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Who is the Safest Pick in the Draft?

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  • Who is the Safest Pick in the Draft?

    I for one am completely torn on who I want in this years draft between Patrick Peterson and Marcell Dareus also I would be o.k with Von Miller. I decided to look at past drafts to see which position is safest by looking at the top 2 draft picks at each position and see what position has had more bust. Im only going to go back 5 years from 2005-2010

    2005: Top 2 Defensive Tackles: Travis Johnson (16th) Mike Patterson (31)
    Line Backers: Demarcus Ware (11th) Shawn Merriman (12th)
    Cornerbacks: Pacman Jones (6th) Antrel Rolle (9th)

    2006: Top 2 Defensive Tackles: Haloti Ngata (12th) Brodrick Bunkley (14th)
    Line Backers: A.J Hawk (5th) Ernie Sims (9th)
    Cornerbacks: Ty Hill (15th) Antonio Cromartie (19th)

    2007: Top 2 Defensive Tackles: Amobi Okoye (10th) Adam Carriker
    Line Backers: Patrick Willis (11th) Lawernce Timmons (15th)
    Cornerbacks: Darrell Revis (14th) Leon Hall (18th)

    2008: Top 2 Defensive Tackles: Glenn Dorsey (5th) Sedrick Ellis (7th)
    Line Backers: Vernon Gholston (6th) Keith Rivers (9th)
    Cornerbacks: Leodis McKelvin (11th) Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (16th)

    2009: Top 2 Defensive Tackles: B.J Raji (9th) Jerry Peria (24th)
    Line Backers: Aaron Curry (4th) Brian Cushing (15th)
    Cornerbacks: Malcom Jenkins (14th) Vonte Davis (25th)

    2010: Top 2 Defensive Tackles:Ndamukong Suh (2nd) Gerald McCoy (3rd)
    Line Backers: Rolando McClain (8th) Sean Witherspoon (19th)
    Cornerbacks: Joe Haden (7th) Kareem Jackson (20th)

    Outlook: Defensive Tackles (5 Top Ten Picks): Suh and Ngata are the only Pro Bowlers. While Raji and Ellis are both solid players. It's still to early to tell with McCoy but overall seems like DT is a very risky pick.

    Line Backers (6 Top Ten picks) Gholston and Rivers both look like bust but with Ware, Willis, Timmons. Cushing and McClain linebacker seems like a pretty solid pick with not a ton of risk.

    Cornerbacks: (3 Top Ten Picks) 2007 was a great year with Revis and Hall and 2009 as well with Jenkins and Davis. Haden also looks good although there may be a reason CB's don't often get picked that high.

    So overall it seems like Linebacker is by far the safest with cornerback being the second safest. Not saying Dareus will be a bust and Miller and Peterson will be HOF'ers but it is interesting to see how past draft picks have turned out.
    Please get Mario Williams!!!!!!!!

  • #2
    Well im thinking of the top prospects liek first rounders and hnoestly there are argunments for every single one that they could be a bust.

    However if I had to I would say Marcel Darius.

    FOR:

    -Perfect build to play in the NFL right now
    -Scheme flexibily
    -All the intangables
    -He is a force

    AGAINST:

    -Limited experience
    -Has played with a lot of good talent around him

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    • #3
      patrick peterson

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      • #4
        Anthony Castonzo
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        Sig by Blondie79

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        • #5
          Dareus or A.J. Green.
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          • #6
            Safest pick. I will give you 2.



            1. Prince Amukamara
            2.AJ. Green
            So far:
            FA- Melvin Gordon. Brandon Scherff
            1. Kenneth Murray LB; 2. Shenault WR; 2B. Biadazz Center, 3. OT

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            • #7
              Among the players, overall:

              .AJ green is an obvious choice (3 productive seasons with at least 50 receptions)

              .I will add Ryan Kerrigan, my #1 4-3 DE and most underrated player in this draft (3 productive seasons with constant improvement, 55.5 TFL, 37.5 sacks).

              For the Broncos, I will go with:

              .Von Miller. Played 4-3 DE (2007), 4-3 WLB (2008), DE/LB hybrid (2009) and 3-4 OLB (2010). Showed ability to adapt to different roles and positions. Productive pass rusher for 2 seasons. 3-year starter. 50.5 TFL, 33 sacks.

              I don't consider Marcell Dareus a safer pick because he played mainly as a backup in 2009, with only 4 starts, then became a starter in 2010 for 11 games and failed to improve his stats.
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              • #8
                Why are 3-4 OLBs listed as LBs in this thread? They'd be DEs in our 4-3 scheme.

                Demarcus Ware would not play LB on our team. This data analysis would be more relevant if only the 4-3 LBs that were drafted were listed.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Ahrum View Post
                  Demarcus Ware would not play LB on our team.
                  I believe he would. Played OLB in college, 6'4 250 with 4.5 speed. Then he added weight and grew stronger (12 pounds) to play 3-4 OLB. But could perfectly work as a 4-3 SLB and even shed some of that weight to play faster. Ware today is 6'4 262 with plenty of athleticism. Mario Haggan, for example, is 6'3 267 with poor athleticism.
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                  • #10
                    Keith Rivers does not look like a bust, he looks like a solid starter.

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                    • #11
                      AJ Green

                      Then Patrick Peterson, IMO
                      2013 Adopt-a-Bronco: Demaryius Thomas

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Roddoliver View Post
                        I believe he would. Played OLB in college, 6'4 250 with 4.5 speed. Then he added weight and grew stronger (12 pounds) to play 3-4 OLB. But could perfectly work as a 4-3 SLB and even shed some of that weight to play faster. Ware today is 6'4 262 with plenty of athleticism. Mario Haggan, for example, is 6'3 267 with poor athleticism.
                        Demarcus Ware's best and most coveted ability is rushing the passer. Getting him to play LB in the 4-3 is wasting his best talent. It's like Manny Lawson on the 49ers right now. He's outstanding in coverage and run support, but they have him as a 3-4 OLB. Sure, he can rush the passer, but he would absolutely thrive as a 4-3 SLB where he can cover the TE and play to his strengths.

                        It's like people getting Von Miller to play SLB. Sure, he can, but why would you want him to? His best ability is to get after the QB, so put him in the position which best lets him do that.

                        Finding a good SLB is a LOT easier than finding ANYONE good at rushing the passer. Not to mention that, while important, the SLB position isn't nearly as valuable as a dedicated rusher.

                        EDIT: this is getting off-topic to the discussion, anyway. I admit, he could play LB in our system, but I don't think he would/should.
                        Last edited by Ahrum; 03-29-2011, 12:07 PM.

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                        • #13
                          JJ Watt, DE Wisconsin is the safest pick in the draft.

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                          • #14
                            I forgot about aj green. He is the safest no doubt in the world.

                            I disagree with castanzo though as he struggled numerous times throughout his career when he had to face nfl prospect speed rushers in college. I think he is really risky.

                            Also the same with prince amukamara. When he has faced quality talent and guys who will go to the NFL he has gotten dominated.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by johnlimburg View Post
                              Well im thinking of the top prospects liek first rounders and hnoestly there are argunments for every single one that they could be a bust.

                              However if I had to I would say Marcel Darius.

                              FOR:

                              -Perfect build to play in the NFL right now
                              -Scheme flexibily
                              -All the intangables
                              -He is a force

                              AGAINST:

                              -Limited experience
                              -Has played with a lot of good talent around him
                              Im a bit puzzled on you saying he has all the intangibles.

                              Warren Sapp said Dareus is better than Fairley. I agree. But, he said one con to Dareus is that his work ethic is questionable. If you want the link google "warren Sapp prefers Dareus to Fairley", and find the pro football talk article in it. 2nd to last paragraph. Ive linked it so many times I know exactly where he says this, lol.

                              Second, Dareus was suspended for two games for his little South Beach party. Whether or not the average Joe thinks this is a big deal is regardless, the NCAA saw enough fishy business to suspend him.

                              Sure things can change and his habits and attitude can change, but its not like the guy has got a great past. To say he has great intangibles is to say you think he has gotten over his past mistakes without any proof, something possible but not necessary true.

                              I'm not saying he is a whiny brat, bad character guy, etc, but I'm not going to let you say he has good intangibles after his past mistakes, simply because you and I will never know how much he has matured.

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