Drafting a QB, Who I think we should be looking at and a few other tidbits

[Rich_C]

There have been MANY posts and comments on these boards about individual players and why we should try to nab them at #5. There does seem to be this one major consensus about the fact that we should nab a QB with the #5 overall pick. Since my opinion differs from what I have seen the norm be here I thought I'd start a healthy discussion on the topic. I have a list of NFL drafts and all of the first rounds QB's taken from 2007 on....

2007
1: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders
22: Brady Quinn, Browns

2008
3: Matt Ryan, Falcons
18: Joe Flacco, Ravens

2009
1: Matthew Stafford, Lions
5: Mark Sanchez, Jets
17: Josh Freeman, Buccaneers

2010
1: Sam Bradford, Rams
25: Tim Tebow, Broncos

2011
1: Cam Newton, Panthers
8: Jake Locker, Titans
10: Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
12: Christian Ponder, Vikings

2012
1: Andrew Luck, Colts
2: Robert Griffin III, Redskins
8: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
22: Brandon Weeden, Browns

2013
16: EJ Manuel, Bills

2014
3: Blake Bortles, Jaguars
22: Johnny Manziel, Browns
32: Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

2015
1: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
2: Marcus Mariota, Titans

2016
1: Jared Goff, Rams
2: Carson Wentz, Eagles
26: Paxton Lynch, Broncos


Ultimately the intent of drafting a QB in round 1 is to have them become "your guy". The last draft that produced three QBs in round 1 which would qualify for THAT type of QB play was in 2004 when we saw Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and J.P. Losman all taken in the 1st round and three of the 4 QBs have ended up being stellar by all accounts for their respective franchises. Another interesting piece right now is that I have been unable to find a draft where three QB's have been take at 1,2 & 3 in the draft nor have I been able to find a draft where 4 QB's have been taken in the top 5. I suppose when you look back at these drafts the closest 'proxy' to having 4 QBs taken in round 1 and having seen each start would be likely 2012....even then those starters on most of those teams did not last very long.

So now that we've seen that generally speaking in history past QB1 & QB2 we generally don't see success. Why would we not look to leverage the excitement of others and trade back to try and obtain additional really high draft picks OR trade up ourselves to #2. History would dictate is the more likely spot you're going to find a long-term QB.

Lastly when I look at the teams who have won or keep winning into the post season there are only 2 models which I have seen work. The first is to draft a QB and ride out their rookie deal and win as many SBs as you can. Put really good pieces around him and hope you can cash in. The second is you NEEED a top 5 QB who elevates just about every player on the roster and then despite the fact that your top 5 QB might command a massive salary their play is just so good you can win it all anyway. I have yet to find a team who like the Vikings have ran out and paid top dollar for a mid-tier QB stats-wise and won it all.

So now that my rant on that is over I'd like to see us approach the draft differently then we have in the past:

In round 1 i'd like us to go after Chubb, Nelson or CB-Ward/Jackson or Fitzpatrick. I'd then want us to trade back into the mid-back end of the 1st to grab one of Da'Ron Payne, Will Hernandez, Arden Key, Orlando Brown or Mike Gesicki. We have tried the model of drafting quantity these past 2-3 years and only a select few of those picks have done much for us. I'd like to see us modify our draft strategy and go for quality to try and really bolster our roster and do so for a few years to come. In my opinion we had three really substantial issues last season: Edge Pass protection (particularly at the RT position), Pass Rush (Particularly up the middle) & Pass protection in the second level of the defense. As an example if we were to get Chubb & Da'Ron then IMO we have gotten far better in the interior and that should help us tremendously going forward. alternatively If we went Chubb & Brown then I think we'd be in good shape as well.

Thoughts and comments - always welcome.

[shawinkerpoppin]

2011 sticks out the most if you look at who was picked inbetween those QBs pretty much every team that didn’t go QB after the #1 was taken hit on thier player. I think this draft is about that deep on the top end that asking as we don’t reach on a QB we could very well end up with a pro bowl or even all pro level talent.

[Rich_C]

2011 sticks out the most if you look at who was picked inbetween those QBs pretty much every team that didn’t go QB after the #1 was taken hit on thier player. I think this draft is about that deep on the top end that asking as we don’t reach on a QB we could very well end up with a pro bowl or even all pro level talent.

Right I agree with that the top end of this draft is RIDDLED with talent and as you've pointed out could be as deep and could potentially be as successful as the 2011 draft. The one thing I really wanted to point out is that it has been 13 years now (going on 14) and we have not found another draft class like the one in 2004 with Eli, Rivers and Big Ben. Even in that draft class where 4 QB were taken in round 1 only three of them worked out and they were the top three taken. Since then there have been multiple other years when three have been taken in round 1 and in those years the leagues and those respective teams are lucky if ONE works out let alone two or three. So my point is that if we stay at 5 - IMO we are likely better off going after one of the top guys at the OTHER positions instead as we have a higher likelihood of hitting on a top tier player then if we are the 2nd or third team to target a QB. I will re-phrase. since I was only able to go back to 2004 I will hedge the comment a bit - if this draft produces 4 QBs who are starters and can do so longer term then this draft could do down as the best QB draft EVER. that all being said history and stats would dictate that is not the case and that WILL not happen...period.

[lvbronx]

You have to go back to 1971 to find QBs taken 1-2-3...

Jim Plunkett
Archie Manning
Dan Pastorini

Plunkett started slow but late in his career won a couple of Super Bowls with the Raiders. I thought Archie was about as good as he could be with no help on one of the worst teams in history. Pastorini was a solid, but not great QB IMO and had a very strong arm.

This doesn't mean there will be, or won't be, 3 good QBs this year...just posting some history.

[Rich_C]

You have to go back to 1971 to find QBs taken 1-2-3...

Jim Plunkett
Archie Manning
Dan Pastorini

Plunkett started slow but late in his career won a couple of Super Bowls with the Raiders. I thought Archie was about as good as he could be with no help on one of the worst teams in history. Pastorini was a solid, but not great QB IMO and had a very strong arm.

This doesn't mean there will be, or won't be, 3 good QBs this year...just posting some history.

Awesome...Love this kid of stuff. So it has been 47 years since QBs have been drafted 1-2-3 and that all three have had some success to speak of. SO with the likelihood of at least 2-3 QB's going in the top 4 I still maintain that the stats are not in our favor to have the QB we'd select as the 4th QB off the board or perhaps the 3rd QB off the board would work out at all. Having to go back 47 years to find a scenario where that worked out is not promising.....

Thanks for those stats...

[JvDub95]

History is constantly being re-written. What if? This draft was the 1st draft in history where all top options at QB turned out to be pro bowlers. Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield all ended up in the right places and managed to have success. Elway said he wasn't done swinging, I fully expect the 1st pick to be a QB still. Visually we see things playing out in a way that makes more sense for a non QB pick, but, there is a little something in all of us that still thinks QB is the target.

[beastlyskronk]

After signing Keenum I’d rather see us take a chance on a QB like Lauletta or Jackson if Rosen isn’t there at 5

[Papa-pwn]

After sending 7(Elway, VJ, Kubes, Musgrave, random scouts) reps to Mayfield's pro day and 5(Elway, VJ, Kubes, scouts) to Rosen's, none are at Darnold's today and none are going to Allen's on Friday apparently either.

Interesting.

[JvDub95]

After sending 7(Elway, VJ, Kubes, Musgrave, random scouts) reps to Mayfield's pro day and 5(Elway, VJ, Kubes, scouts) to Rosen's, none are at Darnold's today and none are going to Allen's on Friday apparently either.

Interesting.

I'm watching Darnolds pro day workout and they said there are representatives from all 32 teams on site. Granted Elway, VJ or Kubes are not there they at least do have scouts there.

on a side note.....

Darnold does look awfully impressive!! He just looks smooth in his motions, I have no doubt he will be a Brown....

[fraguela09]

You can’t take 1 of these 4-5 QBs in this draft ahead of Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, Fitz, and James. Those guys are too good. Sure, all 4-5 guys have potential and hope... but for the 1 team that hits in their lottery ticket they’ll be 3-4 who go bust.

And... to pass on a 7-10 year starter and perennial All Pro for a bust is a franchise-killer.

Now, say CLE and NYg go Barkley and Chubb or Nelson in the first 2 picks... Jets grab Rosen or Darnold and CLE goes Fitz at 4... we’ll, maybe you take Rosen...

Otherwise, just grab a Nelson, Barkley, Chubb, James or fitz and plug-n-play rookie stud and be content.

No sense swinging for fences when you can line a solid double in the gap.

[CanDB]

I'm watching Darnolds pro day workout and they said there are representatives from all 32 teams on site. Granted Elway, VJ or Kubes are not there they at least do have scouts there.

on a side note.....

Darnold does look awfully impressive!! He just looks smooth in his motions, I have no doubt he will be a Brown....

I just missed it, but heard positives from The NFL N gang. Did he handle the rain as good as expected? In a way, it's another plus if so, because some may knock a QB's ability if mostly gauged in the often nice weather in Cali. So if he had a good day in the rain, it will probably seal the deal for most Execs.

And yes....they said reps from all teams were there.

[Papa-pwn]

https://twitter.com/insidetroy/status/976510214525480960?s=21

Brown's owner Jimmy Haslam watching Sam Darnold's pro day with Darnold's parents. Interesting

[JvDub95]

You can’t take 1 of these 4-5 QBs in this draft ahead of Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, Fitz, and James. Those guys are too good. Sure, all 4-5 guys have potential and hope... but for the 1 team that hits in their lottery ticket they’ll be 3-4 who go bust.

And... to pass on a 7-10 year starter and perennial All Pro for a bust is a franchise-killer.

Now, say CLE and NYg go Barkley and Chubb or Nelson in the first 2 picks... Jets grab Rosen or Darnold and CLE goes Fitz at 4... we’ll, maybe you take Rosen...

Otherwise, just grab a Nelson, Barkley, Chubb, James or fitz and plug-n-play rookie stud and be content.

No sense swinging for fences when you can line a solid double in the gap.

By that theory we should never draft a quarterback then. There are always going to be better players per different positions

[Rich_C]

History is constantly being re-written. What if? This draft was the 1st draft in history where all top options at QB turned out to be pro bowlers. Darnold, Rosen, Allen and Mayfield all ended up in the right places and managed to have success. Elway said he wasn't done swinging, I fully expect the 1st pick to be a QB still. Visually we see things playing out in a way that makes more sense for a non QB pick, but, there is a little something in all of us that still thinks QB is the target.

In a team that finished 5-11 there is more than a little something in me that see's more than one hole on our team from last year. As an avid fan and regular poster here I'd also like to see one of our 1st rounders play for our team at a high level. Frankly we need it.

After sending 7(Elway, VJ, Kubes, Musgrave, random scouts) reps to Mayfield's pro day and 5(Elway, VJ, Kubes, scouts) to Rosen's, none are at Darnold's today and none are going to Allen's on Friday apparently either.

Interesting.

I agree but I can only hope personally that it means we will not see a Qb take in round 1 at 5 by us.

[JvDub95]

I just missed it, but heard positives from The NFL N gang. Did he handle the rain as good as expected? In a way, it's another plus if so, because some may knock a QB's ability if mostly gauged in the often nice weather in Cali. So if he had a good day in the rain, it will probably seal the deal for most Execs.

And yes....they said reps from all teams were there.

He did almost fumble a snap in the rain but never missed a throw....