According to overthecap.com we will have about 38 mil in cap space to begin 2019 Free Agency prior to any signings.
Some potential cuts to look out for.
Player: Cap Savings if cut (Dead Cap Hit)
Case Keenum: 11 mil (10 mil)
Keenum hasn't played well enough to be our QB solution. I think it's clear we are going to draft a QB early, and I would count this as not likely to happen, but we could cut ties with Keenum and simply start fresh. Plus if a new coach comes in they may want a completely new QB room to work with. If Keenum stays he could be useful as a stop gap while whoever we draft gets up to speed.
Cut Likelihood: 15%
Emmanuel Sanders: 10.25 mil (2.68 mil)
Sanders has been a great player for us, but coming off an injury, plus with young players at the position, plus with us probably in a rebuilding mode are three factors that could combine to lead us releasing Sanders. If we feel good about him coming back from his injury I think there's still a good chance he remains, but an extra 10 mil in cap space could be beneficial based on what we end up trying to do.
Cut Likelihood: 40%
Derek Wolfe: 8.55 mil (2.37 mil)
Similar situation to Sanders except not coming off a major injury. I don't count this being likely to happen, but because of the potential cap savings it could be an option depending on how aggressive we want to be in FA.
Cut Likelihood: 5%
Ronald Leary: 7.46 mil (1.75 mil)
I feel like we will really re-tool the Oline, but this time through the draft. Leary has only played 17 games in the past 2 seasons for us.
Cut Likelihood: 90%
Brandon Marshall: 5 mil (4 mil)
Marshall hasn't looked like his old self in awhile, I think we look elsewhere to find a partner for Davis in the middle
Cut Likelihood: 85%
Darian Stewart: 3.6 mil (2.8 mil)
Stewart doesn't have the range to be a starting quality safety for us anymore. I think we try to open up an opportunity for Parks to step in and start.
Cut Likelihood: 90%
Andre Holmes: 1.4 mil (0 mil)
We picked up Holmes when Sanders went down and while there's a chance he could be a decent option for us I don't think it's likely he stays with us next year.
Cut Likelihood: 95%
So with the cuts I've outlined as very likely (Leary, Marshall, Stewart, Holmes), we would have about 55-56 mil in cap space to work with.
Our current 2019 Unrestricted Free Agents are:
Jared Veldheer
Domata Peko
Tramaine Brock
Matt Paradis
Shaquil Barrett
Shane Ray
Billy Turner
Bradley Roby
Zach Kerr
Jamar Taylor
Gino Gradkowski
Jeff Heuerman
Max Garcia
Our Current 2019 Restricted Free Agents are:
Shelby Harris
Deiontrez Mount
Casey Kreiter
Jordan Taylor
Kevin Hogan
ERFA:
Brian Parker
Joseph Jones
Jerrol Garcia-Williams
Elijah Wilkinson
Matt LaCosse
Tim Patrick
Dymonte Thomas
From my view, finding a way to keep Shelby Harris and Shaq Barrett will be key. Harris' case is more straightforward. As a RFA we can tender him. My guess is we give him a second round tender which would give him a contract of 3.1 mil. Barrett will be tricky. I'm guessing we would offer him something along the lines of a 3 year 12 mil contract. However if a team is willing to give him a starting job and a contract to reflect that I don't think we would be able to match it. He could end up getting a 4 year 30 mil contract in that scenario.
Another big question will be Roby. I'm not sure what his asking price would be to re-sign with us. He hasn't been anywhere near an elite corner, granted it's his first year as a full time starter so maybe he still can grow into a top level corner, but if we sign him I don't think he's getting much more than 8 mil per season from us. It's possible we could give him a 1 year prove it deal for about 7 mil if he wants to establish himself as an elite corner before trying to get a long term deal in 2020.
The decision on Paradis will largely be based on health. But if we feel good about his health, that means everyone else will as well and he could be one of the top FA centers on the market. It would likely take about a 9 mil per year contract to get him re-signed if that's the case. We might decide to go for a cheaper option or go to the draft to find a center.
So assuming Harris, Barrett, Roby, and Paradis are back with us at the values I've listed, and with the likely cuts we'd be back at 32 mil in cap space to work with in Free Agency.
Some potential cuts to look out for.
Player: Cap Savings if cut (Dead Cap Hit)
Case Keenum: 11 mil (10 mil)
Keenum hasn't played well enough to be our QB solution. I think it's clear we are going to draft a QB early, and I would count this as not likely to happen, but we could cut ties with Keenum and simply start fresh. Plus if a new coach comes in they may want a completely new QB room to work with. If Keenum stays he could be useful as a stop gap while whoever we draft gets up to speed.
Cut Likelihood: 15%
Emmanuel Sanders: 10.25 mil (2.68 mil)
Sanders has been a great player for us, but coming off an injury, plus with young players at the position, plus with us probably in a rebuilding mode are three factors that could combine to lead us releasing Sanders. If we feel good about him coming back from his injury I think there's still a good chance he remains, but an extra 10 mil in cap space could be beneficial based on what we end up trying to do.
Cut Likelihood: 40%
Derek Wolfe: 8.55 mil (2.37 mil)
Similar situation to Sanders except not coming off a major injury. I don't count this being likely to happen, but because of the potential cap savings it could be an option depending on how aggressive we want to be in FA.
Cut Likelihood: 5%
Ronald Leary: 7.46 mil (1.75 mil)
I feel like we will really re-tool the Oline, but this time through the draft. Leary has only played 17 games in the past 2 seasons for us.
Cut Likelihood: 90%
Brandon Marshall: 5 mil (4 mil)
Marshall hasn't looked like his old self in awhile, I think we look elsewhere to find a partner for Davis in the middle
Cut Likelihood: 85%
Darian Stewart: 3.6 mil (2.8 mil)
Stewart doesn't have the range to be a starting quality safety for us anymore. I think we try to open up an opportunity for Parks to step in and start.
Cut Likelihood: 90%
Andre Holmes: 1.4 mil (0 mil)
We picked up Holmes when Sanders went down and while there's a chance he could be a decent option for us I don't think it's likely he stays with us next year.
Cut Likelihood: 95%
So with the cuts I've outlined as very likely (Leary, Marshall, Stewart, Holmes), we would have about 55-56 mil in cap space to work with.
Our current 2019 Unrestricted Free Agents are:
Jared Veldheer
Domata Peko
Tramaine Brock
Matt Paradis
Shaquil Barrett
Shane Ray
Billy Turner
Bradley Roby
Zach Kerr
Jamar Taylor
Gino Gradkowski
Jeff Heuerman
Max Garcia
Our Current 2019 Restricted Free Agents are:
Shelby Harris
Deiontrez Mount
Casey Kreiter
Jordan Taylor
Kevin Hogan
ERFA:
Brian Parker
Joseph Jones
Jerrol Garcia-Williams
Elijah Wilkinson
Matt LaCosse
Tim Patrick
Dymonte Thomas
From my view, finding a way to keep Shelby Harris and Shaq Barrett will be key. Harris' case is more straightforward. As a RFA we can tender him. My guess is we give him a second round tender which would give him a contract of 3.1 mil. Barrett will be tricky. I'm guessing we would offer him something along the lines of a 3 year 12 mil contract. However if a team is willing to give him a starting job and a contract to reflect that I don't think we would be able to match it. He could end up getting a 4 year 30 mil contract in that scenario.
Another big question will be Roby. I'm not sure what his asking price would be to re-sign with us. He hasn't been anywhere near an elite corner, granted it's his first year as a full time starter so maybe he still can grow into a top level corner, but if we sign him I don't think he's getting much more than 8 mil per season from us. It's possible we could give him a 1 year prove it deal for about 7 mil if he wants to establish himself as an elite corner before trying to get a long term deal in 2020.
The decision on Paradis will largely be based on health. But if we feel good about his health, that means everyone else will as well and he could be one of the top FA centers on the market. It would likely take about a 9 mil per year contract to get him re-signed if that's the case. We might decide to go for a cheaper option or go to the draft to find a center.
So assuming Harris, Barrett, Roby, and Paradis are back with us at the values I've listed, and with the likely cuts we'd be back at 32 mil in cap space to work with in Free Agency.
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