The History of MUG and the Draft (2004)

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Well, deleted the 2004 Draft Forum back in 2005, so that limited the vast majority of draft-specific related content for the 2004 draft, and erased a ridiculous amount of posts and effort. At least that was the last year they did that as the 2005 draft forum onwards still remain.

However, due to a post by Mindfield, I'm going to be revisiting my draft projections and analysis up to the present draft.

Unfortunately, the projection aspect will have to wait until 2005's draft since 2004's stuff was deleted. But, I did find some posts from back then in General Discussion that touched on the 2004 draft and alot of draft theories, which apply directly to the coming 2008 draft, so at least we have something to discuss. If anyone wants to partake in this discussion that is....

Regardless, we are basically in the exact same boat we were heading into 2004. It's kind of amazing in a way. And a pretty fun read, I was such an egotistical prick back then wasn't I? I'm glad that's changed...err..wait...


THREADS

This was my first post/thread ever on Broncomania. Do you still think it applies now? I do.

4/11/2004 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=9924


More detail about defensives line and DTs, declaring how great Wilfork would be, and theories re the D-line which apply to this year's draft.

9/21/2004 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=17903


More theories on D-line v. LBs. Does anyone feel these apply to the 2008 draft?

11/01/2004 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=20979


Even more theories about the D-line. And isn't it amazing that Coyer in 2004 is facing the exact same questions and problems that Bates is going into 2008? Amazing.

11/29/2004 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=22581



MISC. POSTS

Stressing the error of taking DJ Williams over a DT prospect like Wilfork.

9/13/2004 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...6&postcount=16


Prediction that due to Shanahan ignoring our D-line, especially DT, we will suffer for years to come. Oops!

9/27/04 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...88&postcount=8


I was challenged, I prevailed.

9/28/04 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...8&postcount=13


More Wilfork (and DTs) have higher value then Williams( LBs) goodness.

2/23/05 http://forums.denverbroncos.com/show...ghlight=starks




My questions are thus:

1) Do you agree or disagree with the DT v. LB value theories? Would you take Vince Wilfork over DJ Williams today?

2) Do you agree its remarkable that Coyer heading into 2004 and Bates heading into 2008 have the exact same problem? And that we haven't fixed our problem longterm in 5 years is insanity? Does that tick anyone else off?

3) Do you think we repeat our mistakes of yesteryear and bypass an elite DT for another position yet again, possibly LB again?

[Schism]

Great stuff, I wouldn't even pretend to have anywhere near your knowledge of the draft or football in general so I always enjoy reading your posts on here. I look forward to one day passing your opinions off as my own in discussions with friends.

Question for you.

Do you think that Okam would be able to come in and immediately make the kind of impact we need on the D-Line as a rookie? DT is a position that players generally struggle as rookies, so would you advocate looking to acquire another NT either through FA or trade to spell with Okam for next year so as not to put too much pressure on him?

The way I see it we have Thomas and McKinley as DT's that I expect to still be here at the start of next season, both are more penetrative types when we really need a run stuffer alongside them to make Bates system work and, given my point about it being difficult for rookies at DT, we really need two (Okam and a veteran) don't we?

Are there any FA DT's that could fill such a role, or anyone that we could realistically trade for?

Also, what do you see Foxworth's value being if we decide to trade him, which I'd rather do than lose him for nothing next year?

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Great stuff, I wouldn't even pretend to have anywhere near your knowledge of the draft or football in general so I always enjoy reading your posts on here. I look forward to one day passing your opinions off as my own in discussions with friends.

Question for you.

Do you think that Okam would be able to come in and immediately make the kind of impact we need on the D-Line as a rookie? DT is a position that players generally struggle as rookies, so would you advocate looking to acquire another NT either through FA or trade to spell with Okam for next year so as not to put too much pressure on him?

The way I see it we have Thomas and McKinley as DT's that I expect to still be here at the start of next season, both are more penetrative types when we really need a run stuffer alongside them to make Bates system work and, given my point about it being difficult for rookies at DT, we really need two (Okam and a veteran) don't we?

Are there any FA DT's that could fill such a role, or anyone that we could realistically trade for?

Also, what do you see Foxworth's value being if we decide to trade him, which I'd rather do than lose him for nothing next year?

Compliment much appreciated!


*I* think that Okam would be able to have an impact immediately, just like Vince Wilfork and Haloti Ngata did.

I base this on the hearsay, from his teammates and coaches, that he's a workout warrior type with extreme strength, he won a workout warrior award at Texas this year. I already know for a fact that he has the sheer physical mass to start immediately in the NFL. I am concluding that since he is a 4.0 student, that he has the necessary intelligence to learn and implement a scheme/playbook his first training camp and be ready to go. And he's had 4 years of production at Texas, he also obviously works well side-by-side with Tim Crowder.

Regardless of that, I still think we need to acquire a Nose Tackle in free agency, yes. Doesn't have to be a starter, I think Okam can start. Just needs to be a solid player. Its too bad not many are going to be available.


I think Marcus Thomas is a quasi-nose tackle, in the sense that he brings versatiliy in that he can pass rush or run stuff as needed. But he's not ideal at either, just a solid player. So, stick him with a Nose Tackle like Okam, and he can pass rush or they can combine to stuff the run. That's where his value is, and Thomas will be damn good when we can pair him with a true Nose Tackle to allow him that type of flexible play calling and dynamics as a dual threat. McKinley is the exact same type of player. The two of them starting together does nothing, they both need a Nose next to them.


As for FA's, I think Kris Jenkins would be perfection if he's cut. I think Grady Jackson could be a very good stopgap if nothing else is available. I'm also interested in Randy Starks, he's a good player, and can be a Nose Tackle, but he has drug and behavior issues which have plagued him since the draft. Some folks have brought up Isaac Sopoaga from SF. He's definitely a possibilty, but I don't think he's a star. So, in short, No. Not unless Kris Jenkins is released can we get a starting Nose Tackle worth a crap.


We killed Foxworth's value this year. We are using Paymah as our nickel. We had Foxworth as a safety for some of the year, he was ineffective. Foxworth is disgruntled and wants to be traded so he can start at CB somewhere. I think he's a 5th round value right now, probably would have been a 2nd or 3rd last year.

[hardcorebronco]

Well I have always heard since high school, that games are won and lost in the trenches.

So?

This season has really amplified that in its direct relation to wins / losses. Games we have won or blown out our opponents are games we have seen our line blow the other line off of the line of scrimmage. However with our patchwork line on both offense and defense, we cannot seem to get a consistent chemistry that works against all our opponents.

This draft I would have to say I agree with you 100%. There is no way we can expect to draft a linebacker and expect him to do any better than the ones we have right now with the line in front of them that we currently have. We made a step in the right direction last year, I think we have 3 solid Defensive Ends and a good "quasi-nose" tackle in the middle, but without that big boy to pair up with him, we will be consistently inconsistent. Many posters here have been quick to criticize Bailey / Bly for being inconsistent, but with as much zone / run support as they have been asked to do, I can't blame them. We either run zone and get picked apart, or we put our corners in man and stack 8 men in the box. Neither has worked at shutting down the run against good teams.

More experience for Crowder / Dumerville / Moss / Thomas, and get another big DT and I think we will be heading in the right direction.

But back to the original question, I am not sure if I would pass on D.J..... He has been steller in every aspect that we have used him in. Without him this year, we would be off worse off... Losing Wilson and not having Williams... only left with Gold.... I don't know. I completely understand the value of DT's over LB's... But I really like what D.J. has done given the circumstances we have put him in. I'm stuck on that one...

[OKBroncoBoy]

Well I have always heard since high school, that games are won and lost in the trenches.

So?

This season has really amplified that in its direct relation to wins / losses. Games we have won or blown out our opponents are games we have seen our line blow the other line off of the line of scrimmage. However with our patchwork line on both offense and defense, we cannot seem to get a consistent chemistry that works against all our opponents.

This draft I would have to say I agree with you 100%. There is no way we can expect to draft a linebacker and expect him to do any better than the ones we have right now with the line in front of them that we currently have. We made a step in the right direction last year, I think we have 3 solid Defensive Ends and a good "quasi-nose" tackle in the middle, but without that big boy to pair up with him, we will be consistently inconsistent. Many posters here have been quick to criticize Bailey / Bly for being inconsistent, but with as much zone / run support as they have been asked to do, I can't blame them. We either run zone and get picked apart, or we put our corners in man and stack 8 men in the box. Neither has worked at shutting down the run against good teams.

More experience for Crowder / Dumerville / Moss / Thomas, and get another big DT and I think we will be heading in the right direction.

But back to the original question, I am not sure if I would pass on D.J..... He has been steller in every aspect that we have used him in. Without him this year, we would be off worse off... Losing Wilson and not having Williams... only left with Gold.... I don't know. I completely understand the value of DT's over LB's... But I really like what D.J. has done given the circumstances we have put him in. I'm stuck on that one...

I haven't been posting on this board very long, but at this point Mat'hir Uth Gan should screen every post. Without getting into my background, let me just say, although I don't see eye-to-eye on everything he says, he knows what he's talking about. In what few post I've had on this board I keep saying line, line, line over and over again. Thanks for being persistant Mat'hir Uth Gan!

Everyone who keeps talking about WR depth, RB, S and even LB had better take a hard look at the stats this year. I want to have a great, well balanced team like everyone, but it is true: The game is won or lost in the trenches most of the time. Denver BETTER address this in FA, in the draft, through trades or by beg, borrowing or stealing...

[D.J.55]

MUG you really put alot of thought and knowledge into your post and thats what I try and do. I try to use facts every time I post. Also you have made me into a Okam believer. I really think Okam would be great here. I still think Dorsey is the best prospect in this draft. But Okam has more value to us then Dorsey so I wouldnt be surprized if both were still on the board (which I know wouldnt happen because Dorsey's a Top 5 pick) That we would pick Okam over Dorsey.

So do you think if we have a chance at Haynesworth would we take it? Or do you see him as a Marcus Thomas type player?

You also asked a question would we still take D.J. over Wilfork. I still think yes. He's too valueable to this team.

[BroncoAV06]

Off Topic: Are there any sites that review last years draft class after the year? Look at their performances and such?


MUG:
My questions are thus:

1) Do you agree or disagree with the DT v. LB value theories? Would you take Vince Wilfork over DJ Williams today?

I did not have time to read through all your theories(will try). DT are thought to open the games up for the LB's and they always talk about it with Ray Lewis when he was protected by his massive DT and he would wreck havoc. So I think that it is a given that the d-line is very important to a defense's succsess along with the LB.
I think that at this point it is easy to say take Wilfork but DJ is an elite athlete and having a better year then most want to give him credit for. With out him we would be in the same position with the LB (worse off then we are now). He is the love bright spot and a player that you cna build around. He had a great rookie year and I think will be a fine MLB. The list of LB's is big when you look at ones that produce but to have one with the athletic ability of DJ is short. At this point it is time to move on with DJ in mind and how to build a defense around Champ, DJ.

2) Do you agree its remarkable that Coyer heading into 2004 and Bates heading into 2008 have the exact same problem? And that we haven't fixed our problem longterm in 5 years is insanity? Does that tick anyone else off?

Yes this is frustrating. Injuries have hurt was this year. Can't say how much bette we would be with EE and the ability to have anotehr speed guy Moss of the edge.
The scheme that Bates brought in hurt the team IMO. We had to re-tool a whole defensive line. I thought Lang was a solid player along with Warren(could of been more behind that trade) but we were forced to dump players that could have been productive IMO for players that "fit" what Bates wanted to do. I understand that with a new coach you are going to have to bring in players he feels will do good, but at the same time we are in a position where it will take at least another 1-2 years to fully get players that will produce in the scheme Bates want to use. A lot will be on Crowder/Thomas/Moss(less after the injury) to take there games to another level next year to help the line.

3) Do you think we repeat our mistakes of yesteryear and bypass an elite DT for another position yet again, possibly LB again?

Well I don't think we have done it intentionally. When he had problems at CB we drafted 3, line was a problem drafted 2 DE high. That impact player was just not there and the line was in shambles from the get go. As for a LB I think it depends on who is available. LB is a position that IMO you can get a lot out of from the get go. Ryans was a 2nd round pick, Polezney 2nd, Harris, etc.. Talent is there after the first round so I say if a DT is available they have to take a shot at a higher potential guy. So pretty much I guess that there should be no reason not to go after DT unless they are just not high on a player and feel that another position player is better sutied at the spot.


I wrote a blog at the begining of the season on how the d-line will make or break this team. The Denver Broncos organization has to see this if we all do. Not much you can do in the middle of a season after a failed scheme and then trying to piece together a line from FA players. It also comes down to what happens with Nalen, Lynch, and who leaves to have a better idea of what the team will be looking at as high priority positions.

[Ravage!!!]

wow... a thread made by a guy, bragging about himself..... surprising to see it was MUG.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

MUG you really put alot of thought and knowledge into your post and thats what I try and do. I try to use facts every time I post. Also you have made me into a Okam believer. I really think Okam would be great here. I still think Dorsey is the best prospect in this draft. But Okam has more value to us then Dorsey so I wouldnt be surprized if both were still on the board (which I know wouldnt happen because Dorsey's a Top 5 pick) That we would pick Okam over Dorsey.

So do you think if we have a chance at Haynesworth would we take it? Or do you see him as a Marcus Thomas type player?

You also asked a question would we still take D.J. over Wilfork. I still think yes. He's too valueable to this team.

I personally would take Okam over Dorsey because we have Marcus Thomas, and Alvin McKinley already. I think Dorsey is just an improved version of them, but injury prone, and I'm not really sure how much better then Thomas he will be in the end. Okam is a different kind of player and one we sorely need *in my opinion* and of course we know the Broncos generally don't agree with me until 3 years after the fact.


If we can fit Haynesworth under our budget, you definitely have to sign him. But we see that he gets injured, so just having 1 Nose Tackle is not enough, you need at least 2. I'd still draft Okam even if we sign a Kris Jenkins or Haynesworth.


Keep in mind when answering the DJ question several things:

1) That until this season, he was effectively just a guy banished to SAM, while Wilfork has been Pro Bowl calibur since his rookie year.

2) The ease of obtaining another LB, either in FA or the draft. I'm sure we would have picked up another LB along the way.

3) Value v. Value. No matter how good Williams is, if the DT is equal or better....

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Awesome response BroncoAV06. It looks like you were right with your preseason article.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

wow... a thread made by a guy, bragging about himself..... surprising to see it was MUG.

Now Ravage, I was basically prodded into doing this type of review, and I think it's healthy. There will be things I said that were completely wrong, and I look forward to finding them and calling myself on the carpet for them.

Plus, this forum loves to call me a moron, this is my way of defending myself, OR proving their point.

So...you get to look forward to 3 more threads (05, 06, and 07)
Plus, I know you secretly love my work!!!

[JoRo]

I am not ashamed in the least to admit I do. I love all you guys' work you, Dream, Mind. Its really interesting to read how much you guys work on it and stuff. I really missed yours though when you weren't posting as much.

I got a question though:

With Okam, as the looks right now who is above us that would be in the market for him?

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

I am not ashamed in the least to admit I do. I love all you guys' work you, Dream, Mind. Its really interesting to read how much you guys work on it and stuff. I really missed yours though when you weren't posting as much.

I got a question though:

With Okam, as the looks right now who is above us that would be in the market for him?

Well, let's see....

The following teams desperately need a DT or two:

Atlanta Falcons x2
Chicago Bears x2
St. Louis
Cincinatti


The following teams could use youth at the position:

Oakland
Washington
Carolina
Tennessee
Miami



Now, for 1st round purposes and barring any trade downs or trade ups:


OUT OF THE OKAM SWEEPSTAKES:
Miami is out as Okam is not going #1 overall.

Atlanta is out as they need a QB.

St. Louis is out as they already have their Nose Tackle in Carriker, and need a quasi or Under, such as Dorsey or Ellis.

Oakland is likely out too, they'll be picking too high most likely, probably better value at another position.


POSSIBLY IN THE OKAM SWEEPSTAKES:
Tennessee but only if they lose Haynesworth.

Carolina as they need youth, and definitely in and a major threat, if they cut Jenkins for salary purposes. They also need a QB though, so its only a possibility.

Washington could certainly use some DT depth all around.



FULL BORE IN THE OKAM SWEEPSTAKES:
Cincinatti desperately needs run stuffing DTs, though with Peko on board, they would take Ellis or Dorsey first.

Chicago needs a NT badly. I think they are a major threat for Okam. Though, they have ties to Kentwan Balmer, whom is a quasi nose and fits their speed oriented scheme.



I think Chicago and another team trading up would be our most likely competition, we'll be sitting pretty if we choose to go the Okam route in the 15-20 range. And it may be a reach in that range, but he definitely won't last until our 2nd round pick.

[JoRo]

But if Okam turns out as good as you say... he isn't exactly a reach there is he?


ALSO:


Are there any possible players in the draft you would take over Okam if given the choice of anyone at all? Like say by some divine reason one of the guys that are "out of reach" falls to 10 and for some reason we are at 10... who would you want if anyone?


Curious

[Lorcust]

I am not ashamed in the least to admit I do. I love all you guys' work you, Dream, Mind. Its really interesting to read how much you guys work on it and stuff. I really missed yours though when you weren't posting as much.

I got a question though:

With Okam, as the looks right now who is above us that would be in the market for him?

Below is the draft order prior to week 15:

1. Miami (0-13)

They'll either go one of the QB's, Dorsey, Jake Long or Chris Long, I'm pretty sure they won't go McFadden. Okam won't go first overall either...

2. New England (from San Francisco) (3-10)

McFadden would be picked if he fell to them. Belicheck loves versatility, especially on defense, but an offensive player who can do the same only sweetens the deal. Jake Long might be another possible selection.

3. St. Louis (3-10)

They'll be looking to improve the trenches as their skill positions are pretty set. Jake Long should help the O-line and Chris Long should help the D-line. If Dorsey makes it here, he'd be a definate selection.

4. Atlanta (3-10)

They need help all over the place. Dorsey or Chris Long could help the defense. They could use one of the signal callers to reboot their franchise. Jake Long is probably gone by this pick.

5. New York Jets (3-10)

If Chris Long lasts until this pick, he's definately a selection. The Jets could use a lot of help here though, Jake Long maybe, Vernon Gholston if he impresses in pre-draft workouts.

6. Kansas City (4-9)

They'll be looking to improve their DTs and might go Sedrick Ellis, but more likely, their O-line needs some help in the form of improving over McIntosh and rebuilding their O-line.

7. Oakland (4-9)

They could go DeSean Jackson as long as Al Davis keeps busting a nut over his speed, but will probably look to get an impact player like Sedrick Ellis or Calailis Campbell to help the D-line. Too high for Okam.
8. Baltimore (4-9)

I could see several picks here. They could go Laurinaitis to get an heir to Ray Lewis, a QB to lead the franchise or some young cornerback like Malcolm Jenkins (most likely). They have Ngata, they don't need Okam.

9. Cincinnati (5-8)

The Bengals wil definately go defense on this pick, but I doubt it'd be Okam this high. They still might be able to get Sedrick Ellis, James Laurinaitis (likely), maybe Vernon Gholston with Justin Smith on the outs.

10. Carolina (5-8)

Carolina needs a lot of help and none of it can really be too impacted from Okam, even if Kris Jenkins is released. The D-line might go for Gholston to inject life into the pass rush or Sedrick Ellis if he lasts this long. They also might go offense at QB or OL in someone like Sam Baker or Ryan Clady.

11. Chicago (5-8)

They may reach for Okam here, but with the turbulation at QB, its hard to not see them go Andre Woodson, or get someone to protect a free agent acquisition like Ryan Clady or Sam Baker. They still do need at DT opposite Harris, but I'd think they go Free Agency for this need and not first round if they go in the draft.

12. Philadelphia (5-8)

The Eagles are set at Defensive tackle and Defensive end isn't a first round need. They might go for Kenny Phillips here to address their questionable safety play, or offense to help McNabb/Kolb. Someone like DeSean Jackson.

13. Arizona (6-7)

Arizona doesn't need a defensive tackle. They need help in a bunch of other positions though. They might go Runningback to be the heir to James by selecting Mendenhall or Stewart. They might go Kenny Phillips to create a nice combo with Adrian Wilson and some solid depth. They could even add a nice pass rushing stud at DE or OLB like Calailis Campbell or Derrick Harvey. Their offense is pretty solid.

14. New Orleans (6-7)

They're not going to be looking for offense at this juncture and regret not addressing the secondary in the first round last year. Players like Aquib Talib, Reggie Smith, Antoine Cason could be picked here.

15. Houston (6-7)

Houston needs a reliable runningback or secondary player. Their only D-line concern is the DE spot opposite Super Mario so I doubt they go Okam. Travis Johnson really picked up his play and eliminated a need for a DT next to Okoye.

16. Denver (6-7)

We definately need Okam here to help our defense. Good trench play can only help Bly, Bailey, Abdullah and Lynch if he hasn't retired. I think if Lynch isn't back, we could see a FA & Sam Brandon when he is resigned battling it out at that position.

17. Detroit (6-7)

Detroit also needs to address their Secondary more than their DL, even if Shaun Rogers falls out of favor. Their o-line could even use some help here.

18. Washington (6-7)

Due to some late round bloomers in Anthony Montgomery and Kedric Golston next to Cornelius Griffin, they don't need a DE. They might go Reggie Smith here to address an injured and tragic-struck secondary or a DE like Campbell or Derrick Harvey. They might even add another weapon for Campbell in a talented receiver.

19. Tennessee (7-6)

Depending if Haynesworth leaves or not, they may be looking for Okam, but I think with the talented receivers avalable here, they add some help for Vince Young.

20. Buffalo (7-6)

They will probably add some help to the offense for Trent Edwards here in the form of a receiver to compliment Lee Evans, or could go for a corner to compliment McGee. They could use Okam but I doubt they trade up for him.

21. Minnesota (7-6)

Pat Williams is getting old and might need to be replaced soon, but the skill positins like the safety postion and wide receivers could use the most boost right now.

22. Dallas (from Cleveland) (8-5)

With Raitliff resigning Okam becomes needed no longer. They'll be looking for a Wide receiver to keep the offense flowing or a secondary player.

23. Tampa Bay (8-5)

They will also be looking to add some youth to the receiver corp. Okam could be a possibility here though if they want to keep helping the defense get younger.

24. San Diego (8-5)

They would definately be in the market for Okam to be the heir to Jamal Williams, but I'm not sure what they'll do if Okam isn't here. The lack of quality safeties might make them go for an ofensive tackle.

25. Seattle (9-4)

They're probably going for a Runningback to replace Shaun Alexandra. Everthing else is pretty set for them.

26. Pittsburgh (9-4)

Hampton is the set nose tackle, and they're probably looking to bolster their O-line depth anyway. They might go Wide receiver to get their young guy some experience before Ward eventually retires.

27. New York Giants (9-4)

They'll be looking to improve their secondary and linebackers, but their D-line and offense, asides maybe OT, is pretty set. I don't like Eli but its not like they're going to replace him.

28. Jacksonville (9-4)

They'll be looking to add some pass rushing talent here or a wide receiver, but they're stellar DTs don't leave room for Okam.

29. Green Bay (11-2)

They don't have many needs, I guess a young corner to replace the aging ones they have now is the most sensical.

30. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) (11-2)

They could use Okam to anchor their 3-4, but I doubt they could trade high enough to get him. They'll probably settle with the best available wide receiver.

31. Dallas (12-1)

If they don't pick a secondary player earlier, they'll pick one up now, and vice versa for wide receiver.

32. New England (pick forfeited) (13-0)


The teams in bold could likely use Okam, the teams below us don't really need him enough to trade up to get him asides maybe San Diego and the teams above us have far more pressing needs than Nose Tackle, IMO.