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Are RBs Declining In Value??

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  • #16
    David Johnson just got released.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by beastlyskronk View Post
      For the most part I would agree that they’d be drafted lower overall. Barkley, Elliot, and a healthy Gurley probably still go super high but they’re exceptions. However I do think RBs are getting better and better, yet at the same time they can be a nightmare for scouts due to how much they rely on everything around them on offense and the disproportionate view point of the offense helping them (minimal impact in scouting) to level of competition (much higher impact in scouting). That’s why Lindsay got overlooked, he has everything you want for in a RB but because he’s small, wasn’t really in a televised conference, and played lesser competition teams weren’t high on him.

      Sometimes I hate that vision gets included into scouting reports. Too often it’s actually a term used to mitigate the impact the rest of the team had on the RB as well as the competition. For example usually (online) scouts will claim a RB has good vision because he saw a hole open to the backside and cut back and ran through it, but I think most RBs can see that because they’re just accustomed to looking for it all the way back to pee wee leagues. Good vision to me starts with locating the helmets of the front 7 and they’re alignment after they’ve initiated contact with your blockers and making the right decision consistently. Great vision to me is to be able to see where those guys are going to end up aligning on your blockers before contact is ever initiated (their angles of pursuit basically) and then you can manipulate them to open up a hole for yourself. Matt Forte was great at this. Scottie Phillips from Ole Miss does a terrific job of this but since his production wasn’t super high he will get overlooked in this process but a guy like Deondre Swift (and to be fair I haven’t watched much of him) will probably be the top RB taken.

      There is just so much to look for and really to appreciate in a RB but at the same time you can also generally just plug in a 220-240 lb RB with 4.4-4.5 speed and you’ll get solid production as long as they run hard.
      Nice post beast! I like your assessment of vision.

      But I think you are correct that RBs are getting better, it's just the other factors that are impacting the game/drafts. Then again, there will be players who come along, not every year, that are elite. The term generational may be over used by some, but I think it applies to a high degree. Most players are gifted, but Barkley types are gifted +++. They are the type of athlete that teams select, even though they have other more pressing needs.

      But I feel like the game is evolving a little, in that mobile/passing QBs add instant O, and you can get away with a tandem of backs, who are all good, but bring different flavours to the mix. Sure, everyone wants a Barkley, but you can certainly get by with a group of backs who bring collective productivity...in terms of agility, power, speed, catching, running routes, blocking and more. And given the complexity and sophistication of the game, unless you just can not flat out stop one guy (like Henry at times), it makes life even more difficult for a DC trying to match up with an O that brings multiple looks within the framework of a creative playbook.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Murph2432 View Post
        David Johnson just got released.
        Somewhat surprising. He was phased out but I figured they’d field some calls for trade offers. I still think he ends up in Tampa Bay

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Murph2432 View Post
          David Johnson just got released.
          So you sayin he's lost some value then....

          Then again, it was not that long ago that he was the "complete" back, and almost unstoppable.

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          • #20
            I don’t think they’ve lost value per say. The league still churns out a lot of 1k yard rushers. Backs just seem to not have a long shelf life and don’t get a lot of big 2nd contracts. The back who can receive well seems to be where its at. If Lindsay was at least a “good receiver “ he’d be a perennial pro bowler.
            sigpic
            Thank you to my grandfather jetrazor for being a veteran of the armed forces!

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            • #21
              Not distinctly tied to this thread, but The NFL awards had a couple of interesting outcomes, for me anyway. The Offensive Player went to Thomas, a WR, and The Defensive Player went to Gilmore, a CB. Not saying it is the way of the future, but it does stress the value of the pass game....and without even awarding to a QB.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by CanDB View Post
                So you sayin he's lost some value then....

                Then again, it was not that long ago that he was the "complete" back, and almost unstoppable.
                He’s lost a step after his injury. He didn’t look like the same guy this season. That scheme specifically has no need for a big ticket RB so it makes sense in this situation.
                Are you looking for college all 22? Click the link. https://www.patreon.com/CaddytotheLama

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by CaddyToTheLama View Post
                  He’s lost a step after his injury. He didn’t look like the same guy this season. That scheme specifically has no need for a big ticket RB so it makes sense in this situation.
                  Anyone who had him in fantasy a few years back had a gold mine!

                  Arizona has some decent backs now, even without him. But I am just not sure he can be counted on to start again. He might be a nice backup piece.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by CaddyToTheLama View Post
                    He’s lost a step after his injury. He didn’t look like the same guy this season. That scheme specifically has no need for a big ticket RB so it makes sense in this situation.
                    It was a wrist injury, not sure he’s lost a step. He may not be quite there yet mentally, as well as not being utilized the same, and a very porous oline.

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                    • #25
                      I continue this thread as I watch Free Agency, noting how few RBs are of any consequence. Lets see who moved:

                      Howard
                      McKissic
                      Taiwan Jones???

                      I don't see a rush on Gordon, or the Gurley situation. Carlos Hyde? Freeman? Etc.....

                      I believe that in a passer driven league, and with plenty of decent RBs (at a modest draft price) every year who can fill needs, and in a league that has fewer all down backs, the RBs are not such a special commodity to many teams. Hey, the Barkley's will always be cherished, but teams don't mind having a multi back unit, and preferably with some variation on pass related capability, whether it be receiving or blocking.

                      Hey, the run game is never going to disappear, but until rules change, the passing game will have an edge. Therefore QBs, WRs, Pass Rushers, OTs and CBs will continue to be compensated the best.

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                      • #26
                        As most of you might know, just as I posted this, Gurley gets released. Not that it has much to do with this topic, but the fact that another RB has lost so much value.

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                        • #27
                          I don't know if RBs have lost value compared to the last several years but definitely compared to a couple of decades ago. Injuries or short shelf lives are real issues. I think most teams go into a season planning to use multiple backs. The RB better be a slam dunk superstar if you draft him early because he probably won't last as long as other positions, and you may have to have more than 1 regular contributor anyway.

                          I would prefer to invest in the OL and have 2-3 serviceable backs available that you can plug in as needed. A great OL will make many RBs look like stars. Few RBs will look like superstars behind a crappy line.

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                          • #28
                            Ultimately, teams want superstar RB's....they just don't want to invest a significant portion of their cap into the position, given the shelf life of the RB position.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by myoung View Post
                              I don't know if RBs have lost value compared to the last several years but definitely compared to a couple of decades ago. Injuries or short shelf lives are real issues. I think most teams go into a season planning to use multiple backs. The RB better be a slam dunk superstar if you draft him early because he probably won't last as long as other positions, and you may have to have more than 1 regular contributor anyway.

                              I would prefer to invest in the OL and have 2-3 serviceable backs available that you can plug in as needed. A great OL will make many RBs look like stars. Few RBs will look like superstars behind a crappy line.
                              I agree with ya overall.

                              I have noticed this trend for a while now, and this year is holding its own...as we hardly ever talk about RB Draftees, and similarly in FA, other than Gordon joining us. Which is notable to me, but he is one of the few. Gurley's situation was a bit of kick in the butt, for a guy we all wanted in Fantasy just a couple of years ago. Of course there are still the Henry, Barkley, Elliott types, who are often game changers. But there are less of those backs, and more multi back systems. And good backs, especially specialist types, can be found even into the mid rounds. You want a touh back, you can find one. You want a change of pace back, you can find one. You get it.

                              I wish the pendulum would swing a little, in terms of rules favouring the passing game, but having said that, a team beat 2 favs in the playoffs pretty much using a good D and one back who would not go down!

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