Our 53 Man Roster, The Draft, And You.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

53 Man Roster

I spent some time looking up the Patriots and 49ers recent opening day rosters to try and get a feel for what our coaches and 3-4 teams tend to employ. Both teams tended to carry extra special teams players either at WR or LB. This works well with our likely roster because we have two special teams aces (Darrell Reid and Wesley Woodyard) that can essentially be 5th Outside and Inside Linebackers, respectively.

Regardless, this is how I see our team now, and the BLANK SPACES mean we need to acquire talent to fit that area in the draft or whats left of Free Agency.


OFFENSE

QB (3)
1. Jay Cutler
2. Chris Simms
3.

RB (4)
1. Correll Buckhalter
2. LaMont Jordan
3. JJ Arrington
4. Ryan Torain

FB(1)
1. Peyton Hillis

WR (6)
1. Brandon Marshall
2. Eddie Royal
3. Jabar Gaffney
4. Brandon Stokley
5.
6.

TE(3)
1. Daniel Graham
2. Tony Scheffler
3.

OT(3)
1. Ryan Clady
2. Ryan Harris
3. Tyler Polumbus

OG(3)
1. Chris Kuper
2. Ben Hamilton
3.

OC(2)
1. Casey Wiegmann
2. Kory Lichtensteiger



DEFENSE

DE(4)
1.
2. Marcus Thomas
3. Kenny Peterson
4. Carlton Powell

NT(2)
1. Ron Fields
2.

OLB (4)
1. Elvis Dumervil
2. Jarvis Moss
3.
4. Tim Crowder

ILB (4)
1. DJ Williams
2. Andra Davis
3. Spencer Larson
4.

CB (5)
1. Champ Bailey
2. Andre Goodman
3.
4. Jack Williams
5.

S (4)
1. Brian Dawkins
2. Renaldo Hill
3. Josh Barrett
4.

ST (5)
K: Matt Prater
P: Brett Kern
LS: Lonnie Paxton
Ace: Darrell Reid
Ace: Wesley Woodyard



THE DRAFT

This potential 53 Man Roster has important draft considerations because the talent level of the prospects in the draft can be determined as to where certain positions will need to be drafted.

For Example, I believe we need a starting calibur 3-4 Defensive End. This draft is very weak at that position, you'll likely have to draft a Defensive End in the first 2 Rounds, prospects include (Tyson Jackson, Fili Moala, Jarron Gilbert, and Ziggy Hood) all of which should be gone by the end of Round 2. If I'm making a mock draft, I know that I need to get one of those guys into the first 2 Rounds.

Another example is 3-4 OLB. Dumervil is entering his contract year and does not project exceptionally well to OLB to boot. This is likely his last year, regardless of how he performs, as some 4-3 team will overpay for his services next season. We have to draft his replacement now. On top of that, we don't know how Jarvis Moss or Tim Crowder will take to OLB, so we need help at that position extremely bad. Well, this draft is very top heavy on *starting* calibur OLBs, specifically, 1st Round only. By the time our 2nd Round pick comes there will be no top talent left, the best we could do would be to reach for someone like Lawrence Sidbury Jr or Cody Brown, or reach for a total project player like Connor Barwin. Certain players, barring a trade up, will not be available (Aaron Curry, Brian Orakpo). Some players have a 50/50 chance of being there (Everette Brown, Brian Cushing). And some players WILL be there (Larry English, Clay Mathews, Aaron Maybin, Clint Sintim). I am now of the opinion that we *must* take an OLB/DE type with our 1st Round pick. And since I believe we must take a DE in the first 2 Rounds, now I believe we *must* take a DE with our 2nd Round pick.

In the 3rd Round, I think we have to find a Nose Tackle, specifically Chris Baker or Terrance Taylor come to mind. Baker was a stud at Penn State before transfering this last season to Hamption, where he blew up, but he has some off-the-field concerns that transcend his talent. He might last into the 5th Round, but he has 2nd Round talent. He also has extensive experience at Nose Tackle, though he played DE for most of last year at 330 lbs. He is a very good athlete. Terrance Taylor of Michigan also might be of interest at this point. He is a master of leverage and strength. He was also a 1st Round lock before Michigan tanked this season, and he will be drafted no later then the 3rd Round come draft time. I am not confident that either of these men will still be on the board when the 4th Round starts, and they represent the last of top 2-gap NT prospects (Only BJ Raji and Ron Brace were ahead of them).

And with the 4th Round pick in this area, we need a Cornerback. This is a fairly deep draft for Cornerbacks in terms of *middle round talent* and someone like Kevin Barnes, Bradley Fletcher, Morgan Trent, Mike Mickens, or Keenan Lewis makes sense in the 4th Round. Trent dominated the Combine in almost every drill, but is forgotten because of Michigan tanking this season. Barnes, is a superb CB prospect, that suffered a nasty shoulder injury (Should heal 100%) and will drop more then he should. Without the injury, you're looking at a 2nd Round guy. He does everything well. The other guys all represent solid outside starting talent at this point. The CB talent REALLY, REALLY dries up after the 4th Round.

As for the two 5th Round picks, I think one has to go to Tight End. Scheffler might be traded, and McDaniels prefers blocking Tight Ends that have some catching ability. The one guy I really think we look at here is Anthony Hill. He is a complete Tight End that is going unnoticed and would make one hell of a 5th Round pick. I really think this one, particular player is a lock to us in the 5th Round. With the other 5th Rounder, we have to look at Safety. This is another deep Safety draft, though not top heavy (again), and there will be decent prospects available in the 5th (Otis Wiley, Troy Nolan, Emanuel Cook, Curtis Taylor, etc).

The 6th Round we probably should look at WR. Chad Jackson was cut in New England because he was too dumb to understand the scheme, I think he'll get cut again. This leaves us with 4 WRs. The good news is that WR will be deep in the 6th Round with solid developmental talent. Prospects include Aaron Kelly, Mike Wallace, Marko Mitchell, Deon Butler, Johnny Knox, and a ton more. Should be a good place to pickup a 5th developmental type WR.

The two 7th Rounders can look at a 6th WR, a 4th ILB, a 3rd QB, a 3rd OG, etc... Whatever other positions need filling out.



SUMMARY

With the holes in our current team and not many Free Agent choices remaining to fill them, and assuming we don't draft crazy with massive reaches, we almost have no choice but to draft in the manner detailed above. The main reasons being the prospects at that certain position dry out at a certain Round, its too early to do a massive reach for a prospect, or its too risky to wait and prey the last one or two guys drops another round.

Positional Round Recap
1. 3-4 OLB
2. DE
3. NT
4. CB
5. TE
5. S
6. WR
7. BAP at Need
7. BAP at Need




Thoughts?

[24TheCHAMP24]

Very well thought out.

I would love a draft catch of Everette Brown, Jarron Gilbert, Chris Baker to kick off the first 3 rds

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Very well thought out.

I would love a draft catch of Everette Brown, Jarron Gilbert, Chris Baker to kick off the first 3 rds

That would be best case scenario for sure. I'm not sure that Gilbert will be available though. Nor Brown.

The problem at #12 Overall for us, is Buffalo at #11. San Francisco will have alot of pressure at #10 to take Mark Sanchez or Andre Brown, and either would be good for us. They also are looking hard at Everette Brown. That would obviously be bad.

But Buffalo is the team I'm worried about. I think they'll trade back, which means any player slipping to #11 will get nabbed just before us by another team. And Everette Brown is whom I'm worried about that being. Of course, Buffalo could just stand pat and draft Brown themselves as they need pass rushing help and love undersized DEs. They could also take Cushing to start immediately at SAM, another major need. Regardless of how it works out, a defensive prospect we likely would want at #12 will be snatched away at #11.


Jarron Gilbert is going to be overdrafted due to athleticism. He's the worst fit for a 3-4 DE for us because Nolan uses a two gap system, and he's a pure one-gapper. He might even fit best as a 4-3 strongside end, ala Mario Williams. Meanwhile, I think Fili Moala might be the best fit for us at DE and he will be there in the 2nd Round for sure. He's a 2-gap guy that can play NT in a pinch, and Nolan likes to have that versatility. He also has a lot of experience with that type of position.


Chris Baker will definitely be there in the 3rd for us, and I think Terrance Taylor is equally as promising, so I'm fine with either. Baker's off the field issues aren't as bad as they seem, he got in a fight to help protect a teammate for example, was one of the issues. He'll take some time to develop though, but being able to play multiple positions on a 3-4 line is a great thing. Taylor is a pure 3-4 NT, he'll never play DE in his life. But he'll be able to start at NT in a 3-4 from the day he is drafted, and that would be a good thing for us because Fields is very mediocre. Regardless, I like both guys, but probably Baker a smidgen more to his versatility. He has alot more risk though.



Anyway, best case for the first 3 Rounds:

1. Everette Brown
2. Jarron Gilbert
3. Chris Baker


Worst Case:

1. Larry English
2. Fili Moala
3. Terrance Taylor


Clearly, the best case is superior, but the worst case scenario is pretty damn good itself.

[expatRick]

Having seen all the recent tandems and given Lynch's legal troubles, I think it's entirely possible that the Bills try to trade back knowing they'll get a good RB later in the round. Whoever trades up would do so knowing that the Broncos will take a front 7 defender.

I would be cool with trading up with Jacksonville to have a shot at Brown, who I think will have an immediate impact as a rush LB.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Having seen all the recent tandems and given Lynch's legal troubles, I think it's entirely possible that the Bills try to trade back knowing they'll get a good RB later in the round. Whoever trades up would do so knowing that the Broncos will take a front 7 defender.

I would be cool with trading up with Jacksonville to have a shot at Brown, who I think will have an immediate impact as a rush LB.

My *only* problem with any trade-up scenarios is that looking at our 53 man roster (and the holes therein), I do not believe we have the luxury of trading away selections, especially a pick in the first 3 rounds, which is what a trade up would cost.

If Brown goes, we'll have to choose between Cushing/Mathews, whom could be used like Mike Vrabel, Larry English, or maybe even Aaron Maybin. I really hate the idea of drafting Maybin at #12 Overall though. His boom or bust factor is much too risky for me at that point. However, if he does boom, then you probably have a superstar on your hands.

[expatRick]

Still plenty of FA's to fill the depth chart and ST.

I believe Maybin will be the best defender in the draft but not until 2011. I hate to think the Broncos will place this season in the hands of Moss and Dumervil succeeding at LB. I'm really rooting hard for an early run on OT's and WR, and somebody wanting to develop Sanchez. Every offensive player taken improves the Broncos' chances to get Brown.

[elevation INC]

good write up MUG, but i still belive there are some very underated DE/OLB talents that will become studs.....Wille Vandesteeg/Phillup hunt/Orion Martin/Cody Brown/David Vekiune etc......


I do belive are first 2 picks will be spent on DE and DE/OLB......

i have no problem whatsoever with a tyson jackson/Lawrence sidbury tandem or a Larry english/Filli moala tandem



my thoughts are that english is a very likely possibility. He has shown the ability to add weight and lose weight very quickly....and still keep his athleticism. he is a outstanding pass rusher, with probally the best rip move in the country.....but he also is big and strong enough to lock down the run....his versatility for the 3-4 and 4-3 is a plus as well. he can play at 260 one week, 270 the next and drop back to 255 if need be. he is tailor made for a hybrid defense because of his versatility. and ability to play rush/lb or RDE in the 4-3 look. he also has shown to be one of the more instinctual and hardworking football players....he has superb dedication to success and is not a 1 year wonder.....


there are knocks on him becasue of his senior production but NIU wasnt a great team last year to begin with. 2 years prior he dominated and was all over opposing teams backfield.....



I doubt maybin goes any higher than miami. he had a horrible combine and was 249, the added weight killed his athleticism and speed which means he is a developmental pass rusher in my eyes. he doesnt fit a hybrid and quite frankly he isnt big enough to play a 3-4 effectivly right off the bat...combine 40 times dont mean much but i can tell ya right now his bust factor is greater than his boom factor.....

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

good write up MUG, but i still belive there are some very underated DE/OLB talents that will become studs.....Wille Vandesteeg/Phillup hunt/Orion Martin/Cody Brown/David Vekiune etc......


I do belive are first 2 picks will be spent on DE and DE/OLB......

i have no problem whatsoever with a tyson jackson/Lawrence sidbury tandem or a Larry english/Filli moala tandem



my thoughts are that english is a very likely possibility. He has shown the ability to add weight and lose weight very quickly....and still keep his athleticism. he is a outstanding pass rusher, with probally the best rip move in the country.....but he also is big and strong enough to lock down the run....his versatility for the 3-4 and 4-3 is a plus as well. he can play at 260 one week, 270 the next and drop back to 255 if need be. he is tailor made for a hybrid defense because of his versatility. and ability to play rush/lb or RDE in the 4-3 look. he also has shown to be one of the more instinctual and hardworking football players....he has superb dedication to success and is not a 1 year wonder.....


there are knocks on him becasue of his senior production but NIU wasnt a great team last year to begin with. 2 years prior he dominated and was all over opposing teams backfield.....



I doubt maybin goes any higher than miami. he had a horrible combine and was 249, the added weight killed his athleticism and speed which means he is a developmental pass rusher in my eyes. he doesnt fit a hybrid and quite frankly he isnt big enough to play a 3-4 effectivly right off the bat...combine 40 times dont mean much but i can tell ya right now his bust factor is greater than his boom factor.....

I'm not disagreeing with you on there being some decent developmental OLB/DE talent, because there is throughout the draft. When I look at our team though, I see nothing at OLB. I expect Dumervil to be serviceable, but not great, and I expect him to be overpaid in next year's Free Agency. Moss and Crowder are complete questionmarks. And we have nothing in the woodworks developing. So, I figure we need an instant starter at OLB. And the guys I view as instant starters are most of the guys that will go in the first 47 selections.

Here is my DE/OLB Breakdown: (Run Defense, Pass Rush, Risk 1 - 10, 10 being ungodly risky)

1. Aaron Curry - Run A+, Pass A, Risk = 1
2. Brian Orakpo - Run A, Pass A, Risk = 3
3. Everette Brown - Run B, Pass A+, Risk = 5
4. Brian Cushing - Run A, Pass B, Risk = 3
5. Larry English - Run B, Pass B+, Risk = 7
6. Clay Mathews - Run B, Pass C, Risk = 5
7. Aaron Maybin - Run B, Pass A, Risk = 10
8. Clint Sintim - Run B, Pass C+, Risk = 3

All those guys will be gone when we pick in the 2nd Round, barring a miracle. And you can't rely on miracles. So, then you have talented, but very risky:

9. Lawrence Sidbury Jr - Run C, Pass B+, Risk = 7
10. Connor Barwin - Run C+, Pass B, Risk = 10
11. Cody Brown - Run B, Pass C, Risk = 5
12. David Veikune - Run B, Pass C+, Risk = 7

And most of those guys will likely be gone by the time we pick in the 3rd Round, the rest of the prospects are more likely to fail then succeed. You can't bank on them being any good, and we *must* have someone ready to start for Dumervil next year. And possibly on the other side as well.



I really can't imagine us not taking an OLB in the 1st Round. If we don't, it will be because we are taking Tyson Jackson, whom is great, but top DE talent can be had in the 2nd Round, OLB can not. And I'm not that sure that Tyson Jackson is that much of a better prospect than Fili Moala, whom I think is a lock to be there for us in the 2nd. They are very similar. Or, maybe if someone slips that shouldn't (Raji or Malcolm Jenkins), we don't go OLB, but that's unlikely to happen.

[HorseStance]

Positional Round Recap
1. 3-4 OLB
2. DE
3. NT
4. CB
5. TE
5. S
6. WR
7. BAP at Need
7. BAP at Need


Thoughts?

Great post, i've said this before and i'll probably say it again but i'm sure some of our scouts could gain a lot by coming on these forums and reading some of these threads!

I think i'm pretty much with you for need and round places. In my mock i have Jackson going at twelve but i would happily change that if Brown or Orakpo miraculously become available to us.

I think Cushing or Matthews don't have the same immediate impact that a guy like Orakpo would but i'm sure they would be very good after 1 or 2 years.

I think there is a lot to be said for trading down to the late first and picking up English or Sintim and gaining an extra second in the process but that all depends on some other team wanting to trade up either for a falling QB or one of the better OTs. I think this would be our best case scenario, and failing this OLB and DE in round 1 and 2 would be ideal.

It's obvious that we have a big need at NT and i think Chris Baker does fit this but will need a bit of development time. It's possible he falls to the 4th because of character concerns but there are 2 teams picking before us that are also switching to 3-4 and a couple others that run 3-4 so he could be gone due to necessity. So i think i'm with you for us taking him in the third.. he should definitely be there and we would get a solid NT prospect to groom as the starter for next season.

Anyway CP to you for a very good analysis of the draft prospects vs our teams needs!

[Botan]

Awesome thread. I just have one criticism/comment. Where is Josh Bell? I'd take him over Jack Williams. I think he played well last year, especially considering he was a Rookie UDFA and our defensive coordinator had no idea what he was doing.

I dunno, maybe im the only one on his bandwagon, but I think he could be a solid guy for us. I see us drafting maybe 1 more corner.

[elevation INC]

I'm not disagreeing with you on there being some decent developmental OLB/DE talent, because there is throughout the draft. When I look at our team though, I see nothing at OLB. I expect Dumervil to be serviceable, but not great, and I expect him to be overpaid in next year's Free Agency. Moss and Crowder are complete questionmarks. And we have nothing in the woodworks developing. So, I figure we need an instant starter at OLB. And the guys I view as instant starters are most of the guys that will go in the first 47 selections.

Here is my DE/OLB Breakdown: (Run Defense, Pass Rush, Risk 1 - 10, 10 being ungodly risky)

1. Aaron Curry - Run A+, Pass A, Risk = 1
2. Brian Orakpo - Run A, Pass A, Risk = 3
3. Everette Brown - Run B, Pass A+, Risk = 5
4. Brian Cushing - Run A, Pass B, Risk = 3
5. Larry English - Run B, Pass B+, Risk = 7
6. Clay Mathews - Run B, Pass C, Risk = 5
7. Aaron Maybin - Run B, Pass A, Risk = 10
8. Clint Sintim - Run B, Pass C+, Risk = 3

All those guys will be gone when we pick in the 2nd Round, barring a miracle. And you can't rely on miracles. So, then you have talented, but very risky:

9. Lawrence Sidbury Jr - Run C, Pass B+, Risk = 7
10. Connor Barwin - Run C+, Pass B, Risk = 10
11. Cody Brown - Run B, Pass C, Risk = 5
12. David Veikune - Run B, Pass C+, Risk = 7

And most of those guys will likely be gone by the time we pick in the 3rd Round, the rest of the prospects are more likely to fail then succeed. You can't bank on them being any good, and we *must* have someone ready to start for Dumervil next year. And possibly on the other side as well.



I really can't imagine us not taking an OLB in the 1st Round. If we don't, it will be because we are taking Tyson Jackson, whom is great, but top DE talent can be had in the 2nd Round, OLB can not. And I'm not that sure that Tyson Jackson is that much of a better prospect than Fili Moala, whom I think is a lock to be there for us in the 2nd. They are very similar. Or, maybe if someone slips that shouldn't (Raji or Malcolm Jenkins), we don't go OLB, but that's unlikely to happen.

good breakdown....and i think you and i are on the same page anyways in terms of what our first 2 rds should target for prospects position wise.....

however on a side note i do not want jarron gilbert on this team for DE...evander hood and alex magee make more sense to me than gilbert. he should be used as a pass rusher UT for the 4-3 his skills belong in that role. i do not think he is good enough agaisnt the run to warrant 3-4 DE consideration.....


I really do think we can get 1 DE/OLB and be set. While crowder/Moss/And dumervil are wildcards all 3 were being seriously looked as as very good 3-4 prospects before they came into the nfl.....also i think a wildcard here is mario hagan and darrell reid both of whom will get looked at for the role....now while none of these guys lights any hope.... its not unrealistic to think we could end up being very suprised.....

as for NT i like baker and if he is gone i actually like dorrell scott. who was avg 50 tackles and 4 sacks the 2 years prior to his senior year. i think scott/Taylor/Baker all make good sense for this team in the 3rd rd.

i guess what i am arguing is that i still belive there will be good DE/OLB talent in rd 2 if we decide to go with tyson jackson which is a very high possibility depsite some mebers of this board feeling otherwise.....

[Broncos Bassist]

.

I really do think we can get 1 DE/OLB and be set. While crowder/Moss/And dumervil are wildcards all 3 were being seriously looked as as very good 3-4 prospects before they came into the nfl.....also i think a wildcard here is mario hagan and darrell reid both of whom will get looked at for the role....now while none of these guys lights any hope.... its not unrealistic to think we could end up being very suprised.....

Elevation & MUG, Are any of the OLB prospects not a liability in coverage? Not only are our 3 top prospects to fill that position not proven as a stand-up pass rusher and run stopper, they're unproven dropping into coverage against the TE, right? I'm assuming that Moss, Crowder, and Doom have at least practiced dropping into zone coverage in some zone blitz packages. With the 3-4, don't you need at least one of your OLB to be able to help out in pass coverage? Otherwise you're basically a 5-man line with 2 linebackers. Where do we stand in that regard? All this 3-4 stuff is still new to me.

Great thread and analysis, by the way. I love it when I log in here and find intelligent conversation instead of bizarre arguments about whether Maualuga is a stud or dud. The way I see it, whatever he is, it's not a down lineman or OLB, which is really what we should be looking at in round 1.

[broncofansd]

I have to give you props for making a Excellent Post. Job well done.

[Mat'hir Uth Gan]

Awesome thread. I just have one criticism/comment. Where is Josh Bell? I'd take him over Jack Williams. I think he played well last year, especially considering he was a Rookie UDFA and our defensive coordinator had no idea what he was doing.

I dunno, maybe im the only one on his bandwagon, but I think he could be a solid guy for us. I see us drafting maybe 1 more corner.

I actually had Josh Bell penciled in as the 5th CB, but I didn't want to presume he'd be kept. I was in the same boat with Lichtensteiger, Crowder, and Powell, but since they were relatively high draft picks, I kept them on the team.

If you want, feel free to think of Josh Bell as the 5th CB, I think that's highly possible because he did play fairly well.

[elevation INC]

Elevation & MUG, Are any of the OLB prospects not a liability in coverage? Not only are our 3 top prospects to fill that position not proven as a stand-up pass rusher and run stopper, they're unproven dropping into coverage against the TE, right? I'm assuming that Moss, Crowder, and Doom have at least practiced dropping into zone coverage in some zone blitz packages. With the 3-4, don't you need at least one of your OLB to be able to help out in pass coverage? Otherwise you're basically a 5-man line with 2 linebackers. Where do we stand in that regard? All this 3-4 stuff is still new to me.

Great thread and analysis, by the way. I love it when I log in here and find intelligent conversation instead of bizarre arguments about whether Maualuga is a stud or dud. The way I see it, whatever he is, it's not a down lineman or OLB, which is really what we should be looking at in round 1.

Elvis will probally not do well in coverage at all....he is a pass rusher its what he does best. if he can pass rush standing up...he should work as a 3rd down pass rush specialist. Moss and crowder both did well at the combine and LB position drills, so they could be factors(But there are huge wildcards at this point)....crowder had a outstanding combine but his character concerns is what dropped him.....i personally think crowder will do quite well at DE/OLB but thats my personal opinion. I still belive Moss is to raw to sucede right away and will probally be with another team after next year. the right coaching could make him a stud but i think he sat in the wrong scheme for 3 years wasting his time. he in my opinion will be a force in the 3-4 at some point it just wont be with us after next year or in the long future.....

if dumervil doesnt work well because of his coverage abilities he will walk in FA to a team that overpays for his pass rushing skills.....

I really do belive crowder will stick here as a DE/OLB and that haggan will factor depthwise as well..... just my personal opinion though.....


as for in the draft. i belive.....

okrapo/brown/sintim/cushing/english/matthews/sidbury/veikune..... show the abilites to be a force right away...as Mug said some of the others like barwin/cody brown/maybin have huge boom or bust concerns and are developmental guys....they are very raw in terms of Lb coverage and otehr aspects. they do excel at pass rushing though.....