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Another poster brought up something interesting that really got me thinking about our RB situation. Consider this: The only team that really needs a running back desperately is Miami. A lot of mocks have Ingram going to the Dolphins, but if they passed on him, he could definitely slide to us in the second round. The question then becomes: do you take him? I'd say absolutely not.
I'm completely against taking a running back in the first round, unless the guy is an Adrian Peterson-type talent, there's just no value in taking a RB that high when you can get the same player 3 or 4 rounds later. Even in the 2nd round, we just have too many needs to pass on a talented difference-maker on defense for a back-up RB. Every year RB is the one position that you can find guys who go in the 4th round to undrafted range that have just as big a impact as 1st rounders. Look at some of the top backs from last year:
Arian Foster: Undrafted
Jamaal Charles: 3rd Round
Michael Turner: 5th Round
Frank Gore: 3rd Round
Legarette Blount: Undrafted
Ahmad Bradshaw: 7th Round
Ryan Torain: 5th Round
Peyton Hillis: 7th Round
Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead- Undrafted
Chris Ivory: Undrafted
James Starks: 6th Round
Both Chris Ivory and Legarette Blount were undrafted in 2010 and they both had better seasons than 2010 1st round picks CJ Spiller and Ryan Mattews. Arian Foster was undrafted in 2009 and out-rushed both Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.
Still, I think we definitely have a need at RB. Moreno is injury prone, and even when healthy, he needs a more powerful back to complement his game. Mark Ingram is actually is a very similar runner to Moreno, so he wouldn't be a great choice as a complement; but even if he was, he's still not worth taking in the 2nd round, when only like 5 or 6 players on our defense our legitimate starting NFL talent. You can't find a DT, LB, or S as easily as you can find a RB, so no matter what RB is available in the 2nd round it's a waste of a pick to take one.
Currently there's talk of us targeting guys like DeMarco Murrary or Kendall Hunter in the 3rd round. Again, its nothing personal against those guys, but it's just not worth it. How much of an impact a backup RB can have on a team is certainly open to debate; but the difference in the caliber of RB you're getting in the 3rd round, to one you get in the 6th or 7th is almost non-existent. James Starks was touted as a 2nd round pick until he got injured in his final season at Buffalo. He then slid to the 6th round! It wasn't like it was a career ending injury either, it was a shoulder injury, and he had already completed rehab before the April Draft. He was still the same 2nd-round talent, he just wasn't as fresh in team's minds. More often than not, the RB's going in the 6th or 7th round are guys that suffered injuries in their final collegiate season, or they are lesser-known players from smaller schools than the RB's from Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
One of my favorite players in the draft this year is in a situation similar to James Starks. Dion Lewis, an insanely talented back out of Pittsburgh, was considered a top 5 candidate for the Heisman coming into this year after his 2009 freshman campaign. Lewis ran for 1800 yards in his freshman season at Pitt, earning both Big East Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year awards (first to win POY as a freshman since Vick). His 2010 campaign was hampered by an injury and horrible quarterback play that allowed defenses to load up the box with 8 guys nearly every play. Still, he managed to come away with 1,000 yards. He has tremendous vision and elusiveness, and the cuts he makes have garnered comparisons to Barry Sanders. Even though he's only 5'7", he loves to run between the tackles, where his size actually works to his advantage because defenders often lose sight of him in the trenches. If you're thinking his height is a question mark, consider that MJD is 5'7", Ray Rice and Barry Sanders are 5'8", and Ahmad Bradshaw is 5'9"; so it's not unheard of for small backs like this to be successful. He's one of those guys that doesn't have great measurables, but if you just watch the tape you know he's going to be a star. Because he's such a small back, he'll likely slide to the end of the draft, but I could legitimately see him setting the league on fire in a year or two. For more info on one of my favorite players in the draft including some game tape, check out this profile I wrote on Lewis.
John Clay out of Wisconsin is also in a similar situation to James Starks. He rushed for 1,500 yards in 2009, and won Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Clay, a dominant, bruising runner, with deceptive speed suffered an ankle injury in 2010 that cut his yards down to just over 1,000. However, Clay's yards per carry actually improved in 2010, and if he would have stayed healthy he likely would have ran for more yards than he did in 2009.
Here are some highlights of Clay.
Because of health concerns, Clay might not even get drafted, but I'd so much rather have him in the 7th round then a guy like Kendall Hunter in the 3rd. Clay would be an excellent goal-line back, and a guy that we could rely on when we needed tough yards. He could really soften up defenses for Moreno, and also close out games when Knowshon is fatigued. Clay never fumbled ONCE in his entire Wisconsin career, and with Moreno's difficulties holding on to the ball, a reliable runner like that would be a welcome addition to our backfield.
Instead of Kendal Hunter or DeMarco Murrary, that 3rd round pick could be spent on a legitimate defensive starter like Greg Jones or Ahmad Black, or on a position of real need like TE. Luke Stocker and Lance Kendricks are both intriguing prospects that will likely be there in the 3rd round. We could also target a T or G there depending on what our plans with Harris are.
Aside from my personal favorites of Lewis and Clay there are other guys that will likely go in he 6th round or later that could have a big impact. Taiwan Jones from Eastern Washington is a guy that many people have probably never heard of. He has a similar skill set to Lewis, but is a little bigger of back. Da'Rel Scott from Maryland is another guy who I really liked before the combine because of his blazing straight-line speed. But his 40 time has likely risen his draft stock too high to warrant taking him. At 6'0", 230 Jamie Harper out of Clemson is another bruising, power back we could target. There are plenty of RB's we can draft that can be just as effective as the top guys in the class, but that we can get 3-5 rounds later. As far as I'm concerned, with the current draft picks that we have, and the glaring holes in our defense, taking a RB higher than round 6 is a waste of a pick.
I'm completely against taking a running back in the first round, unless the guy is an Adrian Peterson-type talent, there's just no value in taking a RB that high when you can get the same player 3 or 4 rounds later. Even in the 2nd round, we just have too many needs to pass on a talented difference-maker on defense for a back-up RB. Every year RB is the one position that you can find guys who go in the 4th round to undrafted range that have just as big a impact as 1st rounders. Look at some of the top backs from last year:
Arian Foster: Undrafted
Jamaal Charles: 3rd Round
Michael Turner: 5th Round
Frank Gore: 3rd Round
Legarette Blount: Undrafted
Ahmad Bradshaw: 7th Round
Ryan Torain: 5th Round
Peyton Hillis: 7th Round
Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead- Undrafted
Chris Ivory: Undrafted
James Starks: 6th Round
Both Chris Ivory and Legarette Blount were undrafted in 2010 and they both had better seasons than 2010 1st round picks CJ Spiller and Ryan Mattews. Arian Foster was undrafted in 2009 and out-rushed both Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson.
Still, I think we definitely have a need at RB. Moreno is injury prone, and even when healthy, he needs a more powerful back to complement his game. Mark Ingram is actually is a very similar runner to Moreno, so he wouldn't be a great choice as a complement; but even if he was, he's still not worth taking in the 2nd round, when only like 5 or 6 players on our defense our legitimate starting NFL talent. You can't find a DT, LB, or S as easily as you can find a RB, so no matter what RB is available in the 2nd round it's a waste of a pick to take one.
Currently there's talk of us targeting guys like DeMarco Murrary or Kendall Hunter in the 3rd round. Again, its nothing personal against those guys, but it's just not worth it. How much of an impact a backup RB can have on a team is certainly open to debate; but the difference in the caliber of RB you're getting in the 3rd round, to one you get in the 6th or 7th is almost non-existent. James Starks was touted as a 2nd round pick until he got injured in his final season at Buffalo. He then slid to the 6th round! It wasn't like it was a career ending injury either, it was a shoulder injury, and he had already completed rehab before the April Draft. He was still the same 2nd-round talent, he just wasn't as fresh in team's minds. More often than not, the RB's going in the 6th or 7th round are guys that suffered injuries in their final collegiate season, or they are lesser-known players from smaller schools than the RB's from Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
One of my favorite players in the draft this year is in a situation similar to James Starks. Dion Lewis, an insanely talented back out of Pittsburgh, was considered a top 5 candidate for the Heisman coming into this year after his 2009 freshman campaign. Lewis ran for 1800 yards in his freshman season at Pitt, earning both Big East Freshman of the Year and Player of the Year awards (first to win POY as a freshman since Vick). His 2010 campaign was hampered by an injury and horrible quarterback play that allowed defenses to load up the box with 8 guys nearly every play. Still, he managed to come away with 1,000 yards. He has tremendous vision and elusiveness, and the cuts he makes have garnered comparisons to Barry Sanders. Even though he's only 5'7", he loves to run between the tackles, where his size actually works to his advantage because defenders often lose sight of him in the trenches. If you're thinking his height is a question mark, consider that MJD is 5'7", Ray Rice and Barry Sanders are 5'8", and Ahmad Bradshaw is 5'9"; so it's not unheard of for small backs like this to be successful. He's one of those guys that doesn't have great measurables, but if you just watch the tape you know he's going to be a star. Because he's such a small back, he'll likely slide to the end of the draft, but I could legitimately see him setting the league on fire in a year or two. For more info on one of my favorite players in the draft including some game tape, check out this profile I wrote on Lewis.
John Clay out of Wisconsin is also in a similar situation to James Starks. He rushed for 1,500 yards in 2009, and won Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Clay, a dominant, bruising runner, with deceptive speed suffered an ankle injury in 2010 that cut his yards down to just over 1,000. However, Clay's yards per carry actually improved in 2010, and if he would have stayed healthy he likely would have ran for more yards than he did in 2009.
Here are some highlights of Clay.
Because of health concerns, Clay might not even get drafted, but I'd so much rather have him in the 7th round then a guy like Kendall Hunter in the 3rd. Clay would be an excellent goal-line back, and a guy that we could rely on when we needed tough yards. He could really soften up defenses for Moreno, and also close out games when Knowshon is fatigued. Clay never fumbled ONCE in his entire Wisconsin career, and with Moreno's difficulties holding on to the ball, a reliable runner like that would be a welcome addition to our backfield.
Instead of Kendal Hunter or DeMarco Murrary, that 3rd round pick could be spent on a legitimate defensive starter like Greg Jones or Ahmad Black, or on a position of real need like TE. Luke Stocker and Lance Kendricks are both intriguing prospects that will likely be there in the 3rd round. We could also target a T or G there depending on what our plans with Harris are.
Aside from my personal favorites of Lewis and Clay there are other guys that will likely go in he 6th round or later that could have a big impact. Taiwan Jones from Eastern Washington is a guy that many people have probably never heard of. He has a similar skill set to Lewis, but is a little bigger of back. Da'Rel Scott from Maryland is another guy who I really liked before the combine because of his blazing straight-line speed. But his 40 time has likely risen his draft stock too high to warrant taking him. At 6'0", 230 Jamie Harper out of Clemson is another bruising, power back we could target. There are plenty of RB's we can draft that can be just as effective as the top guys in the class, but that we can get 3-5 rounds later. As far as I'm concerned, with the current draft picks that we have, and the glaring holes in our defense, taking a RB higher than round 6 is a waste of a pick.
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