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First Round Mock Draft

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  • Mat'hir Uth Gan
    replied
    Originally posted by jletourneau
    Kiper was not speaking to his previous injury concerns, but to something that appears to be new since his pro day. Kiper had him in the first round as well until this last week. I am aware of his past, but Kiper was bringing up something new that had just depleted his stock among teams. I wish I had or knew more details, but that's it. You said yourself and I believe most would agree that Kiper is one of the very best. There is a great chance he knows something we don't. Durability as you pointed out is not a new concern with Crowder, but Kiper would not be dropping him this far suddenly without good reason. Something may have happened since his great pro day.

    http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=7634 (chat index below)

    "Florida boy(Las Vegas,NV): where do u think crowder from the university of Florida will fall in the draft? 1st or 2nd???

    Mel Kiper: I'd say Channing goes 3rd to 5th round ... and that's a big change from before his injury and durability concerns. I had him in the first or second, now I'd say third or fourth for Crowder. "

    Kiper does a good job with his absolute final projection but until then he's a mess. However, I agree, something must have come up because that is one hell of a drastic drop for the top MLB in the draft.

    Leave a comment:


  • jletourneau
    replied
    Originally posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan
    The injury concerns are not new. Some teams have been concerned about his knees for awhile. He checked out fine in his Pro Day and kicked butt on the agility drills. I think its a red herring that New England is stirring up so that he will drop.
    Kiper was not speaking to his previous injury concerns, but to something that appears to be new since his pro day. Kiper had him in the first round as well until this last week. I am aware of his past, but Kiper was bringing up something new that had just depleted his stock among teams. I wish I had or knew more details, but that's it. You said yourself and I believe most would agree that Kiper is one of the very best. There is a great chance he knows something we don't. Durability as you pointed out is not a new concern with Crowder, but Kiper would not be dropping him this far suddenly without good reason. Something may have happened since his great pro day.

    http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=7634 (chat index below)

    "Florida boy(Las Vegas,NV): where do u think crowder from the university of Florida will fall in the draft? 1st or 2nd???

    Mel Kiper: I'd say Channing goes 3rd to 5th round ... and that's a big change from before his injury and durability concerns. I had him in the first or second, now I'd say third or fourth for Crowder. "

    Leave a comment:


  • madmax
    replied
    definitely like the pick of Spears for the Broncos...

    Leave a comment:


  • Mat'hir Uth Gan
    replied
    The injury concerns are not new. Some teams have been concerned about his knees for awhile. He checked out fine in his Pro Day and kicked butt on the agility drills. I think its a red herring that New England is stirring up so that he will drop.

    Leave a comment:


  • PsychoChicken
    replied
    Originally posted by jletourneau
    Up until yesterday, I would have been shocked like you that the Seahawks would pass on Crowder as he is a perfect fit in scheme and need for them. However, according to Mel Kiper yesterday in his weekly chat, some new injury concerns have arose about Crowder and have him falling well out of the first round.
    Yeah, I had the Seahawks taking Crowder up until I heard about that this morning. I had no idea it was severe enough to knock him out of the first round entirely, though.

    Originally posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan
    Actually I lied, there is one other issue. The Cardinals will trade LJ Shelton to the Bills for Travis Henry before everything is said and done. The Bills are playing hardball atm, but with Henry threatening to sit out, they will break down soon. They need a LT and the Cardinals have already ok'd the deal. Shelton is great value at 3 mil per season and locked up for several years.
    Thanks for the update. I thought that trade had fallen through, but apparently not. If that trade becomes official, I plan on editing my mock draft so the Cardinals take a QB. Anyway, thanks for the critique.

    Leave a comment:


  • jletourneau
    replied
    Crowder

    Originally posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan
    I really liked your presentation, very well done. I think each of your picks is a legit possibility. Vastly similar to what I'm forecasting as well with a few nips and tucks.


    The one thing I disagree on is the Lions not having a DE already on the roster:
    James Hall had 50 tackles, 12 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. You could almost argue he outplayed Shaun Rogers, but not quite.


    Actually I lied, there is one other issue. The Cardinals will trade LJ Shelton to the Bills for Travis Henry before everything is said and done. The Bills are playing hardball atm, but with Henry threatening to sit out, they will break down soon. They need a LT and the Cardinals have already ok'd the deal. Shelton is great value at 3 mil per season and locked up for several years.


    Ok, I really lied. Last critique. The Seahawks singed Bryce Fisher for a fairly large amount of money to start at DE opposite of Wistrom. They also cut their best LB in Anthony Simmons and Chad Brown can barely stay healthy. If the Seahawks pass up Channing Crowder, I will be completely stunned.
    Up until yesterday, I would have been shocked like you that the Seahawks would pass on Crowder as he is a perfect fit in scheme and need for them. However, according to Mel Kiper yesterday in his weekly chat, some new injury concerns have arose about Crowder and have him falling well out of the first round.

    I'm not sure on all the specifics, but this would leave the door open at MLB where the early round talent is minimal. O'dell Thurman to me is at best a mid 2nd because of his size, and B. Ruud is climbing. I have heard however that the Patriots with the uncertainty of Bruschi are very high on Ruud, it would remain to be seen whether they would stretch far enough to select him at 32 to assure his availability. If it is true that Crowder's stock has been hurt by injury, it really leaves the Seahawks pick in an indefinite position with the signings of Jurevicius and B. Fisher. Perhaps M. Patterson or L. Castillo will continue their climb to 23.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mat'hir Uth Gan
    replied
    I really liked your presentation, very well done. I think each of your picks is a legit possibility. Vastly similar to what I'm forecasting as well with a few nips and tucks.


    The one thing I disagree on is the Lions not having a DE already on the roster:
    James Hall had 50 tackles, 12 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. You could almost argue he outplayed Shaun Rogers, but not quite.


    Actually I lied, there is one other issue. The Cardinals will trade LJ Shelton to the Bills for Travis Henry before everything is said and done. The Bills are playing hardball atm, but with Henry threatening to sit out, they will break down soon. They need a LT and the Cardinals have already ok'd the deal. Shelton is great value at 3 mil per season and locked up for several years.


    Ok, I really lied. Last critique. The Seahawks singed Bryce Fisher for a fairly large amount of money to start at DE opposite of Wistrom. They also cut their best LB in Anthony Simmons and Chad Brown can barely stay healthy. If the Seahawks pass up Channing Crowder, I will be completely stunned.

    Leave a comment:


  • PsychoChicken
    replied
    15. Kansas City Chiefs select...CB Carlos Rogers, Auburn
    Kansas City would be an NFL powerhouse if they ever get a defensive line, linebacking core, and secondary. In other words, their defense sucks. All they have done this year is sign Kendrell Bell, who should not have even passed his physical. Carlos Rogers may well be the second best cornerback in the draft, and gives the Chiefs some security when they face the potent pass offenses of the AFC West. He has excellent mechanics, runs a 4.35 40, and a 3.8 short shuttle.

    16. New Orleans Saints select…QB Aaron Rodgers, California
    Most people project Aaron Rodgers at #1 and I’m projecting him at #16. I am neither stoned nor drunk nor high. Rodgers would probably be in the 20s in most other drafts, but the only other good quarterback in this draft is Alex Smith. The Saints’ confidence in Aaron Brooks is beginning to wane, so they draft someone to compete, and hopefully defeat Brooks. Besides, the safety they probably want, Davis, is gone by now.

    17. Cincinnati Bengals select…DT Travis Johnson, Florida State
    The Bengals have made it pretty obvious that this is the guy they want. He fills the biggest need on the defense for Marvin Lewis, a run-stopping, hole-filling defensive tackle who can also rush the passer and sack a few times. Travis Johnson has above average strength for a defensive tackle and a good initial burst. He has also shown a good reaction time, as he often gets off the line just as the ball is snapped. This allows him to make impressive plays.

    18. Minnesota Vikings select…DE David Pollack, Georgia
    The Vikings are thrilled that the fast defensive end has dropped to them. Pollack is undersized, underweight, and short-armed. This would spell ‘B-U-S-T’ if not for his incredible speed, acceleration, and ability to change direction. Pollack is one of the most intense football players in the draft, second only to Matt Roth. He has heart, leadership skills, and will perfect the Vikings defensive line alongside Williams and Udeze.

    19. St. Louis Rams select…OT Khalif Barnes, Washington
    With the imminent loss of Kyle Turley, the Rams have a huge need on the right side of the offensive line. There should be little doubt that they will draft the best available tackle here. Khalif Barnes and Orlando Pace will become the premier tackle tandem in the league. Barnes has average strength, but he moves along the line well. He can make up for blown blocks with his speed, and should be an asset in downfield blocking.

    20. Dallas Cowboys select…DE Erasmus James, Wisconsin
    Coach Bill Parcells is well-known for taking athletic pass rushing defensive ends. The Cowboys lack a pass rusher because Marcellus Wiley has really stunk up the field. Erasmus James is the natural choice here. He has 4.7 speed and made a real splash in the NCAA as one of the best pass rushers. Because of his speed, it is difficult for huge linemen to block him. The only problem is he had a hip injury in the past, which is why he drops this far.

    21. Jacksonville Jaguars select…DE Dan Cody, Oklahoma
    Last year, the Jaguars had practically no production from their defensive ends. They are quickly fixing those issues. The Jaguars signed pass rushing specialist Reggie Hayward early in free agency and will complete their defensive line with the selection of Cody. He may not have the best measurables, but he makes up for them by relentlessly chasing after the football. Cody is solid in pass rush mode and against the run.

    22. Baltimore Ravens select…WR Mark Clayton, Oklahoma
    Kyle Boller apparently is not all he was cracked up to be, but Brian Billick seems to believe in him. The Ravens already have a solid defense, offensive line, and running game. To help the passing game, they signed Derrick Mason and his 96 catches from the Titans. However, they lost Travis Taylor, so Mark Clayton seems like a good option to replace him. Clayton is undersized, but he has the vertical jump to make up for it. He has great technique, runs routes, and is an elite receiver after the catch.

    23. Seattle Seahawks select…DE Matt Roth, Iowa
    The Seahawks lost their pass rusher, Chike Okeafor, to the Cardinals in free agency. His replacement will be a similar player in Matt Roth. Roth plays with what might be the most effort I have ever seen in a defensive lineman. He is relentless as a pass rusher and recording multiple sacks at the Senior Bowl. He is also an asset in the running game, rather than a weakness. His biggest weaknesses are his lack of size and pass rushing technique.

    24. Green Bay Packers select…S Brodney Pool, Oklahoma
    Brodney Pool fills a hole on the Packers that resulted from the release of Darren Sharper and loss of Bwahoe Jue. Pool is the best free safety in the draft. He is one of the few safeties that can match up man-to-man with a wide receiver in corner blitz plays. Pool is also physical and willingly makes plays in run support. He will definitely improve the secondary that has gone from bad to worse this offseason.

    25. Denver Broncos select…DE Marcus Spears, LSU
    This is beginning to look like the obvious pick for the Broncos. Though Spears was once considered a top 10 pick and the best lineman in the draft, the torn meniscus in his knee will scare teams into drafting other linemen. Spears will replace Trevor Pryce, who had better be traded eventually. He essentially is Trevor Pryce, a large DE/DT who has great athleticism despite being around 300 pounds. Whether in the 3-4 or 4-3, Spears will accumulate his fair share of tackles in the run game, and might get 5 or 6 sacks a year.

    26. New York Jets select…CB Justin Miller, Clemson
    The Jets two biggest needs this offseason are tight end and cornerback. The Jets will have to choose between two Millers: Heath and Justin. They take Justin mostly because of Heath’s sports hernia, which may prevent Heath from producing early in the season. Justin Miller is an excellent player, though. He was Clemson’s best player last year, serving as their shutdown corner. Miller is fast and changes direction with ease. His weakness is that he takes too many risks.

    27. Atlanta Falcons select…DT Luis Castillo, Northwestern
    Luis Castillo is just shooting up the draft boards, and I would not doubt some teams would pick him over Travis Johnson or a healthy Shaun Cody. Castillo has insane speed for a 300+ pound guy, and shows great quickness. He is a former wrestler, which means he has a good amount of moves in his possession. Luis Castillo will probably replace Ed Jasper at defensive tackle; the Falcons will probably lose Jasper in free agency.

    28. San Diego Chargers select…WR Roddy White, UAB
    The Chargers could not get Troy Williamson, like they probably wanted, but they will get the last true first round receiver prospect: Roddy White. The Chargers do not have any great receivers; they only have average guys like McCardell, Parker, and Caldwell. Roddy White will serve as the deep threat for the Chargers. He runs routes well enough and plays even faster than his 40 time of 4.45 would dictate. On the downside, he hardly blocks is kind of small.

    29. Indianapolis Colts select…CB Fabian Washington, Nebraska
    The Colts are like the Chiefs, only their offense and defense are both a little better. That doesn’t mean their defense is any good, however, it still sucks. As a result, the Colts fill in their need at corner with the fastest prospect since Joey Galloway. Washington is a real burner, but even more impressive than his straight-line speed is his playmaking ability. Washington may well lead the league in deflected passes and interceptions some day. Like many corners, he often takes too many gambles.

    30. Pittsburgh Steelers select…WR Vincent Jackson, Northern Colorado
    Pittsburgh is in love with Vincent Jackson. They don’t have a real need at receiver, even with the loss of Burress, because Randle-El can step in for him. Still, Pittsburgh would love to use Vincent Jackson as a slot receiver or tight end to create mismatches. Jackson is too fast for linebackers and strong safeties, but he is too big for corners and free safeties. He will be a very easy target for Ben Roethlisberger.

    31. Philadelphia Eagles select…DT Mike Patterson, USC
    Whether or not the Eagles lose DT Corey Simon, the Eagles could use another middle man. Mike Patterson might turn out to be the best defensive tackle in the NFL, because aside from his size, he has all the tools. He is under 300 pounds and stands just 6 feet tall, but his strength is incredible. Patterson is the quintessential pocket-collapsing lineman. Simply watching USC game film reveals that Patterson, not Cody or Udeze, has been the Trojans’ best DL.

    32. New England Patriots select…MLB Channing Crowder, Florida
    Tedy Bruschi is in question for next season after having a mild stroke. Whether or not he returns next season still does not change the fact that two MLBs play in the 3-4. Currently, the Patriots’ second MLB is either Ted Johnson or Dan Klecko. While both are okay players, Channing Crowder is massively talented. He is only a redshirt sophomore, so he has a lot of potential. It is difficult to argue with his production as a Gator.

    Leave a comment:


  • PsychoChicken
    started a topic First Round Mock Draft

    First Round Mock Draft

    This mock draft is by yours truly. I made a preliminary one soon after the combine, and have made the necessary changes due to free agency and pro days.

    Here is my mock draft. I am making the assumption that neither the 49ers nor the Browns will take a quarterback because neither quarterback is top 10 material in my opinion. That makes the top 5 relatively easy to predict. After that, the entire draft is a crap shoot.

    1. San Francisco 49ers select....WR Braylon Edwards, Michigan
    This is looking more and more like the obvious pick for the 49ers. Most mock drafts have them taking a quarterback, but that's just a load of bull if you ask me. It is too early to give up on Tim Rattay, considering his only true weakness is an injury risk. Considering his best receiver was probably Brandon Lloyd, a late draft pick from 2003, he managed to perform on a high level. The 49ers need to help their quarterback, not bench him. Braylon Edwards is the best WR in the draft and is deserving of being picked first overall. He is great as both a deep threat and as a possession receiver.

    2. Miami Dolphins select...RB Ronnie Brown, Auburn
    This has been the consensus pick ever since late February, when Ronnie Brown tore up the combine with incredible workouts. He is faster, stronger, and bigger than both Carnell Williams and Cedric Benson. Anyone who weighs 230-some pounds and runs a 4.32 40 is a freak of nature, which the Dolphins need in Ronnie Brown now that their other freak of nature running back is supposedly trying his best to give up marijuana.

    3. Cleveland Browns select...LB Derrick Johnson, Texas
    Derrick Johnson is the best linebacker that college football has ever seen, possibly in a decade. He can run sideline-to-sideline to break up plays, drop back in pass coverage, and even rush the passer on occasion. He is not only a solid, surefire tackler, but he'll knock out the football and jump on it. Many mock drafts have the Browns taking a QB but all indications from Romeo Crennel are that the Browns will draft a defender. This may be some sort of trick, but for now, I'm buying it. He is just a great prospect overall.

    4. Chicago Bears select...WR Mike Williams, USC
    The Bears almost breathe a sigh of relief that they are not forced to draft another Michigan wideout. Instead, they get the arguably the best wide receiver prospect in the draft, a guy that has good speed and a high vertical jump to go along with his 6'5" frame. Mike Williams has all the measurables and the only question lingering around him is that he took a year off from football because some major league a-holes from the NCAA could not find it in there hearts to grant him eligibility. His character and work ethic are very good. After being denied the NFL draft, he returned to school and achieved high grades in hopes of playing again. For one year, Williams has been working hard for the combine and his pro day, and his workouts are a testament to his effort. He deserves to be a top 5 pick.

    5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select...RB Carnell Williams, Auburn
    Jon Gruden coached a team in the Senior Bowl in hopes of finding a prospect he liked. He found Carnell Williams, the greater of Auburn's two-headed monster at running back. Carnell Williams tore up practices with his hard cuts and bruising style. Some state that despite weighing nearly 30 pounds less than Ronnie Brown, he plays like he is bigger than Brown. Gruden was so impressed with Williams, he decided not to let him play much in the Senior Bowl in order to keep him somewhat of a secret to other teams. Thus is Williams an obvious pick for the Buccaneers.

    6. Tennessee Titans select...CB Pac-Man Jones, West Virginia
    He is the best cornerback prospect in this draft, and should be available at number 6. As it so happens, the Titans lost both Samari Rolle and Andre Dyson and are quickly becoming a model of exactly why every player's contract should not be insanely backloaded. Jones is fast, explosive, and can make up a step or two if beaten downfield. His vertical jump is very good, and that helps alleviate for his lack of height in jump ball situations. The only other real possibility for the Titans is to take one of the top 2 quarterbacks, since Steve McNair's body is breaking down. However, the Titans probably realize they'll have the top overall pick next year, so they can easily take Matt Leinart.

    7. Minnesota Vikings select...WR Troy Williamson, South Carolina
    If the draft goes the way I have it going, then Minnesota will really be disappointed. The fact that two teams ahead of them have wide receiver needs means that the Vikings won't get their guy: Mike Williams. They still have a glaring need at wide receiver because they lost Randy Moss and did not sign Plaxico Burress. Troy Williamson is a reach at this pick but he has good measurables. He looks incredibly lean and fit, runs in the 4.3s. He is comparable to Ashley Lelie, in that he is a one dimensional deep threat. That's how he was able to produce in spite of being in the Gamecocks run offense.

    8. Arizona Cardinals select...RB Cedric Benson, Texas
    Emmitt Smith is done, and by now it is clear that Marcel Shipp really isn't that good. Running back and cornerback are probably the largest positions of need. This might also be a good place to insert Aaron Rodgers, but the Cardinals seem content with Kurt Warner. Cedric Benson is still firmly amongst the top 3 running backs, but the Auburn guys have separated themselves from Benson. Still, Cedric Benson is a power running back with a good initial burst, and he has shown he can improvise and find other holes when plays break down. He will be the star and the future of the Cardinals.

    9. Washington Redskins select...CB Antrel Rolle, Miami
    It was either him or Carlos Rogers. Many people have jumped on the Carlos Rogers bandwagon, and the Redskins may be included in that group. I have heard about Rogers' great pro day, but I have not seen it, so I am not inclined to use it in my judgments. I have seen a few highlight tapes and actual games from both corners and decided Antrel Rolle is the better corner. He is the quintessential bump-and-run corner, but has adequate deep speed. That's exactly the kind of guy teams want: a corner that delays routes in the first five yards, then shuts receivers down beyond five yards.

    10. Detroit Lions select...DE Shawne Merriman, Maryland
    The Lions have two pressing needs: tackle and defensive end. After having a look at the Lions roster, I have come to the conclusion that defensive end is the more pressing need. They have no ends that can start, and by drafting Merriman, they'll at least have one. Shawne Merriman will be a great right end in the league. He has that combination of strength and speed that all teams want in their pass rushers. The Lions should be content with having a defensive line containing Shawne Merriman and Shaun Rogers, rather than just Shaun Rogers alone.

    11. Dallas Cowboys select...QB Alex Smith, Utah
    This is the perfect place to drop a quarterback. The Cowboys may prefer veterans, but Alex Smith has the potential to become a franchise quarterback if put in the right situation. He is extremely smart, which Parcells must like. He scored in the 40s on the Wonderlic test and got his degree before his junior year. In his workouts, he proved he has arm strength and accuracy, even though he didn't have any pass rush pressure on him. Most importantly, Smith is a leader. Smith was definitely the most important player in Utah's undefeated BCS run.

    12. San Diego Chargers select...OT Alex Barron, Florida State
    The Chargers, despite having a good year, have three specific positions of need: tackle, safety, and wide receiver. The best players still available at those respective positions are Barron, Thomas Davis, and Mark Clayton. The Chargers choose the best player of those: Barron. Alex Barron is clearly the best tackle in the league; he shocked the scouts at his pro day with a stellar 40 time and a solid short shuttle. By pick number 12, he has immense value as he is the kind of left tackle most teams desire.

    13. Houston Texans select...OT Jammal Brown, Oklahoma
    Jammal Brown has perfect agility for a tackle in zone blocking scheme, which the Texans employed last year. He excels in both pass and run blocking, having paved the way for both Jason White and freshman sensation Adrian Peterson. Because of his speed, Brown translates to left tackle for the Texans, even though he played right tackle for the Sooners. Jammal Brown will be the starting left tackle for the next 10 years on the Texans offense, and I firmly believe he will be have multiple Pro Bowl appearances during the course of his career.

    14. Carolina Panthers select...S Thomas Davis, Georgia
    Carolina's biggest needs are safety and linebacker. Thomas Davis projects to either one of those positions, most likely as a strong safety because of his speed. Considering he weighs in the mid-230s, Thomas Davis has 4.55 speed and can lay down a huge hit. I kind of wish he would be drafted in the AFC so he could lay one on Dallas Clark. The Panthers have the best pass rush in the NFL, however, and that may allow Davis to excel as a playmaking linebacker. Either way, Thomas Davis fills a need for the Panthers.
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