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To start the ball rolling on some position specific draft talk, I thought we could breakdown the most pivotal need position facing Denver in early ‘07, the defensive end position. While not as deep as past years’, this draft has some interesting prospects but needs help from junior defectors, some I will describe later. All these rankings are highly subjective at the moment, based primarily on play and potential. As the Senior Bowl, combine, and workouts further define these players’ size and athletic ability, we’ll have a more clear cut picture as to where to expect these players landing in the ‘07 draft. So here are my early top ends for the draft:
1. Gaines Adams, Clemson- Adams was a player I was pushing for early departure last season, but he looks to be one of the few that made the wise decision to return to school. Adams now likely finds himself in the top ten picks of the draft. Gaines best attribute might be his quick first step, but he also flashes a small but effective variety of pass rush moves, tenacity in pursuit, size to hold up on running downs, and a frame with size potential. He’s best suited for right end in a 4-3 defense, and has the size and athleticism to play on every down. Some concerns about Adams are his limited pass rush moves and perceived low mental capacity, but that won’t create enough detractors to push him out of the top ten. Adams has the potential to be a frequent 10+ sack player.
2. Quentin Moses, Georgia- Contrary to Adams, Moses appears to have made the wrong decision to stay in school and could continue to slide as the draft approaches. Moses has the “Kiwanuka syndrome” which we saw last year and occurs when a player suffers from overexposure to college coaches and scouts. Eventually, they’ll find your flaws and pick at you to death. Kiwanuka was a fine player that took too much flak for not being awesome as a senior. Moses appears to have all the necessary tools, but doesn’t flash them all the time. His size is merely adequate, and could be a concern full time in a scheme designed around holding blocks. As a pass rusher, Moses has a quick but inconsistent first step, and stayed tied up by blockers too long. In his defense, he was double teamed more than most linemen on this list in games I watched. Moses has the frame to add more weight in the future, and should display fine athleticism in workouts. He’s ranked second here on potential, and his performance slip could benefit the Broncos, allowing him to fall into their lap at pick 21.
3. Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame- Probably the best two way player of the top ends, Abiamiri has potential as both a run defender and pass rusher, but likely won’t stand out in either facet. What makes Abiamiri a first round talent is that he should be good out of the box. He already flashes good technique and an NFL body, so whoever selects him is getting a guy that can start from day one. Abiamiri turned in a solid season sack-wise, but the bulk of his production came against the weaker opponents on the schedule. Vic’s key will be proving his athleticism in workouts. Similar in talent to Mike Rucker.
4. Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas- Quickly becoming my favorite defensive end prospect, Anderson displays all the tools you want in an end. For starters, he looks every bit his listed size, 6’6 280 lbs., which is a major plus. Anderson might have had the best season statistically of all end prospects, with 14 sacks and 20.5 TFLs against some elite competition in USC, Wisconsin, and SEC play. Anderson has plus quickness and agility for his size, and an effective club, swim, and rip move to work back inside. He is the best fit of all ends for the Broncos defense; big and physical enough to hold up blocks and play the run, athletic and quick enough to get to the passer on an island. He can play either end position, and has the potential to be an all pro. Some scouts question his consistency and motor, and his gap between present ability and ceiling might be higher than the players ranked above him. He’s also unsure about declaring. He’d be hard pressed to duplicate his season, and with a weak defensive end class, his stock could sky rocket.
5. Adam Carriker, Nebraska- Might be the most NFL ready end, but not at the position most expect. Carriker’s best fit is in a 3-4 defense at end. Carriker has a plus build and strength for end, but lower pass rush potential than the above players. Carriker makes plays with the bull rush and sound technique. He can turn run plays inside or disrupt them in the backfield, and can occupy two blockers. He’d a left end in a 4-3 defense, but may not be more than a 5-7 sack guy in the pros, with more potential rushing inside than outside. Won’t consistently collapse the pocket, which is fine in a 3-4, but is not what Denver should be looking for. Carriker could be a stand out end in a 3-4 and might slide to round two because of this. Similar to Tyler Brayton.
6. Lawrence Jackson, USC- Most reports indicate that Jackson will be returning to school, which will make this discussion moot. LoJack did not have his best year, but really came on late in disrupting plays in the backfield and pressuring the quarterback. Jackson has the prototype size of a pass rush end, and the requisite quickness, tenacity and move set to get after the quarterback. He doesn’t flash any one elite tool, but can be a 10+ sack guy in the pros. The Broncos search for a pass rusher would be aided should Jackson turn pro, as he profiles as a low first round pick, but a better season next year might put him in the top ten in ‘08.
7. Jarvis Moss, Florida- Lanky pass rusher for the Gators that doesn’t have to play the run much. Moss value is tied to his potential as a pass rushing force. He might have better quickness than most on this list, but his technique is raw and he could be a slide down draft boards if he doesn’t test as a physical marvel. Moss has a plus frame for size potential. He’s believed to be leaning towards turning pro, and figures to be an early first day pick, but there is a lot of projection with him, and might be the biggest boom/bust end prospect.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL- first day picks that have similar value to make ranking difficult:
Tim Crowder, Texas- Big framed end that can play the run better than rushing the passer. Some see him adding bulk and fitting as a 3-4 end. Similar to former Texas end Cory Redding.
Ray McDonald, Florida- Another ‘tweener, but one who could fit as tackle more than an end in some schemes. Could surprise as a pass rusher, but won’t be a 10+ sack guy. Injury history scares some, but he’s had a good season.
Baraka Atkins, Miami- End/tackle tweener that may lack the athleticism to play at end long term. Best season came as a wave player in ‘05. Could do better to bulk up and sell himself as a 4-3 under tackle.
Larry Birdine, Oklahoma- Once considered a top pass rushing prospect, Birdine battle inconsistency and poor technique all season. Possible sleeper with untapped potential, but needs good workouts.
1. Gaines Adams, Clemson- Adams was a player I was pushing for early departure last season, but he looks to be one of the few that made the wise decision to return to school. Adams now likely finds himself in the top ten picks of the draft. Gaines best attribute might be his quick first step, but he also flashes a small but effective variety of pass rush moves, tenacity in pursuit, size to hold up on running downs, and a frame with size potential. He’s best suited for right end in a 4-3 defense, and has the size and athleticism to play on every down. Some concerns about Adams are his limited pass rush moves and perceived low mental capacity, but that won’t create enough detractors to push him out of the top ten. Adams has the potential to be a frequent 10+ sack player.
2. Quentin Moses, Georgia- Contrary to Adams, Moses appears to have made the wrong decision to stay in school and could continue to slide as the draft approaches. Moses has the “Kiwanuka syndrome” which we saw last year and occurs when a player suffers from overexposure to college coaches and scouts. Eventually, they’ll find your flaws and pick at you to death. Kiwanuka was a fine player that took too much flak for not being awesome as a senior. Moses appears to have all the necessary tools, but doesn’t flash them all the time. His size is merely adequate, and could be a concern full time in a scheme designed around holding blocks. As a pass rusher, Moses has a quick but inconsistent first step, and stayed tied up by blockers too long. In his defense, he was double teamed more than most linemen on this list in games I watched. Moses has the frame to add more weight in the future, and should display fine athleticism in workouts. He’s ranked second here on potential, and his performance slip could benefit the Broncos, allowing him to fall into their lap at pick 21.
3. Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame- Probably the best two way player of the top ends, Abiamiri has potential as both a run defender and pass rusher, but likely won’t stand out in either facet. What makes Abiamiri a first round talent is that he should be good out of the box. He already flashes good technique and an NFL body, so whoever selects him is getting a guy that can start from day one. Abiamiri turned in a solid season sack-wise, but the bulk of his production came against the weaker opponents on the schedule. Vic’s key will be proving his athleticism in workouts. Similar in talent to Mike Rucker.
4. Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas- Quickly becoming my favorite defensive end prospect, Anderson displays all the tools you want in an end. For starters, he looks every bit his listed size, 6’6 280 lbs., which is a major plus. Anderson might have had the best season statistically of all end prospects, with 14 sacks and 20.5 TFLs against some elite competition in USC, Wisconsin, and SEC play. Anderson has plus quickness and agility for his size, and an effective club, swim, and rip move to work back inside. He is the best fit of all ends for the Broncos defense; big and physical enough to hold up blocks and play the run, athletic and quick enough to get to the passer on an island. He can play either end position, and has the potential to be an all pro. Some scouts question his consistency and motor, and his gap between present ability and ceiling might be higher than the players ranked above him. He’s also unsure about declaring. He’d be hard pressed to duplicate his season, and with a weak defensive end class, his stock could sky rocket.
5. Adam Carriker, Nebraska- Might be the most NFL ready end, but not at the position most expect. Carriker’s best fit is in a 3-4 defense at end. Carriker has a plus build and strength for end, but lower pass rush potential than the above players. Carriker makes plays with the bull rush and sound technique. He can turn run plays inside or disrupt them in the backfield, and can occupy two blockers. He’d a left end in a 4-3 defense, but may not be more than a 5-7 sack guy in the pros, with more potential rushing inside than outside. Won’t consistently collapse the pocket, which is fine in a 3-4, but is not what Denver should be looking for. Carriker could be a stand out end in a 3-4 and might slide to round two because of this. Similar to Tyler Brayton.
6. Lawrence Jackson, USC- Most reports indicate that Jackson will be returning to school, which will make this discussion moot. LoJack did not have his best year, but really came on late in disrupting plays in the backfield and pressuring the quarterback. Jackson has the prototype size of a pass rush end, and the requisite quickness, tenacity and move set to get after the quarterback. He doesn’t flash any one elite tool, but can be a 10+ sack guy in the pros. The Broncos search for a pass rusher would be aided should Jackson turn pro, as he profiles as a low first round pick, but a better season next year might put him in the top ten in ‘08.
7. Jarvis Moss, Florida- Lanky pass rusher for the Gators that doesn’t have to play the run much. Moss value is tied to his potential as a pass rushing force. He might have better quickness than most on this list, but his technique is raw and he could be a slide down draft boards if he doesn’t test as a physical marvel. Moss has a plus frame for size potential. He’s believed to be leaning towards turning pro, and figures to be an early first day pick, but there is a lot of projection with him, and might be the biggest boom/bust end prospect.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL- first day picks that have similar value to make ranking difficult:
Tim Crowder, Texas- Big framed end that can play the run better than rushing the passer. Some see him adding bulk and fitting as a 3-4 end. Similar to former Texas end Cory Redding.
Ray McDonald, Florida- Another ‘tweener, but one who could fit as tackle more than an end in some schemes. Could surprise as a pass rusher, but won’t be a 10+ sack guy. Injury history scares some, but he’s had a good season.
Baraka Atkins, Miami- End/tackle tweener that may lack the athleticism to play at end long term. Best season came as a wave player in ‘05. Could do better to bulk up and sell himself as a 4-3 under tackle.
Larry Birdine, Oklahoma- Once considered a top pass rushing prospect, Birdine battle inconsistency and poor technique all season. Possible sleeper with untapped potential, but needs good workouts.
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