The History of MUG and the Draft (2004)

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

^
That's an excellent breakdown and summary. CP to you!

[broncs2bowl]

hey MUG suppose we aquire Kris Jenkins and we are looking at Okam but he doesnt fall to us. So we then take Kenny Philips and take Red Bryant with our other pick.

Jenkins
Phillips
Red Bryant

Do you think Bryant could develop fast enough to help us out, and at least be a quality NT for the future. (only one problem with this, we need a LB too!)

[Lorcust]

hey MUG suppose we aquire Kris Jenkins and we are looking at Okam but he doesnt fall to us. So we then take Kenny Philips and take Red Bryant with our other pick.

Jenkins
Phillips
Red Bryant

Do you think Bryant could develop fast enough to help us out, and at least be a quality NT for the future. (only one problem with this, we need a LB too!)

Lance Briggs baby.

Although I'm content with giving Gold a chance to impress once he's given a D-line that will keep blockers off of him and allow him to make plays. Like Lance Briggs has for him in Chicago. Like Derrick Brooks has in Tampa Bay. Like every good Weakside backer has for him.

If we could get Jenkins in Free Agency, I'd be content with the above.

[JoRo]

How much do you think Jenkins would run us though?

[stnzed]

If the St Louis Rams do pick a DT, you can pretty much bet that you didn't want him anyway....They've been drafting DT's high for years, and they're still looking!

The only one that's been somewhat good is the DE they moved to DT.

Clifton Ryan and Claude Wroten can't even beat out La'Roi Glover.

Btw, with the 49er win yesterday, the Patriots no longer have the 2nd pick at this point......

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

hey MUG suppose we aquire Kris Jenkins and we are looking at Okam but he doesnt fall to us. So we then take Kenny Philips and take Red Bryant with our other pick.

Jenkins
Phillips
Red Bryant

Do you think Bryant could develop fast enough to help us out, and at least be a quality NT for the future. (only one problem with this, we need a LB too!)

Red Bryant is strictly a 2-down run-stuffing NT. He's ideally a 3-4 NT.

Your scenario would work fine. It might even be a better-case scenario then taking Okam in Round 1 because Phillips should be a dynamic star as well at a position of need. I definitely wouldn't complain.

My personal opinion is that Okam is a lock to be a star at NT, which is a harder position to fill with a Pro Bowl calibur player then Free Safety, where Phillips will be a star as well. I also believe the depth in this draft is pretty good to find a playmaking Free Safety in the 4th round. And, Bryant, will likely just be a solid pro player and rotational guy, not a 3 down player.

So, *I* would probably sign Jenkins to start and still draft Okam #1 to develop behind him, maybe even start next to him, though I still like Thomas in that role. And I'd draft a Free Safety in the 4th, after drafting the WILL LB in the 2nd, or vice versa.

But your approach would work, it's just a different theory and allocation of positional value.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

How much do you think Jenkins would run us though?

He's still one of the best NTs when healthy, and he's been healthy this season. I think he's restored his value and he's in his prime years.

He's going to cost a pretty penny, probably a tad less than a Richard Seymour contract. I'd guess a 4 year contract, 6-7 mil annual value, but the first year would be minor with the final year spiking. With bonus, I'd venture the 1st year would cost a mere 2 million. We could do this if we wanted.

[JoRo]

He's still one of the best NTs when healthy, and he's been healthy this season. I think he's restored his value and he's in his prime years.

He's going to cost a pretty penny, probably a tad less than a Richard Seymour contract. I'd guess a 4 year contract, 6-7 mil annual value, but the first year would be minor with the final year spiking. With bonus, I'd venture the 1st year would cost a mere 2 million. We could do this if we wanted.

If he is playing well though and back in his prime why would Carolina let him go?

I'm not trying to poke holes just kinda get this figured out.

[BroncoDefense]

Another advantange to drafting D-line high is that getting D lineman through free agency tends to be more expensive than getting linebackers.

I think this is one of the reasons that NE is so good year in and year out. They manage the cap such that they draft players in positions that demand the most money on the open market and sign FA for the most expensive positions.

On defense, all of the DBs (except Harrison) have been drafted. Many felt that Harrison was injured, getting old and generally near the end of his career, so NE signed him cheap. But all of the corners (Asante Samuel, Randal Gay, Ellis Hobbs, Eugene Wilson, Brandom Merriweather) were drafted...because CB on the FA market are very expensive. Similarly, the entire D-line is drafted (Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Vince Wolfork, Richard Seymore). Once the players get to FA it is very rare that NE even retains its own free agents (exception is Seymore)...like Lawyer Malloy, Ty Law, and now Asante Samuel.

However, note what their LBs look like: Rossevelt Colvin (FA), Junior Seau (FA), Adalius Thomas (FA), Mike Vrabel (FA). The only exception here is Teddy Bruschi who was not drafted by Bellichek. These free agents command money, but they don't command as much as top tier CBs or top tier DLs...they just don't.

It seems much easier (and much more financially viable) to draft high money positions like DT than to try and sign free agents.

I don't think anyone disagrees with MUG that good DT are essential to have a good run D. People are arguing that we should go after LBs instead for two reasons: 1 - they can make a more immediate impact; and 2- despite how bad our DT are, the LBs are worse.

My argument is, even if the LBs are worse, it is much easier to find good, system LBs in FA without breaking the bank, than it is to find good D-lineman. This year, there is no way that Ten lets Haynesworth go. He is the best of the available, and he has only had one good year. Given that Freeney just signed for 30 million guaranteed, Haynesworth will still probably garner something north of 20 million guaranteed. That is a lot to gamble on a FA.

At the same time, there are a lot of potential LBs available in FA that could be good in our system...Karlso Dansby, Carlos Pace, Demarrio Williams, Clark Haggans, Kawika Mitchell, and Micahel Boley (RFA-probably can't get him though). Now, none of these jump out at you and say he is sure fire good fit. These are all reasonably priced FA that might fit well. Remember, nobody wanted Vrabel or Seau either. These players might be well-calculated risks. For a similar risk on the Dline you simply have to pay more money.

Next, they can't make an immediate impact. Yes, I think that's right. But you have to start somewhere. We have not drafted a high DT since Toviessi. We cannot expect a good run D without at least starting to draft. Expensive FA mistakes have plagued us on the interior for too long. It's time to start.

[broncs2bowl]

Red Bryant is strictly a 2-down run-stuffing NT. He's ideally a 3-4 NT.

Your scenario would work fine. It might even be a better-case scenario then taking Okam in Round 1 because Phillips should be a dynamic star as well at a position of need. I definitely wouldn't complain.

My personal opinion is that Okam is a lock to be a star at NT, which is a harder position to fill with a Pro Bowl calibur player then Free Safety, where Phillips will be a star as well. I also believe the depth in this draft is pretty good to find a playmaking Free Safety in the 4th round. And, Bryant, will likely just be a solid pro player and rotational guy, not a 3 down player.

So, *I* would probably sign Jenkins to start and still draft Okam #1 to develop behind him, maybe even start next to him, though I still like Thomas in that role. And I'd draft a Free Safety in the 4th, after drafting the WILL LB in the 2nd, or vice versa.

But your approach would work, it's just a different theory and allocation of positional value.

MUG what if Jenkins does not get released....and I heard rumors of a trade with Car and Den so we send them our second pick for him.

Then its Phillips, Jenkins, Bryant.......we cant get a LB

Maybe pick up Bailey and Demorrio Williams(or Dansby!!!!! but doubt it)

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

If he is playing well though and back in his prime why would Carolina let him go?

I'm not trying to poke holes just kinda get this figured out.

Money. He's in the tail end of his contract and making a ton. He's also missed 2 of 3 seasons due to injury, so the Panthers Front Office might want him to take a pay cut to make up for some of that wasted money. He also is disgruntled and apparently wants out.

That's why I think he may be released.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Another advantange to drafting D-line high is that getting D lineman through free agency tends to be more expensive than getting linebackers.

I think this is one of the reasons that NE is so good year in and year out. They manage the cap such that they draft players in positions that demand the most money on the open market and sign FA for the most expensive positions.

On defense, all of the DBs (except Harrison) have been drafted. Many felt that Harrison was injured, getting old and generally near the end of his career, so NE signed him cheap. But all of the corners (Asante Samuel, Randal Gay, Ellis Hobbs, Eugene Wilson, Brandom Merriweather) were drafted...because CB on the FA market are very expensive. Similarly, the entire D-line is drafted (Ty Warren, Jarvis Green, Vince Wolfork, Richard Seymore). Once the players get to FA it is very rare that NE even retains its own free agents (exception is Seymore)...like Lawyer Malloy, Ty Law, and now Asante Samuel.

However, note what their LBs look like: Rossevelt Colvin (FA), Junior Seau (FA), Adalius Thomas (FA), Mike Vrabel (FA). The only exception here is Teddy Bruschi who was not drafted by Bellichek. These free agents command money, but they don't command as much as top tier CBs or top tier DLs...they just don't.

It seems much easier (and much more financially viable) to draft high money positions like DT than to try and sign free agents.

I don't think anyone disagrees with MUG that good DT are essential to have a good run D. People are arguing that we should go after LBs instead for two reasons: 1 - they can make a more immediate impact; and 2- despite how bad our DT are, the LBs are worse.

My argument is, even if the LBs are worse, it is much easier to find good, system LBs in FA without breaking the bank, than it is to find good D-lineman. This year, there is no way that Ten lets Haynesworth go. He is the best of the available, and he has only had one good year. Given that Freeney just signed for 30 million guaranteed, Haynesworth will still probably garner something north of 20 million guaranteed. That is a lot to gamble on a FA.

At the same time, there are a lot of potential LBs available in FA that could be good in our system...Karlso Dansby, Carlos Pace, Demarrio Williams, Clark Haggans, Kawika Mitchell, and Micahel Boley (RFA-probably can't get him though). Now, none of these jump out at you and say he is sure fire good fit. These are all reasonably priced FA that might fit well. Remember, nobody wanted Vrabel or Seau either. These players might be well-calculated risks. For a similar risk on the Dline you simply have to pay more money.

Next, they can't make an immediate impact. Yes, I think that's right. But you have to start somewhere. We have not drafted a high DT since Toviessi. We cannot expect a good run D without at least starting to draft. Expensive FA mistakes have plagued us on the interior for too long. It's time to start.

Great Post!

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

MUG what if Jenkins does not get released....and I heard rumors of a trade with Car and Den so we send them our second pick for him.

Then its Phillips, Jenkins, Bryant.......we cant get a LB

Maybe pick up Bailey and Demorrio Williams(or Dansby!!!!! but doubt it)

I'm ok with trading a 2nd rounder to Carolina for Jenkins. I doubt Bryant slips to the 4th round though. But nabbing Kenny Phillips (or Nic Harris) and then Jenkins with a trade would be good. We can probably find a good WILL in the 4th round for sure.

[NinjaPirateFunk]

to be fair, just because some players ended up successful on other teams, it doesn't mean they'll end up successful here. a player nine times out of ten is only as good as the players around him and vice versa. sometimes there's just no rhyme or rhythm as to who will do well in one place or another. some teams are suited for certain players. some aren't. wilfork may well have bombed here.

and shanahan maybe made his moves for a reason. i doubt he ignored the defensive line. i get it's popular thinking here but he's not a fourteen year old girl who ignores problems. he's a gm and he's shown to be a good one. i think even we don't notice his methods to building a team. shanahan doesn't do everything in one season. he tries to work on certain positions by year it seems and does as much as he can without forcing it and ultimately achieving nothing because of it. if we concentrated on dline earlier, we probably wouldn't have been able to acquire long term options at other defensive positions. but now we have those positions, and we can concentrate on getting linemen, which we have this last offseason. perhaps he saw a reason to go in that order and not the other. i mean, i won't complain about the talent we have behind the dline short of the declining play of ian gold, and putting a career backup in our sam backer spot. time will tell how that worked out. we could use a DT but not for the reasons people think. to hell with bates system, we need a DT who can crush the pocket, not just stand there. no one runs up the middle on us anyway and that's with the no namers and rookies we have plugging the middle. dj will get better and so will our DTs, those can't get much worse, so i dunno why we just are so stubborn about not collapsing the pocket. all it does it let a qb have all the time he needs against vanilla playcalling.

but like i was saying. moments like we had with the browncos are examples of how shanahan will employ inexpensive options at positions that may have to wait a season or two for an overhaul. too many gms try and fix every single problem in one offseason and fail in every aspect because it's too hard, achieving nothing at all as a result. i think we worked on dline this year, we'll work on it next offseason in a month or two, we'll realize we were spoiled babies and we have to sometimes wait for things, and things should be fine. it's not like we can't pick line talent. we've had guys like pryce, hayward, berry, etc.