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Expert 1st Round Mock Drafts

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  • Sevenis7
    replied
    Originally posted by CasualFan
    Whether we should worry about value or not, Shanahan seems not to worry about it that much. Draft experts have observed in prior drafts that, while they could understand various picks he made in that they filled needs, he seemed to be taking many of the players about a round high. Which seems to suggest that Shanahan cares more about getting the players he wants than he does about maximizing the "value" of his draft picks. That in turn makes him look worse at drafting than other coaches -- it's one thing if your third-rounder busts, and quite another if your second-rounder does. I'm not sure if Shanahan's bust rate is that much higher than others, but the optics are worse.

    There are arguments pro and con, I'm just observing that Shanahan seems to draft with less regard for theoretical draft pick value maximization than many draft gurus do.
    Thanks for the info. CP to you.

    Leave a comment:


  • CasualFan
    replied
    Foolio, all your talk about "value" has me a bit scared. I'd rather "reach" for a player that can contribute, rather than wait on a lesser player that may not pan out simply b/c I'm worried about "value".
    Whether we should worry about value or not, Shanahan seems not to worry about it that much. Draft experts have observed in prior drafts that, while they could understand various picks he made in that they filled needs, he seemed to be taking many of the players about a round high. Which seems to suggest that Shanahan cares more about getting the players he wants than he does about maximizing the "value" of his draft picks. That in turn makes him look worse at drafting than other coaches -- it's one thing if your third-rounder busts, and quite another if your second-rounder does. I'm not sure if Shanahan's bust rate is that much higher than others, but the optics are worse.

    There are arguments pro and con, I'm just observing that Shanahan seems to draft with less regard for theoretical draft pick value maximization than many draft gurus do.

    Leave a comment:


  • TheFuture6
    replied
    Originally posted by Cugel
    I think I might be sick if there are NO DL taken by the Broncos on the first day. But if they take a LB round one, I'll just have to hold my breath until Round 2 before I start breaking things.
    I agree 100%.

    Let me go on record, though, as saying that Pete Prisco is an idiot. If we draft a WR in the 1st, my head is going to explode....

    Leave a comment:


  • Charlie Brown
    replied
    I'll begin by stating I do not personally 'like' any of those three mocks. In fact, I wish the draft would finally arrive so I don't have to deal with these things anymore. But as long as they exist I will respond to them interjecting with my feelings towards the mocks and giving insight into how I feel.

    With these three mocks. The first one having the Browns taking Brady Quinn, the second one having the Browns taking Adrian Peterson, and the third one taking Brady Quinn. I am at a loss of words over how I feel, I am that perturbed. However, if the draft was to turn out the way they have it I would much prefer Pete Prisco's mock and would generally be distressed with the first round but hopefully the other rounds at least butter me up enough to prevent me from having a very rough weekend.

    The reason I feel this way is because the offensive line should be the Browns #1 priority in the draft.

    In the first mock the Browns are going for Brady Quinn OVER Joe Thomas which is not good at all. In the second, the Browns are going after Adrian Peterson OVER Joe Thomas. Once again, that's bad as the #1 priority of the Browns is OL and they are ignoring it. Now, in the third mock (by Prisco BTW) has the Browns going for Brady Quinn since Joe Thomas is off the board. I'm not pleased with that, but it at least shows that the Browns very well could have or would have selected Thomas if he had been at #3.

    Leave a comment:


  • TXBRONC
    replied
    Rasizer seems to think that DT and DE are still of first importance.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/teams/broncos/

    By Lee Rasizer
    For Sporting News
    April 15, 2007


    DECISION MAKERS: Coach Mike Shanahan makes the calls, but the draft is a democratic process--votes are taken and opinions are encouraged. With G.M. Ted Sundquist and director of player personnel Jim Goodman, both college scouting veterans, in the room, there is a wealth of knowledge from which to draw.
    DRAFT BUZZ: The team has a history of making trades on draft day, but this year's situation--two third-round picks and none in the fourth or fifth round--does not have an obvious solution. The team could use the extra third-round pick as part of a package to move up and grab a defensive lineman, or it could trade the choice to get more picks. Regardless, because the team's free-agent focus was on offense, most of its draft picks will be defensive players.

    TARGETING: The team's biggest need is a defensive tackle, but with the top ones likely to be gone before the 21st pick, adding juice to the outside pass rush could be the first-round priority. Nebraska DE Adam Carriker has a great motor and could play power end on running downs and allow Ebenezer Ekuban to serve as a spot rusher. Purdue DE Anthony Spencer and Florida DE Jarvis Moss also are solid first-round possibilities. If Michigan DT Alan Branch plummets, however, the team will grab him; he has the size (6-5 3/4, 324) and skills that fit Jim Bates' defense. Tennessee DT Justin Harrell and Florida DT Marcus Thomas are second-round options. After releasing MLB Al Wilson, the Broncos could look for a linebacker in the early rounds. They would be thrilled if Mississippi's Patrick Willis fell to them in Round 1. They also could take a safety--as insurance for Nick Ferguson and his balky knees--on the first day; Florida's Reggie Nelson would be a good fit. On Day 2, they likely will look for offensive linemen and running backs.

    Leave a comment:


  • Cutler2007
    replied
    If Beason is on the board at #21, Detroit would be a great trade down partner. Trading up, you would have to think Panthers and Packers would both want to trade down. Panthers looking for S, TE or LB would be better off at #21 where Olsen, Griffin, Beason and maybe Ginn may all still be available. GB I think will pass on RB and go WR, and #21 is a great spot for WR.

    If Anderson or Carriker is available at #14 we should call and do a price check and see if a third rounder gets it done.

    Leave a comment:


  • Cugel
    replied
    Originally posted by Sevenis7
    Foolio, all your talk about "value" has me a bit scared. I'd rather "reach" for a player that can contribute, rather than wait on a lesser player that may not pan out simply b/c I'm worried about "value".

    Piscitelli, Weddle, and Rouse are not even close to the players Griffin and Merriwether are.

    Don't we need a MLB instead of OLB? I know the plan is to move DJ to MLB (a position he has never played, and his 3rd position change in 4 years), but I think we're better off having someone w/experience at the position instead. Hartwell?
    Why? For the first time the Broncos are set to get actual value out of D.J. Williams being a first round pick! Instead of leaving him buried at SLB where he doesn't make many plays and gets taken out on 3rd downs, he can earn his money over at MLB and let Nate Webster or Louis Green play his old position. That actually makes sense.

    Getting an OLB to eventually replace Ian Gold makes sense, I just hope it doesn't have to happen in the first round. DT, DE or S, or possibly OT if there's a good one available like Joe Staley (who is a former TE who lettered in track in high-school and has the necessary speed). Those are the Broncos needs that could be addressed by a first round pick.

    Leave a comment:


  • Mat'hir Uth Gan
    replied
    Originally posted by foolio2000
    Well, it is probably because that is where the best value for our pick is. Unless, Branch or Anderson do end up falling to us.

    For our needs: DE, DT, OT, S, and now LB the best value is LB, because that is where the top 3 OLB are projected to go: Beason, Timmons, and Puz; there is also Michael Griffin at 21, but there is better value at S in the 3rd: Piscitelli, Weddle, and maybe Rouse.

    Concerning DE and DT there is better value in the 2nd and early 3rd: Abiamiri, Moses, Marcus Thomas, Soliai.

    With OT it looks like there will be no value at 21 because I have seen about 5 mock drafts with Staley going at 20 to the Giants, so we will do our Denver thing and wait until later rounds to address O-line (well, that is my belief)

    So to the experts it makes the most sense to address LB in the first.
    At least it is not CBs anymore.

    I agree completely with your logic. It sounds very familiar.

    Leave a comment:


  • Sevenis7
    replied
    Originally posted by foolio2000
    Well, it is probably because that is where the best value for our pick is. Unless, Branch or Anderson do end up falling to us.

    For our needs: DE, DT, OT, S, and now LB the best value is LB, because that is where the top 3 OLB are projected to go: Beason, Timmons, and Puz; there is also Michael Griffin at 21, but there is better value at S in the 3rd: Piscitelli, Weddle, and maybe Rouse.
    Foolio, all your talk about "value" has me a bit scared. I'd rather "reach" for a player that can contribute, rather than wait on a lesser player that may not pan out simply b/c I'm worried about "value".

    Piscitelli, Weddle, and Rouse are not even close to the players Griffin and Merriwether are.

    Don't we need a MLB instead of OLB? I know the plan is to move DJ to MLB (a position he has never played, and his 3rd position change in 4 years), but I think we're better off having someone w/experience at the position instead. Hartwell?

    Leave a comment:


  • hankin22
    replied
    i would love to see Denver draft Jon Beason....but we do need a passrusher

    Leave a comment:


  • Cugel
    replied
    Originally posted by foolio2000
    Well, it is probably because that is where the best value for our pick is. Unless, Branch or Anderson do end up falling to us.

    For our needs: DE, DT, OT, S, and now LB the best value is LB, because that is where the top 3 OLB are projected to go: Beason, Timmons, and Puz; there is also Michael Griffin at 21, but there is better value at S in the 3rd: Piscitelli, Weddle, and maybe Rouse.

    Concerning DE and DT there is better value in the 2nd and early 3rd: Abiamiri, Moses, Marcus Thomas, Soliai.

    With OT it looks like there will be no value at 21 because I have seen about 5 mock drafts with Staley going at 20 to the Giants, so we will do our Denver thing and wait until later rounds to address O-line (well, that is my belief)

    So to the experts it makes the most sense to address LB in the first.
    At least it is not CBs anymore.
    I think I might be sick if there are NO DL taken by the Broncos on the first day. But if they take a LB round one, I'll just have to hold my breath until Round 2 before I start breaking things.

    Leave a comment:


  • foolio2000
    replied
    Well, it is probably because that is where the best value for our pick is. Unless, Branch or Anderson do end up falling to us.

    For our needs: DE, DT, OT, S, and now LB the best value is LB, because that is where the top 3 OLB are projected to go: Beason, Timmons, and Puz; there is also Michael Griffin at 21, but there is better value at S in the 3rd: Piscitelli, Weddle, and maybe Rouse.

    Concerning DE and DT there is better value in the 2nd and early 3rd: Abiamiri, Moses, Marcus Thomas, Soliai.

    With OT it looks like there will be no value at 21 because I have seen about 5 mock drafts with Staley going at 20 to the Giants, so we will do our Denver thing and wait until later rounds to address O-line (well, that is my belief)

    So to the experts it makes the most sense to address LB in the first.
    At least it is not CBs anymore.

    Leave a comment:


  • tommy1986
    started a topic Expert 1st Round Mock Drafts

    Expert 1st Round Mock Drafts

    Below is a page containing three 1st Round mock drafts, two of which were created yesterday:

    http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/draft/mock

    Folks seem to think Denver will go LB in the 1st now.
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