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With Kubiak Gone - What about the Draft / Work Done on it.

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Jonny_Quest View Post
    Just be aware that 2/3 of 1st rounders bust.

    So everyone saying "Bet the farm to move up to grab x!" should remember that there's a 66% we have a Jake Locker, and are out a bunch of future draft capital.

    If Murray is there at 10, I'd turn in the card. If not, I'd grab BPA and trade up into the low 20s to grab Grier.
    Recent 1st round QBs in order they were drafted:
    2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden.
    2013: EJ Manuel
    2014: Bortles, Bridgewater
    2015: Winston, Mariota
    2016: Goff, Wentz, Lynch
    2017: Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson
    2018: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson

    Observations from recent draft history:
    1. Not all years are created equal.
    2. Better chance of success in the upper end of round 1.
    3. Sadly, only 1 of those guys didn't see significant starting time (Lynch)
    4. 2/3 do not "bust" although there are definite risks, ie. Griffin injured, Manuel was drafted in a bad year for QBs, and obviously you can't always get a Luck.

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    • #77
      Originally posted by brianmcfarlane View Post
      Actually Sam has Brady appearing in 7 SBs while he has appeared in 8. That would make 52 starts to 52 starts so it is 50/50 in regards to starts. And there are 29 different starters versus 31 non first rounders.
      So, you're believing in the QBs you get in later rounds idea? I don't think you are really in that camp. I suppose you could go for a 17th round QB like Starr or 18th rounder like Kapp except the draft no longer has that many rounds. If we want to compete for a SB we need a 1st round talent at QB and waiting for a cinderella story of an overlooked or unscouted guy in the later rounds is not a good strategy. I'm not saying it can't happen, so by all means draft some projects in the later rounds because every once in awhile one can find a Garappolo.
      It probably is also worth pointing out that many of the non-1st rounders were 2nd rounders which means they had some reasonable amount of draft interest.

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      • #78
        I more of the school of take a project qb this year and hope you strike gold but in later rounds. Maybe someone overlooked due to school or offense. Say round 3 or 4. Then stock up picks for next year. Be laser focused on who is the best QB in 2020. I mean we can't get worse than we've been with QB selection. It's almost like "how can we pick the worst QB in each of our previous drafts. That should tell John something and grab some DB's this year.
        Bronco Bob

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        • #79
          Originally posted by bfallona View Post
          I more of the school of take a project qb this year and hope you strike gold but in later rounds. Maybe someone overlooked due to school or offense. Say round 3 or 4. Then stock up picks for next year. Be laser focused on who is the best QB in 2020. I mean we can't get worse than we've been with QB selection. It's almost like "how can we pick the worst QB in each of our previous drafts. That should tell John something and grab some DB's this year.
          Jarrett Stidham (Offense), Brett Rypien (School), and Gardner Minshew (School). All names to watch in those middle rounds at quarterback if you're looking for someone who may have slipped due to the things you mention here.

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