Fundamental question

[sbutk]

about drafting strategies. [And please, noone berate me for asing a "rookie question". I know you won't, though, since Broncomaniacs are, in general, a respectable bunch. Haha.]

In an article (http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_5670088) that I was linked to from one of the threads concerning Al Wilson, is the following passage.

Most draft analysts project Harris as an early second- round pick, which
means the Broncos could either trade down from their No. 21 overall first-round pick, or move up from their No. 56 overall position in the second round.

First of all, who is responsible for doing this "projecting"? And secondly, what is a projection based on? (I'm assuming it must be related to the order that teams draft in; the needs of those teams; and the relative abilities of the various players at that position.)

Now, I can plainly understand why a team would feel the need to "move up" in the draft order, in order to snag a player that they're interested in: because any team with the same positional need who is slated to draft ahead of them is prone to snatch that player before it comes around to the Broncos turn to draft.

What is less evident to me is why we would want to "trade down from our No. 21 spot". If the player's services are exactly what the team needs, then why don't we simply pick him up at 21?

I'll now attempt to answer my own question: Is it simply because we want to maximize the value that we get out of our overall draft? Perhaps LB is not the biggest need of our team, and hence our No. 21 pick should be spent on a more-needed position? Of course, then we run the risk of the guy not being around any longer, by the time our next draft pick rolls around. If LB is indeed our biggest need, I'd say we should just go ahead and spend our No. 21 pick on him. On the other hand, trying to maximize our draft value, I suppose we could trade down - hoping Harris will stil be around, of course - in order to try to improve the order of our later-round picks.

Finally, I guess another possibility is that rookies expect - I say expect, because I doubt anything is written in stone - to garner a contract whose size is proportional to the order in which they get picked. So trading down could potentially be viewed as a cost-saving move, I suppose.


...Anybody have any insight they'd be willing to share? Personally, this is one of the most confusing aspects of the season to me. Thanks!

[scotto291]

i think you pretty much answered your own question. they just don't want to overkill with a high pick on a player who shouldn't be picked that soon when they can get extra picks and still get their player.

[WCOfan]

picking him at 21 is unnecessary as he will be there later, so they try to trade back so they can pick him and probably get an extra pick

[TheFuture6]

picking him at 21 is unnecessary as he will be there later, so they try to trade back so they can pick him and probably get an extra pick

But its Shanahan, if he wants to take him, he'll reach....

[sbutk]

picking him at 21 is unnecessary as he will be there later, so they try to trade back so they can pick him and probably get an extra pick

i.e. Trade down, possibly in return for more lower-round picks?

That'd make good sense, I suppose.

[sbutk]

But its Shanahan, if he wants to take him, he'll reach....

Haha. I don't doubt that.

[gyldenlove]

A players value is determined by several factors, how dominant he was as a college player, will his skills translate to the NFL, can he develope even futher or is he at his peak and is he likely be draftet early based on need.

A lot of scouts, general managers, beat writers and draft "experts" rank players and analyze in what round they are likely to be draftet.

The reason Harris is projected to be a 2nd round pick is that there are better LB than him in the draft based on what they have shown in college, the "book" on him is that he is an intelligent player who has a high motor and never stops on a play, however he lacks ideal athletisism, has a history of injuries and there are some doubts if the players he has played with at Michigan might have made him seem better than he is. He lacks the top athletisism of Patrick Willis and in general MLB's are drafted quite low because it is a skill position, so most MLB's take a while to catch on to the nfl level of play.

You are pretty much spot on with the value, basicly there is no need to draft a player as number 21 if he could be had as number 41, it is of course a bit of a lottery decision, but that is the gist of it.

With the position we are in right now, I don't see us drafting LB early unless by some freak coincidence there should be one like Willis available. It is not a major need, Gold and Williams are set to start and Webster has good starting experience and fits the scheme. I would guess we will draft a LB on day 2 and hope he turns out to be a starter. Our bigger areas of need are Defensive Tackle, we only have DT that fits the mold of the Bates system. We need a Safety because our 2 starters are well over 30 and the only solid backup we have is not great against the pass. We need an Offensive Tackle, we only have 3 on the roster, Lepsis is coming back from injury, Pears needs to develope futher to be a productive starter and Meadows has been out of action for a long time. We also need a Defensive End, we have 3 people who are solid players, Lang, Dumervil and Ekuban, that is not enough. Secondary needs are Wide reciever, best case scenario is that both Stokley and Smith comes back from their injuries and we will have a solid but old group, worst case is that neither makes it back and Walker, Marshall and Kircus are left to fill out the depth chart. Linebacker is a secondary need, for now Webster, Gold and Williams is a good group, but a bigger guy to man the strong side would be good.

That makes 6 players, we have 7 picks, I expect the last one to be either an RB, C or QB, probably a 6th or 7th round flyer, hoping for another TD.

[Cugel]

Players have a draft value that is not really that directly related to their skill on the field.

Basically, it all depends on what other teams will do, and how other teams have rated a player.

For instance, there are very few franchise QBs and penetrating elite DTs in any draft. So, if you need one of those players you have to use a very high first round pick (usually top 15 picks and often top 10) to get one. A certain LB or DB might have more skill, but if there are more players available who can play that position, you can afford to wait and get one later. Thus, even the best LBs will rarely be considered as the top couple of picks, G's and FBs are seldom 1st round picks, and K and P almost never (Al Davis aside). Not that those players are unimportant on the field, it's just that they'll be available in the 2nd or later round, because teams don't tend to consider them for 1st round selections.

Sometimes a player will slip for one reason or another or be simply mis-evaluated (T.D. and Tom Brady slipping to the 6th round for instance, when if teams knew their real value, either would have been the #1 overall pick of the draft).

But, generally where a player will go depends on how other teams evaluate him. Now the Broncos might have their eye on a G who they like and who fits their offense. But, unless they think other teams have a first day draft "grade" i.e. 1st through 3rd round grade on that player, there's no reason to take him on the first day.

He'll still be there in the later rounds.

Conversely, it's bad to "reach" for a player -- i.e. take him a round or two before you should (based on how other teams evaluate that player).

An example of that would be Shanahan reaching for Darius Watts in the 2nd round when other teams had him as potentially a 4th round pick. That usually backfires, because unless you are sure the guy is going to be a star, then it's better to wait and get him in a later round.

Overall you have to compete with other teams by anticipating who they will take in a given round, then manuvering to take the players you like who won't be there later and leave the players you think will still be on the board till a later round.

This would be almost impossible, except that every team scouts so much that despite differences, teams wind up with a general idea how other teams are grading each top player. The closer to the top of the draft the more this is true. The top 10 to 15 players are so heavily scouted that everybody knows almost everthing about them and there are few secrets about who is considering what player at the top of the draft.

They are all considering the same 10-15 guys.

Last year for instance, everybody knew that Vince Young, Mario Williams and Reggie Bush were considered by all the teams to be the top players in the draft. What order they'd go depended partly on team needs, but overall they were the possible candidates for #1 overall out of all the hundreds of draft-eligible players.

[sbutk]

Players have a draft value that is not really that directly related to their skill on the field.

Basically, it all depends on what other teams will do, and how other teams have rated a player.

For instance, there are very few franchise QBs and penetrating elite DTs in any draft. So, if you need one of those players you have to use a very high first round pick (usually top 15 picks and often top 10) to get one. A certain LB or DB might have more skill, but if there are more players available who can play that position, you can afford to wait and get one later. Thus, even the best LBs will rarely be considered as the top couple of picks, G's and FBs are seldom 1st round picks, and K and P almost never (Al Davis aside). Not that those players are unimportant on the field, it's just that they'll be available in the 2nd or later round, because teams don't tend to consider them for 1st round selections.

Sometimes a player will slip for one reason or another or be simply mis-evaluated (T.D. and Tom Brady slipping to the 6th round for instance, when if teams knew their real value, either would have been the #1 overall pick of the draft).

But, generally where a player will go depends on how other teams evaluate him. Now the Broncos might have their eye on a G who they like and who fits their offense. But, unless they think other teams have a first day draft "grade" i.e. 1st through 3rd round grade on that player, there's no reason to take him on the first day.

He'll still be there in the later rounds.

Conversely, it's bad to "reach" for a player -- i.e. take him a round or two before you should (based on how other teams evaluate that player).

An example of that would be Shanahan reaching for Darius Watts in the 2nd round when other teams had him as potentially a 4th round pick. That usually backfires, because unless you are sure the guy is going to be a star, then it's better to wait and get him in a later round.

Overall you have to compete with other teams by anticipating who they will take in a given round, then manuvering to take the players you like who won't be there later and leave the players you think will still be on the board till a later round.

This would be almost impossible, except that every team scouts so much that despite differences, teams wind up with a general idea how other teams are grading each top player. The closer to the top of the draft the more this is true. The top 10 to 15 players are so heavily scouted that everybody knows almost everthing about them and there are few secrets about who is considering what player at the top of the draft.

They are all considering the same 10-15 guys.

Last year for instance, everybody knew that Vince Young, Mario Williams and Reggie Bush were considered by all the teams to be the top players in the draft. What order they'd go depended partly on team needs, but overall they were the possible candidates for #1 overall out of all the hundreds of draft-eligible players.

That was a great answer, thanks. You're another one I'll owe CP to. (I have to "spread it around" first.)