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  • our chances of getting marshawn lynch. . . .

    obviously he's been a hot topic around here since midseason, and will continue to be right up to draft day. . . since people are talking about him so much, i thought it would be worthwhile to start a thread discussing what the chances are that he'll be avilable when we pick at # 21, or how far we would potentially have to move up to draft him, and what it would cost. . . the intended purpose of this thread isn't to discuss whether or not you think we SHOULD get him-- there are already threads going on that topic. . . i can see both sides of that issue, but irregardless of what i (or any broncomaniac) think our priorities are, i have a feeling that finding an impact RB will be high on shenanigans' list of priorities, and that he may forgoe other needs to address this one. .

    obviously we'll be able to get a much clearer idea in april-- we'll see which juniors declare and have an idea where they're projected, we'll see how players measure and perform at the combine, we'll see how those who are invited play in the various all-star games, and we'll see which current players retire and what teams do in free agency, giving us a clearer idea of their needs and priorities in the draft. . . i'll probably bump this thread then, but there is enough information available now to at least begin the speculation. . . let's look at the teams which are drafting ahead of us-- how many of them are likely to want a RB in the 1st round? i think it's safe to assume for now that adrian peterson will be the first back off the board, and where he goes will obviously influence lynch. . .

    i've heard some people say the faders could take a back, but i don't buy it. . . i see a QB as their most likely choice, and depending on how down they are on gallery, it's not out of the question that they could even take joe thomas-- if they end up moving moss AND porter, calvin johnson is a possibility also. . . jordan may not look like a star, but he's seviceable enough if they can improve their horrendous line. . . i'd say cleveland is the first team likely to look at peterson, but if thomas falls that far i think they're more likely to grab him. . . QB is a possibility, but i think they would also take a very long look at alan branch if thomas is off the board-- ted washington doesn't have much left, and branch is the kind of player who could anchor their 3-4 for the next decade. . . ultimately, i would give peterson a better than even chance of slipping past cleveland. . .

    tampa, arizona, washington and minnesota all have featured runners with years left on their contracts, and i don't see any of them being possible destinations for peterson. . . if he falls out of the top 7, i'd think it would be pretty hard (though not impossible) for houston to pass on him after passing on bush and VY last year. . . the two wild cards are the health of domanick davis (now williams, lol) and their possible desire to replace david carr if quinn or russell is still on the board. . . but for the sake of discussion, let's say that peterson is picked somewhere in the top 8 (i'm assuming that if he goes top 3, lynch isn't going to sneak into the top 8 as well, though i suppose anything is possible). . . so, we're theoretically sitting at #9 with lynch as the prospective best RB on the board-- how much longer would he last?

    miami, san francisco, st. louis and buffalo all have franchise-type backs, and although i've heard that atlanta could possibly release warrick dunn in a salary dump, they have a very promising youngster in jerious norwood, and have enough pressing needs that i think it's safe to say they wouldn't take a RB in the 1st round. . . that brings us to carolina at # 14. . . i've heard that they are interested in getting a true workhorse back this year, but i just can't see them spending their 1st rounder on a RB after they just took deangelo williams in the 1st last year. . . even if they decide to move deshaun foster (who they just re-signed to a sizeable contract a year ago), that would give them an awful lot of money tied up in RBs, and they certainly have other needs, including finding another MLB behind the injury-prone dan morgan, and improving their offensive line. . . pittsburgh is an outside possibility at# 15, but i don't see them taking a back that high after the season willie parker just had. . .

    that brings us to green bay at # 16, which looks like a likely spot to see lynch come off the board. . . it's certainly not a given by any means, though-- that team has plenty of holes, and it's very possible that they could decide to re-sign ahman green and try to get another year or two out of him, allowing them to patch holes in their secondary or their receiving corps (it looks like there will be several quality 1st round prospects available here even assuming that johnson and jarrett are off the board). . . even if they part ways with fred taylor, as i've speculated elsewhere that they will, i don't see jacksonville taking a RB in the 1st-- i suppose it's not out of the realm of possibility that they would grab lynch as the best player available at that point, but i'm pretty sure they're satisfied with maurice jones-drew and greg jones even if they do move taylor. . . they'd be more likely to look for some help at safety or OL, and they could be looking for a QB as well depending on who's available (they like garrard, but he's very erratic). . .

    cincinnatti definitely isn't going to take a RB in the first, as rudi johnson is a durable front-line starter in his prime, and they still have chris perry behind him. . . tennessee got excellent production out of travis henry down the stretch, and haven't even gotten much of a look at lendale white, last year's 2nd rounder-- they're not going to take lynch. . . that leaves the ginats sitting one spot ahead of us, assuming that tiki actually retires (i'm pretty sure that he will). . . they're obviously a candidate, but no more set in stone than green bay-- like all teams, they have a variety of needs. . . i know a lot of people have said that the giants don't view brandon jacobs as a potential starter, but that remains to be seen-- they'll certainly be in the market for a RB at some point, but that doesn't absolutely mean that it has to be a 1st rounder. . . for one thing, i personally suspect that they're going to look for an alternative to the unreliable and extremely injury-prone luke petigout at OLT-- david deihl is not a long term starter there. . . they also need some young talent in the secondary. . .

    of course, there's also the possibility that a team below us could trade ahead of us if they're also targetting lynch. . . but looking at the teams slotted behind us, the jets and ravens are the only ones that could possibly want a 1st round RB, and i think the jets are happy enough with leon washington to make them unlikely. . . also, jamal lewis has been playing better recently. . .

    i'm curious as to whether any of our draftniks can tell me how lynch is being graded compared to maroney last year, or steven jackson in '04 (though i understand that grades will be more solid after the combine). . . maroney went 21st, and jackson 24th, so unless he's viewed as significantly better, i don't think it's out of the question that lynch could be avilable at # 21. . . i would think that if shanny does happen to be set on lynch, he would have to trade up to # 15 ahead of green bay to be SURE of getting him. . . that would require approximately 250 points according to the draft value chart-- our higher 3rd rounder is worth 240, so that would come close to doing it. . . if shanahan is interested but doesn't want to give up that much, he could stand pat and take his chances, especially if green bay had re-signed ahman green-- if lynch slipped past green bay, there's a fairly good chance we would only have to move up two spots to jump ahead of the giants-- that would only require 75 points. . . if i remember correctly, cincy gave us # 17 in exchange for # 24 and deltha o'neal, so there's a good chance a player like tatum bell or george foster would be enough to move us up to somewhere in the 17-19 range. . . .

    remember, i'm not advocating for or against lynch right now. . . just speculating about what our realistic chances of getting him may be-- i've heard some people make comments suggesting that he'll be out of our reach, and i don't believe that's the case at all. . . it all depends on how things play out between now and april, and how badly we may happen to want him. . . .
    Last edited by dogfish; 01-07-2007, 09:48 PM.
    Officially Objectified by the GPA

    rest in peace, darrent williams and damien nash-- you will be missed!!

  • #2
    I'd say "very realistic" as well. I recently read on GB's scout.com site that Green's close to re-signing, and even if he doesn't GB has given two young runners plenty of time this season (mixed results). Although, I can't really think of any position other than RB that GB might address...maybe TE or DL. Green Bay's definitely the threat though...

    Jamal Lewis is flat horrible though...Baltimore would be wise to make a move for a top-runner. They may be out of trade-up reach, however.

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    • #3
      I don't think there's any doubt Marshawn Lynch would be an upgrade over what we already have, but I just can't see it happen. When is the last time Shanny picked a running back in the first round ? I heard the rumours that he liked Maroney, but he did find a way to not pick him and move up for Cutler (nice move BTW). College football and the draft is not my strong suit, but IMO this team has other more glaring needs like D-line and the secondary. Looks like there's a possibility a quality Safety will fall to us, also have seen a couple of mocks having us pick DeMarcus Tyler DT out of NC State.

      But who knows at this point ?, I sure wouldn't be complaining if the Broncos decided to nab Lynch. As always a well thought out post, props to ya!
      Eric Weddle S Utah

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      • #4
        Originally posted by WABronco
        I'd say "very realistic" as well. I recently read on GB's scout.com site that Green's close to re-signing, and even if he doesn't GB has given two young runners plenty of time this season (mixed results). Although, I can't really think of any position other than RB that GB might address...maybe TE or DL. Green Bay's definitely the threat though...

        Jamal Lewis is flat horrible though...Baltimore would be wise to make a move for a top-runner. They may be out of trade-up reach, however.
        Jamal Lewis has picked his game up considerabley, and I think will warrant at least a chance to fight for a starting job next season. He's definately earned the right in my book from what I've seen of him play.

        Green Bay could always trade with us and then trade out of the first round for more picks if they can't nail a first rounder on any sort or particular need.
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        • #5
          There are teams that could be considered a threat: Oakland, Texans, Cleveland and Green Bay, not that they do not have other pressing needs: My thing is Shanahan would go far in trying to secure the ability to draft Lynch -- last season he threw many picks into a bundle to try and get Maroney, and Lynch according to many may be one of the most all around backs one day up there with Thomlinson...with comparisons to both this year, I am sure that Shanahan is drooling at the bit to get him, but the realistic chance he is available at 21 is more unlikely, so I think Shanahan will try and trade up, if he does miss him, then he put us in a better spot anyway and many things could happen.

          As far as where I compare them, I think Lynch is a better pro prospect then Maroney and is very similar, but his ability is more like Bush's, he to me may be one of the most sound backs to come out in the past five years, there are others that could be great backs, if Denver misses Lynch, then I hope they go for Clifton Dawson the Harvard standout, he is very similar to Lynch - just not as good a pro prospect and he needs to develop a bit more strength, he does not get all the hoopla because of the division he plays in and that some Ivy League Schools are considered soft...but I think Lynch will be the number one target of the organization.

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          • #6
            I have had use taking him even if the Jets are picking in front of us. Looking at all the team needs from around the league I see us getting him.

            Granted everyone who doesn't read what this thread is about I give our chances of obtaining Lynch at about 85%.

            The teams I see that could be spoilers are Oak, GB, Jax, Atl, Hou, Cle, Det.

            Oak needs WR and QB help much more than the RB position so I am crossing them off.

            GB looks to get a RB in the first Rd to help young Rogers if he has to take over and even with Peterson's injury history I can see the Pack taking him over Lynch.

            Jax needs a RB to be an every down back. Jones-Drew does an awesome job as a change of pace back and Taylor is getting older but RB could be a pick, My personal thought is they use their pick on Daymien Hughes to play opposite Mathis so I am crossing them off.

            Atl still has Dunn and have a young runner in Norwood so they might not be the gun slinging team taking yet another young back, I can see them getting Posluszny or Nelson.

            Hou needs a RB to pound the rock but recent success from Big Bad Dayne might lead them to take Landry because their safety positions are horrible.

            Cle has Droughns but he is not as explosive as they would like and if they get the 3rd pick they might have a chance a Quinn although their biggest needs are O and D line

            Det has Jones but injuries have slowed him threwout his NFL career so a new back could be a possibility although I think they need a new QB more than anything else.


            With all this being said I think Lynch will be around for us to have a chance at him and I hope we take him.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by lancane
              There are teams that could be considered a threat: Oakland, Texans, Cleveland and Green Bay, not that they do not have other pressing needs: My thing is Shanahan would go far in trying to secure the ability to draft Lynch -- last season he threw many picks into a bundle to try and get Maroney, and Lynch according to many may be one of the most all around backs one day up there with Thomlinson...with comparisons to both this year, I am sure that Shanahan is drooling at the bit to get him, but the realistic chance he is available at 21 is more unlikely, so I think Shanahan will try and trade up, if he does miss him, then he put us in a better spot anyway and many things could happen.

              As far as where I compare them, I think Lynch is a better pro prospect then Maroney and is very similar, but his ability is more like Bush's, he to me may be one of the most sound backs to come out in the past five years, there are others that could be great backs, if Denver misses Lynch, then I hope they go for Clifton Dawson the Harvard standout, he is very similar to Lynch - just not as good a pro prospect and he needs to develop a bit more strength, he does not get all the hoopla because of the division he plays in and that some Ivy League Schools are considered soft...but I think Lynch will be the number one target of the organization.

              Aren't we picking 20? I could swear all playoff teams had to pick after playoff teams. Am I wrong? (This is a serious question)

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Lorcust
                Jamal Lewis has picked his game up considerabley, and I think will warrant at least a chance to fight for a starting job next season. He's definately earned the right in my book from what I've seen of him play.

                Green Bay could always trade with us and then trade out of the first round for more picks if they can't nail a first rounder on any sort or particular need.
                You make a valid point, what would Green Bay want? They need linebackers and they need a decent running back, maybe more so to back up Green if re-signed -- if so and Denver wants to trim some exessive money or fat, they could think of trading Tatum Bell or Ian Gold to Green Bay, but I think the first people that Denver will turn to is long-time friends Washington and Houston, see if they can even get into those areas. If Houston is really thinking of trading Carr to Oakland and getting Porter, then they could look at a deal which they get Bell and Plummer, our top pick this year and another in 08'...not saying they would, but there are many possibilities.

                The issue to me is not will Denver make a move for Lynch, but in which way -- I think anyone who really understands Shanahan and his game would know he will go for it, but as I stated before...can he get to where he needs to be.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by TU_HurricaneDB
                  Aren't we picking 20? I could swear all playoff teams had to pick after playoff teams. Am I wrong? (This is a serious question)
                  The Giants were the only playoff team under us, they I believe would have needed to get to the divisional playoffs to surpass us...I could be wrong, but their record still comes into play and they lost, so they now are 9-8, and that will get them I believe a pick above a 9-7 team. And with Barber retiring, Curtis issues for the Jets, both New York teams are a valid threat for Lynch...again, I think we will see Denver trade a truck load to get him -- I know some fans will boo, but if we had any pick between the 5th overall through the 15th even, you could bet almost any given dollar amount that it is Lynch they are nabbing.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by lancane
                    You make a valid point, what would Green Bay want? They need linebackers and they need a decent running back, maybe more so to back up Green if re-signed -- if so and Denver wants to trim some exessive money or fat, they could think of trading Tatum Bell or Ian Gold to Green Bay, but I think the first people that Denver will turn to is long-time friends Washington and Houston, see if they can even get into those areas. If Houston is really thinking of trading Carr to Oakland and getting Porter, then they could look at a deal which they get Bell and Plummer, our top pick this year and another in 08'...not saying they would, but there are many possibilities.

                    The issue to me is not will Denver make a move for Lynch, but in which way -- I think anyone who really understands Shanahan and his game would know he will go for it, but as I stated before...can he get to where he needs to be.
                    But... but the thing is, who REALLY understands Shanahan ? Seems like everytime we think we know something, he pulls a rabbit from his hat we didn't see coming
                    Eric Weddle S Utah

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by lord_helmet
                      But... but the thing is, who REALLY understands Shanahan ? Seems like everytime we think we know something, he pulls a rabbit from his hat we didn't see coming
                      Most people do not, I still do not...but I have gotten the hang of how he goes about dealing with personnel and athlete issues...I told many he was interested in a quarterback last year and many here said yeah right, they will go halfback or defensive end, and he got Cutler, I also told many he wanted a halfback as well, so in both cases I was not wrong. I told people to watch them in the off-season they were going for a standout receiver and money was it was Owens, I was close and I like Javon...so I really do not know him as to all his picks, I have just gotten the niche of the direction he would go and after watching his inept backfield this season and seeing Thomlinson, the fact he wanted to get back in the first for a halfback last year? -- It is not that hard to figure out every aspect of Shanahan, just the more complex areas, "If a blind man is walking towards water, his lips are parched, is muttering about water and looks thirsty, then you can bet your ass it is water he is going for!" And Shanahan has given more then enough clues to let us know he wants an all around back, if the signs were not there, then I could say there is a doubt in my mind...after this season I have no doubts about who or which way they will go.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by lord_helmet
                        When is the last time Shanny picked a running back in the first round ? I heard the rumours that he liked Maroney, but he did find a way to not pick him and move up for Cutler (nice move BTW).
                        Shanny wanted to get back in the first round after we took Cutler to take Maroney... He was offering Tatum and our first this year but no one budged.
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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by lancane
                          Most people do not, I still do not...but I have gotten the hang of how he goes about dealing with personnel and athlete issues...I told many he was interested in a quarterback last year and many here said yeah right, they will go halfback or defensive end, and he got Cutler, I also told many he wanted a halfback as well, so in both cases I was not wrong. I told people to watch them in the off-season they were going for a standout receiver and money was it was Owens, I was close and I like Javon...so I really do not know him as to all his picks, I have just gotten the niche of the direction he would go and after watching his inept backfield this season and seeing Thomlinson, the fact he wanted to get back in the first for a halfback last year? -- It is not that hard to figure out every aspect of Shanahan, just the more complex areas, "If a blind man is walking towards water, his lips are parched, is muttering about water and looks thirsty, then you can bet your ass it is water he is going for!" And Shanahan has given more then enough clues to let us know he wants an all around back, if the signs were not there, then I could say there is a doubt in my mind...after this season I have no doubts about who or which way they will go.
                          I like that succes rate , and I hope you're right. Would be a disaster for my dynasty FF team as I own the entire Denver backfield but who cares
                          Eric Weddle S Utah

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                          • #14
                            a few points. . .


                            first things first-- a few people have asked what position green bay might be interested in other than RB. . . . one outside possibility is safety. . . i read a few weeks ago in PFW that they aren't happy with nick collins-- they feel that he has regressed this year, and that they may have misjudged him as an athlete. . . i also doubt that they view marquand manuel as a long term answer. . . they finished around 28th or so in TD passes allowed despite having a good pair of corners, so it's not out of the question that they could grab a guy like laron landry at # 16. . . i also think a Dt like okoye could be interesting to them. . .

                            but the real position i think they could target along with RB is WR! donald driver is 31 and not getting any younger, and robert ferguson is always hurt. . . greg jennings was a nice find, but they have nothing behind him at all-- after driver and gennings, their next WR finished with 21 catches, and i don't think any other wideout had more than 10. . . one factor is that with all the juniors declaring there will be a LOT of talent at WR in this year's draft, but it's really going to hurt next year's class. . . there are always a few good RBs available, and i think they may well decide that they're better off looking for a guy like dwayne jarrett (or ginn-- and where will meacham and rice slot in?) and trying to get another year or two out of ahman green. . .

                            one other thing. . . if shenanigans really does decide to go after lynch, tatum bell becomes expendable. . . deltha o'neal brought us about 210 points of value, and we got around 250 for lelie i believe. . . bell isn't significantly worse than either of them-- i'm really just speculating here, but given the relative weakness of this year's FA group of RBs, combined with a draft class that doesn't appear particularly overwhelming, i would think bell could net us a pick worth in the neighborhood of 200 points (mid 3rd round-ish). . . that alone would give us most of the juice necessary to jump to 14 or 15, and given their probable needs i could see pittsburgh or carolina being willing to trade down if we added a lower round pick. . . george foster should have some trade value as well, and i can easily see shanny being willing to part with either or both of them to land a potential franchise back. . . again, just speculating, but i don't think a scenario similar to this is out of the question at all. . . .

                            that said, shanny will most likely do something completely unexpected. . . .



                            Last edited by dogfish; 01-08-2007, 12:03 AM.
                            Officially Objectified by the GPA

                            rest in peace, darrent williams and damien nash-- you will be missed!!

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                            • #15
                              Snowball meet hell.
                              "Some people in this world make things happen, some people in this world know what happened, but most people wonder what happened."

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