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  • Trade Shane Ray???

    First, I'm not advocating for this I just came across this article that suggests it.......

    https://scout.com/nfl/denver-broncos...-Ray-114941818

    This time of year, every player and their dogs are thrown into the rumor mill. Some of the trade speculation is warranted, as in the case of Aqib Talib, while others contain more elements of fantasy than any basis in reality.

    One player whose name has rarely been mentioned as a bargaining chip in a possible trade is outside linebacker Shane Ray. Ray was Denver’s first round pick back in 2015.

    Although he battled through a knee injury that caused him to miss multiple games, he came back strong late in his rookie year and played a key role in the Denver Broncos voracious pass-rush rotation that culminated in a World Championship in Super Bowl 50.

    Ray was drafted to be the successor to DeMarcus Ware. Ware came back following the Super Bowl for one more injury-riddled year, which saw Ray play in his place often.

    In 2016, Ray’s second season, the future looked bright. Although he missed double-digit totals, he notched eight sacks, a career high, three of which came on the road against the formidable Andrew Whitworth in Cincinnati.

    Ray’s second season was a momentous step in the right direction, as he started eight games and managed to stay healthy through the full 16-game regular season. Alas, the Broncos missed the playoffs.

    But heading into year three, all eyes were on Ray to really turn the corner — until a wrist injury suffered during training camp derailed a season of promise and cost him eight games. Because of the nature of his injury, Ray was unable to lift weights as he usually would, which caused him to lose significant weight.

    I’ve been told that he dropped from his usual 245 pounds down to 225, which, as an edge defender, really hurt him, especially in the run game. Opposing teams would run straight at Ray when he was on the field, and there was naught he could do about it, contending with 300-plus pound tackles and guards at the point of attack.

    Ray’s pass rushing efficacy suffered some too. He finished with only one sack on the season, a career low. Pro Football Focus graded him cumulatively at 50.7, which for perspective, is putrid.

    While we know that Ray is a better overall player than where he finished ranking-wise, ending his third season as the 97th best edge defender, per PFF, is the opposite trajectory the Broncos were hoping to see from him.

    If you look at his pass rushing metrics, Ray earned a respectable 73.4 grade via PFF, but due to his 45.3 run defense mark, his cumulative grade suffered immensely. However, the silver lining to Ray’s disappointing 2017 campaign was that in 172 pass rushing snaps, he was able to generate some pressure on the QB — he just couldn’t get home.

    Unfortunately, that’s been the book on Shane Ray since entering the league in 2015. He can put pressure on the QB, and he has a phenomenal motor, but he’s unable to win his one-on-one matchups consistently to get the sacks.

    Now, the Broncos are faced with a big decision on Ray. The team has until May to exercise his fifth-year option. As a former first-rounder, the Broncos have the prerogative to extend his rookie contract from four years to five, but doing so would come at a cost.

    Ray’s 2018 salary is $1.678 million, and factoring in his signing bonus and other roster bonuses, he’ll count for $2.9 million against Denver’s cap. If the Broncos exercise the fifth-year option, it is estimated to cost them between $9.1M to $9.3M for 2019.

    In other words, the Broncos would have to pay Ray like one of the top pass rushers in the NFL, even though he hasn’t produced like one. If John Elway was unwilling to make Sylvester Williams one of the highest paid defensive tackles by picking up his fifth-year option, why would he do so with Shane Ray?

    You might answer that by supposing that pass rushers are a more premium position, and in that sense, you’d be right. But unlike Bradley Roby, who’ll be playing on his fifth-year option in 2018, the production that would justify the cost for Ray simply hasn’t been there.

    That doesn’t mean Ray is a bust and it doesn’t mean he can’t improve. He most certainly can. It simply means that from a dollars-and-cents perspective, the Broncos have more to lose than gain by optioning Ray before May.

    Heading into a contract year, Ray’s biggest problem has been the injury bug. When he’s managed to stay healthy, he’s been an above average edge defender.

    However, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior and with that maxim in mind, the Broncos would be wise to add Shane Ray to the list of players heading for the trading block this spring.

    Shaquil Barrett is set to be a restricted free agent, and I would expect Denver to tender him at the second round level. Tendering him would allow the Broncos to hold onto Barrett for one more year at least, which would likely benefit the team more in the short-term than pinning additional hopes on Shane Ray.

    Ray’s age and relative experience and speed-rushing skill-set make him an attractive bargaining chip for NFL teams devoid of edge rushing talent. Knowing how unlikely it is that Denver will pick up his fifth-year option, GM John Elway would be wise to capitalize on the opportunity 2018 will bring to trade Ray away, because after 2018, Ray will be an unrestricted free agent.

    Considering that Denver holds the fifth overall pick, and will be selecting early in each round, this NFL Draft class offers the team the opportunity to go younger and cheaper on the edge. Denver should keep Shaq Barrett and bring in some rookie talent for depth behind he and Von Miller.
    Last edited by JvDub95; 02-10-2018, 01:12 PM.

  • #2
    "In 2016, Ray’s second season, the future looked bright. Although he missed double-digit totals, he notched eight sacks, a career high, three of which came on the road against the formidable Andrew Whitworth in Cincinnati."

    Statistics are so deceiving, and it annoys me to see people who write these articles, people who have no idea about football, make things up, spout off complete assumptions, and push misinformation. The above quote caught my eye as something which I thought didn't sound right, I knew Whitworth wouldn't of gotten beaten up by someone like Ray, and I went back and quickly watched the 3 plays, and he didn't at all.

    The first sack he recorded was against a backup tackle who Ray easily ran over, it was not Andrew Whitworth. The second sack he was completely blocked out of the play by Whitworth, Dalton just held the ball and Miller wrecked the play, and Ray got an easy clean up sack. The last sack, Ray again was completely blocked out of the play against Whitworth, Dalton stepped up to run through the front of the pocket and Ray recorded a sack for zero yards lost. Whitworth dominated the matchup, Ray benefited from his teammates creating pressure, and going up against a backup tackle. If this is Rays best moment in his best season, I think that says it all in terms of what a disappointment he has been.

    Shane Ray is entering the 4th year of his contract, and the Broncos will have to make a decision on whether to pickup his 5th year option this season. The 5th year option would pay Ray almost 9 million dollars in 2019, so unless Ray drastically improves, I would imagine this is his last year in a Denver Broncos uniform.

    I am not a huge fan of Shane Ray, he is a rotational player, and an average one at that. Ray is very overrated around here, and I don't see him having much trade value at this point due to his play, and also due to his contract situation. I think he could be a filler piece in a trade at best, someone thrown in to push a deal over the top, but by himself, I can't see him netting Denver anymore then a 5th rounder, he just isn't that good.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Johnny Football View Post
      "In 2016, Ray’s second season, the future looked bright. Although he missed double-digit totals, he notched eight sacks, a career high, three of which came on the road against the formidable Andrew Whitworth in Cincinnati."

      Statistics are so deceiving, and it annoys me to see people who write these articles, people who have no idea about football, make things up, spout off complete assumptions, and push misinformation. The above quote caught my eye as something which I thought didn't sound right, I knew Whitworth wouldn't of gotten beaten up by someone like Ray, and I went back and quickly watched the 3 plays, and he didn't at all.

      The first sack he recorded was against a backup tackle who Ray easily ran over, it was not Andrew Whitworth. The second sack he was completely blocked out of the play by Whitworth, Dalton just held the ball and Miller wrecked the play, and Ray got an easy clean up sack. The last sack, Ray again was completely blocked out of the play against Whitworth, Dalton stepped up to run through the front of the pocket and Ray recorded a sack for zero yards lost. Whitworth dominated the matchup, Ray benefited from his teammates creating pressure, and going up against a backup tackle. If this is Rays best moment in his best season, I think that says it all in terms of what a disappointment he has been.

      Shane Ray is entering the 4th year of his contract, and the Broncos will have to make a decision on whether to pickup his 5th year option this season. The 5th year option would pay Ray almost 9 million dollars in 2019, so unless Ray drastically improves, I would imagine this is his last year in a Denver Broncos uniform.

      I am not a huge fan of Shane Ray, he is a rotational player, and an average one at that. Ray is very overrated around here, and I don't see him having much trade value at this point due to his play, and also due to his contract situation. I think he could be a filler piece in a trade at best, someone thrown in to push a deal over the top, but by himself, I can't see him netting Denver anymore then a 5th rounder, he just isn't that good.
      I can see a team giving more than just a 5th, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2nd out of him. He is still young and hasn't even reached his prime yet. I would offer our 2nd and Ray to move back into the 1st at some point if there was a player targeted that they knew wouldn't make it back to them.

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      • #4
        His path has reminded me of Cody Latimer's..... High hopes, always waiting for the production to come.

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        • #5
          If Ray is traded for a 2nd round pick, I'll eat my hat. I imagine all fanbases overrate their own players, but this fanbase from what I have seen really does. Fans also never factor in contract situations, that is why you rarely ever see talented players who have produced, and are highly regarded around the league traded for high picks. It's just not smart to give up high picks and take on large salaries at the same time, especially expiring contracts. Hell, Sheldon Richardson struggled to get a 2nd round pick in return when he was traded, Shane Ray has no where near the value of him. I just don't think any team, anywhere is willing to give up a 2nd rounder for Ray, you are living in a fantasy land.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Johnny Football View Post
            If Ray is traded for a 2nd round pick, I'll eat my hat. I imagine all fanbases overrate their own players, but this fanbase from what I have seen really does. Fans also never factor in contract situations, that is why you rarely ever see talented players who have produced, and are highly regarded around the league traded for high picks. It's just not smart to give up high picks and take on large salaries at the same time, especially expiring contracts. Hell, Sheldon Richardson struggled to get a 2nd round pick in return when he was traded, Shane Ray has no where near the value of him. I just don't think any team, anywhere is willing to give up a 2nd rounder for Ray, you are living in a fantasy land.
            Ray has had success, then got injured. Teams will look at that and determine if they feel he is on the upward trend or peaked. I believe he can be a 10 or 15 sack guy and I think other teams will view him that way also. Before his injury he appeared to be heading that direction.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Diggs4 View Post
              His path has reminded me of Cody Latimer's..... High hopes, always waiting for the production to come.
              Not sure how they compare. Shane has had ups and downs as a starter or key role player. Cody hasn’t been able to get onto the field for the majority of his time here aside from special teams. Not even close to the same.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Johnny Football View Post
                If Ray is traded for a 2nd round pick, I'll eat my hat. I imagine all fanbases overrate their own players, but this fanbase from what I have seen really does. Fans also never factor in contract situations, that is why you rarely ever see talented players who have produced, and are highly regarded around the league traded for high picks. It's just not smart to give up high picks and take on large salaries at the same time, especially expiring contracts. Hell, Sheldon Richardson struggled to get a 2nd round pick in return when he was traded, Shane Ray has no where near the value of him. I just don't think any team, anywhere is willing to give up a 2nd rounder for Ray, you are living in a fantasy land.
                I think Richardson struggle to get trade value because of his attitude and his demand to be one of the highest paid defenders

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by JvDub95 View Post
                  Ray has had success, then got injured. Teams will look at that and determine if they feel he is on the upward trend or peaked. I believe he can be a 10 or 15 sack guy and I think other teams will view him that way also. Before his injury he appeared to be heading that direction.
                  Ray for a 2nd round pick, now a 15 sack a season guy ? Based upon what ? As I pointed out, Shane Rays best statistical game of his career was where he recorded 3 sacks, the game that this blogger here referenced as some sort of evidence to show how good Shane Ray has been, yet was completely off-base with what he said. Now, despite 2 of them 3 sacks against the Bengals being clean up coverage sacks, I was interested to see how he recorded the other 5 sacks on the season, the season which you appear to be using as a bases to say he could potentially be a 15 sack per season guy, which by the way, would of made Ray the 2nd leading sacker in the NFL in 2017.

                  0.5 Sacks against Atlanta: Shane Ray gets stonewalled attempting to speed rush the tackle getting no pressure at all. Shane Ray then gets put on his ass as the guard comes over to help on the block. By this time Von Miller created pressure and Matt Ryan looped out the back of the pocket where Shane Ray got sat down again, this time by the tackle, and Ray literally crawled to jump on the pile and get credited with half of a sack.

                  0.5 Sacks against San Diego: Shane Ray got a good initial inside rush on the tackle, but the tackle recovered giving Rivers time to step back and find space to throw. Von Miller and Jared Crick then got there hitting Rivers forcing him to jump forward right into Ray who received credit for half a sack. Ray did do a great job of creating the initial pressure though.

                  1.0 Sacks against Kansas City: This sack was the definition of a coverage sack. Shane Ray created not one bit of pressure, the coverage down field was good, and Alex Smith just so happened to run outside of the pocket towards Ray, who had actually given up contain, but then recovered to just chase down the play to get a sack for a 3 yard loss.

                  1.0 Sacks against Tennessee: Shane Ray was lined up in a stand up 4 technique here over the guard. Ray then ran an inside stunt with Derek Wolfe and went literally untouched by an offensive lineman to get the sack. Completely a scheme sack, a sack which anyone who was placed in that position on that play could of made.

                  1.0 Sacks against New England: Finally, Shane Ray earned himself the sack. Again this time Shane Ray was lined up over the guard, was isolated one on one with him, and just beat him with his quickness to the inside wrapping up Brady for the sack.This is the first sack from the 2016 season where he showed some sort of ability as a pass rusher to actually record the sack statistic.

                  1.0 Sacks against Oakland: Von Miller gifts Shane Ray the sack here, absolutely flying up the field forcing the quarterback to step up, and Shane Ray stepped through a wide open gate between the tackle and tight end to get the sack fumble. This again was a clean up job, but a good play by Ray to finish off the play and create his sole career turnover.

                  Don't get me wrong, sacks are not the be all and end all when it comes to pass rushing, I will take consistent pressure from a defender all day over a guy who will occasionally get a pressure, and luck out by walking into a sack, getting a coverage sack, or cleaning up a broken play registering a sack. The only problem is, Ray is not the one creating these pressures, opening up opportunities for his teammates, or effecting the game with his pass rush, Shane Ray is the clean up guy. If we want to talk about his sack totals, which the blogger on this article was, like you have been, and use these past numbers to project what they could be, then lets try to be realistic and have an understanding of what he is actually doing on the field, which more often then not consists of getting bullied in the run game, and not consistently getting pressures, he is an average player.

                  Originally posted by Murph2432 View Post
                  I think Richardson struggle to get trade value because of his attitude and his demand to be one of the highest paid defenders
                  I am sure that contributed to that situation. But do you think a team would be willing to part with a 2nd round pick for Shane Ray ? I encourage you to look at the recent history of player for pick trades, and look at the quality of players who go for much less then 2nd round picks. Just a few examples from last season:

                  - Jay Ajaya, a 1200 yard rusher in 2016, and a 500 yard player in 7 games in 2017, was traded for a 4th round pick.

                  - Kelvin Benjamin, 1900 yards and 16 touchdown receptions in his first 2 NFL seasons, traded for a 3rd round pick.

                  - Jimmy Garoppolo, a guy everyone perceived as a future franchise quarterback, in a quarterback desperate league, traded for a 2nd round pick.

                  - Duane Brown, considered arguably the best right tackle in the game, traded along with a 5th rounder, for a 3rd rounder, and a 2nd rounder.

                  - Marcell Dareus, a guy who early in his career established himself as a top defensive tackle, before falling off a little, traded for a 5th round pick at 27 years of age

                  If you think Shane Ray has the reputation around the league, or is even in the same level of impact rate of any of these guys listed above, this conversation is pointless. Shane Ray may have some value, however, I think that hoping for a 2nd round pick in exchange for him is about as smart as the blogger in this initial article saying that Ray went into Cincinnati and dominated Andrew Whitworth, a 2nd round pick for Ray is not happening.

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                  • #10
                    Denver's coaching and training staff has an idea of his health and value to the D. 2018 is the fourth year of his rookie deal, so they would have the fifth year option. I doubt if a draft pick for Shane Ray would produce a more valuable player.
                    "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

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                    • #11
                      I wouldn't give up on Ray just yet.

                      Hell he should've been place on IR for the season because he was injured all of last season even though he tried to come back and play.

                      Hopefully he comes back 100% and shows his true worth for us next season.

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                      • #12
                        225lbs for a linebacker? No wonder he's so awful against the run. He's a feather out there.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Peerless View Post
                          225lbs for a linebacker? No wonder he's so awful against the run. He's a feather out there.
                          Originally posted by Mel B. View Post
                          https://www.denverpost.com/2017/12/1...serve-broncos/

                          ...Adding to his frustrations this season was the fact that he couldn’t do much upper-body training because of the injury. As a result, his usual playing weight dropped from about 240 pounds to 225.

                          “With the screws and everything, I can start my recovery process and getting the strength back in my hand,” Ray said. “Once I get the stitches and all of that stuff out, I can actually start lifting weights. I haven’t lifted weights since the surgery happened. You can imagine how tough it is to play injured, not being able to work out and all of that stuff. It’s been a battle, but I haven’t complained and I haven’t said anything. I just come in and work. It’s tough. It’s football, things happen and you just have to deal with things accordingly.”

                          Check out an earlier thread about Ray's injury:

                          https://forums.denverbroncos.com/sho...hane-Ray-on-IR

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                          • #14
                            Why would we attempt to trade Ray when his trade value will be lower than it ever has been and he is still on his rookie contract?
                            :lombardi:2019 Adopt-A-Bronco: Dr. Dre'Mont Jones
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Houshmazode View Post
                              Why would we attempt to trade Ray when his trade value will be lower than it ever has been and he is still on his rookie contract?
                              Because now apparently we should trade everyone off the team..
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