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  • trading down??

    though it probably wont happen, I would love to see it. Denver trades down their first rounder for an additional first day pick. That would give the broncos five first day picks. The way I look at it, we have positions that need immediate upgrades and we have positions that we need to improve on eventually.

    Immediately...DT, DE, OT, RB

    Eventually... S, LB, CB

    This years first day talent is stacked in the areas we need to address immediately. Most experts have us taking either moses or carriker in the first. Are either one of those guys worth giving up Joe Staley, who would be a huge upgrade at tackle, Michael Bush/Kenny Irons, who would both bring something special to our running game, and Brandon Mebane/Tim Crowder/Ray McDonald, who could start right away and be and upgrade for us. Is one defensive end in the late first round worth giving up great players like this that could have more of an impact on our team?

    IMO, this is probably the smartest thing we could do. thoughts?
    09-17-08: OFFICIALLY BACKING JARVIS MOSS TO TURN INTO ONE HELL OF A DEFENSIVE END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO YEARS.-we are all allowed one mistake, right?

    Loved McD 's first full FA. Can't wait to see the draft.

    2010 Draft WISHlist:

    Any center since we don't have one.

  • #2
    accually, picking Staley in the draft would not be a bad idea. he is about the same size as the other bronco OL players, and he is athletic. the one thing that i have a question about is: can he block the zone?

    could it be possible to pick Carriker with the #21 overall pick and trade foster & our round 2 pick for a late 1st round pick? if staley still is on the board when it comes to perhaps saints, eagles or ravens?

    or trade plummer+ a 3rd round pick for vikings 2nd, and then use both 2nd round picks to move up & take staley?

    I don´t think we should move down... we might move down to much
    Last edited by bjoli198; 02-15-2007, 02:09 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      good post-- i'd give you a CP for it if i hadn't just given you one. . . this is something i've been thinking about for a while. . . i don't think it's uncommon to see a draft class have around 8-12 players who are really TOP prospects, with a larger group behind them that aren't quite the same type of blue-chippers. . . there's often little separation between your borderline 1st round and mid-to-high 2nd round prospects, and there are generally a few players taken late in the 1st who are looked at as a bit of a stretch for the 1st round. . .

      it's still early in the evaluation process, but right now i'd say this class looks true to form that way. . . naturally, our pick falls just late enough where there's a good chance we'll miss out on all the truly elite prospects, with guys like nelson and okoye coming off the board before we pick. . . of the guys i'd consider good values at #21, carriker and lynch probably have the best chance of still being there. . . i'd be thrilled with either of them, but if they're gone we're looking at guys like charles johnson, moses, jarvis moss, griffin, maybe kenny irons if cane is right. . . not that i dislike any of those guys, but i don't consider any of them particularly great 1st round picks at this point. . .

      i like griffin, and i think he'll be a good player, but i'm not convinced that he'll really be as strong in run support as you'd like from a safety taken that high-- he's a smart, productive player from a major college program, but i'm not convinced that we really need a 1st round safety anyways. . . no doubt we need an infusion of young talent at the position, but assuming that the two top guys are off the board i think there are some smarter options for us than spending our top pick to fill that need. . .

      we absolutely should find a DE in this deep and talented class, but i'm just not sure that any of the 2nd tier of players behind adams and anderson have done enough to seperate themselves with the exception of carriker. . . johnson projects as a good, balanced end with a relatively high floor, but he may lack the size to be a true power end, or the explosion to be a true edge rusher. . . maybe he can be an LDE in the mold of hali, or a balanced RDE like justin smith. . . moss and moses obviously have questions about their size, and abiamiri seems to lack any truly special qualities to set him apart. . . ultimately they're all solid prospects, but given the number of DEs with high grades there will definitely be a few of them available in the 2nd round. . . if the FO really has their eyes on one guy in particular then they'll have to take him in the 1st if they want to be sure of getting him, but with these guys and half a dozen more that sport potential 2nd round grades it's not like we absolutely can't afford to wait. . .

      if we take a chance on an end other than carriker, my personal preference would be moss, simply because he seems to be the most naturally athletic and explosive of all the 2nd tier DEs-- i desperately want that elite edge rusher, and to me he seems to have the greatest potential in that area. . . however, he missed a great portion of his early college career due to an infection, and thus lacks polish and a history of production. . . it's easy for me to see where others won't agree with my regard for him. . . at DT, i don't mind harrell, but 21 seems high for him-- and i personally want no part of tyler and his character problems!

      i really think the best value in this draft may come high in the 2nd round, which is why i wouldn't be at all opposed to trading down-- though i'd much rather see us work something out in advance, but not do the actual trade 'til draft day, allowing us to see who may fall before we give up our pick. . . in the 30-50 range, there should be a lot of good players who would fill needs here. . . obviously this is pure projection, but i'm thinking of names like moses, moss, abiamiri, anthony spencer, joe staley, ben grubbs, kenny irons, eric weddle, brandon merriweather, brandon mebane, jsutin harrell, possibly tony ugoh or tim crowder. . . clearly, not ALL of those players will be available in that range-- some will go higher and be off the board-- but there should be plenty of good value picks available to us in the 2nd round. . .

      i wouldn't be opposed to trading down with our 1st rounder, and i'd also love to see us try using players like plummer, foster and potentially bell to trade up from our 2nd and 3rd rounders if we move them. . . . i would be very happy if we could amass a few picks in that 30-55 range, where we could potentially fill multiple holes. . .

      the salary cap is another factor. . . the truth is, i don't pay enough attention to it to know whether we'd save much money in the long run by trading down-- cug, where are ya dude? in any case, i can't imagine that it would hurt us, and any money a cash-strapped club can free up is a big help. . . in fact, i wouldn't even mind seeing us trade our 1st for a 1st next year, especially if we could add another late 1st day pick this year the way we did in the redfaces trade. . . we could walk away with several 1st day picks to help this year while saving that salary cap hit until next season when contracts like lynch, rod smith and nalen will most likely be off the books. . . i'm all for doing what we can to get out of salary cap hell NOW so that the prime young years of cutler's career aren't wasted while we go through a salary purge. . . besides, it would be nice to stockpile that extra pick that might allow us to move up next year the way we did last year. . .
      Last edited by dogfish; 02-15-2007, 02:13 AM.
      Officially Objectified by the GPA

      rest in peace, darrent williams and damien nash-- you will be missed!!

      Comment


      • #4
        I think Adam Carriker would be worth staying put over, perhaps Charles Johnson as well. If the Broncos want Joe Staley, they'll have to stay put as well, he'll be going in the top 25 I believe.

        Personally, I think staying put and drafting:

        1) Adam Carriker
        2) Charles Johnson
        3) Reggie Nelson
        4) Aaron Ross (who also is a standout return specialist)
        5) Marshawn Lynch
        6) Joe Staley

        at pick 21, would all be smart moves, at least at this point in the evaluation process. I think all those guys will be studs.


        You could trade down a few spots, and probably pick up Michael Griffin or Brandon Meriweather. You could certainly grab one of the second tier DTs such as Tyler, Harrell, Pittcock, Thomas, or Mebane. All have question marks though, and depending on what type of scheme we choose to run, some would not be options.

        And that would make sense to a degree, but if we have a shot at one of the 6 I listed, I think you take them. If not, trade back. Personally, I'm really high on Joe Staley, I think he's a long term answer at LT as Lepsis finishes up. Alot of that depends on what we do with Foster though.

        Comment


        • #5
          Although my opinions may change post combine I really like
          this idea in this draft class.

          If we are drafting based on need, this draft is perfect for trading down.
          Like dogfish said the quality really drops off about half-way through round one.

          If our pick is worth 800 points on the value board an ideal partner would be the Lions with picks 34 & 66 (820 points.) We could throw in our 6th round pick (19 points.) The 21st pick would be great for the Lions to grab a CB like Revis, Hughes, or Ross since Dre Bly is asking to be traded.

          At #34 we could grab the best 1st round DL that slides (Moss, Moses, Tyler?)
          Another option would be a player like Meriweather or Irons who just miss out on the first round.

          If this were the case my ideal 2nd and 3rd round would be.

          2a 34- Tank Tyler DT, NC State
          2b 53- Victor Abiamiri DE, Notre Dame
          3a 66- Tim Crowder DE, Texas
          3b 70- Tony Hunt RB, Penn State
          3c 85- Josh Gattis SS, Wake Forest

          The Cal homer in me would also be very happy if we made Desmond Bishop (ILB) a Day 2 priority.
          sigpic

          "Sauced."- Broshown Broenbro

          Comment


          • #6
            We both can't and won't trade down for the same reason that we couldn't do it last season. We simply don't have the money to support a ton of draft picks. Shanny said that was the reason he was trying to lump all of his picks together and just get 1 really high one. This season, we will most likely go after some FA's, and that will limit the number of rookies we can bring in.

            Comment


            • #7
              We could possibly trade into the top 10. We trade Jake Plummer and our 1st for either the Buccs or Texans first and 4th or 5th. I think that Shanny wants a stud WR to go a long with Walker, someone like Calvin Johnson. Shanny probably also wants Adrian Peterson and the only way is to move to get the Buccs pick. If we move down, we should trade our current first for a future first and a third rounder. That way we don't lose anything too significent. This year has talent, but if we could have two first rounders next year. It would greatly improve our team next year no matter who get this year.

              Comment


              • #8
                I Love Desmond Bishop

                Originally posted by fullcollapse
                Although my opinions may change post combine I really like
                this idea in this draft class.

                If we are drafting based on need, this draft is perfect for trading down.
                Like dogfish said the quality really drops off about half-way through round one.

                If our pick is worth 800 points on the value board an ideal partner would be the Lions with picks 34 & 66 (820 points.) We could throw in our 6th round pick (19 points.) The 21st pick would be great for the Lions to grab a CB like Revis, Hughes, or Ross since Dre Bly is asking to be traded.

                At #34 we could grab the best 1st round DL that slides (Moss, Moses, Tyler?)
                Another option would be a player like Meriweather or Irons who just miss out on the first round.

                If this were the case my ideal 2nd and 3rd round would be.

                2a 34- Tank Tyler DT, NC State
                2b 53- Victor Abiamiri DE, Notre Dame
                3a 66- Tim Crowder DE, Texas
                3b 70- Tony Hunt RB, Penn State
                3c 85- Josh Gattis SS, Wake Forest

                The Cal homer in me would also be very happy if we made Desmond Bishop (ILB) a Day 2 priority.
                I love this guy. He could come in and take over at strong side and allow DJ to go back to his dominating ways at weak side. The school itself has a lot of talent that we need. Lynch, Mebane, Bishop, and Hughes. How funny would that be if we drafted nothing but CAL players with the first four picks.
                09-17-08: OFFICIALLY BACKING JARVIS MOSS TO TURN INTO ONE HELL OF A DEFENSIVE END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO YEARS.-we are all allowed one mistake, right?

                Loved McD 's first full FA. Can't wait to see the draft.

                2010 Draft WISHlist:

                Any center since we don't have one.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Not like I would mind trading down, I have mentioned it way before now...but I am not for stocking them later, I would rather see them pull a smart move and add more picks this year.

                  One possibility would be to trade our 1st Round Pick to Tampa Bay for their two 2nd Round picks. Also Denver could go with a more standard trade like trading our 1st Round pick to Detroit for their 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 5th Round picks this year.

                  I would be more interested in a Detroit trade, but that is me. However I think value will be there if they did trade down. And in my opinion unless they can get Okoye, Lynch or Irons with our first pick, then trading down would be very smart. Also if there is any truth to the Green Bay trade, Denver would trade Tatum Bell and the 5th Round pick to Green Bay for KGB and their 4th Round pick - this could net the Broncos in the scenario I suggested with two 2nd Round picks, three 3rd Round picks, a 4th Round pick, a 5th Round pick, a 6th Round pick and a 7th Round pick: So overall Denver would have nine picks and get KGB, not to mention they would have five first day picks, though likely a pipe dream...I do believe we could see something similar if Denver felt they could not get those top round players they target.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    not with the increase in salary cap

                    Originally posted by jhns
                    We both can't and won't trade down for the same reason that we couldn't do it last season. We simply don't have the money to support a ton of draft picks. Shanny said that was the reason he was trying to lump all of his picks together and just get 1 really high one. This season, we will most likely go after some FA's, and that will limit the number of rookies we can bring in.

                    The increase in salary cap is allowing more money for teams to spend, but at the same time, FA players realize this and expect teams to be able to spring for more money on them. Its basic economics really. All of the good FA will be bought up by the teams that can afford them...We cannot at this point, afford good FA players. We can get some guys who are descent, but probably not starters, and probably less talented then players we could get via the draft. And also, the higher a player is taken in the draft, the more the team is required to pay him. So unless shanny plans on trading up for only about two draft picks on the first day, then there won't be that much increase in how much we spend in the draft.
                    09-17-08: OFFICIALLY BACKING JARVIS MOSS TO TURN INTO ONE HELL OF A DEFENSIVE END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO YEARS.-we are all allowed one mistake, right?

                    Loved McD 's first full FA. Can't wait to see the draft.

                    2010 Draft WISHlist:

                    Any center since we don't have one.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Detroit is most likely

                      Originally posted by lancane
                      Not like I would mind trading down, I have mentioned it way before now...but I am not for stocking them later, I would rather see them pull a smart move and add more picks this year.

                      One possibility would be to trade our 1st Round Pick to Tampa Bay for their two 2nd Round picks. Also Denver could go with a more standard trade like trading our 1st Round pick to Detroit for their 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 5th Round picks this year.

                      I would be more interested in a Detroit trade, but that is me. However I think value will be there if they did trade down. And in my opinion unless they can get Okoye, Lynch or Irons with our first pick, then trading down would be very smart. Also if there is any truth to the Green Bay trade, Denver would trade Tatum Bell and the 5th Round pick to Green Bay for KGB and their 4th Round pick - this could net the Broncos in the scenario I suggested with two 2nd Round picks, three 3rd Round picks, a 4th Round pick, a 5th Round pick, a 6th Round pick and a 7th Round pick: So overall Denver would have nine picks and get KGB, not to mention they would have five first day picks, though likely a pipe dream...I do believe we could see something similar if Denver felt they could not get those top round players they target.
                      While I would much rather trade to tampa for their two second rounders, it isn't worth it to them, according to the draft point chart. I think detroit would be more realistic. I agree with you, I want the picks we trade for to be this year, though if they were for next year, I don't think it would hurt us that bad. Next years draft appears to be stocked with talent.
                      09-17-08: OFFICIALLY BACKING JARVIS MOSS TO TURN INTO ONE HELL OF A DEFENSIVE END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO YEARS.-we are all allowed one mistake, right?

                      Loved McD 's first full FA. Can't wait to see the draft.

                      2010 Draft WISHlist:

                      Any center since we don't have one.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by muffcon350
                        The increase in salary cap is allowing more money for teams to spend, but at the same time, FA players realize this and expect teams to be able to spring for more money on them. Its basic economics really. All of the good FA will be bought up by the teams that can afford them...We cannot at this point, afford good FA players. We can get some guys who are descent, but probably not starters, and probably less talented then players we could get via the draft. And also, the higher a player is taken in the draft, the more the team is required to pay him. So unless shanny plans on trading up for only about two draft picks on the first day, then there won't be that much increase in how much we spend in the draft.
                        Yes, after the increase and before cuts we have about 2.6 million in space. There will be more than that after cuts/trades happen but it won't be enough to stockpile rookies with. This is especially true if we pick up any FA's. We will be able to afford 1 or 2 good FA's after cuts though, and you should expect that Shanny will bring in at least 1 veteran. We are way to young to be trying to fill this team with even more youth. Especially youth that would be expected to play. This is why we won't stockpile picks. We have a few positions that will have new starters and I wouldn't expect all of those new starters to be rookies.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          a bit too early. . .

                          It is still a little bit to early to really be able to say with any certainty what the team is likely to do. It really all boils down to what we do in FA and what is potentially done with Plummer, Tater (if he is to be moved), Foster, Myers, and so on.

                          Say we move all of the above mentioned players (either via trade or just letting them go like what seems likely with Myers) and get something in return for each of them that we can. If we pick up either picks or other players then it will directly determine what we do in the draft. For instance, what if we pick up a couple of 4th round picks or a 3rd and 4th. Then it would seem more likely that those picks get packaged together to move us up either higher into the first round or at least move us into the 2nd round again.

                          Or we trade all of the above players for other players that can fill team needs. Then it would seem a lot more plausible to trade down and out of the first round altogether to save cap room for the incoming players.

                          Plus there is also another option. The team could always trade current picks for future picks. For example a team could trade a 3rd rounder and two 4th round picks for another teams 2nd round pick in next years draft. We can't forget that these types of deals are actually made all of the time.

                          So, with all of that in mind I suggest that everyone sit tight until we get through the combine and at least through the early phases of FA to get of feel for what the FO is really up to this year. Then it will be easier to say with some accuracy what it is that we will do with our first pick be it use it, trade up, or trade down. Personally I want two things: to acquire quality players and to get out of salary cap hell. If we can manage either of those things, or even better yet both of those things that is what I would want to happen. I believe that the FO can do this for us if they remain alert and are smart and aggressive with their decisions.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by jhns
                            Yes, after the increase and before cuts we have about 2.6 million in space. There will be more than that after cuts/trades happen but it won't be enough to stockpile rookies with. This is especially true if we pick up any FA's. We will be able to afford 1 or 2 good FA's after cuts though, and you should expect that Shanny will bring in at least 1 veteran. We are way to young to be trying to fill this team with even more youth. Especially youth that would be expected to play. This is why we won't stockpile picks. We have a few positions that will have new starters and I wouldn't expect all of those new starters to be rookies.

                            I am not saying that we should fill all of our needs with rookies, but I am saying is that there isn't much cap room for us to be able to afford the high costs of good free agents. Not saying we won't go after and possibly get one or two, but just stating that most of the good ones will go to teams that can pay them more. Where we could pay a good DE 800,000 worth of cap money and give them 1 million on a signing bonus to spread over a few years, another team, like the niners or titans, could give them two million worth of cap money and still give the same amount of a signing bonus. For this reason, I think we will be hard pressed to find very many players worthy of bringing in. I do think we have a shot at Patrick Kerney, and I think shanny will bring in a vet QB to play behind cutler. (hope he calls Bubby Brister) For what we could pay for three or four FA this offseason, we could have twice as many people in the draft if we trade out of the first. The first is where the big contracts are. Look at Tony Scheffler, he was drafted second round, and makes less money than if we brought in someone like Graham from the PATS. I see what your point is about bringing in more people means having to pay more people, but bringing in fewer people that will cost more isn't cost efficient either. Also, Shanny did combine picks to trade up last year for cap reasons, but the difference in this year and last year is that last year we had two first round picks that would have required us to pay two players very high salaries. This year we only have one. If we trade it away for a second and third, or possibly future picks, we would pay less money for more players.

                            And just because a guy is a veteran doesn't mean he will be better than a rookie. Look at Colston, Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler, Jones-Drew. all got lots of PT OVER vets and improved their teams. Next year we will see a huge increase in available cap so I wouldn't be suprised if we trade down for future picks to stock up on great talent next year.
                            09-17-08: OFFICIALLY BACKING JARVIS MOSS TO TURN INTO ONE HELL OF A DEFENSIVE END WITHIN THE NEXT TWO YEARS.-we are all allowed one mistake, right?

                            Loved McD 's first full FA. Can't wait to see the draft.

                            2010 Draft WISHlist:

                            Any center since we don't have one.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by jhns
                              We both can't and won't trade down for the same reason that we couldn't do it last season. We simply don't have the money to support a ton of draft picks. Shanny said that was the reason he was trying to lump all of his picks together and just get 1 really high one. This season, we will most likely go after some FA's, and that will limit the number of rookies we can bring in.
                              If that were true than Why did we try and trade back into the first round to pick up Maroney?
                              http://216.58.161.132/forums/showthread.php?p=497087#post497087

                              Above I will list all my predictions for the 2005 season.

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