NFL Draft

[johnlimburg]

I also think teams are crazy committing multiple high picks to trade up to go and grab a wide reciever. We are talking about guys who are nice pieces, and in good situations can tip you over the edge, but in terms of overall impact, they are not going to change the direction of a franchise. I am trying to think of wide receivers who teams traded up for and committed a lot of high resources to, and how those situations worked out in the short term. Julio Jones ? He has been great, but did that hamstring their ability to build for several years ? A lot of people think so.

I also started to do a little study a few weeks ago which I couldn't be bothered finishing, where I was looking at the top 25 leaders in receptions over the last 20 years at 3 year intervals, and the results were showing that guys drafted into the mid first round, through to the third round, had more impact than those top tier guys drafted in the top 15. Look at the last 10 years of guys taken in the top 15 alone. Corey Coleman, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, John Ross, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Tavon Austin, Justin Blackmon, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Darrius Heywerd-Bey, and Michael Crabtree.

A pretty low hit rate in terms of guys living up to their status and being that legitimate number one guy. If you extend that out to guys drafted in that 16-50 range you see that is where a large percentage of top 25 leading receivers are drafted. Have a look at the list of guys who feature on that list.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...on&position=WR

[CanDB]

I take it as maybe outside of Burrow, teams won't be going QB and will make a run at some of these WRs and OTs. Reports coming out that "several" teams dropping Tua from their draft board because of injury concerns. Herberts problem is bad film in big games. I think these guys fall way down. Almost all of these top teams drafting NEED OT or WR help. The strength of this draft is OT and WR, why wouldn't these teams take the best players of the draft???

At the end of the day it's all perception, and really how the individual wants to look at certain things. This quarterback class on tape is dramatically better than last years. The 3 of Burrow, Herbert, and Tua have collectively put up superior tape as a group, and I don't understand how from one year you can advocate trading into the top 5 for Jones or top 10 for Lock, who both had ample putrid tape, bad tape, and the exact kind of tape you accuse Herbert of having against bad teams, but think this year the guy will drop ?

I think you are off base. I think 3 quarterbacks are taken in the top 10 this year, with only 1 reciever gone by that same pick, potentially none. When you look at supply and demand, that is what drives guys higher, it drives anything in the market higher. With so much talent at wideout, a strategy could be to shift focus to another position, and expect that more talent will be there later in the draft, in the second round. Last year I said over and over the group of quarterbacks wasn't that good, and people were predicting that 6 at one point in the first round would be taken, way wrong. That happened for a different reason, collectively that group was mediocre, the tape told us that, but wide reciever in this draft might not have the high picks everyone expects, because there are so many options for teams to choose from, that is my prediction this year.

I do think that Burrow, Tua and Herbert will be gone by 9, maybe 6. Not sure about the next tier of QBs. Maybe Love goes later in one.

As for WR. I am from the school of, if not an absolute necessity, wait til round two. But it all depends on what GMs want and even covet. I expect the top 3 to go by 15, but I would not be surprised if it's a top 4, and that they all go by early 20s. HOWEVER....if one team jumps the gun on WRs, we might see at least one in the top 10. And the domino effect might surprise.

This may totally alter the draft.

But the one constant for me, given the lack of face to face and extra diligence allowed...is that safe OTs will go close to forecast. That is, if Becton appears to be safe.

[johnlimburg]

I do think that Burrow, Tua and Herbert will be gone by 9, maybe 6. Not sure about the next tier of QBs. Maybe Love goes later in one.

As for WR. I am from the school of, if not an absolute necessity, wait til round two. But it all depends on what GMs want and even covet. I expect the top 3 to go by 15, but I would not be surprised if it's a top 4, and that they all go by early 20s. HOWEVER....if one team jumps the gun on WRs, we might see at least one in the top 10. And the domino effect might surprise.

This may totally alter the draft.

But the one constant for me, given the lack of face to face and extra diligence allowed...is that safe OTs will go close to forecast. That is, if Becton appears to be safe.

Yeah I think that is what happens, but when that second wideout comes off the board, if that is early, craziness pursues. I think if a team takes a guy in the top 10, the next team panics and moves up, then the run starts.

However, I think if one of those teams that everyone thinks wants wideout, in that 9-12 area goes a different direction, and no trade up happens, I think it holds off and Denver have a shot at a guy the fans clearly want.

[CanDB]

Yeah I think that is what happens, but when that second wideout comes off the board, if that is early, craziness pursues. I think if a team takes a guy in the top 10, the next team panics and moves up, then the run starts.

However, I think if one of those teams that everyone thinks wants wideout, in that 9-12 area goes a different direction, and no trade up happens, I think it holds off and Denver have a shot at a guy the fans clearly want.

This is the beauty of the draft itself, when the mocks all turn into dust. One or two changes to the early mix and excitement follows. Plan Bs take effect, maybe plan Cs. Deals might be made.

It might be true what I recently read....this actual draft may be quite different than many of the mocks. But as long as we go in with a solid board, and are prepared to make deals if they become wise to do, we will be fine. Panic is for losers, especially on day one.

I think the WR situation has been the most exciting WR draft as long as I can remember. So much talent. So much depth. And somehow I expect something wild to happen, perhaps one of the top 3 is not one of the top 3 after all. It is like stocks, until you do something official, it's not that real. And so until picks are made, who we thought was going where and when may not be as accurate as anticipated.

But because we are in the WR market, the trade off is whether we go hard to acquire one early (15th pick at the latest), or we remain patient and select a different need position in one, knowing there will be good receivers with our 2nd pick.

I am excited. I am just not keen on DT in one, unless Brown somehow is there.....but he won't be. My favs in one include WR/OT and ILB.

[EddieMac]

Thanks for pointing that out. Went back and looked at team salary again. And you are correct. The rollover does cover his salary this year.

Essentially Broncos restructured , delayed payment a year and then didn't use the cap last year, so it goes right back to Flacco.

My misunderstanding. The Broncos would not have had any money to use on other players. It's tied up into a retired QB either way.

No worries..it was a common belief that the flacco restructure caused a large dead money issue.,

[CanDB]

I can just see the GMs and their groups, along with the IT/Telecom folks practicing and rehearsing and going over contingencies. You need an all pro tech team this year!

And if some of the GMs are not tech savvy, I wonder if the fear of such failure is messin with them a little. Might skip a trade or two because it is so much easier to pick your pick.

[CanDB]

Dang that Drew Lock and The Broncos....winning 4 out of 5! Putting is in the #15 position!!

[JvDub95]

What if.....

I'm hearing a lot about Denver trading up. What if it is just smoke screen so their main target slips down and they are just sitting back smiling. I just read Cecil Lammey is saying watch out for a trade back into the 1st late with possible Seahawks or 49rs for a LB?!?!? What if the trade up isn't high but actually late??

[Bootleg]

I can just see the GMs and their groups, along with the IT/Telecom folks practicing and rehearsing and going over contingencies. You need an all pro tech team this year!

And if some of the GMs are not tech savvy, I wonder if the fear of such failure is messin with them a little. Might skip a trade or two because it is so much easier to pick your pick.

[CanDB]

Nice!!!

:thumb:

I know, old story...but please don't include a fax machine!

[CanDB]

Get Becton at 15 trade back from the 2nd round into the 20s and get Jefferson.

This Becton situation is intriguing me a little, because he may just slip enough to be within our radar, maybe at 15 even. Given that it may be nothing at all to be concerned about, though admittedly it seemed a bit irresponsible, he could be almost a steal for some team. Top 10 potential OTs are worth a load!

And I am in your court re: Jefferson. If we could land Becton and move up enough to acquire this WR, our O would be awesome!!! BUT that would likely cost the 2nd and at very least our top 3rd. Then again, many see Jefferson as one of the top 4, and if you can land possibly the top Oliner and one of the top WRs, and for the cost of a 3rd and maybe a later pick, I'm down. We are talking high quality players!

And if I look back, the two positions that were way up on our fanbase draft lists were 1) OT and 2) WR.

After that I'd be inclined to go D, D and more D, with the possibility of an OLiner/WR later.

[WYBRONCO]

This Becton situation is intriguing me a little, because he may just slip enough to be within our radar, maybe at 15 even. Given that it may be nothing at all to be concerned about, though admittedly it seemed a bit irresponsible, he could be almost a steal for some team. Top 10 potential OTs are worth a load!

And I am in your court re: Jefferson. If we could land Becton and move up enough to acquire this WR, our O would be awesome!!! BUT that would likely cost the 2nd and at very least our top 3rd. Then again, many see Jefferson as one of the top 4, and if you can land possibly the top Oliner and one of the top WRs, and for the cost of a 3rd and maybe a later pick, I'm down. We are talking high quality players!

And if I look back, the two positions that were way up on our fanbase draft lists were 1) OT and 2) WR.

After that I'd be inclined to go D, D and more D, with the possibility of an OLiner/WR later.

Becton and Jefferson for the first two picks for Elway this draft look pretty good to me.

[HDbroncos02]

Jacksonville just released Marqise Lee. WR has to definitely be in play for them at #9.

Hoo boy.

[HDbroncos02]

Jacksonville just released Marqise Lee. WR has to definitely be in play for them at #9.

Hoo boy.

I take that back— Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley were way more productive for them behind DJ Chark. Lee is probably just a cap casualty. I should know this!!

[WYBRONCO]

I take that back— Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley were way more productive for them behind DJ Chark. Lee is probably just a cap casualty. I should know this!!

Good call, however I could still see Jacksonville taking a WR rd 1. I would personally take the best OL/DL I could find for Jacksonville's pick but that doesn't mean anything.