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Most Pro Days are now all basically over. The pieces have fallen into place, the majority of FA is done. This is my rough final mockdraft, it will only change due to trades, FA signings, or unexpected occurences (injuries, drug busts, important new info, etc..). It's time we self-proclaimed draft pundants start tossing up some rough final mocks. (Razor, myoung, Broncology, koolaid, DPg, and anyone else). The first round is pretty easy to predict now. I'm in the process of evaluating the 2nd. Don't do any projected trades yet.
1) San Francisco 49ers select WR Braylon Edwards
Why: Tim Rattay had a 95 rating before suffering his forearm injury and eventually needing surgery. This was despite having absolutely no WRs and a terrible O-line. Add to that the defection of their best WR (Wilson) to the Steelers and its an easier pick then many think. The 49ers also have several young QBs on the roster from previous drafts for depth but Rattay has great potential if he gets some weapons. If the 49ers draft a QB, they will be in the same situation as the Chargers because Rattay is very good.
2) Miami Dolphins select RB Ronnie Brown
Why: They need a power back who can catch. Both Brown and Benson can do that, Brown is faster and has the best RB hands in the draft. Not to mention he has considerably less “tread on the tires”. No-brainer pick after his combine and Benson’s average Pro Day..
3) Cleveland Browns select LB Derrick Johnson
Why: Cleveland has a solid 3 man line but one 1 solid LB (Davis) and three question marks. Crennel is a defensive minded coach that knows how important LBs are from his days at New England. Derrick Johnson is the best LB to come along in quite awhile. With Luke McCown being drafted last draft and showing potential and Trent Dilfer guiding the ship until he is ready, there is no need for another young QB, especially when neither of the two are considered special. A QB here makes more sense then with SF though.
4) Chicago Bears select WR Mike Williams
Why: Thomas Jones was fantastic in his first year of a long term contract, all the Bears hoped for and more. They don’t need a RB. They don’t need a QB with Grossman and Hutchinson on the roster. What they need is somebody to pair with Muhammed to catch the ball now that they’ve released David Terrell. Muhammed and Williams are two extremely tall WRs that will drive teams nuts in the redzone.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers select RB Cadillac Williams
Why: They wanted Mike Williams, no dice. The pick becomes Troy Williamson, Cedric Benson, or Cadillac Williams. I’ll go with Williams due to the familiarity that Gruden has with him from the Senior Bowl and the absolute looniness that Gruden raved about him with. Pittman is serviceable and Garner’s career may be done.
6) Tennessee Titans select CB Adam Jones
Why: He’s the most complete CB in this draft and they need an immediate starter as they lost both CBs in FA and have no depth. Jones also provides a return element though the team may be too thin at CB to risk him there this season.
7) Minnesota Vikings select DE David Pollack
Why: They have no pressing need to sign a WR having signed up Travis Taylor and having the 18th pick in the first round to address the need. This is too early for Williamson though they have targeted him. Pollack is the best pass rushing DE in this draft, he also impressed at LB drills as well. He gives the team a young pass rusher to complement Udeze and Johnstone. Pollack is the quickest D-lineman that has ever been officially timed. (3.9 short shuttle).
8) Arizona Cardinals select QB Alex Smith
Why: Dennis Green is not sold on McCown and has released backup Shaun King. Alex Smith is the best QB prospect in this draft in large part due to his intelligence and scrambling ability. Arizona will trade Shelton for Travis Henry before the draft, count on it.
9) Washington Redskins select CB Carlos Rogers
Why: They need an immediate starter and Rogers is perhaps the most polished CB in this draft. He is firmly ahead of Antrel Rolle after his Pro Day “wowed” scouts. DE is also a consideration but the team has veterans who can at least fill in. They do not have any CB’s capable of starting, Walt Harris is a nickel back at best.
10) Detroit Lions select OT Alex Barron
Why: They need a starting RT immediately and someone to groom for the future at LT. Jeff Backus has been above average, but he is far from elite. Barron should be able to step in and play allowing the team to keep untested Kelly Butler as depth. The other choice here is a DE, but I think the need at OT is more glaring.
11) Dallas Cowboys select QB Aaron Rodgers
Why: Its obvious that Drew Henson is not going to be the guy. He’s old for a developmental prospect and Parcells does not think he is good. Bill won’t be around that much longer so this is more a pick for Jerry Jones who understands that the franchise must develop talent for the future. With two 1st round picks, Parcells won’t complain too much.
12) San Diego Chargers select WR Troy Williamson
Why: Having booted Tim Dwight and with the injury problems of Reche Caldwell, the team picks up Williamson to add height and speed to the WR corps. Williamson also has experience returning kicks so he can take Tim Dwight’s old role as he learns the offense. SD tried very hard to land Allen Rossom but failed, a KR is a need.
13) Houston Texans select OT Jamal Brown
Why: They tried to give the Rams two 1st round picks for Orlando Pace. Do you think there’s a need at LT? Brown is a very good OT, considered the best pass blocker in this draft, that will help protect David Carr’s blindside immediately or close to it.
14) Carolina Panthers select RB Cedric Benson
Why: With Stephen Davis possibly never being able to recover from his knee injury and DeShaun Foster in a similar situation with his injury, this team needs a workhorse RB pronto. Nick Goings was admirable filling in but he is not the answer. Benson has a lot of wear and tear on his body but he is good value at this point in the round.
15) Kansas City Chiefs select CB Antrel Rolle
Why: They need a lot of CB help and have said all along they are drafting a CB if the talent is there in the 1st round. Rolle is the last of the top tier of CBs and would immediately give the Chiefs a nickel presence. Look for him to win a starting job by midseason from Warfield if Law is signed. If not, he will be starting from training camp opposite Warfield.
1) San Francisco 49ers select WR Braylon Edwards
Why: Tim Rattay had a 95 rating before suffering his forearm injury and eventually needing surgery. This was despite having absolutely no WRs and a terrible O-line. Add to that the defection of their best WR (Wilson) to the Steelers and its an easier pick then many think. The 49ers also have several young QBs on the roster from previous drafts for depth but Rattay has great potential if he gets some weapons. If the 49ers draft a QB, they will be in the same situation as the Chargers because Rattay is very good.
2) Miami Dolphins select RB Ronnie Brown
Why: They need a power back who can catch. Both Brown and Benson can do that, Brown is faster and has the best RB hands in the draft. Not to mention he has considerably less “tread on the tires”. No-brainer pick after his combine and Benson’s average Pro Day..
3) Cleveland Browns select LB Derrick Johnson
Why: Cleveland has a solid 3 man line but one 1 solid LB (Davis) and three question marks. Crennel is a defensive minded coach that knows how important LBs are from his days at New England. Derrick Johnson is the best LB to come along in quite awhile. With Luke McCown being drafted last draft and showing potential and Trent Dilfer guiding the ship until he is ready, there is no need for another young QB, especially when neither of the two are considered special. A QB here makes more sense then with SF though.
4) Chicago Bears select WR Mike Williams
Why: Thomas Jones was fantastic in his first year of a long term contract, all the Bears hoped for and more. They don’t need a RB. They don’t need a QB with Grossman and Hutchinson on the roster. What they need is somebody to pair with Muhammed to catch the ball now that they’ve released David Terrell. Muhammed and Williams are two extremely tall WRs that will drive teams nuts in the redzone.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers select RB Cadillac Williams
Why: They wanted Mike Williams, no dice. The pick becomes Troy Williamson, Cedric Benson, or Cadillac Williams. I’ll go with Williams due to the familiarity that Gruden has with him from the Senior Bowl and the absolute looniness that Gruden raved about him with. Pittman is serviceable and Garner’s career may be done.
6) Tennessee Titans select CB Adam Jones
Why: He’s the most complete CB in this draft and they need an immediate starter as they lost both CBs in FA and have no depth. Jones also provides a return element though the team may be too thin at CB to risk him there this season.
7) Minnesota Vikings select DE David Pollack
Why: They have no pressing need to sign a WR having signed up Travis Taylor and having the 18th pick in the first round to address the need. This is too early for Williamson though they have targeted him. Pollack is the best pass rushing DE in this draft, he also impressed at LB drills as well. He gives the team a young pass rusher to complement Udeze and Johnstone. Pollack is the quickest D-lineman that has ever been officially timed. (3.9 short shuttle).
8) Arizona Cardinals select QB Alex Smith
Why: Dennis Green is not sold on McCown and has released backup Shaun King. Alex Smith is the best QB prospect in this draft in large part due to his intelligence and scrambling ability. Arizona will trade Shelton for Travis Henry before the draft, count on it.
9) Washington Redskins select CB Carlos Rogers
Why: They need an immediate starter and Rogers is perhaps the most polished CB in this draft. He is firmly ahead of Antrel Rolle after his Pro Day “wowed” scouts. DE is also a consideration but the team has veterans who can at least fill in. They do not have any CB’s capable of starting, Walt Harris is a nickel back at best.
10) Detroit Lions select OT Alex Barron
Why: They need a starting RT immediately and someone to groom for the future at LT. Jeff Backus has been above average, but he is far from elite. Barron should be able to step in and play allowing the team to keep untested Kelly Butler as depth. The other choice here is a DE, but I think the need at OT is more glaring.
11) Dallas Cowboys select QB Aaron Rodgers
Why: Its obvious that Drew Henson is not going to be the guy. He’s old for a developmental prospect and Parcells does not think he is good. Bill won’t be around that much longer so this is more a pick for Jerry Jones who understands that the franchise must develop talent for the future. With two 1st round picks, Parcells won’t complain too much.
12) San Diego Chargers select WR Troy Williamson
Why: Having booted Tim Dwight and with the injury problems of Reche Caldwell, the team picks up Williamson to add height and speed to the WR corps. Williamson also has experience returning kicks so he can take Tim Dwight’s old role as he learns the offense. SD tried very hard to land Allen Rossom but failed, a KR is a need.
13) Houston Texans select OT Jamal Brown
Why: They tried to give the Rams two 1st round picks for Orlando Pace. Do you think there’s a need at LT? Brown is a very good OT, considered the best pass blocker in this draft, that will help protect David Carr’s blindside immediately or close to it.
14) Carolina Panthers select RB Cedric Benson
Why: With Stephen Davis possibly never being able to recover from his knee injury and DeShaun Foster in a similar situation with his injury, this team needs a workhorse RB pronto. Nick Goings was admirable filling in but he is not the answer. Benson has a lot of wear and tear on his body but he is good value at this point in the round.
15) Kansas City Chiefs select CB Antrel Rolle
Why: They need a lot of CB help and have said all along they are drafting a CB if the talent is there in the 1st round. Rolle is the last of the top tier of CBs and would immediately give the Chiefs a nickel presence. Look for him to win a starting job by midseason from Warfield if Law is signed. If not, he will be starting from training camp opposite Warfield.
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