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  • The Beat: Off-Season and Draft Outlook

    Hey guys, I finally have my mega update done for the Beat.

    There are some surprises in there, but I put over 5 hours into it today (5,000 words of analysis, etc!) in order to get it up before the weekend.

    I worked really hard on it, so I'd enjoy all comments and critiques. (Please though, "IT SUCKS!" doesn't count!)

    Hope you all enjoy it.

    Thanks for reading, and thanks to all you guys who send PM's and e-mails.

    http://broncosdraft.wordpress.com/

  • #2
    Perfect timing Dream I need something worth reading and as always your stuff is

    Thanks for all the work much appreciated
    Bronco fan from Packer Land.
    Lefty Writer on The Sports Show with Woody Paige and Les Shapiro
    Tweet me @JoRo_5551

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Dream View Post
      Hey guys, I finally have my mega update done for the Beat.

      There are some surprises in there, but I put over 5 hours into it today (5,000 words of analysis, etc!) in order to get it up before the weekend.

      I worked really hard on it, so I'd enjoy all comments and critiques. (Please though, "IT SUCKS!" doesn't count!)

      Hope you all enjoy it.

      Thanks for reading, and thanks to all you guys who send PM's and e-mails.

      http://broncosdraft.wordpress.com/
      You broke it down nicely Dream good work
      McDaniles Career as a failure of a Head Coach is being fulfilled. Termination of McFailure has happen.

      Rejoice Bronco Fans we have taken our team back, but at a heavy cost.

      Comment


      • #4
        Dream I CAN NOT see our draft going like that just because if it did I would cry tears of joy. If it did I would dance in the street naked and scream.

        Seriously that would be a GREAT draft...


        great job though (I finished it now) glad you do all the work you do
        Bronco fan from Packer Land.
        Lefty Writer on The Sports Show with Woody Paige and Les Shapiro
        Tweet me @JoRo_5551

        Comment


        • #5
          I love Xavier Adibi, i'd love it if we could pick him up where you have us getting Wheeler. Both are great talents, and I'd be very pleased with either, though Adibi is my personal preference if he bulks up a bit and has a good combine showing. Also, where you have us taking Hardy I think would be better spent getting Pat Sims. I know he's not the prototypical Slowik DT, but we need someone with great strength and run-stopping ability regardless of what scheme we run. Good mock dude.

          Sorry, you can not add yourself to your own ignore list.

          Comment


          • #6
            That is a really good job. Very strong analysis of the situation and options.

            I didn't entirely agree with the player dispossitions, but that would have been a miracle.

            I like the idea of trading down to pick up another 2nd round pick.

            Given the trades and signings you assume, I would like the draft to go down like this:

            20, Ali Highsmith. I believe this about the right value for him. He is very athletic, strong in coverage, patient against the run. He would fit in as a starter right away at WILL which would allow us to keep DJ at MIKE with Boss Bailey going at SAM.

            44, Gosder Cherilus. He is a big guy, but pretty athletic. He comes from BC which uses a more pro style offense than most schools which should help him transition to the big time.

            52, Earl Bennett. He already has chemistry with Cutler from their time at Vandy. He has average size and speed, but has great hands. I think he would be a great compliment to Marshall and would help open the field.

            I like your late picks a lot. I have heard from a few sources that we have been scouting Chevis Jackson and shown interest in him during the senior bowl week.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by JoRo View Post
              Dream I CAN NOT see our draft going like that just because if it did I would cry tears of joy. If it did I would dance in the street naked and scream.

              Seriously that would be a GREAT draft...


              great job though (I finished it now) glad you do all the work you do
              If you are gonna do what you say you will, I just hope you don't live on my block.

              Comment


              • #8
                It was a well written update and I agree with a vast majority of it. It was a very good read, but here are my critiques (opinions):

                1) I think Ian Gold played well this season. He's a VERY good blitzer when allowed to blitz. I think he fits what Slowik wants to do and will be our starter this season. Infact, I think all our LBs played pretty well. I put everything on the defensive line (rookies) and ineffective scheme. I'm not sure of the situation with Warrick Holdman, but with Webster and Winborn under contract, I think we are solid at both SAM and MIKE in terms of starters and depth. I think if we do go after a LB in Free Agency or the draft, it will be the typical undersized WILL LB and probably later in the draft, though if Adibi or Highsmith are available at our 2nd round choice, that might be too good of value to pass up. I do expect Highsmith to still be there.

                2) I think Chris Williams is going to be drafted by the Bears or Lions at #14 or #15 Overall. Both teams' primary need is at OT, and both teams really need a LT and RT. Both need a RT to start immediately and a LT to groom for aging starters. The Bears prefer medium O-linemen, such as Williams, the Lions seem to have a preference for size, such as Otah. And with Alex Gibbs just being hired by Houston, and their lack of a LT, they'll almost certainly be looking in that direction at 18th Overall, specifically Williams or Sam Baker.

                3) I still maintain that Wheeler is a pure MIKE in the NFL. I think he'll actually be an ILB in the 3-4 defense. He's the prototypical size, along with Beau Bell, that Bill Parcels will be looking to draft. It's also worth noting the 49ers and Jets both need starting ILBs this season to pair with Harris and Willis. Point being, I will not be surprised if Wheeler is gone before we even pick at the top of the 2nd, though I don't currently expect that. I also don't believe in moving DJ Williams to WILL, and with the aforementioned depth we have at MIKE and SAM, I don't really see a need for Wheeler with so many other more glaring needs.

                4) Obviously I would love an Okam selection, but I don't think he fits into our defensive scheme. I wish he did. I also don't believe Marcus Thomas can play the 3 in our likely new scheme. I think Thomas is the Nose along with McKinley. I believe we need to find a pair of penetrating 3 techniques this offseason. Corey Williams would be one. Someone like Trevor Laws would be another though I think we'd have to spend a 2nd rounder on him now. I think Derek Lokey, Okam's partner at Texas, could be a very viable fifth round selection for us. Also, I still think Okam goes before the 4th round, specifically late 2nd or the 3rd. But I am a bit bias there as I think very highly of him.

                5) At this point, I don't think Matt Forte or Tashard Choice get out of the early 3rd round. Infact, I'd almost go so far as to guarantee that. It's even possible that one or both could go in the early/mid 2nd. Obviously, they are behind McFadden, Stewart, Jones, and Mendenhall, whom all should be 1st rounders. But Forte and Choice could be the next two backs off the board. The teams that value speed over inside running will likely rank Jamaal Charles next but he's very raw. Chris Johnson refuses to run between the tackles and, and along with Steve Slaton, is some form of a quasi-RB to be used like Reggie Bush. And I think both Forte, and especially Choice, are much better then Ray Rice and Mike Hart.

                6) Chevis Jackson is a high/mid 2nd round pick for a Cover 2 defense, of which there are many. I personally have him going to the Bills at the top of the 2nd. Perhaps that's a bit high, but he's not going to be available in the 4th round, he'll go in the 2nd. He's just too good and his speed can be masked in a Cover 2.



                Overall though, you demonstrate a very sound mastery of the Denver needs and talent evaluation as usual. I doubt I could have written such an excellent article and summary. So, I invested some time into making a detailed response here with my thoughts. I'm pretty confident with my listed opinions above, though I could certainly see and understand the rebuttal against Ian Gold and our other LBs. So, very confident in points 2-6, less so with point 1, but I still believe it.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Bump
                  Strong breakdown thank you.
                  :logo: :logo: :logo: :logo: :logo:

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I know this sounds lame but I really do like when MUG and Dream talk about stuff between the two in threads as they both have a very good understanding of the draft and prospects it makes the posts very good reads


                    Lame part off.


                    What makes you feel that Wheeler is basically a MLB only MUG? curious, and then with the back situation, who all has needs that bad at back for 6-8 to be off the board between rounds 1 and 2? Curious, that is for anyone to address I just lumped it together I wanna know, I know Houston could use aback and the Seahawks.... and I know other teams MAY want one but donno bout 6 teams taking them that high?
                    Bronco fan from Packer Land.
                    Lefty Writer on The Sports Show with Woody Paige and Les Shapiro
                    Tweet me @JoRo_5551

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      awsome read dream, thats the first ive seen your site, its awsome and ill definitly be going back, you put alot of hard work in that, i appreciate it

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by JoRo View Post
                        I know this sounds lame but I really do like when MUG and Dream talk about stuff between the two in threads as they both have a very good understanding of the draft and prospects it makes the posts very good reads


                        Lame part off.


                        What makes you feel that Wheeler is basically a MLB only MUG? curious, and then with the back situation, who all has needs that bad at back for 6-8 to be off the board between rounds 1 and 2? Curious, that is for anyone to address I just lumped it together I wanna know, I know Houston could use aback and the Seahawks.... and I know other teams MAY want one but donno bout 6 teams taking them that high?
                        Thanks, I enjoy Dream's points of view on things though we differ at times. I definitely respect his opinions.


                        Wheeler wants to be a MIKE. He's almost 250lbs now and his skillset heavily suggests he's a MIKE. He's alot like DJ Williams in that he's not great in coverage, he's excellent at straight line blitzing but not so great off the edge, and he's a great tackler. I believe he's strictly a MIKE and Dream and I have had this discussion for awhile now. He believes he can play outside in the NFL, I don't believe so. He also was much more effective as a MIKE at Georgia Tech from all reports.


                        As for RB team needs...

                        Teams with Primary Needs at RB that could be addressed in the Top 2 Rounds:

                        Atlanta (Dunn is finished)
                        NY Jets (Jones looks ineffective)
                        Denver (Doesn't sound like Henry is the guy)
                        Arizona (Edge is winding down, no depth)
                        Houston (Green might be finished)
                        Seattle (Alexander looks finished)
                        San Diego (No depth behind Tomlinson)


                        Teams that may have Primary Needs at RB and could draft a RB in the Top 2-4 Rounds:

                        Cincinnati (If Rudi has lost a step)
                        New Orleans (If McCallister is not in their future plans)
                        Oakland (If Fargus isn't re-signed)
                        Carolina (If Foster is not resigned, need a big platoon back for Williams)
                        Chicago (If they've given up on Benson)
                        Tampa Bay (If Cadillac's injury is career ending as reported)
                        Dallas (a Speed back to pair with Barber)
                        Pittsburgh (someone more talented then Davenport to pair with Parker)



                        So, in my mind, RBs will be at a premium this draft and could be snatched up faster then folks think.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          [QUOTE=Mat'hir Uth Gan;2092533]Thanks, I enjoy Dream's points of view on things though we differ at times. I definitely respect his opinions.


                          Wheeler wants to be a MIKE. He's almost 250lbs now and his skillset heavily suggests he's a MIKE. He's alot like DJ Williams in that he's not great in coverage, he's excellent at straight line blitzing but not so great off the edge, and he's a great tackler. I believe he's strictly a MIKE and Dream and I have had this discussion for awhile now. He believes he can play outside in the NFL, I don't believe so. He also was much more effective as a MIKE at Georgia Tech from all reports.


                          QUOTE]
                          If Wheeler has gotten that big he wouldn't really fit in our scheme as an outside guy then would he? I mean... we could still draft him and move D.J around again... but? I dunno, everythings still cloudy with our LB situation... I guess if D.J and Gold stay at their current roles we would prolly go elsewhere unless Wheeler has a really good workout wit his speed and such? (but in that case wouldn't he have a shot at shootin into the late first?)

                          What other OLB's do you guys think fit into the current scheme (or what we think the scheme will be) the best? Adibi... but other than that?

                          And on the RB thing...
                          Atlanta (Dunn is finished)-Don't they have Norwood? So they would be looking a bigger back I would think right? or a pounder?

                          NY Jets (Jones looks ineffective)-But are they gonna give up on him after one year? If they do could see them getting a platoon back... which would prolly lead to a smaller speedier back (but they have Washington too?)

                          Denver (Doesn't sound like Henry is the guy)-If we go platoon back... I think we go for a power guy as we have Young, but I could also see us going a complete back like Mendenhall or Stewart... So Choice would be here if we go later I would think right now... or Rice... Mostly I just don't see us going for someone like Jones or Slaton.

                          Arizona (Edge is winding down, no depth)-I could see Stewart going here as they have Whiz who had the Bus in Pit and may see some of Jerome in him, if they keep Edge though I doubt they go back in the first round... Donno who else they would look at?

                          Houston (Green might be finished)-I see Mendenhall here as a legit possibility if they go in the first... but with Kubes I dunno how much they value running backs. As it is if both us and Houston go for a back later I see them as the greatest threat to any of our prospects as our schemes are so similar.

                          Seattle (Alexander looks finished)-It all depends how much they like Morris.... they seemed to be running lots of spread type of stuff late in the year (though it had to do with lack of running backs) They are a kind of wildcard as I could see them going either way, whoever they take though will be a high character guy (read The DRAFT. The GM values character very highly)

                          San Diego (No depth behind Tomlinson)-but depending on what they think of LT they may not go in the first two... It all really depends on how durable they think LT is and if they think they can get a decent backup in the later rounds ALA Turner before.

                          Cincinnati (If Rudi has lost a step)-They drafted a running back last year in the third I think and were high on him before he injured his ACL. I could see them taking a possible pounder to pair or just splitting Johnsons carries up more.

                          New Orleans (If McCallister is not in their future plans)-True

                          Oakland (If Fargus isn't re-signed)-But I could see them taking McFadden if that is the case and he is on the board.

                          Carolina (If Foster is not resigned, need a big platoon back for Williams)-True
                          Chicago (If they've given up on Benson)-They won't, at worst they will split up his carries, he was a GM pick not a coach and he won't be allowed to be cut just yet I think. I may be wrong but that seems to be the case right now.
                          Tampa Bay (If Cadillac's injury is career ending as reported)-I didn't know that, if he is they may just go with Graham and get depth... but I could see them taking one high if they like someone too.
                          Dallas (a Speed back to pair with Barber)-Yep but I don't think that would hurt us (read our thing)
                          Pittsburgh (someone more talented then Davenport to pair with Parker)-True.


                          Just my thoughts. I DO think Backs will be going pretty fast once McFadden is off the board... but I do think there will still be decent backs if we don't go one in the first two rounds
                          Bronco fan from Packer Land.
                          Lefty Writer on The Sports Show with Woody Paige and Les Shapiro
                          Tweet me @JoRo_5551

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Awesome read Dream, great work.

                            Question for you and others.

                            If we do draft Williams or another first round OT, I take it we will surely abandon our policy of never starting our rookie O-Line players? Surely Williams would simply be too good a player to leave learning the system for a year?

                            Furthermore, if we were to leave him out his rookie year then what happens if Harris has a great year at LT? Do we just toss him onto the right side then?

                            Anyway, liking the draft in general.

                            RB, OT or Bust!!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              That's an interesting question and I really haven't thought about it until you mentioned it.

                              Essentially, as you know we have Erik Pears and Ryan Harris at tackle on our roster.

                              Pears is not a right tackle in the NFL. He plays way too high, doesn't have great technique and shows no power on that side of the line. At the very best, he's a serviceable left tackle, but he is not the kind of player you want protecting a guy like Cutler full time. He was beat a lot off the edge last year at right tackle, so putting him at LT would be even more of a concern.

                              The Broncos coaches (from what insider people have said and reporters) really like Ryan Harris, as they should. He's the prototype for a Broncos offensive lineman, has the ability to play either tackle spots or guard - and has good footwork, but needs some technique help. He sat this year to hopefully improve all that, and I guess we'll see in camp.

                              The thing is, Williams is by far more talented than Harris or Pears. I seriously wouldn't know if Williams would start - but it shouldn't be that hard to beat out Harris or Pears. If the Broncos invest a high pick in him, I'd hope they'd give him a chance to start and break that "you sit for one year" deal.

                              What makes this year different is that Harris has no real experience starting in the NFL, and Pears pretty much sucks. I think Harris can be a quality NFL left tackle, but I think he could be a great guard, and probably a good right tackle. We haven't seen him play, so there are just a lot of questionmarks.

                              In all honesty, OT in the first round is probably wishful thinking. Shanahan seemed to be pleased with Pears, and they are high on Harris. However, I had it on good word a few moths ago that Baker and Clady were two guys they were interested in, and that they were looking at offensive tackles hard.

                              I don't know if it'll be a first-round pick, but I expect the Broncos to find a tackle somewhere. They have to. If they don't do it in FA; you know they're going to do it in the draft because there's no way in Hell you go into camp with two OT's, and a guy who can play OT (Kuper) in a pinch on your roster. There's just no way.

                              Harris was a first-round talent after his junior year, but slipped his senior year. I am fairly confident Denver slapped a second round grade on the guy and felt lucky they could get him at #70 back in 2007. He has great potential, but it remains to be seen. Denver's going to have to add a guy somewhere, at least they should. Then again, they've been known to overlook positions and let them suffer. (Safety this past year is one of them, defensive line for about three years prior as well.)

                              Until the rumors start flying and the combine happens, you won't hear good information. Believe me, I ask the select people I've gotten to know over the past few years and they keep saying, "just wait." The one thing that seems to be known right now is that the Broncos want more picks, and that's a good thing.

                              We'll see what they do in FA; we'll hear some combine tidbits and then we'll know.

                              I'm sorry if my answer was ambiguous, but I can't really say. If we drafted Williams and he showed the ability to start right away, HE SHOULD START. Throw Harris in at a guard spot or RT (pending on who comes back, say Hamilton doesn't) and let the youth get experience.

                              Those guys are way more talented than Pears is. Pears just SUCKS.

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