Draft Picking Ability

[BroncoDefense]

After contemplating the Draft, I got to thinking about how poorly the Broncos are percieved at drafting. So, I decided to compare our drafts with the Patriots to see how we fared. To try and get a better grasp of this, I ranked players by the grade I would give them now (see below). Tom Brady gets the only A+. A s are given to pro-bowl players (except Deltha O'neal, who gets a B- for being a one hit wonder), quality starters an A-, contributors a B, isn't in the league or has done absolutely nothing an F. (I admit some of my patriot rankings could be off because I'm not as familiar. I checked on NFL.com to see what the guys had done as far as starts or if still in the league.) The 2004 projections are early, but I did this for 2000-2004.

Next I decided to wieght the picks, inversely proportional to the round they were picked in. So, Tom Brady, picked in the 6th is wieghted 1/6 of his grade. Some of you might object to this, but I figure a late round guy is as much luck as it is skill at picking a player. After all, they did pass on him in 5 other rounds. Then I give a simple average (x10) of the wieghted grades.

For explanatory purposes, a grade of 10 is a phenomenal draft. Here's how it breakes down:


Year Broncos Pats
2000 8.4 2.6
2001 8.6 6.7
2002 9.5 13.1
2003 5.6 9.5
2004 7.3 1.8

The Pats had a great year in 2002, a simply amazing draft. Denver's best year was 2002 as well (remember Lelie, Portis, Putzier, Pope). A couple things to note: First, the Pats do not seem to beat the Broncs year in and year out in the draft. Second, looking at this I would not conclude that Shanahan is a piss-poor drafter. True, we aren't getting DL, but we are getting quality with our picks. Third, early judgements of drafts are very misleading. I remember in 2003 loving the picks of Eason and Mitchell, for example, but niether did anything. Last year I remember the Watts pick, and not having any idea who he is--seems to be turning out okay now. This year, I was very surprised by the CBs, but hey, they could turn out okay as well, after all, Shanny's not a bad drafter.

I appreciate comments, suggestions, or if you just think I'm full of it. Anyway, thought I'd share with you all.

DATA:

New England Patriots

2000 Draft Picks
Player Pos Round My Grade
Adrian Klemm OT 2 B-
J.R. Redmond HB 3 F
Greg Robinson-Randall OT 4 F
Dave Stachelski TE 5 F
Jeff Marriott DT 5 F
Antwan Harris CB 6 F
Tom Brady QB 6 A+
David Nugent DT 6 F
Casey Tisdale OLB 7 F
Patrick Pass HB 7 B

2001 Draft Picks
Richard Seymour DT 1 A
Matt Light OT 2 A
Kenyatta Jones OG 4 F
Jabari Holloway TE 4 F
Hakim Akbar S 5 F
Arthur Love TE 6 F
Leonard Myers CB 6 F
Owen Pochman PK 7 F
T.J. Turner ILB 7 F

2002 Draft Picks
Dan Graham TE 1 A-
Deion Branch WR 2 A
Rohan Davey QB 4 B
Jarvis Green DE 4 A-
Antwoine Womack HB 7 F
David Givens WR 7 A-

2003 Draft Picks
Ty Warren DT 1 A-
Eugene Wilson CB 2 A-
Bethel Johnson WR 2 B
Dan Klecko DT 4 B+
Asante Samuel CB 4 A-
Dan Koppen C 5 A
Kliff Kingsbury QB 6 F
Spencer Nead TE 7 F
Tully Banta-Cain DE 7 F
Ethan Kelley DT 7 F

2004 Draft Picks
Vince Wilfork* DT 1 D
Benjamin Watson TE 1 F
Marquise Hill* DE 2 F
Guss Scott S 3 F
Dexter Reid S 4 C
Cedric Cobbs RB 4 F
P.K. Sam* WR 5 F
Christian Morton CB 7 F


Denver Broncos

2000 Draft Picks My grade
Round Player Pos
1 Deltha O'Neal CB B-
2 Ian Gold OLB A-
2 Kenoy Kennedy S A-
3 Chris Cole WR C
4 Jerry Johnson DT F
4 Cooper Carlisle OG B
5 Muneer Moore WR F
6 Mike Anderson HB A-
7 Jarious Jackson QB F
7 Leroy Fields WR F

2001 Draft Picks
1 Willie Middlebrooks CB B
2 Paul Toviessi DE F
3 Reggie Hayward DE A-
4 Ben Hamilton C A-
4 Nick Harris P F
6 Kevin Kasper WR F

2002 Draft Picks
Round
1 Ashley Lelie WR A-
2 Clinton Portis HB A
3 Dorsett Davis DT D
4 Sam Brandon S C
5 Herb Haygood WR F
6 Jeb Putzier TE B+
7 Chris Young S C
7 Monsanto Pope DT B

2003 Draft Picks
Round Player Pos
1 George Foster OT A-
2 Terry Pierce* ILB B-
4 Quentin Griffin HB B-
4 Nick Eason DT F
4 Bryant McNeal OLB F
5 Ben Claxton C F
5 Adrian Madise WR F
6 Aaron Hunt DE F
7 Clint Mitchell* DE F
7 Ahmaad Galloway RB F

2004 Draft Picks
1 D.J. Williams OLB A-
2 Tatum Bell RB A-
2 Darius Watts WR B
3 Jeremy LeSueur CB F
5 Jeff Shoate CB F
6 Triandos Luke WR C
6 Josh Sewell C F
7 Matt Mauck* QB F
7 Brandon Miree RB F
7 Bradlee Van Pelt QB F

[dbdom]

i think some of your grades a little biased for the broncs
however, NE have made some really great picks over the time, we've also made the some good ones but it is not only the strength of the draft we gotta look at
if you take a look at the FA's that NE have signed over the course of that time and grade those compared to ours, i think there will be a marked difference, ive lost count how many "washed up veterans" NE have signed, put into their machine and churned out a good contributor

[BroncosB2B]

definently not B players:

Cooper Carlisle OG B
Willie Middlebrooks CB B (are you crazy? he has done jack ---- since he's been here!)
Monsanto Pope DT B - underachiver
Terry Pierce* ILB B- - has hardly played except on special teams. not a B, more like C or D, not including the fact that he has no speed
Quentin Griffin HB B- - no explanation needed.
Darius Watts WR B - butterfingers

definently not a C

Triandos Luke WR C
Chris Cole WR C - avg KR did nothing while he was here

[Interpol]

http://home.jps.net/~fos/nfl/last_10.html


Should tell you everything you need to know about the best teams in the NFL.

[Swede]

Denver Broncos

2000 Draft Picks My grade
Round Player Pos
1 Deltha O'Neal CB B-
2 Ian Gold OLB A-
2 Kenoy Kennedy S A-
3 Chris Cole WR C
4 Jerry Johnson DT F
4 Cooper Carlisle OG B
5 Muneer Moore WR F
6 Mike Anderson HB A-
7 Jarious Jackson QB F
7 Leroy Fields WR F

2001 Draft Picks
1 Willie Middlebrooks CB B
2 Paul Toviessi DE F
3 Reggie Hayward DE A-
4 Ben Hamilton C A-
4 Nick Harris P F
6 Kevin Kasper WR F

2002 Draft Picks
Round
1 Ashley Lelie WR A-
2 Clinton Portis HB A
3 Dorsett Davis DT D
4 Sam Brandon S C
5 Herb Haygood WR F
6 Jeb Putzier TE B+
7 Chris Young S C
7 Monsanto Pope DT B

2003 Draft Picks
Round Player Pos
1 George Foster OT A-
2 Terry Pierce* ILB B-
4 Quentin Griffin HB B-
4 Nick Eason DT F
4 Bryant McNeal OLB F
5 Ben Claxton C F
5 Adrian Madise WR F
6 Aaron Hunt DE F
7 Clint Mitchell* DE F
7 Ahmaad Galloway RB F

2004 Draft Picks
1 D.J. Williams OLB A-
2 Tatum Bell RB A-
2 Darius Watts WR B
3 Jeremy LeSueur CB F
5 Jeff Shoate CB F
6 Triandos Luke WR C
6 Josh Sewell C F
7 Matt Mauck* QB F
7 Brandon Miree RB F
7 Bradlee Van Pelt QB F

Come on!? This is so biased!
Tatum an A-? This evalution is obviously not based on future, but what have been done. What has he done?
I like the idea of comparing NE to Denver, but this is just unfair. The only great players we have produced thus far is Portis, Hayward, Williams, Lelie, Hamilton, and Gold. And even that might be a reach...

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Vince Wilfork a "D"?

Are you ****ing insane?


He was one of the best NTs in the NFL last season in his rookie year. God, you are clueless, not to mention biased.

[Perry1977]

definently not B players:

Darius Watts WR B - butterfingers

31 catches as a rookie 3rd receiver isn't bad. And you call call the player who broke the Marshall receptions record (held by some chump named Randy Moss) butterfingers? Amazing!

Seems all you can remember are the two high pressure end zone drops. Yes, they hurt. But there were a helluva lot more catches than that.

[Reichert113]

i dont care what he did in marshall cause the fact of the matter is he isnt producing in the nfl. also the only great players we have draft lately are - portis, hamilton.. everyone else is good but i wouldnt say great.. but to be fair most of those players are still young so can go from good to great. i also think that dj williams WILL be great but he isnt yet...

[Superchop7]

Backup players do not win Super Bowls

If NE needs a tackle, they draft a tackle, if we need a tackle, we draft a linebacker, this, in a nutshell, is the difference between the Bronco's and the Patriots. They fill holes via the draft, they make linemen a priority in the draft, they complete their team via the draft.
Drafts from 2000,2001,2002,2003 produced 9 starters (almost half the team) for New England, the same drafts produced 6 starters (close to a quarter of the team)for the Bronco's. (You will notice that I only went to 03 to allow for Mike Shannahans learning curve) The only teams that drafted worse in those years were the Giants, Cowboys, and Bucs. (5 starters)
Think about it, New England produced 9 starters "at positions of need".
Now, let's look at the Ravens, who have a different philosophy, they tend to take the highest rated guy on the board, in those same years they produced 12 starters, which is outstanding, but, they can't beat the Patriots, why?, they don't fill positions of need, when they really needed offense, they drafted a defensive guy.
What we do, well, I guess I shouldn't even say that, I don't know what we do, we don't draft for need and we don't take the highest rated player, when Baltimore picks I usually know who they drafted, when Denver picks I go scrambling for my draft guide.
Denver is very fortunate to have an owner like Pat Bowlen, we are a good team because he isn't stingy with a buck, he is as big a part of Denvers success as anyone in the organization, if it wasn't for free agency we would be a horrible team, we do win alot of games because Mike is a helluva game planner, I give him kudo's as well, but, we are lacking in the draft department, that is my number one complaint, 28 teams are doing a better job than us .and sooner or later it catches up to you.

[kryomid]

Short Memories....

The Broncos have had some busts ... and some successes. It seems like the real difference between us and a team like the Patriots, is not the success in the draft... but through free agency. We've not had a high first round pick in a long time... so haven't been able to land one of the 10 or so "sure things" that are there any given year.

But we've also gotten decent production out of undrafted free agents, and late rounders.

This year we had a few chioces... in a mediocre draft class... next year, more picks, earlier picks = a easier draft to judge...

This season, with the offensive firepower we will be playing against (tough schedule), it's not going to come down to whether or not our draft was sufficient... it's all gonna rely on the veterans we've added on defense... and whether or not they improve us...

We haven't had a top 10 pick in 14 years....14 ! and yet during that time we've drafted:

Clinton Portis
Reggie Hayword
Deltha O'Neal
Mike Anderson
Ian Gold
Al Wilson
Brian Griese
Trevor Pryce
Dan Neil
John Mobley
Terrell Davis
Tom Nalen
Jason Elam

not a bad list... and these are just the best of them... there were several others that produced... here and elsewhere... and had/have good careers....

and when they were drafted??? Nalen was pick 218.... Davis 196.... etc...

there's nothing wrong with the Broncos drafts.... it's perception...and second guessing...

[Superchop7]

You named 13 starters in "14" years, the Ravens drafted 12 starters from 2000-2003. ( that's 3 starters per draft)
Also, the Patriots 9 starters came from the bottom of the round. Making a statement about "our" poor draft position wouldn't apply, these guys have been doing a better job from further down.
The reason that the Patriots are doing a better job in FA is because they are getting starters via the draft (at a lower salary than FA) and therefore, have less holes to fill and more cap to spend.
P.S. Kiper would do a better job drafting than we are.
Let's look at this years draft for instance, we threw our top three picks at DB's, that move, in itself, screams out that they are unsure of the picks they made. Drafting for speed doesn't automatically make a guy an NFL player, Dallas just got rid of a guy that was a 4 year project that had been timed at 4.04 in the 40. (No, that isn't a typo)
We had to replace an entire d-line this year because we neglected the position for so long, I'm glad we did it, but the move mainly fixes this year, who are we developing through this draft for next year?

[dbdom]

i dont care what he did in marshall cause the fact of the matter is he isnt producing in the nfl. also the only great players we have draft lately are - portis, hamilton.. everyone else is good but i wouldnt say great.. but to be fair most of those players are still young so can go from good to great. i also think that dj williams WILL be great but he isnt yet...

you cant judge whether a player can produce in the NFL after a rookie season though

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

I just like that we've drafted 5 CBs in the last two seasons, signed several other undrafted CBs as well.

In that time, we've drafted 0 D-linemen and signed 0 D-linemen. And the main problem with the team last season? lack of pass rush. Somewhere, somehow that should have triggered the response that perhaps drafting D-linemen for the future would be a good idea.

[bronx_2003]

I just like that we've drafted 5 CBs in the last two seasons, signed several other undrafted CBs as well.

In that time, we've drafted 0 D-linemen and signed 0 D-linemen. And the main problem with the team last season? lack of pass rush. Somewhere, somehow that should have triggered the response that perhaps drafting D-linemen for the future would be a good idea.

so whick DL player would you of drafted at #56?

[JRWIZ]

31 catches as a rookie 3rd receiver isn't bad. And you call call the player who broke the Marshall receptions record (held by some chump named Randy Moss) butterfingers? Amazing!

Seems all you can remember are the two high pressure end zone drops. Yes, they hurt. But there were a helluva lot more catches than that.

Considering asshley had like 35 and 37 catches in his first two year and he got a much higher score you need to rethink this one. Watts should have at leasta s high a score as asshley would have.