History Says Don't Spend big on QB! / Offseason Dillema / Coaching

[SMR81]

I agree with most of what you say! But I have been around business enough (and the NFL is a business) to know that leadership starts at the top. You can bring in a $40M per man and without a good head coach, it isn't going to help the situation very much, We can trade our next 5 first round draft choices to get the best college quarterback and Joseph will ruin him! Joseph might be a defensive genius but running a football team on the field, he is totally lost. Look at our last season. Oz looked pretty good in a game or two so Joseph replaced him with his favorite son, Siemian!
Sign a mid level QB and move on until Coach Joseph is terminated. Use this draft to build our team up (offensively and defensively) and be ready to get a quarterback AFTER they replace Joseph! BTW excellent post!

There really was no point in playing OZ, the season was lost and we know OZ will never be the guy. It's a bummer Lynch got hurt and Kelly was not healthy enough to be activated. There was a point where they wanted Trevor to be the guy, he just couldn't turn the corner. I would have liked to see Lynch more and or Kelly. I do agree that we are in trouble until we improve at the HC spot. Either Jospeh learned from this past year or is replaced.

[Gsam]

To the OP

What was Eli on other SB? Was it same contract?

Where was BIG Ben on his?

What about Matt ryan hey should have won

Going by the OP only way is to draft your QB

eli was 9.2% of the cap in 2007 when they won the SB.
Ben was 4.94 % of the cap in 2005 when he won it.

Ryan was 15.3% last year.

[Gsam]

Full list of salary / cap %

2017 Foles / Wentz 4.5% of cap
2016 Brady 8.87% of cap
2015 Manning 12.21 % of cap
2014 Brady 11.13% of cap
2013 Wilson .6%
2012 Flacco 6.63%
2011 Eli 11.75%
2010 Rodgers (uncapped year)
2009 Bree's 8.67%
2008 Ben 6.87%
2007 Eli 9.22%
2006 Peyton 10.36%
2005 Ben 4.94%
2004 Brady 6.26%
2003 Brady 4.43%
2002 Brad Johnson 9.57%
2001 Bledsoe 10.29%
2000 Banks 3.64%
1999 Green 5.46%
1998 Elway 5.01%
1997 Elway 5.17%
1996 Favre 10.25%
1995 Aikman 6.72%
1994 Young 13.08%

12 times since 94 teams have won the SB with a QB who has less than an 8% cap charge. Thats literally almost 50% of the time.

Only two times have teams with a QB over 12% of cap won a SB (Manning in 15 and Young in 94)

You have to have one of two things to win:

1) Cheap QB and spend the $ on solid FA adds and or locking up homegrown talent to prevent roster decay.
2) Stud young player on 1st contract and Market value QB.

Seeing how Denver does not fit into either category right now, I suggest we draft a QB or go for a tier 2 guy. If we spend 15% of our cap on a QB and don't have the corresponding studs on 1st year contract we are going nowhere.

[MHOC]

You can count Rodgers
Only two teams went over the cap and they got in trouble so Gb didn’t exploit that year

Major key is
Most teams have to pay the Qb
So you have to hit on the draft because less money to go spend in FA
If you don’t have a lot in your Qb either because of he is under first contract or you have a b/c type Qb you have can spend more

People think the saints struggled for those years because of Brees contract but it was more if they missed so badly in those drafts and didn’t have money to go buy the player in FA. They nailed the draft this year and it showed

You have to over pay at the QB position bottom line. And it’s not really because of making offers against other teams because if they are in any way at least good they get franchised
Teams gotta over pay even though they are only competing against their selves. But if you stay stubborn you end up like Was did and you get this once in a life time situation

Only reason we got Manning was he might not even be able to play at all or close to his level
Well we got lucky

[Diggs4]

Great post.....
Not that I needed another reason to NOT want to over pay for a middle tier QB..

[SaltySnipes]

My biggest issue with signing Cousins would be that I don’t see him getting us over the hump to win a Super Bowl. He would probably get us in the playoffs the majority if not all the time he would be here but I just feel like he’d be a band aid to the problem rather than the true solution.

I’d much rather sign Bridgewater (or McCown as a bridge) and draft a QB to develop behind him. He’s going to be a much cheaper option and If Bridgewater starts living up to his potential like he was beginning to before his knee injury then we have a great problem with hopefully 2 young QBs looking very good. If Bridgewater doesn’t look like the guy then we have a young QB who hopefully can develop enough to be the guy.

At the end of the day though it all boils down to being able to draft well. If we can’t do that we’ll stay in a perpetual state of mediocrity.

A noodle armed awful manning benched for Brock O won us a superbowl. You need to take a step back and realize we just need a capable QB.

[gerontion]

It certainly is a dilemma. Paying too much for one player can be detrimental to a team. However, your own list proves that having a franchise QB is the best way to contend for SBs. Another problem is the mid level QB market is awful. 15-17 million will get you a scrub like Glennon or Osweiler. Even a total journeyman like Keenum will probably get over 20 million.

[L.M.]

I agree with most of what you say! But I have been around business enough (and the NFL is a business) to know that leadership starts at the top. You can bring in a $40M per man and without a good head coach, it isn't going to help the situation very much, We can trade our next 5 first round draft choices to get the best college quarterback and Joseph will ruin him! Joseph might be a defensive genius but running a football team on the field, he is totally lost. Look at our last season. Oz looked pretty good in a game or two so Joseph replaced him with his favorite son, Siemian!
Sign a mid level QB and move on until Coach Joseph is terminated. Use this draft to build our team up (offensively and defensively) and be ready to get a quarterback AFTER they replace Joseph! BTW excellent post!

"Joseph might be a defensive genius"?

[TheAsianPA]

I still can't believe people want a cheap QB, especially after what we saw last season. Do you trust this FO to draft and develop a QB? From the sound of it, they don't trust themselves either. And you get what you pay for. You want Tyrod Taylor? Be prepared to get 3 points in the playoffs. And that's with an amazing run game and solid defense. Same thing with every bridge QB people have floated out there. You have to start by fixing the QB position, and then the rest of the problems can be addressed by building around him.

[EddieMac]

"Joseph might be a defensive genius"?

To be fair, I think he meant for the other team...

[CanDB]

I still can't believe people want a cheap QB, especially after what we saw last season. Do you trust this FO to draft and develop a QB? From the sound of it, they don't trust themselves either. And you get what you pay for. You want Tyrod Taylor? Be prepared to get 3 points in the playoffs. And that's with an amazing run game and solid defense. Same thing with every bridge QB people have floated out there. You have to start by fixing the QB position, and then the rest of the problems can be addressed by building around him.

I quoted you elsewhere, and I will again. I agree with you. Ironically, we are the team that "way overspent" on Manning, who came here and was outstanding for the most part, and still managed to help win the SB for us. In my opinion, thanks to some degree, that old, injured, EXPENSIVE dude could have easily got us to 3 SBs in just 4 years. No doubt in my mind we had a real shot in that fateful first year when Baltimore stole one from us.

So....if you ask me, a Broncos fan, I'd say that was a smart move and did not hurt us at all. In fact, as I recall, we were near the top of the league in O and D in at least one of those years.

And lets not get all "if Foles can do it" crazy, because what happened in this year's playoffs was unusual. Foles was a decent QB who just happened to hit stride, at the right time.

So yes I agree...try not to overpay. But if overpaying gets you back into the big picture, I am fine with it. And as far as I can tell, putting all your eggs on an unproven drafted QB is a bigger gamble....about 1/2 of them, even that high up in the draft, are not successful according to some studies.

But to Gsam....I applaud you for your effort and assessment in this thread. Folks do not have to agree with what people post, but we should all agree that good threads are valuable pieces of this board.:thumb:

[L.M.]

To be fair, I think he meant for the other team...

That fits, or maybe he mean't a different game, like Risk or Axis & Allies.

[L.M.]

This article at MHR would seem to support the OP and some other ideas expressed in this thread:

Here’s what every Super Bowl team has in common
Want to build a Super Bowl winner? Here’s what you need.

Not sure that I agree that this is the deciding factor though...

[HUMCALC]

The problem with overpaying on FAs is that you don't develop a QB that way, and that's a better way for long-term success. Teams with multiple rings develop QBs, they don't continuously buy them

[CanDB]

In some ways I feel a bit like the offseason before we signed Manning, albeit the situation seemed worse at that time, because we had little to look forward to from a QB perspective....whereas now we have FA and a top 5 draft pick. But I sense a need to turn things around, and that's why I am good with paying the man!

It matters not what I think, whatever Elway thinks is all that really matters on this one. If he covets Cousins or another FA QB, we will soon find out. And if he covets one of the college QBs, that too will be discovered within a few months. But here's what I feel down deep....Elway does not like losing, and I believe he wants to change that trend very soon.