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Reasons to draft Quenton Nelson

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  • #76
    Originally posted by JvDub95 View Post
    And McGovern, I think he'll turn out to be a good lineman
    .

    And maybe Bolles too.

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by montee2ball View Post
      Nelson, Barkley, Smith, any QB. As long as Matt Russell is heading the Personnel and Scouting Depts., they won’t get it right. I hope Kukiak has more input than this imbecile. I can see it now: With the 5th pick in the 2018 draft, the Denver Broncos select Thomas Lee, QB, University of Concordia. 6’8” 210 lbs.

      So until Matt Russell is sent down to the Pit of Misery, how can we have faith in this FO. At the end we will all be disappointed.
      to the pit of misery
      dilly dilly
      "Stand behind our troops or Feel free to stand in front of them!"

      Comment


      • #78
        Here is an article from 2015 showing stats for drafted players and success rate by position in the first round. They have a lot of charts showing 10 year, 25 year, and top 5 picks. I just posted one, but here is thier summary conclusions:

        Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back

        A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers.



        Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line

        Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range.



        Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker

        The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample.



        Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

        But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.



        Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

        Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.





        All-Pro rates among top-5 picks, 25-year sample

        Position... Drafted... Multiple All-Pros... All-Pro rate
        OL...... 15 ......4...... 26.7%
        WR/TE...... 9 2...... 22.2%
        CB...... 9...... 2...... 22.2%
        RB...... 18...... 3...... 16.7%
        LB...... 15...... 2...... 13.3%
        DL...... 27...... 3...... 11.1%
        QB...... 27...... 1...... 3.7%
        S...... 5...... 0...... 0.0%
        Last edited by broncos SB2010; 01-13-2018, 08:39 PM.
        sigpic

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        • #79
          Originally posted by broncos SB2010 View Post
          He didn't say he would take Nelson over those others. He very well might take Barkley if it were up to him. He is just saying that Nelson has a case to be called the #1 prospect in the draft. That's how good Nelson seems to be. Yes, 999 times out of 1000, you would be right in saying don't take an OG at 5 but this guy is the exception to many people.

          Do you think Larry Allen would have been worth a #5 pick? I'm not saying nelson will be Larry Allen but you seem to think no OG is worth it...is Allen?
          Hell yes Allen would be...we can say that now after the fact though....Steve hutch would be too....again we learn that after the fact...Allen was a 2nd round pick and Steve was 17th in the 1st...neither was top 5 pick.....Nelson may be as good as them but we don't know and it's too high if we don't know...like I said if we can get him at 11-19 go for it.
          Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by broncos SB2010 View Post
            Here is an article from 2015 showing stats for drafted players and success rate by position in the first round. They have a lot of charts showing 10 year, 25 year, and top 5 picks. I just posted one, but here is thier summary conclusions:

            Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back

            A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers.



            Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line

            Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range.



            Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker

            The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample.



            Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

            But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.



            Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

            Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.





            All-Pro rates among top-5 picks, 25-year sample

            Position... Drafted... Multiple All-Pros... All-Pro rate
            OL...... 15 ......4...... 26.7%
            WR/TE...... 9 2...... 22.2%
            CB...... 9...... 2...... 22.2%
            RB...... 18...... 3...... 16.7%
            LB...... 15...... 2...... 13.3%
            DL...... 27...... 3...... 11.1%
            QB...... 27...... 1...... 3.7%
            S...... 5...... 0...... 0.0%
            These numbers are not true....
            Cooper and chance are bust but I guess it depends on what ones Verizon of bust is.

            This also says 1st rd...NOT TOP 5 PICKS....
            Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by fraguela09 View Post
              Didn’t he find Paradis? Again, probability much greater to find a OG in mid-late rounds....
              And not to hit on 2nd rounder Sambraillo, 3rd rounder Michael Schofield, 4th rounder Max Garcia, 5th rounder Phillip Blake, Vinston Painter and so on. Paradis is serviceable with word McGovern’s best position might be center.

              More misses than hits. Elway’s FA RTs are another story.

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by Ear2dastreets View Post
                These numbers are not true....
                Cooper and chance are bust but I guess it depends on what ones Verizon of bust is.

                This also says 1st rd...NOT TOP 5 PICKS....

                We studied every first round between 1986 and 2010, using a 25-year sample as well as a 10-year sample that covers just the first decade of the 21st century. Then, based on All-Pros, Pro Bowls and career starts, we determined how often players at each position become successful compared to how often they fail to deliver.


                Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

                But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.



                Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

                Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.
                Last edited by Peanut; 01-14-2018, 02:48 PM.
                sigpic

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                • #83
                  Originally posted by fraguela09 View Post
                  Didn’t he find Paradis? Again, probability much greater to find a OG in mid-late rounds....
                  He also cut Paradis his rookie yr and had him on the Practice squad.
                  "Stand behind our troops or Feel free to stand in front of them!"

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by munoz1987 View Post
                    He also cut Paradis his rookie yr and had him on the Practice squad.
                    Because maybe he wasn’t ready yet? That’s not that uncommon. However, coaches have a lot of say in what players make the 53.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      There's No Doubt Nelson is a Stud.
                      But if the Broncos Fail to get Cousins in FA they are going to be drafting a QB at #5.
                      If they Get Cousins there's no better way to Protect that investment then to go OL. at #5. He should be the BPA at #5 (cuz Saquon Barkley will be gone), let's see how much the NFL values OGs. If there's an OT rated close to him they most likely will go OT.
                      Start of Free Agency (March 14th) can't come soon enough.
                      "Stand behind our troops or Feel free to stand in front of them!"

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by broncos SB2010 View Post

                        We studied every first round between 1986 and 2010, using a 25-year sample as well as a 10-year sample that covers just the first decade of the 21st century. Then, based on All-Pros, Pro Bowls and career starts, we determined how often players at each position become successful compared to how often they fail to deliver.


                        Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

                        But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.



                        Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

                        Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.
                        I don't care about no stats they came up with....in the past 18 years how many guard have been picked in the top 5?????

                        Say it all you want.....go get all the facts you want...fact is since 2000..I don't think it's been one guard selected that high...soooo ummm forget your stat dropping.....
                        Last edited by Peanut; 01-14-2018, 02:49 PM.
                        Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          I personally think Nelson is the safest pick in the draft, and arguably it's best player. However, I've pretty much penciled in Willie Hernandez from UTEP with our 2nd round pick. Sean Kugler was his HC, and now coaches interior OL. If he has a strong senior bowl week, the stars all but align IMO. I think the top 5 ends up being

                          Rosen/Darnold
                          Rosen/Darnold
                          Barkley
                          Fitzpatrick

                          Baker(assuming we dont Kirk), Roquan, Chubb(unlikely imo), and the pick of the OTs.
                          What's the difference between ignorance and apathy?
                          I don't know and I don't care

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by the0rangecrush View Post
                            I personally think Nelson is the safest pick in the draft, and arguably it's best player. However, I've pretty much penciled in Willie Hernandez from UTEP with our 2nd round pick. Sean Kugler was his HC, and now coaches interior OL. If he has a strong senior bowl week, the stars all but align IMO. I think the top 5 ends up being

                            Rosen/Darnold
                            Rosen/Darnold
                            Barkley
                            Fitzpatrick

                            Baker(assuming we dont Kirk), Roquan, Chubb(unlikely imo), and the pick of the OTs.
                            If we don’t get Kirk and Allen is available at #5 and we take Mayfield over him, Elway should be strung up.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by KWHIT97 View Post
                              If we don’t get Kirk and Allen is available at #5 and we take Mayfield over him, Elway should be strung up.
                              If things play out that way I think he will, the Denver coaching staff requested that Mayfield be on their team during the senior bowl.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by JvDub95 View Post
                                If things play out that way I think he will, the Denver coaching staff requested that Mayfield be on their team during the senior bowl.
                                Don't mean they will draft him....Elway loves tall qbs....he may not go get a 6'8 or 6'7 but I highly doubt he drops down to 5'11 to 6'0 qb.
                                Until we get a TRUE not name "Lock" qb we will miss the playoffs and be average at best! I'm E2DS and I approve this message! "AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW, NOW YA KNOW."

                                Comment

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