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  • #61
    Originally posted by lvbronx View Post
    I used the number 30 because I said the history of the Broncos drafts and there weren't always 32 teams during our history, so #30 would have been a second round pick.

    Also, I wanted the ENTIRE draft pool available from 30-120 or so, not just cherry picking 31 vs. 120. But I can see that I wasn't very clear and why you thought that.

    I don't know how old you are to be able to compare players over the years, but take a look at our second round picks vs our fourth rounders sometime. I'll clearly take our 4th rounders over our second rounders. Yes, I believe this is probably an outlier. But I'd trade a 2 for two 4s any day.

    Also, we need to be clear in that (depending on specific drafts) there's generally a big drop off from over-all 1-6 or 1-10 and after. But IMO there's little difference historically between 19-22 or so and 24-27 or so.
    that makes almost zero sense to me.

    You want to look at draft rounds? Compare an entire 2nd round vs an entire 4th round and see how many good players come out of each one. Here is a link to the 2011 draft which I just had up randomly from an earlier post: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NFL_Draft


    I see 1, maybe 2 good picks in the 4th round. I see 6 or 7 in the 2nd round.




    edit.....you would trade a 2 for two 4s but not a 1 for 2 two's? the draft value board says you should get five 4s for a 2 (#33)
    Last edited by broncos SB2010; 01-05-2017, 09:43 PM.
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    • #62
      Originally posted by lvbronx View Post
      I agree that you can't just trade down for the sake of trading down. I don't think I'd trade a 25 for a 50 plus 58 either in most years. There is a talent gap there.

      As for #20 vs 2 2's and a 3., it would depend on how high the first #2 is and my draft board. On the other hand, it's very unlikely I would trade up for the #20 in that example either. As Elway said, sometimes the best deal is the one you don't make.
      That's exactly the point Butler and I have trying make. You can't make blanket statements saying trading down is better because sometimes it's true and sometimes it isn't. it depends how far you trade and who you get.
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      • #63
        You guys are intense. Don't you know the draft is a crap shoot? All you need to do is trust your scouting department. I would rather Elway trade up or down to target a guy he likes rather than just trade down to get more picks to have a "higher chance".
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        • #64
          Originally posted by lvbronx View Post
          Yes, you came up with a few examples, just as a few examples were posted above how trading up worked out for us. However, we need to examine EVERY trade not just a couple. And our results show the players we were "targeting" by trading up haven't turned out to be any better than the players we traded down to get, as well as collected more picks by doing so.

          When considering these trades, we should also factor in potential players lost by trading up and the players we've gained by trading down.

          My point is that drafting players isn't an exact science and there's little difference between the players available 6 picks apart. And there's very little difference between players drafted 76 and 96. Teams tend to fall in love with players in the draft, but they're not perfect and having extra picks means more chances of finding good players.

          I forget the numbers, but it's something like less than 50% of first round picks become long term starters for the team that drafted them. Teams and fans highly over-rate draft picks.

          Bellichick trades down to collect more draft picks and I'd bet that teams with the most picks year in and year out are the teams the do the best finding players. If a team gets two extra picks every year, that's 20 extra over a 10 year period. I like the chances of finding an extra good player or two with those extra picks.
          You're missing one major stat in your assessment and ultimately your final conclusion.

          Let's use the 2016 Pro Bowl players as an example:

          50% of the players selected are 1st round picks.

          A total of 22 of the players (i hope I got the count right) are from the 4th round and beyond. I chose this count/ stat because what I often recall seeing us getting is an additional 4th or 5th round pick for a drop down in the first.

          Looking a bit deeper into overall league success:

          I will only look at the stats for OL.

          Over a 10 year period 421 OL players have been drafted - 147 have wound up as starters in the league for at least half of their career (I looked it up and the average career length for an NFL lineman is about 3.3 years).

          The over whelming success rate has come from those picked in the first round and the second (which there is a drop in percentage from the first to second). After that there is a relatively steep decline is success.

          Again looking at the 2016 Pro Bowl as a proxy:

          OT:
          1st- 4
          2nd- 1

          Guard:
          1st- 4
          2nd- 0
          3rd- 3
          4th- 1

          Centers:
          1st- 4
          2nd- 1

          Again the math and stats are pretty clear. The top performing players on the OL league-wide pretty overwhelmingly came into their respective teams as 1st round picks.

          I selected OL not because after doing some reading it seemed to fit my narrative I selected it because for the most part it seems to be the consensus that it needs to be our focus if we are to return to the Play-offs and hopefully another SB. Also of note there has been some significant fails in 1st round OL players as well but that is why scouting and coaching (ie. picking the right player) is key.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by Rich_C View Post
            You're missing one major stat in your assessment and ultimately your final conclusion.

            Let's use the 2016 Pro Bowl players as an example:

            50% of the players selected are 1st round picks.

            A total of 22 of the players (i hope I got the count right) are from the 4th round and beyond. I chose this count/ stat because what I often recall seeing us getting is an additional 4th or 5th round pick for a drop down in the first.

            Looking a bit deeper into overall league success:

            I will only look at the stats for OL.

            Over a 10 year period 421 OL players have been drafted - 147 have wound up as starters in the league for at least half of their career (I looked it up and the average career length for an NFL lineman is about 3.3 years).

            The over whelming success rate has come from those picked in the first round and the second (which there is a drop in percentage from the first to second). After that there is a relatively steep decline is success.

            Again looking at the 2016 Pro Bowl as a proxy:

            OT:
            1st- 4
            2nd- 1

            Guard:
            1st- 4
            2nd- 0
            3rd- 3
            4th- 1

            Centers:
            1st- 4
            2nd- 1

            Again the math and stats are pretty clear. The top performing players on the OL league-wide pretty overwhelmingly came into their respective teams as 1st round picks.

            I selected OL not because after doing some reading it seemed to fit my narrative I selected it because for the most part it seems to be the consensus that it needs to be our focus if we are to return to the Play-offs and hopefully another SB. Also of note there has been some significant fails in 1st round OL players as well but that is why scouting and coaching (ie. picking the right player) is key.
            Good work!
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            • #66
              Originally posted by Rich_C View Post
              You're missing one major stat in your assessment and ultimately your final conclusion.

              Let's use the 2016 Pro Bowl players as an example:

              50% of the players selected are 1st round picks.

              A total of 22 of the players (i hope I got the count right) are from the 4th round and beyond. I chose this count/ stat because what I often recall seeing us getting is an additional 4th or 5th round pick for a drop down in the first.

              Looking a bit deeper into overall league success:

              I will only look at the stats for OL.

              Over a 10 year period 421 OL players have been drafted - 147 have wound up as starters in the league for at least half of their career (I looked it up and the average career length for an NFL lineman is about 3.3 years).

              The over whelming success rate has come from those picked in the first round and the second (which there is a drop in percentage from the first to second). After that there is a relatively steep decline is success.

              Again looking at the 2016 Pro Bowl as a proxy:

              OT:
              1st- 4
              2nd- 1

              Guard:
              1st- 4
              2nd- 0
              3rd- 3
              4th- 1

              Centers:
              1st- 4
              2nd- 1

              Again the math and stats are pretty clear. The top performing players on the OL league-wide pretty overwhelmingly came into their respective teams as 1st round picks.

              I selected OL not because after doing some reading it seemed to fit my narrative I selected it because for the most part it seems to be the consensus that it needs to be our focus if we are to return to the Play-offs and hopefully another SB. Also of note there has been some significant fails in 1st round OL players as well but that is why scouting and coaching (ie. picking the right player) is key.
              offensive linemen in the pro bowl are mainly a name thing. i think its better to look at pro football focus and lines in general

              i think the cowboys show you can get something special if you hit on alot of early round o-linemn
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              oakland raders gm
              latavis murray trade bait

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Kyousukeneko View Post
                offensive linemen in the pro bowl are mainly a name thing. i think its better to look at pro football focus and lines in general

                i think the cowboys show you can get something special if you hit on alot of early round o-linemn
                why? Their rankings are generally bad for Olinemen.....
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                • #68
                  Speaking of trading up....

                  I want to take ILB Jarrad Davis at #20. Then I want to use a 3rd and our 2nd to move up to early 2nd/late 1st and take DT Caleb Brantley.
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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by lvbronx View Post
                    Again, it's an undeniable fact. If you have zero picks, you have zero chance of drafting a good player. If you have 100 picks, you have a much better chance of drafting a good player than if you have zero picks. Sorry, but that's the way things work.
                    LOOOOLLLLL

                    Are you going to carry a team of 53 rookies?

                    The kids have to make the team competing against vets...

                    More picks help yes...

                    But say you have 10 picks, how are you going to find a way to get all those guys playing time against competition?

                    It's about Quality, not Quantity

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                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Kyousukeneko View Post
                      offensive linemen in the pro bowl are mainly a name thing. i think its better to look at pro football focus and lines in general

                      i think the cowboys show you can get something special if you hit on alot of early round o-linemn
                      Some of the lineman and WR's may have made it to the pro bowl due to name recognition but how did they get there? For the most part they got there because of their above average or exceptional play not because their name or last name sounded cool LOL. The cowboys quite literally have an embarrassment of riches at the Oline position. Their run game is fantastic and they have generally done well passing the ball as well this season. All-in-all I think it is fair to say that MOST of the lineman...no sorry the VAST majority of the lineman are there because they are that good.

                      I'd also be curious to see if there is a stat for lineman adjacent making errors during play on PFF. There were a multitude of plays where I saw Garcia just outright make a mistake and Okung try to move back and cover both blocks or push his guy over to the right to try and slow Garcia's man down. This is the issue with some of the web stats is that they cover a lot but not enough. I see them as a good starting point for some positions but OL and DL in particular where there is a lot more cohesion and collaborative components working together those types of stats are hard to base a complete opinion on.

                      An example would be on a number of run plays which resulted in negative yards how many of those plays were as a result of an unblocked or barely blocked defender. The latter I am referring to a defender just pushing aside the lineman. On the flip side on our run D how many times on run plays did our NT get penetration and get behind the OL? Or for our edge rushers how many times were they double teamed a game vs the NT being double teamed....

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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by FlowdaBroncoFan View Post
                        Speaking of trading up....

                        I want to take ILB Jarrad Davis at #20. Then I want to use a 3rd and our 2nd to move up to early 2nd/late 1st and take DT Caleb Brantley.
                        I like these moves but if this is the case you better hope that we get our OL sorted 100% this off-season. The other issue is that if we do not draft a top OT or top G in the 1st or second then we may be in trouble as we really don't have great backups on our roster who can step in and do well for long periods of time.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by FlowdaBroncoFan View Post
                          You guys are intense. Don't you know the draft is a crap shoot? All you need to do is trust your scouting department. I would rather Elway trade up or down to target a guy he likes rather than just trade down to get more picks to have a "higher chance".
                          actually if Elway made aggressive moves to trade up and down the draft board he may very well be trusting the scouts.For example what if our scouts have a top 10 pick on an OT and he falls to 15 or if we have a 2nd round grade on another really good player and we see he is going to wind up there near the top of the 3rd? Trading to get that guy is not showing a distrust in our scouts in fact it is the exact opposite.

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                          • #73
                            I've warmed up to the idea of taking Jarrad Davis with at 20 the kid looks like he is going to be a beast and if Brantley is gone before around 26 then I'd trade up and get Lowell Lotulelei

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by Rich_C View Post
                              I like these moves but if this is the case you better hope that we get our OL sorted 100% this off-season. The other issue is that if we do not draft a top OT or top G in the 1st or second then we may be in trouble as we really don't have great backups on our roster who can step in and do well for long periods of time.
                              Well we should know this before the draft begins via FA.
                              Jacksonville Jaguars Broncomania GM:

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