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Football Outsider's Comprehensive 2019 Denver Broncos Preview

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  • gtown53
    replied
    Joe Flacco went from a 10-6 and 9-7 team over the last 2 years to a 5-11 and 6-10 team that is talentless by comparison. So, assuming that Flacco is going to fail as a Bronco isn't exactly going out on a limb,, and to me is a complete joke. There were 2 QBs available that were an upgrade to Keenum. Those were Foles and Flacco. Both Superbowl winning QBs who were Superbowl MVPs. I would have preferred Foles simply because of his age. Lock is very likely out of the picture for this season because he couldn't stand up to the rigors of a simple preseason game without getting hurt. And now he can't even get the experience he needs so desperately. And our two backups are a complete joke.

    The question is, "Who would have been better for the Broncos than Flaccof?" It's easy and lazy to be critical, while it is infinitely more difficult to come up with an actual SOLUTION.

    Leave a comment:


  • brianmcfarlane
    replied
    [QUOTE=beastlyskronk;5823392]There’s a myriad of reasons why you can’t judge a player solely on stats. I love stats and think they provide a big clue into how well a player plays, however it is not the be all end all.

    Why is Flacco not completing these deeper passes? That’s the question that needs to be answered (by the coaches) and it can’t be answered by stats, well theoretically it could but that requires a lot of statistics, some that aren’t even being charted. Saying he struggled at passes over 15 yards is too vague to definitely state he’s bad at it. What coverage is the defense playing? Is it press of off coverage? How much separation was there between the target and the defender? Was there pressure or no? How close was the pressure if there was? Did Flacco step into the throw or did he not step into the throw? Is this a pass play that they’ve set up over the course of the game? Was the pass in a good spot for the WR? Did the WR drop it? Was there miscommunication and therefore the WR wasn’t close to the ball? Was it a good pass into a tight window where the WR just lost to the DB defending the pass? Is the WR good at catching contested passes or is that something he struggles with?... Quote)

    Or was there a holding call?

    Leave a comment:


  • Canmore
    replied
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    I agree. I say 7 to 9 wins. The defense will respond quicker than they think to the coaching change.
    Yes, it should.

    I'm in the 7 to 9 camp.

    When pinned down, I'm a homer and say 9.

    We still miss the playoffs.

    Leave a comment:


  • underrated29
    replied
    Originally posted by Bronco51 View Post
    Wait...did Bolles (or the O-Line) get markedly better? Same with the Kick/Punt returners?

    Bolles isn't that bad. So if you say did the oline get markedly better, yes. The answer is yes. Bolles is fine. Risner is a boss! James is a boss. That's a Markedly better OLine. Also, bolles while not amazing is not bad either. So its a definite yes.


    The returners though,
    God theyre bad. Everything not named Mcmanus and the long snapper, is bad on ST. Just trash.

    Leave a comment:


  • L.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    I mean, he is the weakest link on the team. This is more of an assessment of the entire team, and when their assessment is less than glowing it makes sense that a significant portion of their criticism is dedicated to the QB since said QB is a bottom 5 starter at the position.
    He may prove to be so, or he may not. The scientific mindset I prefer forms judgments and conclusions after the experiment, not before it.

    In NFL history there are players who improved on a new team, in a new system, and there are those who got worse or did about the same. We just have to wait and see what happens with JF.

    Leave a comment:


  • L.M.
    replied
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    This is an opinion and study based discussion piece from a 3rd party analysis company, not news nor a news source, and does not fit into this particular area of the forum. Why was it moved?
    Probably because your OP is still just an article. "For all articles, blogs, TV reports, sports articles, and other Bronco related items in the press." I've posted same (from F.O.) in this section as well.
    Last edited by L.M.; 08-28-2019, 02:08 PM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Papa-pwn
    replied
    This is an opinion and study based discussion piece from a 3rd party analysis company, not news nor a news source, and does not fit into this particular area of the forum. Why was it moved?

    Leave a comment:


  • Papa-pwn
    replied
    Originally posted by Bronco51 View Post
    Wait...did Bolles (or the O-Line) get markedly better? Same with the Kick/Punt returners?
    Bolles is not great, but he is a top 20 LT. Flacco is not a top 20 QB. Sure, the returners are less than desirable but in a pinch we'll just throw Lindsey or Sanders back there and they're better at that than Flacco at QB.

    Leave a comment:


  • beastlyskronk
    replied
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    What about the fact that Flacco just isnt good? Particularly at passes exceeding 15 yards.
    There’s a myriad of reasons why you can’t judge a player solely on stats. I love stats and think they provide a big clue into how well a player plays, however it is not the be all end all.

    Why is Flacco not completing these deeper passes? That’s the question that needs to be answered (by the coaches) and it can’t be answered by stats, well theoretically it could but that requires a lot of statistics, some that aren’t even being charted. Saying he struggled at passes over 15 yards is too vague to definitely state he’s bad at it. What coverage is the defense playing? Is it press of off coverage? How much separation was there between the target and the defender? Was there pressure or no? How close was the pressure if there was? Did Flacco step into the throw or did he not step into the throw? Is this a pass play that they’ve set up over the course of the game? Was the pass in a good spot for the WR? Did the WR drop it? Was there miscommunication and therefore the WR wasn’t close to the ball? Was it a good pass into a tight window where the WR just lost to the DB defending the pass? Is the WR good at catching contested passes or is that something he struggles with?

    Stats can illustrate many things, there was an article that came out about how Lamar Jackson had a better rookie season than guys like Manning, Luck, Darnold, and a bunch of other QBs and it was mainly based off YPA and QBR. But it doesn’t take into account the scheme that he played in and that it’s easier to complete passes when the entire defense is geared up to stop the run because they don’t respect his arm. If you only looked at the stats from Tebow’s first playoff game one might think he had a chance to be a decent QB.

    Would Rivers be considered an elite QB if he wasn’t able to dump off so many passes to his RBs for easy yards over the years? Would Brady be the GOAT if he wasn’t playing in a heavy short option route scheme with WRs he’s perfectly in sync with? What if Manning had played in the Kubiak offense his entire career, would he be considered the same QB he is now? The marriage of a QB to the scheme he is playing in and the WRs that he has with him can not be understated and as such you can’t definitively measure greatness off stats and stats alone. Brady to Welker, Edelman, and Gronk, Manning to Harrison, Wayne, and Clark, Rivers to LT and Gates where one of those guys has to be covered by a LB.

    And that leads me to this, who is Flacco’s versions of those guys? Well over the course of his career he’s had his best success with guys like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Smith all guys who excelled at catching contested passes and he’s had a dump off option in Ray Rice with some solid TE play as well. Do we have a veteran on this team that can catch contested passes? I think Sanders fits that mold, I think Sutton and Patrick can grow into that role as well. Do we have a reliable dump off option at RB? Phillip is electric in space so he’s a candidate, Booker and Riddick are proven threats out of the backfield so I would check that off as well. Do we have a solid TE? Not at all, hopefully someone steps up but we’re missing this big time. Good running game and a strong defense to go with all that and Flacco could have a bounce back season in the W/L column.

    Leave a comment:


  • Taos_Broncomaniac
    replied
    Originally posted by samparnell View Post
    I like to watch real football games played by real football players on a real football field using a real football, but that's just me.
    https://youtu.be/6bjnRrvx88Y

    Leave a comment:


  • Bronco51
    replied
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    I mean, he is the weakest link on the team. This is more of an assessment of the entire team, and when their assessment is less than glowing it makes sense that a significant portion of their criticism is dedicated to the QB since said QB is a bottom 5 starter at the position.
    Wait...did Bolles (or the O-Line) get markedly better? Same with the Kick/Punt returners?

    Leave a comment:


  • Spice 1
    replied
    Originally posted by Papa-pwn View Post
    What about the fact that Flacco just isnt good?
    Well, I mean, we can do that sure. But then I could go, "What about the fact that Flacco is a better quarterback than Case Keenum and Drew Lock right now?" I like to use stats too, but to do it right you have to compile a lot of data or you're going to be mislead.

    Leave a comment:


  • Papa-pwn
    replied
    Originally posted by underrated29 View Post
    Even with the defense transitioning, it is going to monumentally better than it was the year before under Joe woods and Vance. They completely missed their take on that one. That will prove to be their most innacurate stance that made.

    I agree that flacco and the offense will suck pretty well, just like always.

    We are better then a 6 win team. I do not know how much better, but better. Our team has the talent to be 12 wins, but we also have the newness of everything and flacco to have us at 8 wins.
    I agree. I say 7 to 9 wins. The defense will respond quicker than they think to the coaching change.

    Leave a comment:


  • underrated29
    replied
    Even with the defense transitioning, it is going to monumentally better than it was the year before under Joe woods and Vance. They completely missed their take on that one. That will prove to be their most innacurate stance that made.

    I agree that flacco and the offense will suck pretty well, just like always.

    We are better then a 6 win team. I do not know how much better, but better. Our team has the talent to be 12 wins, but we also have the newness of everything and flacco to have us at 8 wins.

    Leave a comment:


  • Papa-pwn
    replied
    Originally posted by Spice 1 View Post
    I guess I don't get it. Flacco was 13th last year in average intended air yards. Ahead of Rivers, Brady, Roethlisberger, Luck, Brees, Stafford, Newton, Cousins, Keenum, etc. I guess they're looking at average completed air yards, in which case he would have been ahead of all of those guys except Luck and Rivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston led the league in average completed air yards.

    I can't put numbers on scheme, so that makes me wonder what the deal is on catch rate of their top receivers.
    From most receptions to least:

    Evans 62%
    Humphries 72%
    Godwin 62%

    Snead 65%
    Crabtree 54%
    Brown 43%

    This might explain why both Winston and Fitzpatrick completed a lot of passes downfield, along with scheme, and losing virtually all of the time. That, or maybe they're both just awesome at throwing deep passes. Or just like to throw deep passes. Who knows. I'm probably not going to get that from staring at numbers unless I look at Fitzpatrick's passing history, Koetter and Monken's coaching history, '18 Buccaneer passing attempts, and game script. Even then, I'll probably just find out that it's a combination of all those things, which will put the kaibosh on using air yard stats to make conclusive quarterback comparisons altogether. And that might in turn hurt Football Outsider writer guy's feelings, so I'm going to leave that one alone.
    What about the fact that Flacco just isnt good? Particularly at passes exceeding 15 yards.
    Last edited by Papa-pwn; 08-28-2019, 12:04 PM.

    Leave a comment:

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