Reasons to draft Quenton Nelson

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Well as the game has been shifting to more dominant interior DL, contracts from interior OL have trended upwards significantly as well. I dont view it as negatively affecting the cap moreso as not a positive, which to me is a huge difference.

Sure. I don't disagree with you. I'm saying that I understand the reluctance to draft a Guard at #5 from a financial point of view. Say you draft a QB like Wilson of the Seahawks and he becomes your starter quickly. Now you've got a guy playing for less than $10 MIL who probably has a market value of over $25 MIL. You get that all the way through his rookie contract. Say you draft a guy like Nelson and he becomes a starter. Now you've got a guy playing for less than $10 MIL who probably has a market value of less than $10 MIL. With Nelson you miss out on possible cap relief. I'd still like to draft Nelson but I do understand the reluctance from a financial perspective.

[SecondsAway131]

I have been trying to wrap my head around for months the concept of drafting Nelson and trying to think objectively about a reason to draft him. Many know I am HIGHLY against it for MANY reasons, however I did come up with 1 reason and 1 reason only why Nelson should be the pick.

That reason is if John Elway doesnt trust his scouts or his own evaluations of the other prospects in the draft and isn't willing to take a shot at being wrong. There is no doubt to me that Nelson will be a good player, that has never been my argument. My problem has always been in the value of a guard. But if Elway is too scared to pull the trigger on another more valuable position and just wants to get a safe player then I could understand picking Nelson. Personally picking in the top 5 I don't want safe, I want impact and guards just dont provide that.

You have made it clear that you don't put much value in the position, and would never draft Nelson at #5.

Instead of trying to wrap your head around some scenario where Elway is scared and takes a guard because he "doesn't trust his scouts," maybe you should entertain the idea that some don't share your opinion that a guard can't be an impact player. We don't know where Elway stands on this. The upcoming draft may or may not provide clarity on this topic.

[the0rangecrush]

I have been trying to wrap my head around for months the concept of drafting Nelson and trying to think objectively about a reason to draft him. Many know I am HIGHLY against it for MANY reasons, however I did come up with 1 reason and 1 reason only why Nelson should be the pick.

That reason is if John Elway doesnt trust his scouts or his own evaluations of the other prospects in the draft and isn't willing to take a shot at being wrong. There is no doubt to me that Nelson will be a good player, that has never been my argument. My problem has always been in the value of a guard. But if Elway is too scared to pull the trigger on another more valuable position and just wants to get a safe player then I could understand picking Nelson. Personally picking in the top 5 I don't want safe, I want impact and guards just dont provide that.

There is the possibility that Nelson has graded far and away higher than any other prospect, and he in fact trusts his or his scouts evaluation that he takes an OG that high.

This isn't just a "this guy has the highest floor" argument it's a "this guy has the highest floor and highest ceiling" argument.

[the0rangecrush]

I do get that point of disagreement about drafting Nelson though. If the Broncos drafted a guy at a high dollar position (like QB) then they'd be getting a great deal on a rookie contract for a while. If they draft at a position that typically isn't paid well then they aren't getting that deal. It's something to be considered as it negatively affects their cap (vs. choosing a typically higher paid position) down the road and it's a valid point. Still you have to consider Leary's contract numbers over the next few years and whether he'll get another one in Denver, as well as who would be the next #2 and #3 (maybe #4) Guards on the roster.

Well as the game has been shifting to more dominant interior DL, contracts from interior OL have trended upwards significantly as well. I dont view it as negatively affecting the cap moreso as not a positive, which to me is a huge difference.

[listopencil]

Is he? We won't know that answer until the season, like any pick. Can he? Absolutely, his build, technique, athleticism, and film suggest he could end up as arguably the best OL overall in the NFL. Last years #5 pick was Corey Davis, he has cap hits of about
4.6
5.8
6.9
8.1

That would put him as the 11th highest hit at his high year. Then the 5th would be an average of top 5.

I do get that point of disagreement about drafting Nelson though. If the Broncos drafted a guy at a high dollar position (like QB) then they'd be getting a great deal on a rookie contract for a while. If they draft at a position that typically isn't paid well then they aren't getting that deal. It's something to be considered as it negatively affects their cap (vs. choosing a typically higher paid position) down the road and it's a valid point. Still you have to consider Leary's contract numbers over the next few years and whether he'll get another one in Denver, as well as who would be the next #2 and #3 (maybe #4) Guards on the roster.

[JW7]

I have been trying to wrap my head around for months the concept of drafting Nelson and trying to think objectively about a reason to draft him. Many know I am HIGHLY against it for MANY reasons, however I did come up with 1 reason and 1 reason only why Nelson should be the pick.

That reason is if John Elway doesnt trust his scouts or his own evaluations of the other prospects in the draft and isn't willing to take a shot at being wrong. There is no doubt to me that Nelson will be a good player, that has never been my argument. My problem has always been in the value of a guard. But if Elway is too scared to pull the trigger on another more valuable position and just wants to get a safe player then I could understand picking Nelson. Personally picking in the top 5 I don't want safe, I want impact and guards just dont provide that.

I have been against you on Nelson since the beginning but I can understand your point here. I get the sentiment of taking a risk on a QB but I think this team needs a sure thing at #5. There is a devoid of talent on this roster and we need people who aren't risks. Nelson seems like a plug and play prospect that fills this teams biggest need in my opinion. The interior of the offensive line has been a joke recently and I, like many others want to see that change.

The league is changing as well and guards are becoming more important. So while historically, you don't draft guards at #5 it has become reasonable now, especially with a player of Nelsons caliber.

Regardless if we disagree, good on you for coming with a reasonable argument against drafting him.

[crp24lbc]

I have been trying to wrap my head around for months the concept of drafting Nelson and trying to think objectively about a reason to draft him. Many know I am HIGHLY against it for MANY reasons, however I did come up with 1 reason and 1 reason only why Nelson should be the pick.

That reason is if John Elway doesnt trust his scouts or his own evaluations of the other prospects in the draft and isn't willing to take a shot at being wrong. There is no doubt to me that Nelson will be a good player, that has never been my argument. My problem has always been in the value of a guard. But if Elway is too scared to pull the trigger on another more valuable position and just wants to get a safe player then I could understand picking Nelson. Personally picking in the top 5 I don't want safe, I want impact and guards just dont provide that.

[the0rangecrush]

I agree but I still like Da'Ron Payne.


Back to Nelson. As many have said it depends on his actual value. IF he is taken at #5 he will be getting paid like he is a top 5 player at his position. Is he? Can he be? That is the real question.

Is he? We won't know that answer until the season, like any pick. Can he? Absolutely, his build, technique, athleticism, and film suggest he could end up as arguably the best OL overall in the NFL. Last years #5 pick was Corey Davis, he has cap hits of about
4.6
5.8
6.9
8.1

That would put him as the 11th highest hit at his high year. Then the 5th would be an average of top 5.

[Rich_C]

Vita vea may be worth looking into if you want a big guy that can get pressures and sacks

I agree but I still like Da'Ron Payne.


Back to Nelson. As many have said it depends on his actual value. IF he is taken at #5 he will be getting paid like he is a top 5 player at his position. Is he? Can he be? That is the real question.

[Kyousukeneko]

27 pressures over 14 games? Not sure I love that, especially with only 1 sack to show for it. He's only even had 5 tackles for loss over 3 seasons. I don't see the makings of a great interior pass rusher. Again, I could be wrong, but he's not showing it.

As a point of comparison, Derek Wolfe had 37 tackles for loss and 19.5 sacks. Playing 2 years at Tennessee Malik Jackson had 22 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Calais Campbell had 39 tackles for loss, 19.5 sacks in 3 years. Nick Fairley had 27.5 tackles for loss and 13 sacks in 2 seasons at Auburn. Even Sylvester Williams had 20.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in 2 seasons at UNC.

3 sacks and 5 tackles for loss on a 309 pound tackle tell me he's a space eating player, he'll tie up blockers, but he's not creating pressure on a regular basis.

Vita vea may be worth looking into if you want a big guy that can get pressures and sacks

[Butler By'Note]

He is athletic enough to be one I think that for Alabama pass rushing wasn’t his role he was just a disrupted to allow everyone around him to make plays.

Edit-also just read on his draft profile he had 27 pressures so I think the ability is there.

27 pressures over 14 games? Not sure I love that, especially with only 1 sack to show for it. He's only even had 5 tackles for loss over 3 seasons. I don't see the makings of a great interior pass rusher. Again, I could be wrong, but he's not showing it.

As a point of comparison, Derek Wolfe had 37 tackles for loss and 19.5 sacks. Playing 2 years at Tennessee Malik Jackson had 22 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks. Calais Campbell had 39 tackles for loss, 19.5 sacks in 3 years. Nick Fairley had 27.5 tackles for loss and 13 sacks in 2 seasons at Auburn. Even Sylvester Williams had 20.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks in 2 seasons at UNC.

3 sacks and 5 tackles for loss on a 309 pound tackle tell me he's a space eating player, he'll tie up blockers, but he's not creating pressure on a regular basis.

[Jonny_Quest]

Even swapping their 12th pick + Shady is enough for me.

I would definitely have to smash some furniture if we pulled the trigger on a deal that bad.

[ERoyal248]

If they are offering Shady with any sort of trade up/down deal, that's an easy take for me. Even swapping their 12th pick + Shady is enough for me. Dude would instantly replace and upgrade CJ's spot.

McCoy is 29-30, he's at that age where RB's start to decline, would want a bit more, would rather just draft a younger guy with the extra picks we'd get.

[ERoyal248]

Didnt say, but if we are to use what incarcerated Bob reported

They offered the giants

Both 1sts, 2nd, 3rd, and next years 2nd.


I've also heard rumors maybe Shady gets included but idk about that

Shady was involved in the Browns, Giants, Bills 3-way deal that got quickly rebuffed.

But that is a very intriguing trade offer though if Bills offered it. Could fill quite a bit of current and long-term holes with that.

[the0rangecrush]

If they are offering Shady with any sort of trade up/down deal, that's an easy take for me. Even swapping their 12th pick + Shady is enough for me. Dude would instantly replace and upgrade CJ's spot.

I wouldn't go that far. I am wary of the 30 year old mark for RBs, but it fits Elway's criteria of win now and now on. Impact player, and a lot of young talent.