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History Says Don't Spend big on QB! / Offseason Dillema / Coaching

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  • History Says Don't Spend big on QB! / Offseason Dillema / Coaching

    The argument has been raging on here for weeks! Cousins! Mayfield! Darnold! etc.... History has a lot to say about this subject.

    Right now the cap is estimated to be: 178,000,000

    Lets assume for a minute Cousins gets EXACTLY what Garopollo got. That would be 15.5% of the estimated 2018 Cap. Mind you, we would likely need to do some cuts and re-structures to get to that point further weakening our roster.

    Going back to 1994 only 7 times in the last 24 years has a team with a QB over 10% of the cap won a SB.

    1994 Young 13.08% of cap
    1996 Favre 10.25 % of cap
    2001 Bledsoe 10.29% of cap
    2006 P Manning 10.36% of cap
    2011 E Manning 11.75% of cap
    2014 Brady 11.13% of cap
    2015 P Manning 12.21% of cap.

    Every one of those QB's is a hall of famer except Bledsoe. Cousins is NOT a HOF QB.

    This years eagles won the SB with 4.5% of the cap devoted to QB. Foles 1% Wentz 3.5%

    We will not succeed if we spend big $ on cousins. History has proven it and Analytics have proven it. Brady takes hometown deals and hes in the SB every year. Last year he was 8,8% of cap when he won the SB. Flacco was 6.6% of cap when he won it. He took a monster payday and baltimore has been in the dumpster since.

    Coaching:

    Despite being a fan of us looking into some of the Tier 2 options at QB, I just dont see it working. The Eagles won this year because they used analytics, the play calling was innovative and they had a deep roster. They were running a 7 man DL to keep people fresh all game. I do not have the faith in VJ or our other coaches to all of a sudden become innovative, or suddenly get the most out of all our players.

    2019:

    Thats not a typo. I think 2018 is going to be another tough year for the Broncos. I fully expect a 7-9 type season with VJ getting fired at the end of it. I would much prefer to have us go into our 2019 off season with a flexible cap, possibly a young QB that can still get groomed (drafted this year or next) and make our opening much more appealing. I am sorry, but nobody wants the head coaching gig of a team thats cap strapped, devoid of talent and a GM who is developing a rep as a coach killer. We need to consider the future as well as this year.

    Elways Future:

    John can't afford to miss on this year draft. Everyone knows it. The pressure is on. If he puts up another stinker of a season his seat is going to be incredibly warm. He's a smart enough guy to know that you can't gut the roster to sign a QB and then leave the cupboards bared around him. Thats exactly what washington had this year and it was a disaster. Elway has to make smart, safe, high % picks. I don't see him getting into a bidding war for a cousins. I can see him trading a 2nd or 3rd to try and get foles and his 7 million dollar salary this year and using the #5 pick to trade down or draft BPA. If we were able to acquire a foles type QB it leaves our cap intact and also gives us the option to franchise or extend at the end of this season should we want to retain them. It gives the new coach flexibility if we have one to get his own QB or stick with what we have. If elway takes a QB and whiffs on the #5 pick or god forbid trades up and misses its going to be an unmitigated disaster for this team. Any of the moves he would make would be magnified at the QB situation. He's already flunked on Lynch and Brock, what makes us think he knows what hes doing this time? He has to be smart.

    Roster

    Our roster is in need of a major overhaul as it is. The team we have today is far different than the one we had when we signed manning and went for it. We have lost a lot to FA and father time is starting to chew up the remaining assets we have. Talib, DT, Sanders, are reaching the end within a few years. The LB's are a mess. We still have gaping holes on our OL and I am not impressed with our WR corp or RB corp. I love CJA but hes JAG and I haven't seen anything from booker or henderson that makes me enthused. IF DT regresses again and sanders is done like some have suggested we are in big trouble. We still have no answer at the TE position either. Another year where we saw nothing out of that spot.

    In closing, dont ignore history. Don't think you are smarter than you are. Play it smart this off season and lets get back on track.

  • #2
    My biggest issue with signing Cousins would be that I don’t see him getting us over the hump to win a Super Bowl. He would probably get us in the playoffs the majority if not all the time he would be here but I just feel like he’d be a band aid to the problem rather than the true solution.

    I’d much rather sign Bridgewater (or McCown as a bridge) and draft a QB to develop behind him. He’s going to be a much cheaper option and If Bridgewater starts living up to his potential like he was beginning to before his knee injury then we have a great problem with hopefully 2 young QBs looking very good. If Bridgewater doesn’t look like the guy then we have a young QB who hopefully can develop enough to be the guy.

    At the end of the day though it all boils down to being able to draft well. If we can’t do that we’ll stay in a perpetual state of mediocrity.

    Comment


    • #3
      Does Brady and his team friendly deals throw a wrench into this? That's another 4 Super Bowls and another 2 or 3 appearances that he's been in. That's assuming he's always been paid under his worth, I'm not sure on the value back when he took off. I feel like he is a unique circumstance that's changes this a bit. He should be the highest paid QB, or close to. But then are his teams as successful with him eating more cap? I say yeah, but really don't know.

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      • #4
        SF just set the bar. Good luck on getting anyone that has played at least 5 games this season and won more than 5 games this season. $27,500,000 per year on a 5 year contract.

        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        My new favorite Bronco - KJ Hamler Guy plays inspiring football!.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by SMR81 View Post
          Does Brady and his team friendly deals throw a wrench into this? That's another 4 Super Bowls and another 2 or 3 appearances that he's been in. That's assuming he's always been paid under his worth, I'm not sure on the value back when he took off. I feel like he is a unique circumstance that's changes this a bit. He should be the highest paid QB, or close to. But then are his teams as successful with him eating more cap? I say yeah, but really don't know.
          Im convinced NE is successful because they have the best HC in history. An elite QB who doesn't try to break records with every contract. This allows the front office to add more talent around him and makes his teams better and deeper.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Gsam View Post
            Im convinced NE is successful because they have the best HC in history. An elite QB who doesn't try to break records with every contract. This allows the front office to add more talent around him and makes his teams better and deeper.
            NE is lucky... his money pays the babysitter... hers pays the bills.
            sigpic

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Gsam View Post
              Im convinced NE is successful because they have the best HC in history. An elite QB who doesn't try to break records with every contract. This allows the front office to add more talent around him and makes his teams better and deeper.
              Belichick is a genius. And Tom is as much a team player as they come. I don't necessarily like either, but respect both. BB is growing on me, he's a genius. When he retires it would be cool to hire him as a roster consultant, which would never happen.

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              • #8
                To the OP

                What was Eli on other SB? Was it same contract?

                Where was BIG Ben on his?

                What about Matt ryan hey should have won

                Going by the OP only way is to draft your QB

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by MHOC View Post
                  To the OP

                  What was Eli on other SB? Was it same contract?

                  Where was BIG Ben on his?

                  What about Matt ryan hey should have won

                  Going by the OP only way is to draft your QB
                  looking it up for you.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by MHOC View Post
                    To the OP

                    What was Eli on other SB? Was it same contract?

                    Where was BIG Ben on his?

                    What about Matt ryan hey should have won

                    Going by the OP only way is to draft your QB
                    Problem with that is we have to to hit on the QB hopes he develops quickly and then win within a 4 year window before his 5th year option kicks in.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by shawinkerpoppin View Post
                      Problem with that is we have to to hit on the QB hopes he develops quickly and then win within a 4 year window before his 5th year option kicks in.
                      And that's the big thing, since the new rules only Wilson and Wentz have had their teams win Super Bowls with them on entry level contracts. So many things have to go right, and be in place for a team to win the Super Bowl, the QB is just one piece. Denver and Seattle both won their Super Bowls with a bunch of defensive players on entry level contracts, that levels things out.

                      It's not a QB debate, it's a hit on draft picks and win early with them debate. Right now the Broncos D is old and in the O v D cap space realm overpaid. Denver hasn't had much luck trying to go cheap on O, probably time to try and balance it back out again, and hope to get some value from draft picks. That doesn't necessarily mean the 2018 draft only, guys from 2016 and 17 stepping up would be just as welcome, and could be a big piece.

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                      • #12
                        Soortstrac has Keenum getting 21mil a year
                        Kirk getting 25

                        Probably will go up after Jimmys new contract

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by MHOC View Post
                          Soortstrac has Keenum getting 21mil a year
                          Kirk getting 25

                          Probably will go up after Jimmys new contract
                          The per year thing is really misleading, because they try to average it, but it's not the NHL where the cap hit is the average and the contract is fully guaranteed. The more important numbers are the guarantees in the contract. You can keep the contract down, and the cap hit if you fully guarantee the contract.

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                          • #14
                            Very good post

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                            • #15
                              I agree with most of what you say! But I have been around business enough (and the NFL is a business) to know that leadership starts at the top. You can bring in a $40M per man and without a good head coach, it isn't going to help the situation very much, We can trade our next 5 first round draft choices to get the best college quarterback and Joseph will ruin him! Joseph might be a defensive genius but running a football team on the field, he is totally lost. Look at our last season. Oz looked pretty good in a game or two so Joseph replaced him with his favorite son, Siemian!
                              Sign a mid level QB and move on until Coach Joseph is terminated. Use this draft to build our team up (offensively and defensively) and be ready to get a quarterback AFTER they replace Joseph! BTW excellent post!

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