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  • Question for the draft guru's

    Admittedly I am a rookie when it comes to knowing college football players. I have spent the last 9 years coaching youth football, so I have missed a LOT of college football games. With that background....here's my question.


    I have read a lot of posts where people are wanting Fairley, Dareus, or other players with our first round pick. I certainly realize that our biggest need is defensive line players. We can't stop the run, and unless Doom returns at peak form, our pass rush might not be where we need it to be either.

    Now, multiple questions.

    1) If we remain in a 3-4 defense, is Fairley, or one of the others truly a 2nd overall pick in the 1st round? I know Suh, Orakpo and some others have been in the past, but are any of these guys at that kind of level? Would we grade them that high?

    2) If they aren't graded that high in a 3-4 defense, would we be reaching to pick them that high (giving more value for less talent)?

    3) Could we get better value by trading down and picking 2-3 solid D-line prospects, or would that even be necessary to acquire them?

    4) If Champ is gone by then, and Cox is dealing with legal issues, is Peterson a legit once in a decade or elite player who could either play Cb or S for us?

    5) "IF" we keep our #2 overall pick, which defensive player in the draft gives us the best value for that pick?

    As I said, I am no expert. Most of what little I know has been learned by reading posts from many of you who share your knowledge on here.
    I have seen questions as to whether Fairley is actually a beast like many believe. Some say he doesn't play against elite talent, he has only had one great standout year, and he gets too many stupid penalties. These are all things I have read on here, so I am going solely on hearsay.

    Pretty much the consensus or majority opinion seems to be that he is the best D-lineman in the draft though. There are a few who have other opinions, but just based on what I read they are out numbered.

    So I suppose my real question would be, is Fairley a true #2 prospect or would he go much lower in another year's draft? Is he close to the same talent level as a Suh or Orakpo? Would he grade out to be top talent in ANY year's draft, or is it just that he is the best in this particular year?

    I want what's best for our team. I want true talent that is equal to the pick we use on them. If we draft SOLELY on need, even when the talent does NOT equal the pick used, then I feel we are messing up.

    I would be fine with drafting Fairley, Peterson, Dareus, or whoever with the number 2 pick, IF they are worth it. If not? Then let's trade down and get extra players who will fill more holes for us even if they are of slightly lesser talent. Thats my two cents, but I'm certainly open to ideas, beliefs, or opinions.....as I said, Some of you have probably forgotten more than I ever knew about this year's draft prospects. Go Broncos

  • #2
    no one wanna take a stab at answering my questions? I'm seriously curious here.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by knoxman36and2 View Post
      Admittedly I am a rookie when it comes to knowing college football players. I have spent the last 9 years coaching youth football, so I have missed a LOT of college football games. With that background....here's my question.


      I have read a lot of posts where people are wanting Fairley, Dareus, or other players with our first round pick. I certainly realize that our biggest need is defensive line players. We can't stop the run, and unless Doom returns at peak form, our pass rush might not be where we need it to be either.

      Now, multiple questions.

      1) If we remain in a 3-4 defense, is Fairley, or one of the others truly a 2nd overall pick in the 1st round? I know Suh, Orakpo and some others have been in the past, but are any of these guys at that kind of level? Would we grade them that high?

      2) If they aren't graded that high in a 3-4 defense, would we be reaching to pick them that high (giving more value for less talent)?

      3) Could we get better value by trading down and picking 2-3 solid D-line prospects, or would that even be necessary to acquire them?

      4) If Champ is gone by then, and Cox is dealing with legal issues, is Peterson a legit once in a decade or elite player who could either play Cb or S for us?

      5) "IF" we keep our #2 overall pick, which defensive player in the draft gives us the best value for that pick?

      As I said, I am no expert. Most of what little I know has been learned by reading posts from many of you who share your knowledge on here.
      I have seen questions as to whether Fairley is actually a beast like many believe. Some say he doesn't play against elite talent, he has only had one great standout year, and he gets too many stupid penalties. These are all things I have read on here, so I am going solely on hearsay.

      Pretty much the consensus or majority opinion seems to be that he is the best D-lineman in the draft though. There are a few who have other opinions, but just based on what I read they are out numbered.

      So I suppose my real question would be, is Fairley a true #2 prospect or would he go much lower in another year's draft? Is he close to the same talent level as a Suh or Orakpo? Would he grade out to be top talent in ANY year's draft, or is it just that he is the best in this particular year?

      I want what's best for our team. I want true talent that is equal to the pick we use on them. If we draft SOLELY on need, even when the talent does NOT equal the pick used, then I feel we are messing up.

      I would be fine with drafting Fairley, Peterson, Dareus, or whoever with the number 2 pick, IF they are worth it. If not? Then let's trade down and get extra players who will fill more holes for us even if they are of slightly lesser talent. Thats my two cents, but I'm certainly open to ideas, beliefs, or opinions.....as I said, Some of you have probably forgotten more than I ever knew about this year's draft prospects. Go Broncos

      My answers and opinions:

      1) With a likely rookie salary cap to be in place by signing time, it changes the dynamics a bit to where you no longer have to take a premium position in the Top 5 just to justify the cost. Now, 34 DEs, for example, make much more sense if it's a dire team need. I think the new salary cap will refocus the draft on BPA at a position of need. Also, I think it will make teams more likely to gamble on a QB early if the financial risk is no longer astronomical. So, with that said, I think Fairley is in the same ballpark as Suh. I think JJ Watt is in the same ballpark as Mario Williams. I'm less convinced about Dareus (whom only shows up in bowl games), and I'm not sold on Bowers yet either. Regardless, I could see a D-lineman from this draft taken at #2. Our need is dire, the rare talent level is there, and the cost won't be prohibitive.


      2) No, see above. I believe Watt is better than Fairley, and I think both are legit Top 5 talents in almost any draft. Both have a ton of value in any defensive scheme.


      3) Absolutely, always. We would need a trade partner though. However, this draft has the potential to be one of the best D-line drafts in history, and CB looks pretty deep as well. Usually I prefer the stud player to two solid ones, but with our defense so lackluster and this draft so deep, I think it would be a good decision this year.


      4) Peterson is probably a bit overhyped right now, but he's obviously really good. We need to see his workout numbers and get some tape breakdown on him by Mayock. I'm really interested to hear his opinion. Still, if Bailey is gone and Cox is jailed, we need an instant starter at CB and some depth. Free Agency could bring that, it doesn't have to be the draft. Yet, if Peterson lives up to the hype, he could be a solid selection and his size would suggest he could play any secondary position.


      5) As mentioned earlier, with a rookie salary cap, I don't think value really plays in as much as it has. Without a cap, probably a star CB is more cost effective than a star 34 DE. With a cap though, I think star talent level being equal, a team's individual most needs dictate the best value. I see equal top value in a CB or a D-lineman, but only if both Cox and Bailey are gone, otherwise, the D-lineman reigns supreme for me.

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      • #4
        Good to see you're back and posting

        Any chance on knowing when some of your end of season mock drafts are gonna start rolling out? They're always great to read.

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        • #5
          Just a question MUG, how do you see the draft playing out?

          Do you have us taking Watt or Fairley @ 2?

          Where do you see Watt falling to if we don't take him? Is it feasible to say that whoever we don't take, Buffalo takes?
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          • #6
            Originally posted by Hoserman117 View Post
            Good to see you're back and posting

            Any chance on knowing when some of your end of season mock drafts are gonna start rolling out? They're always great to read.

            Not back quite yet, too much going on. This thread caught my eye with the title. I had a mock draft done, but so much changes based on what Luck does, that I'll wait until the 15th to post it.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Lukic View Post
              Just a question MUG, how do you see the draft playing out?

              Do you have us taking Watt or Fairley @ 2?

              Where do you see Watt falling to if we don't take him? Is it feasible to say that whoever we don't take, Buffalo takes?

              Well, if Luck comes out, I'll have us taking Fairley. If Luck doesn't come out, I'll have Carolina taking Luck and us taking Watt. Patrick Peterson is in play as well, I just don't know if he's as good as the hype.

              I'll probably have Buffalo taking Watt. Cincy could take Watt over Bowers. Cleveland could take Watt for their line. Detroit could look at him with Van Den Bosch's neck surgery. Dallas. Minnesota to replace Ray Edwards. I think Watt goes extremely high. I'll put him in the Top 5 because I evaluate him to that level. More likely, he goes Top 10-15. A lot depends on how teams value him in comparison to Bowers and Dareus. Robert Quinn plays into this as well because he might be the only Top 10 34 OLB prospect. Kerrigan is in there somewhere, but I think Miller is too small to go that high. If Quinn or Kerrigan can sneak in the Top 10 to a team like Arizona, that could push Watt down.

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              • #8
                I definitely appreciate the input Mug. I hadn't considered the rookie salary cap and the effect it would have on value.

                It sounds like we should wind up with either Fairley or Watt if Denver grades them close to what you do.

                I will be happy with whoever they draft simply because ignorance is bliss..lol.

                We definitely need some help in our front seven though.

                One other question.

                Who is the best inside LB in the draft this year and are any of them close to an Al Wilson type in their play and intensity?

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                • #9
                  If Denver takes JJ Watt at 2 overall, then we'll need to get a new drafting crew immediately
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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by knoxman36and2 View Post
                    I definitely appreciate the input Mug. I hadn't considered the rookie salary cap and the effect it would have on value.

                    It sounds like we should wind up with either Fairley or Watt if Denver grades them close to what you do.

                    I will be happy with whoever they draft simply because ignorance is bliss..lol.

                    We definitely need some help in our front seven though.

                    One other question.

                    Who is the best inside LB in the draft this year and are any of them close to an Al Wilson type in their play and intensity?

                    I haven't spent a lot of time on ILB. I like Greg Jones, he's pretty obvious though. Martez Wilson might be the best ILB prospect if he comes out. There are quite a few impact ILB possibilities. Mason Foster, Akeem Ayers, and Mark Herzlich all could potentially play inside, though their athleticism should keep them outside. But, if you're talking Al Wilson, I'd go with Greg Jones. He won't have the elite physical skills or size, but he's a fiery leader and massively productive. He reminds me of Rey Lewis in some ways, but he's not going to be as physically dominating.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by JaysusCutler View Post
                      If Denver takes JJ Watt at 2 overall, then we'll need to get a new drafting crew immediately
                      Too soon for this. Give the process some time. Last year at this time most people thought Jimmy Clausen was the #1 selection. Some were saying Tyson Alualu might not be drafted. A few years ago around this time, there were debates as to whether BJ Raji was even a first day guy, let alone a Top 10 selection.

                      Watt will go that high, and he is that talented. The hype will come as the draft gets closer and more people can review his game tapes.

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                      • #12
                        where does it look like he will fall in the draft, and is there a chance he could fall to us?....keep in mind I am like Sergeant Schultz when it comes to college players...I know Nothink...lol

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by knoxman36and2 View Post
                          where does it look like he will fall in the draft, and is there a chance he could fall to us?....keep in mind I am like Sergeant Schultz when it comes to college players...I know Nothink...lol
                          Maybe if Martez Wilson declares, but that's only if ILB is not a major need for a team late in the first. I wouldn't say it's too likely though. I personally hope Cameron Heyward falls to us in the 2nd and we get Fairley/Watt in the 1st(I prefer Fairley but as MUG mentioned Watt is great too).
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                          • #14
                            Maybe we could swing a deal with the PATS:

                            NE has OAK's 1st (17th pick), their own 1st plus CAR's 2nd (33rd). What if we could trade them the #2 pick (we can only hope they want Bowers-Peterson-Fairley or something that bad)....

                            We then swing Orton for a 2nd or 3rd.

                            Right there, we would have 2 first round picks, 3 second rounders, a third plus another 2/3 we manage to procur in any Orton trade?

                            7 selections in the first 3 rounds (including 4 of the first 30-something picks)! We could use the talent and depth for our roster.

                            I can dream, right?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Mat'hir Uth Gan View Post
                              Well, if Luck comes out, I'll have us taking Fairley. If Luck doesn't come out, I'll have Carolina taking Luck and us taking Watt. Patrick Peterson is in play as well, I just don't know if he's as good as the hype.

                              I'll probably have Buffalo taking Watt. Cincy could take Watt over Bowers. Cleveland could take Watt for their line. Detroit could look at him with Van Den Bosch's neck surgery. Dallas. Minnesota to replace Ray Edwards. I think Watt goes extremely high. I'll put him in the Top 5 because I evaluate him to that level. More likely, he goes Top 10-15. A lot depends on how teams value him in comparison to Bowers and Dareus. Robert Quinn plays into this as well because he might be the only Top 10 34 OLB prospect. Kerrigan is in there somewhere, but I think Miller is too small to go that high. If Quinn or Kerrigan can sneak in the Top 10 to a team like Arizona, that could push Watt down.
                              MUG, I know you like Watt, but let's get real here, thereis absolutley NO WAY he goes No. 2 overall under any circumstances.

                              Luck will come out, and Fairley will be the Broncos pick.

                              Luck is thew clear cut No 1 player in the draft, but Fairley is No. 2, and it's not close.

                              Fairley will be the pick unless Denver trades down, period.

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