility than it is a func- tioning NFL unit at this point in time. Combine that with some transitional pains on defense, and you get a very bleak picture for the 2019 Broncos."
"If sanity prevails, Flacco will at some point be benched for a rookie quarterback yet again in 2019."
Man, they are not going easy on us. But it can't all be bad, right? Here's some good stuff:
"The Broncos have a set of young skill players who could form the basis for a solid offense when a quarterback finally does arrive"
"Broncos also added Ja’Wuan James, who should be a massive im- provement over Jared Veldheer at right tackle, and look to get guard Ron Leary back from injury. Second-round pick Dalton Risner (Kansas State) is another rookie who should be starting from Day 1. He’ll be penciled in at guard, but he’s versatile enough to play anywhere along the line of scrimmage. Los- ing Matt Paradis hurts, but the offensive line could be much improved if all the “ifs” work out."
"Lock has a cannon for an arm and is willing to trust it to make the big throws, sometimes to his detriment. He’s mobile enough and has the pocket awareness to step up and avoid sacks. His feld vision is excellent as well, and he can quickly scan through and process coverages. He needs to work on his touch and accuracy, and his footwork could use an overhaul as well, but there are enough positives there to be worth considering.
Most importantly, he at least has the potential to be a long- term starter. Even if Flacco repeats his best season of the past four years in Denver, he’s still both old and mediocre. Flacco is not the quarterback who will take the Broncos back to the playoffs."
"The best thing Denver can do this season is evaluate and develop the young talent that will make up the core of the team for the next fve years...There's plenty of that young talent to go around."
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fi...sample_DEN.pdf
Very comprehensive analysis.
Here are some excerpts:
"We expect their defense to be downright average in 2019, and that defensive coordinator fip is a large part of it. It generally takes time to adapt to a new defensive coordinator and a new system, as the previous system’s square pegs fnd their places in the new scheme’s round holes. Fangio is no exception; it generally takes a couple seasons for his defenses to really start clicking (Table
1). Fangio’s frst year in Chicago saw the Bears rank 31st in DVOA, though the Bears were just a skosh less talented than last year’s Broncos were. There’s a foor to how bad a defense with this much talent can be, but some transitional pains are to be expected in 2019."
"Saying Joe Flacco is the pinnacle of mediocre is an insult to mediocrity, and has been for years. From 2015 through 2017, Flacco had negative double-digit passing DVOA, never rank- ing in the top 25 at the position. His 2018 season was his best in four years, and that saw him getting benched for a rookie quarterback whom the Ravens barely trusted to throw the ball."
"Flacco has now been below league average in adjusted net yards per attempt in each of the past four seasons, yet remained Baltimore’s starter. He is only the 11th quarterback since the merger to manage that extended feat of below-average play without getting benched, joining luminaries such as Mark Sanchez, Joey Har- rington, and Rick Mirer.
• Despite his reputation for being a solid deep-ball pass- er, Flacco regularly ranks near the bottom of our failed completion statistics. A failed completion is a dump-off or checkdown that doesn’t meaningfully advance the ball; think 2-yard screens on frst-and-10, or any third- down completion that ends short of the sticks. Flacco’s 2016 season had 144 failed completions, the all-time record. Second-place was Flacco’s 2017 season.
• Flacco’s pretty deep ball is often listed as one of his strengths, but it’s overstated. His average pass traveled 8.4 yards through the air in 2018, which ranked 13th in the league, but his average completion was went just 5.9 yards through the air, so there were a lot of beauti- ful deep balls bouncing off the turf—13.5 percent of his passes were listed as overthrown in 2018. Flacco ranked 28th out of 34 qualifed quarterbacks in DVOA on passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfeld, be- low such noted deep-ball slingers such as Nick Foles, Derek Carr, and—yes—Case Keenum."
"Elway’s response to all this is to claim that the 34-year-old Flacco is “just getting into his prime,” noting that he “plays the position exactly how [Denver] envisions it being played.” He points to Flacco’s decent 2014 season under Gary Kubiak as reason for optimism, as Scangarello’s offense will presum- ably be similar to Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which bears some resemblance to Kubiak’s system as Shanahan was Kubiak’s offensive coordinator for two years in Houston. That’s a game of telephone tag, not a reason for optimism, even when fltered through the lens of preseason platitudes. Flacco has been an anchor for Baltimore for years; there’s little reason to suspect that he’s going to have a breakout season and reverse years of decline just because his zip code changed."
"No, there’s no reason to suspect that the Broncos have licked their quarterback conundrum just yet, and the rest of their offense is more potential and possibility than it is a func- tioning NFL unit at this point in time. Combine that with some transitional pains on defense, and you get a very bleak picture for the 2019 Broncos."
"If sanity prevails, Flacco will at some point be benched for a rookie quarterback yet again in 2019."
Man, they are not going easy on us. But it can't all be bad, right? Here's some good stuff:
"The Broncos have a set of young skill players who could form the basis for a solid offense when a quarterback finally does arrive"
"Broncos also added Ja’Wuan James, who should be a massive im- provement over Jared Veldheer at right tackle, and look to get guard Ron Leary back from injury. Second-round pick Dalton Risner (Kansas State) is another rookie who should be starting from Day 1. He’ll be penciled in at guard, but he’s versatile enough to play anywhere along the line of scrimmage. Los- ing Matt Paradis hurts, but the offensive line could be much improved if all the “ifs” work out."
"Lock has a cannon for an arm and is willing to trust it to make the big throws, sometimes to his detriment. He’s mobile enough and has the pocket awareness to step up and avoid sacks. His feld vision is excellent as well, and he can quickly scan through and process coverages. He needs to work on his touch and accuracy, and his footwork could use an overhaul as well, but there are enough positives there to be worth considering.
Most importantly, he at least has the potential to be a long- term starter. Even if Flacco repeats his best season of the past four years in Denver, he’s still both old and mediocre. Flacco is not the quarterback who will take the Broncos back to the playoffs."
"The best thing Denver can do this season is evaluate and develop the young talent that will make up the core of the team for the next fve years...There's plenty of that young talent to go around."
Center, 3. OT
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