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The debate on this seems to be whether we should have spent a 2nd round pick on someone who's not going to see the field for years, vs. the people who think if you get a potential franchise-caliber QB late in Round 2, you take him. The logic on those opposing the selection is that if Manning goes down we're toast and will get the top pick in the next year's draft or close, so you get your new QB then.
I feel this is an oversimplification. Manning is 36, and so is at greater risk of getting non-season-ending injuries as he ages and his mobility declines. In fact, that's probably more likely than a season-ending or career-ending injury. Here are Manning's sack totals for his entire career:
1998: 22
1999: 14
2000: 20
2001: 29
2002: 23
2003: 18
2004: 13
2005: 17
2006: 14
2007: 21
2008: 14
2009: 10
2010: 16
2011: --
The impression people have is that Manning never gets sacked. Clearly this isn't true; even Manning gets sacked about once per game even in very good years, and absorbed 29 sacks in his 2001 campaign, and with each sack comes injury risk. The sack rate isn't entirely a function of Manning's speed of decisionmaking; it also depends on whether his Oline is protecting him and his receivers are getting open, as well as what the defense is doing and how good they are at bringing pressure.
So we don't only need to worry about whether Manning goes down, we also need to worry about whether his LT Ryan Clady goes down, whether his receivers get injured and he's playing with backups, etc. In such cases it's possible that the sack rate might approach Manning's 2001 campaign.
Another reason to be concerned about a somewhat higher sack rate in 2012 is that Manning is learning a new offense and so is his entire team. It's going to be a hybrid of what he did in Indianapolis and Mike McCoy's stuff, but there's enough of a learning curve there for Manning and his receivers that it's possible his speed of decision-making will be a tick slow at first relative to the polished perfection we were used to seeing when he was with the Colts, which was built up over more than a decade and did not suffer through changes at offensive coordinator.
So let's say it's mid-season and we're 5-2. Then Manning goes down with a high ankle sprain and is out for a month. What then? Well, if you have a backup who is capable of eking out a couple of wins with help from the defense and the running game, then Manning comes back and you're still in the playoff hunt at 7-4 after Osweiler kept the seat warm with a 2-2 record.
By far the easiest route to a Super Bowl with the team we have now is to win home field advantage and let Manning run the hurry-up at Mile High. If we have to go to Foxborough or Pittsburgh in the middle of winter we're underdogs. Even playing at sea-level in Houston could be tough. But to get home field advantage, every win is probably going to be critical, which is why if you've got a scrub as the backup who goes 0-4 when Peyton's out with a month-long injury, you're fighting for a wildcard at best when he comes back at 5-6 in my scenario. Even if you win out from that point you're only 10-6. Maybe that gets you the division, but you're going to play in the wildcard round for sure with that record.
So in the scenario where Manning gets a non-catastrophic injury, Osweiler -- should he pan out -- is in fact a win-now sort of pick. Having a decent backup will be critical to getting to the playoffs if that happens.
This exact scenario played out in Elway's second Super Bowl-winning campaign. Elway battled injuries for all or part of six games and failed to start four of them. Bubby Brister not only kept the seat warm, but was able to go 4-0 in his four starts, which was critical for winning home field advantage and going 14-2 for the season. Elway's memory of this is probably a factor in bringing in Osweiler and getting some competition for Caleb Hanie, who was 0-4 backing up Cutler last season, although dealing with key injuries to skill players and a terrible Oline in the process.
Note too that the backup QBs are important for the starting team's performance even if they don't ever play. The backup QBs have to help run practices. If they do well in practice it helps train the backup wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, etc., some of whom will inevitably play as starters due to injuries at other skill positions. How well the backups can simulate the real thing with Peyton Manning for these players will be critical in their performance on the field. Manning will often run practices for the first-string at game speed. Can your backup do that too for the second stringers, some of whom will be first-stringers before the season's over? So Osweiler will be contributing to the on-field product whether he sits or plays.
I feel this is an oversimplification. Manning is 36, and so is at greater risk of getting non-season-ending injuries as he ages and his mobility declines. In fact, that's probably more likely than a season-ending or career-ending injury. Here are Manning's sack totals for his entire career:
1998: 22
1999: 14
2000: 20
2001: 29
2002: 23
2003: 18
2004: 13
2005: 17
2006: 14
2007: 21
2008: 14
2009: 10
2010: 16
2011: --
The impression people have is that Manning never gets sacked. Clearly this isn't true; even Manning gets sacked about once per game even in very good years, and absorbed 29 sacks in his 2001 campaign, and with each sack comes injury risk. The sack rate isn't entirely a function of Manning's speed of decisionmaking; it also depends on whether his Oline is protecting him and his receivers are getting open, as well as what the defense is doing and how good they are at bringing pressure.
So we don't only need to worry about whether Manning goes down, we also need to worry about whether his LT Ryan Clady goes down, whether his receivers get injured and he's playing with backups, etc. In such cases it's possible that the sack rate might approach Manning's 2001 campaign.
Another reason to be concerned about a somewhat higher sack rate in 2012 is that Manning is learning a new offense and so is his entire team. It's going to be a hybrid of what he did in Indianapolis and Mike McCoy's stuff, but there's enough of a learning curve there for Manning and his receivers that it's possible his speed of decision-making will be a tick slow at first relative to the polished perfection we were used to seeing when he was with the Colts, which was built up over more than a decade and did not suffer through changes at offensive coordinator.
So let's say it's mid-season and we're 5-2. Then Manning goes down with a high ankle sprain and is out for a month. What then? Well, if you have a backup who is capable of eking out a couple of wins with help from the defense and the running game, then Manning comes back and you're still in the playoff hunt at 7-4 after Osweiler kept the seat warm with a 2-2 record.
By far the easiest route to a Super Bowl with the team we have now is to win home field advantage and let Manning run the hurry-up at Mile High. If we have to go to Foxborough or Pittsburgh in the middle of winter we're underdogs. Even playing at sea-level in Houston could be tough. But to get home field advantage, every win is probably going to be critical, which is why if you've got a scrub as the backup who goes 0-4 when Peyton's out with a month-long injury, you're fighting for a wildcard at best when he comes back at 5-6 in my scenario. Even if you win out from that point you're only 10-6. Maybe that gets you the division, but you're going to play in the wildcard round for sure with that record.
So in the scenario where Manning gets a non-catastrophic injury, Osweiler -- should he pan out -- is in fact a win-now sort of pick. Having a decent backup will be critical to getting to the playoffs if that happens.
This exact scenario played out in Elway's second Super Bowl-winning campaign. Elway battled injuries for all or part of six games and failed to start four of them. Bubby Brister not only kept the seat warm, but was able to go 4-0 in his four starts, which was critical for winning home field advantage and going 14-2 for the season. Elway's memory of this is probably a factor in bringing in Osweiler and getting some competition for Caleb Hanie, who was 0-4 backing up Cutler last season, although dealing with key injuries to skill players and a terrible Oline in the process.
Note too that the backup QBs are important for the starting team's performance even if they don't ever play. The backup QBs have to help run practices. If they do well in practice it helps train the backup wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, etc., some of whom will inevitably play as starters due to injuries at other skill positions. How well the backups can simulate the real thing with Peyton Manning for these players will be critical in their performance on the field. Manning will often run practices for the first-string at game speed. Can your backup do that too for the second stringers, some of whom will be first-stringers before the season's over? So Osweiler will be contributing to the on-field product whether he sits or plays.
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