Reasons to draft Quenton Nelson

[JvDub95]

Don't mean they will draft him....Elway loves tall qbs....he may not go get a 6'8 or 6'7 but I highly doubt he drops down to 5'11 to 6'0 qb.

He experimented with tall QB's in the last few drafts and it hasn't worked. I think he is going to move on from that experiment and just go with what Kubiak suggests, but who really knows..

[JvDub95]

Don't mean they will draft him....Elway loves tall qbs....he may not go get a 6'8 or 6'7 but I highly doubt he drops down to 5'11 to 6'0 qb.

it gives him the best chance at being drafted by Denver. They have an opportunity to put him into their offense and see how he handles it. If he has success in the senior bowl i'll bet your bottom dollar that he is at the top of Denver's draft board.

[haciendadad]

blurb from your link:


Years ago, left tackles were the premier players among offensive linemen with most serving as the blindside pass protector for their club's right-handed quarterbacks and often facing opponents' top rusher.

Defenses are much more complicated in today's game with some of the NFL's most effective sack artists now gap-splitting defensive tackles or edge rushers looping inside after initially lining up on the outside. The straightest line to the quarterback, after all, is right up the middle.

As such, difference-makers along the interior of the offensive line have become very nearly as valuable as tackles in the modern NFL. This is especially true for blockers like Nelson, who not only are effective in pass protection but dominant run blockers, as well.

Nelson redshirted his first season at Notre Dame but has more than lived up to his prep All-American billing since, starting every game but one over the past three seasons at left guard, allowing zero QB sacks (or even hits) over the past two years and helping the Irish average an eye-popping 6.4 rushing yards per attempt in 2017.

Generally, running backs get most of the credit when teams run the ball this effectively but it was Nelson who was voted team MVP during the awards banquet. Nelson was just the third blocker for the Irish to ever be so honored in the school's 97-year history and the first since guard Al Wujciak in 1975.

Massive, mobile and mean, Nelson is a prototypical guard who will be expected to not only make an immediate impact for his future NFL team but compete for future Pro Bowls, much like his predecessor with the Irish, current Dallas Cowboys' second year All-Pro Zack Martin. Just like Martin - the 16th overall pick in 2014 - Nelson ranks among the safest prospects in the 2018 NFL draft.

I like the idea, but I considering he was playing next to Mike McGlinchey, he may look better than he would have been if he had some average LT next to him. And the fact that Notre Dame had both of these guys but were only the 3rd best offensive lines in yards per carry bested by Alabama and Auburn. So, my point is that there are other options still available. Now, Nelson may still be the best of the bunch but at #5, he has to be an absolute team maker like Von has been. He is rated as a top 25 pick. He may last that long because he is a guard but if he is available at 15, I would agree to move up to get him!! He is considered one of the safest picks in the draft and an NFL pro bowl caliber Guard.

[ERoyal248]

Don't mean they will draft him....Elway loves tall qbs....he may not go get a 6'8 or 6'7 but I highly doubt he drops down to 5'11 to 6'0 qb.

I mean, Denver REQUESTED to have Mayfield on their team at the Senior Bowl. They clearly want a closer look to see if he can make the tough throws, what kinda person he is, can he play under center, among other things.

Also if Mayfield impresses them enough, it would allow them to not get in the bidding war for Cousins and load up the team in free agency around Baker.

[ERoyal248]

I personally think Nelson is the safest pick in the draft, and arguably it's best player. However, I've pretty much penciled in Willie Hernandez from UTEP with our 2nd round pick. Sean Kugler was his HC, and now coaches interior OL. If he has a strong senior bowl week, the stars all but align IMO. I think the top 5 ends up being

Rosen/Darnold
Rosen/Darnold
Barkley
Fitzpatrick

Baker(assuming we dont Kirk), Roquan, Chubb(unlikely imo), and the pick of the OTs.

I think Colts go Chubb, Marlon Mack showed some promise and this is a deep RB class. Also if Colts hire McDaniels i could see them poach one of Burkhead or Lewis away from the Pats in free agency.

I dont see any of the OT's worth a top 5 pick.

Nelson, Roquan, Chubb/Barkley, Minkah or QB are who they could be going for. Kirk probably depends if Baker impresses them enough at Mobile or not.

[Ear2dastreets]

I mean, Denver REQUESTED to have Mayfield on their team at the Senior Bowl. They clearly want a closer look to see if he can make the tough throws, what kinda person he is, can he play under center, among other things.

Also if Mayfield impresses them enough, it would allow them to not get in the bidding war for Cousins and load up the team in free agency around Baker.

If that's what your opinion leads you to believe.....ok go with that.

[ERoyal248]

If that's what your opinion leads you to believe.....ok go with that.

I think if we went QB at 5, we'd go with Baker. No opinion but i dont think the team would REQUEST to have Baker Mayfield on their team just for kicks and giggles.

[Ear2dastreets]

I think if we went QB at 5, we'd go with Baker. No opinion but i dont think the team would REQUEST to have Baker Mayfield on their team just for kicks and giggles.

We will see.

[Jonny_Quest]

Here is an article from 2015 showing stats for drafted players and success rate by position in the first round. They have a lot of charts showing 10 year, 25 year, and top 5 picks. I just posted one, but here is thier summary conclusions:

Safest top-10 picks: Offensive line, defensive back

A little more broad, but we could find only 22 busts out of 100 picks from the two samples at the offensive line and defensive back positions. That's compared to 46 Pro Bowlers.



Riskiest top-10 picks: Running back, wide receiver, defensive line

Running backs are twice as likely to bust than become Pro Bowlers, while receivers and defensive linemen are in the same range.



Biggest tossups in the top 10: Quarterback, linebacker

The gap between Pro Bowler and bust is smallest for these two positions within both the 25- and 10-year sample.



Safest top-five picks: Offensive line, defensive back

But wide receivers have also been a solid top-five pick in recent years.



Riskiest top-five picks: Running back, linebacker, defensive line

Linebacker is the only position that goes from safe in the first round to unsafe at the very top. Running backs and defensive linemen are risks across the first-round board.





All-Pro rates among top-5 picks, 25-year sample

Position... Drafted... Multiple All-Pros... All-Pro rate
OL...... 15 ......4...... 26.7%
WR/TE...... 9 2...... 22.2%
CB...... 9...... 2...... 22.2%
RB...... 18...... 3...... 16.7%
LB...... 15...... 2...... 13.3%
DL...... 27...... 3...... 11.1%
QB...... 27...... 1...... 3.7%
S...... 5...... 0...... 0.0%

Awesome post, dude.

I'm hoping we do something like:

5: Quenton Nelson
40: Kolton Miller
72: Luke Falk

[armedequation]

BRs mock this morning has us taking nelson. It also has the browns taking barkley first and fitz 4th

[atwaterandstir]

We have a huge lack of talent on the offense. We are likely to lose Sanders this season and DT next season. Our 2 best players on offense. Unless your thrilled with the in house options, taking Nelson this early almost forces us to spend big in FA or reach on a skill position next year.
If Cousins is signed, this plan makes far more sense because Nelson is a great player to pair with Bolles. If we end up with one of the other vets and minus Sanders(most likely scenario), I doubt Nelson is even considered......not at 5.

I think our first 2 picks should be used on OLine and a skill position. With as many as 5 QBs and 5 dbs going in the 1st plus several WRs in the mix we could have a really nice skill player or lineman fall to our early 2nd.

If we could end up with Cousins, Nelson and lets say Sony Michel in the 2nd, that is an incredible haul.

[montee2ball]

BRs mock this morning has us taking nelson. It also has the browns taking barkley first and fitz 4th

I’m warming up to it but not there yet. Sign Nate Solder to complete it then.

Bolles - Leary - Paradis - Nelson - Solder

[atwaterandstir]

Here's the average career length by position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comment...r_by_position/

Guess who's at the top? Offensive Lineman. Guess who's second to last? Running Back.

So let's look at the stats:

- Offensive linemen drafted in the first round are most likely to be Pro Bowl and least likely to bust
- Running backs drafted in the first round are least likely to be Pro Bowl and most likely to bust
- Offensive linemen have the longest average careers by position (outside of kickers and punters)
- Running backs have the second shortest careers by position
- Offensive linemen are much higher paid on average than running backs

Seems like Nelson is a much better pick than Barkley and is going to be a much higher value player.

That is just a career list.....here is a more accurate one regarding starters. They used the criteria of starting at least half of your games since being drafted.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/...draft-by-round
From the article.....
There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th

OL- the first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. Even the third and fourth aren't too shabby in comparison to success rates of other positions in the same rounds. (3rd - 40%, 4th - 29%).

We are looking for starters not bodies. This tells us that of all positions OL is the most likely position to find a starter after Rd 1. This also shows the best RBs are taken in Rd 1.

[Ear2dastreets]

Here's the average career length by position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comment...r_by_position/

Guess who's at the top? Offensive Lineman. Guess who's second to last? Running Back.

So let's look at the stats:

- Offensive linemen drafted in the first round are most likely to be Pro Bowl and least likely to bust
- Running backs drafted in the first round are least likely to be Pro Bowl and most likely to bust
- Offensive linemen have the longest average careers by position (outside of kickers and punters)
- Running backs have the second shortest careers by position


Seems like Nelson is a much better pick than Barkley and is going to be a much higher value player.

That's one website OPINION.....but ok buddy you are right....that website is the master.....heck let's just draft oline.. every year in the first no matter what...I think that will make all the Nelson very happy

[Jonny_Quest]

That's one website OPINION.....but ok buddy you are right....that website is the master.....heck let's just draft oline.. every year in the first no matter what...I think that will make all the Nelson very happy

Hahah. Look, dude, if we had a really stacked and deep team at all the key positions, I'd totally take a flyer on Barkley.

I still think it would be a better play to trade the spot to someone hot for Barkley and grab a couple of RB prospects in the later rounds. But Barkley would be a fun, exciting pick.

But we have a pretty solid stable of running backs and gaping holes in our O-Line.

So it just seems like Nelson is a much better pick for us at this point.