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I have been trying to wrap my head around for months the concept of drafting Nelson and trying to think objectively about a reason to draft him. Many know I am HIGHLY against it for MANY reasons, however I did come up with 1 reason and 1 reason only why Nelson should be the pick.
That reason is if John Elway doesnt trust his scouts or his own evaluations of the other prospects in the draft and isn't willing to take a shot at being wrong. There is no doubt to me that Nelson will be a good player, that has never been my argument. My problem has always been in the value of a guard. But if Elway is too scared to pull the trigger on another more valuable position and just wants to get a safe player then I could understand picking Nelson. Personally picking in the top 5 I don't want safe, I want impact and guards just dont provide that.
There is the possibility that Nelson has graded far and away higher than any other prospect, and he in fact trusts his or his scouts evaluation that he takes an OG that high.
This isn't just a "this guy has the highest floor" argument it's a "this guy has the highest floor and highest ceiling" argument.
What's the difference between ignorance and apathy?
I don't know and I don't care
I have been trying to wrap my head around for months the concept of drafting Nelson and trying to think objectively about a reason to draft him. Many know I am HIGHLY against it for MANY reasons, however I did come up with 1 reason and 1 reason only why Nelson should be the pick.
That reason is if John Elway doesnt trust his scouts or his own evaluations of the other prospects in the draft and isn't willing to take a shot at being wrong. There is no doubt to me that Nelson will be a good player, that has never been my argument. My problem has always been in the value of a guard. But if Elway is too scared to pull the trigger on another more valuable position and just wants to get a safe player then I could understand picking Nelson. Personally picking in the top 5 I don't want safe, I want impact and guards just dont provide that.
You have made it clear that you don't put much value in the position, and would never draft Nelson at #5.
Instead of trying to wrap your head around some scenario where Elway is scared and takes a guard because he "doesn't trust his scouts," maybe you should entertain the idea that some don't share your opinion that a guard can't be an impact player. We don't know where Elway stands on this. The upcoming draft may or may not provide clarity on this topic.
Well as the game has been shifting to more dominant interior DL, contracts from interior OL have trended upwards significantly as well. I dont view it as negatively affecting the cap moreso as not a positive, which to me is a huge difference.
Sure. I don't disagree with you. I'm saying that I understand the reluctance to draft a Guard at #5 from a financial point of view. Say you draft a QB like Wilson of the Seahawks and he becomes your starter quickly. Now you've got a guy playing for less than $10 MIL who probably has a market value of over $25 MIL. You get that all the way through his rookie contract. Say you draft a guy like Nelson and he becomes a starter. Now you've got a guy playing for less than $10 MIL who probably has a market value of less than $10 MIL. With Nelson you miss out on possible cap relief. I'd still like to draft Nelson but I do understand the reluctance from a financial perspective.
The bottom line is I would like Denver to draft him at #5 however the real question is will he even be there at #5 it could be the mere fact that he just may go higher than # 5. Maybe #2?
Sure. I don't disagree with you. I'm saying that I understand the reluctance to draft a Guard at #5 from a financial point of view. Say you draft a QB like Wilson of the Seahawks and he becomes your starter quickly. Now you've got a guy playing for less than $10 MIL who probably has a market value of over $25 MIL. You get that all the way through his rookie contract. Say you draft a guy like Nelson and he becomes a starter. Now you've got a guy playing for less than $10 MIL who probably has a market value of less than $10 MIL. With Nelson you miss out on possible cap relief. I'd still like to draft Nelson but I do understand the reluctance from a financial perspective.
If you can get a productive day 1 starter it helps tremendously. Currently, of the top 4 I'd say 2 could come in day 1 and have a shot at that mantra. I think Rosen and Mayfield have enough polish and the right skillset to do that. The other two require veterans to play in front, and then you're not getting as much relief anyways. Then you're left with the 5th year option, which just this year was about 20.5m for QBs which were picked up for Mariota and Winston. Neither of which I feel is worth that, but whatever. However, you're right if you snag a stud QB who takes over early, it's a big bonus. However, in this class I would say you're less likely to find that. If we had our pick of the liter I'd be on your side.
What's the difference between ignorance and apathy?
I don't know and I don't care
If you can get a productive day 1 starter it helps tremendously. Currently, of the top 4 I'd say 2 could come in day 1 and have a shot at that mantra. I think Rosen and Mayfield have enough polish and the right skillset to do that. The other two require veterans to play in front, and then you're not getting as much relief anyways. Then you're left with the 5th year option, which just this year was about 20.5m for QBs which were picked up for Mariota and Winston. Neither of which I feel is worth that, but whatever. However, you're right if you snag a stud QB who takes over early, it's a big bonus. However, in this class I would say you're less likely to find that. If we had our pick of the liter I'd be on your side.
Oh, no, just to clarify: I want Nelson. I wanted him last year at #20 but he stayed at Notre Dame for his Senior year. I wanted a FA QB this year and we have one.
What's laughable is the Broncos offensive line. Okay with the Chubb pick but I'm tired of seeing such a pathetic o line group. Hopefully it's addressed with the 2nd round pick.
What's laughable is the Broncos offensive line. Okay with the Chubb pick but I'm tired of seeing such a pathetic o line group. Hopefully it's addressed with the 2nd round pick.
Oline should improve a ton with a real QB back there. Would much rather see what is looks like now before sending another 1st round pick to beef it up. Oline will be fine without Nelson.
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