Originally posted by TheFuture6
I was just posting who I would draft were I in Shanny's position. But let's ponder what happens if the safety-dt-de people get their wish, which they very well may.
The Broncos, without a big short-yardage back and without a bigger offensive line, should stay about the same in short yardage situations, which means they will get 12 rushing TDs like they did last season. That's less than one rushing TD a game, and is tied for 18th in the league. It suggests a great inability to get the ball into the endzone in short yardage situations.
Last season, the Bronco offense ranked 21st in first downs per game, 21st in third downs made, 20th in third-down percentage, 15th in time of possession (admittedly, the eagles and colts ranked even lower in TOP). That suggests to me they got some problems up front. Yeah, they got a better tailback and a better tight end. But these stats tell the nitty-gritty -- can you run the ball when the other team knows you're going to run the ball? Can you run it when you have to run it? The answer is, no.
Will their passing game be better with the simple addition of Graham and Stokely? It better be, because they were 26th in the league in passing yardage per game. Admittedly, they ranked 26th in passing attempts per game, but they were 30th in pass completions per game, which means their completion percentage was below average. They were 16th in passing TDs, 24th in passing first downs, worse than the average in sacks per pass attempt and 16th in total points. Not promising for a wishful Super Bowl contender.
The defense did rank 18th in the league in sacks, and 12th in rushing defense and 21st in passing yards given up. My draft would have them taking a DE in the second round, so they would be improving their pass rush and D-line play. They have Ferguson and Brandon back from injuries and have added Bly to the starting secondary. They ranked in the top half of the league in interceptions, and 8th in the league in points allowed, despite season-ending injuries to their starting strong safety and his immediate backup. That suggests that safety is not an immediate need for the Broncos.
Yeah, safeties are sexier, but linemen are bigger.
And let's remember what happened last season:
Last game of the season - San Francisco, one of the lesser teams in the league. But Denver HAS to win. The Broncos get 3 -- 3! -- rushing first downs. Against the 49ers! They go 3-13 on third down. They get outscored 20-10 in the second half. They score 23 points on the 49ers in 65 minutes, when the 49ers gave up an AVERAGE of 26 points in 60 minutes to everyone else.
Next to last game of the season - Cincinnati, a mediocre team. Broncos must win. They do, by 1 point because the Bengals were unable to convert a point-after attempt. Broncos defense plays without Nick Ferguson. Domonique Foxworth, playing strong safety, leads the team in tackles with 12. Broncos get 6 rushing first downs, compared to the Bengals' 10. Jay Cutler is sacked 3 times. The mighty Bungals dominate the Broncos in all offensive categories.
13th game. San Diego. Broncos sure could use a win against a division rival. Opening drive stalls at Charger 45. Broncs have a chance to bury Chargers inside their own 10, but Ernster booms a 27-yard punt. Chargers take it to Broncs 45. Scifres drops it on the Bronco 8. It makes a difference. Broncs fumble, end up punting from their 4. Chargers get it at the Broncos' 40 and take it in for 7. Broncos get the ball at their 21, thanks to another no-name Bronco receiver named Brian Clark (Hey, at least he can return kicks). A penalty, a 1-yard rush and a fumble later, the Broncos punt from their own 14. Chargers get it near mid-field, take it into the endzone again. The rest of the game follows this pattern, with a few exceptions: Chargers get great field position because Denver offense cannot move the ball when it needs to or Ernster gets off a bad punt. Denver finishes 2 of 10 in third-down conversions. Both Bronco TDs come off passes, one TD drive resulting from a SD fumble on a kick return. Of 28 Bronco running plays, 11 go for 2 yards or less. Cutler is sacked 4 times. Despite a 47-yarder that is allowed to bounce into the endzone, Ernster averages 39.8 yards a punt.
San Diego, the Bronco's primary division rival, has the 7th-best rush defense in the league.
Nope, I'm sorry, but I stand by my assertion that the Broncos' most immediate need is along the offensive line. They must get better to compete against their division rivals. They also can't afford a punting game such as they had last season. Yes, they do need to get better along the defensive line, which is why I have them drafting a good all-around DE in the second round. No immediate need at safety unless Ferguson and Brandon both get injured again this season.
Remember who the Broncos had on their offensive line when they won the Super Bowl? Zimmerman, Schlereth, Bryan et al. were pro-bowlers and future hall of famers.
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