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  • #61
    Originally posted by FR Tim View Post
    There seems to be a trend that thinks a rookie QB just comes in and plays well from day one.

    Broncos pick any of these rookies early or especially in mid rds they will take time to develop and take their lumps learning to be a professional while playing. Same as Lock. The struggles to adapt are still there just with a new shiny toy.

    As for drafting another QB to develop and keeping Lock.. horrible idea IMO.

    Pick a path and commit to it. If Broncos choose a QB at #9 so be it. Lock has to go. If they choose to continue to develop Lock then you don’t confuse the situation by drafting a QB to take his job. Lock is not an established QB that is ready to be moved.

    Either way they need a vet in the bldg to help develop either a new QB or Lock. Smith is my preferred choice. Then the QB room has a vet, a developing QB ( Lock or drafted) and Rypien as a third.

    Paton and Broncos will need to make a choice and stick with it! With the QB, with the OC, with the system in general. Bad organizations are always in a state of constant change. There is no mystery why they keep losing. The biggest gift Paton can bring to the Broncos is stability and consistency. Still waiting to see if he does. How he chooses to handle this QB issue will reveal a lot.

    its as if you crawled into my head and typed this out !
    I'd hit the like button twice if I could .

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by FR Tim View Post

      Paton and Broncos will need to make a choice and stick with it! With the QB, with the OC, with the system in general. Bad organizations are always in a state of constant change. There is no mystery why they keep losing. The biggest gift Paton can bring to the Broncos is stability and consistency. Still waiting to see if he does. How he chooses to handle this QB issue will reveal a lot.
      Completely agree with this. Despite the talk of being “loaded” this is a 5-11 team that’s improved at CB if healthy. The rest of the “improvements” are players returning from opt-out or injury. We have multiple needs (ILB, RT, CB, Dline) that trading up would make impossible to fill with impact players. Starting over again with the 4th best QB prospect and one arm tied behind the back sounds like a recipe for more 5-11 seasons.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by dgobronco View Post

        Completely agree with this. Despite the talk of being “loaded” this is a 5-11 team that’s improved at CB if healthy. The rest of the “improvements” are players returning from opt-out or injury. We have multiple needs (ILB, RT, CB, Dline) that trading up would make impossible to fill with impact players. Starting over again with the 4th best QB prospect and one arm tied behind the back sounds like a recipe for more 5-11 seasons.
        To be clear. I prefer they continue to develop Lock and build up the entire team.

        But if they choose to acquire or trade to replace him I can get behind it.

        Just have realistic expectations of outcomes. I share the frustrations with Locks performance. He has been inconsistent with horrible highs and lows. Exactly as his scouting report stated when drafted.

        I have my opinion. But I defer that the coaches in the bldg. Do they have enough confidence in Lock? Do they prefer a new project in Fields, Lance or Jones at #9?

        Just pick one! This is not SF with drafting a project to replace Garrapalo or even GB drafting a future replacement for Rodgers. This is a Bronco team struggling to figure out who they are or if they are going to be in the bldg in six months ( coaches included).

        Broncos can only develop one QB, one leader, one future of the franchise at a time.

        Pick one! I’ll be onboard as a fan.

        Comment


        • #64
          Sporting News has the first 9 selections as follows:

          Jags - Lawrence
          Jets - Wilson
          SF - Lance
          Atl - Chase
          Cinci - Sewell
          Miami - D Smith
          Det - Waddle
          Car - Fields
          Broncs - Jones

          5 for 9 QBs!!! Could happen. I still think one or more teams will be trying to move up and watch out for The pats to knock on our door. The trade value difference is 300 points, so I would force them to give us their 2nd, which is worth 440. If they whine, throw in our 4th.

          At 15 I could see a quality CB, and that would allow us the opportunity to utilize 2 2nds for two of the following...OT, ILB, Edge. Take an RB in round 3 or 4.

          Anyway....will we go QB at #9, or even sooner?? Getting anxious. Mind you, if SF has Jimmy G and still want a top 3 QB in the draft, maybe they know a little of what they do.

          Comment


          • #65
            Originally posted by CanDB View Post
            Sporting News has the first 9 selections as follows:

            Jags - Lawrence
            Jets - Wilson
            SF - Lance
            Atl - Chase
            Cinci - Sewell
            Miami - D Smith
            Det - Waddle
            Car - Fields
            Broncs - Jones

            5 for 9 QBs!!! Could happen. I still think one or more teams will be trying to move up and watch out for The pats to knock on our door. The trade value difference is 300 points, so I would force them to give us their 2nd, which is worth 440. If they whine, throw in our 4th.

            At 15 I could see a quality CB, and that would allow us the opportunity to utilize 2 2nds for two of the following...OT, ILB, Edge. Take an RB in round 3 or 4.

            Anyway....will we go QB at #9, or even sooner?? Getting anxious. Mind you, if SF has Jimmy G and still want a top 3 QB in the draft, maybe they know a little of what they do.
            i know its counter intuitive but in these scenerios i dont pay much attention to trade values. its how much one team will give up vs another. for instance id rather make a trade with the bears than the pats because the bears have a pick in the 40s i believe where as the pats next pick is 77 if i remember correctly.

            unfortunately we still have around a month to gi before the draft
            Glen Haven Fire

            Comment


            • #66
              I was listening to the radio the other day. It was pointed out that in 2019 Zach Wilson struggled against the power 5 teams.

              He didn’t play any power 5 teams in 2020 and had a standout season.

              Maybe he will end up being a good quarterback, but the evidence doesn’t justify him being taken before Justin Fields.

              If the Broncos do take a quarterback, I hope they figure out a to get Fields.
              My Opinion isn’t determined by what the Popular Opinion is. Sometimes I agree with the Majority, Sometimes I Don’t. If My Opinion is Different than Yours, I have to Ask One Question:
              You Mad Bro?
              Don’t Be A Mean Girl

              Comment


              • #67
                Wonder how likely it is that the five top QBs become franchise players for the team that drafts them?
                "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

                Comment


                • #68
                  Im not sure why a lot not people feel that Mac Jones can't be successful in the NFL. He played an all sec schedule quarter back for the national champion Alabama. Yes he had a good cast around him but he certainly had to play at a high level playing for Nick Sabin . He is a good quarterback Broncos could sure do a lot worse. All QB are a gamble Jones played against quality teams compared to Lawrence who played against much less teams..also Jones beat Lawrence in the playoffs. Just my thoughts

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by FR Tim View Post

                    To be clear. I prefer they continue to develop Lock and build up the entire team.

                    But if they choose to acquire or trade to replace him I can get behind it.

                    Just have realistic expectations of outcomes. I share the frustrations with Locks performance. He has been inconsistent with horrible highs and lows. Exactly as his scouting report stated when drafted.

                    I have my opinion. But I defer that the coaches in the bldg. Do they have enough confidence in Lock? Do they prefer a new project in Fields, Lance or Jones at #9?

                    Just pick one! This is not SF with drafting a project to replace Garrapalo or even GB drafting a future replacement for Rodgers. This is a Bronco team struggling to figure out who they are or if they are going to be in the bldg in six months ( coaches included).

                    Broncos can only develop one QB, one leader, one future of the franchise at a time.

                    Pick one! I’ll be onboard as a fan.
                    I’m with you...if we do go QB, it’s not realistic to expect him to come in an light the league on fire. Several years of development is more likely, and it may not work out at all. I am concerned that taking a rookie QB who doesn’t perform well immediately will lead to firing the coaches and maybe more changes, and we’ll be right back in the same cycle of inconsistency and impatience we’ve been in since Manning left. It’s a cycle teams can be stuck in for a decade or more.

                    Lock is both tantalizing and disappointing. If we stick with him, he needs to step it up this year and earn the opportunity to keep playing and developing.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by samparnell View Post
                      Wonder how likely it is that the five top QBs become franchise players for the team that drafts them?
                      Great question. For all the hype and desire to draft one of these "top 5" QBs. There is risk, more with some the others. They all have had great careers and lofty college stats. Not all transition.

                      Somebody is going to be thrilled with their Mayfield or Allen. Broncos just don't want to be the team that chooses the next Darnold or Rosen.

                      Hoping that Paton has the magic touch in this decision.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by FR Tim View Post

                        Great question. For all the hype and desire to draft one of these "top 5" QBs. There is risk, more with some the others. They all have had great careers and lofty college stats. Not all transition.

                        Somebody is going to be thrilled with their Mayfield or Allen. Broncos just don't want to be the team that chooses the next Darnold or Rosen.

                        Hoping that Paton has the magic touch in this decision.
                        Lets remember that Mayfield hasn't / wasn't all that great, but the team stuck with him, and he's turning out just fine. Just like what we need to do with Lock. Wait, now I want to be like the Browns ? Didn't that used to be a joke ?

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by FR Tim View Post

                          Great question. For all the hype and desire to draft one of these "top 5" QBs. There is risk, more with some the others. They all have had great careers and lofty college stats. Not all transition.

                          Somebody is going to be thrilled with their Mayfield or Allen. Broncos just don't want to be the team that chooses the next Darnold or Rosen.

                          Hoping that Paton has the magic touch in this decision.
                          Six QBs were drafted in the first round of 1983: John Elway (#1); Todd Blackledge (#7); Jim Kelly (#14); Tony Eason (#15); Ken O'Brien (#24); and, Dan Marino (#27)

                          Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 1987: Vinny Testaverde (#1); Kelly Stouffer (#6); Chris Miller (#13); and, Jim Harbaugh (#26)

                          Five QBs were drafted in the first round of 1999: Tim Couch (#1); Donovan McNabb (#2); Akili Smith (#3); Daunte Culpepper (#11); and, Cade McNown (#12)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2002: David Carr (#1); Joey Harrington (#3); and, Patrick Ramsey (#32)

                          Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2003: Carson Palmer (#1); Byron Leftwich (#7); Kyle Boller (#19); and, Rex Grossman (#22)

                          Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2004: Eli Manning (#1); Philip Rivers (#4); Ben Roethlisberger (#11); and, J.P. Losman (#22)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2005: Alex Smith (#1); Aaron Rodgers (#24); and, Jason Campbell (#25)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2006: Vince Young (#3); Matt Leinart (#10); and, Jay Cutler (#11)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2009: Matt Stafford (#1); Mark Sanchez (#5); and, Josh Freeman (#17)

                          Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2011: Cam Newton (#1); Jake Locker (#8); Blaine Gabbert (#10); and, Christian Ponder (#12)

                          Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2012: Andrew Luck (#1); RGIII (#2); Ryan Tannehill (#8); and, Brandon Weeden (#22)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2014: Blake Bortles (#3); Johnny Manziel (#22); and, Teddy Bridgewater (#32)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2016: Jared Goff (#1); Carson Wentz (#2); and, Paxton Lynch (#26)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2017: Mitch Trubisky (#2); Patrick Mahomes (#10); and, Deshaun Watson (#12)

                          Five QBs were drafted in the first round of 2018: Baker Mayfield (#1); Sam Darnold (#3); Josh Allen (#7); Josh Rosen (#10); and, Lamar Jackson (#32)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2019: Kyler Murray (#1); Daniel Jones (#6); Dwayne Haskins (#15)

                          Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2020: Joe Burrow (#1); Tua Tagovailoa ((#5); Justin Herbert (#6); and, Jordan Love (#26)

                          Drafts with at least three QBs going in the first round were selected, because it looks like at least three will be picked in the first round this year, and most likely five.

                          It's probably a little early to judge the last two or three drafts, but at the moment it looks like three times in the last thirty-eight years have three QBs drafted in the first round had what could reasonably be called successful careers (i.e., 1983, 2004, 2018), and three is the max, so far.

                          All these guys were drafted in the first round because they looked great in college, were scouted and worked out by pro scouts and coaches and selected by the front offices of NFL teams. This year we have Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones all of whom are expected to be picked in the first round in a month. What are the chances that all five of these guys will be picked in the first round and become franchise QBs by the teams that pick them? It could happen, but if it does, it will be the first time since 1983 and maybe ever (didn't go back before that year)

                          Right now it looks like QBs will be selected with the first three picks at least, maybe four. QBs have gone #1, #2 and #3 once since 1983 (i.e., 1999)

                          So, some think Denver should pay the price to move up to #4 to select a QB. What would that price be? Would that player be a starter in 2021?

                          If Denver sits still at #9, will all five of these QBs be gone by then? If so, then who are the other three guys, besides QBs, who will go in the first eight? If one of the QBs is still there at #9 and the Broncos pick him, would he be a starter in 2021?

                          We will find out in a month what the Denver Front Office, Coaching and Scouting staff think about Drew Lock relative to the 2021 QBs, and what they think of the players at other positions in the draft pool. It is conceivable Denver could trade back, if they can find a partner, and acquire more picks in the second and third rounds which will probably have pretty good prospects. In view of the fact that Denver would like to upgrade their roster at four offensive and four defensive positions, it is a possibility.

                          P.S. From the common draft in 1967 to 1983, three QBs were drafted in the first round three times.

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 1979: Jack Thompson (#3); Phil Simms (#7); and, Steve Fuller (#23)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 1971: Jim Plunkett (#1); Archie Manning (#2); and, Dan Pastorini (#3)

                          Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 1967: Steve Spurrier (#3); Bob Griese (#4); and, Don Horn (#25)

                          Since the common draft, QBs have been picked #1, #2 and #3 twice (i.e., 1971, 1999)

                          These three drafts (1967, 1971, 1979) haven't changed the number of times three QBs drafted in the first round have gone on to have what could reasonably be defined as successful careers for the team that drafted them. That has only happened three times, so far (i.e., 1983, 2004, 2018)

                          Since the common draft, more than three QBs have been selected in the first round nine times all of those happening during the past thirty-eight years. Looks like five QBs will go in the first round this time. More than three of them could go on to have successful careers with the team that drafts them, but it has not happened since the common draft.


                          Last edited by samparnell; 03-31-2021, 10:37 AM. Reason: post scriptum
                          "Stultum est timere quod vitare non potes." ~ Publilius Syrus

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by samparnell View Post
                            Wonder how likely it is that the five top QBs become franchise players for the team that drafts them?
                            I say 39/40% of the QBs taken are likely to become franchise players. So that would mean ... 2.
                            That is going by history of the last 9/10 years; ~40% of 1st round QBs have been "successful". That is counting Teddy Bridgewater as a success - franchise player? - and also includes Tannehill who actually was not a success for the team that drafted him. I am not counting any 2020 QBs because it is just too soon to really say on them. But the 2019 QBs have not fared that well - Jones and Haskins have not yet established themselves as franchise players, IMO.

                            EDIT: I had been working on this and watching hockey for the last hour so I did not see or have read Sam's post just above this one
                            sigpic

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Originally posted by samparnell View Post

                              Six QBs were drafted in the first round of 1983: John Elway (#1); Todd Blackledge (#7); Jim Kelly (#14); Tony Eason (#15); Ken O'Brien (#24); and, Dan Marino (#27)

                              Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 1987: Vinny Testaverde (#1); Kelly Stouffer (#6); Chris Miller (#13); and, Jim Harbaugh (#26)

                              Five QBs were drafted in the first round of 1999: Tim Couch (#1); Donovan McNabb (#2); Akili Smith (#3); Daunte Culpepper (#11); and, Cade McNown (#12)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2002: David Carr (#1); Joey Harrington (#3); and, Patrick Ramsey (#32)

                              Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2003: Carson Palmer (#1); Byron Leftwich (#7); Kyle Boller (#19); and, Rex Grossman (#22)

                              Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2004: Eli Manning (#1); Philip Rivers (#4); Ben Roethlisberger (#11); and, J.P. Losman (#22)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2005: Alex Smith (#1); Aaron Rodgers (#24); and, Jason Campbell (#25)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2006: Vince Young (#3); Matt Leinart (#10); and, Jay Cutler (#11)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2009: Matt Stafford (#1); Mark Sanchez (#5); and, Josh Freeman (#17)

                              Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2011: Cam Newton (#1); Jake Locker (#8); Blaine Gabbert (#10); and, Christian Ponder (#12)

                              Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2012: Andrew Luck (#1); RGIII (#2); Ryan Tannehill (#8); and, Brandon Weeden (#22)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2014: Blake Bortles (#3); Johnny Manziel (#22); and, Teddy Bridgewater (#32)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2016: Jared Goff (#1); Carson Wentz (#2); and, Paxton Lynch (#26)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2017: Mitch Trubisky (#2); Patrick Mahomes (#10); and, Deshaun Watson (#12)

                              Five QBs were drafted in the first round of 2018: Baker Mayfield (#1); Sam Darnold (#3); Josh Allen (#7); Josh Rosen (#10); and, Lamar Jackson (#32)

                              Three QBs were drafted in the first round of 2019: Kyler Murray (#1); Daniel Jones (#6); Dwayne Haskins (#15)

                              Four QBs were drafted in the first round of 2020: Joe Burrow (#1); Tua Tagovailoa ((#5); Justin Herbert (#6); and, Jordan Love (#26)

                              Drafts with at least three QBs going in the first round were selected, because it looks like at least three will be picked in the first round this year, and most likely five.

                              It's probably a little early to judge the last two or three drafts, but at the moment it looks like three times in the last thirty-eight years have three QBs drafted in the first round had what could reasonably be called successful careers (i.e., 1983, 2004, 2018), and three is the max, so far.

                              All these guys were drafted in the first round because they looked great in college, were scouted and worked out by pro scouts and coaches and selected by the front offices of NFL teams. This year we have Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones all of whom are expected to be picked in the first round in a month. What are the chances that all five of these guys will be picked in the first round and become franchise QBs by the teams that pick them? It could happen, but if it does, it will be the first time since 1983 and maybe ever (didn't go back before that year)

                              Right now it looks like QBs will be selected with the first three picks at least, maybe four. QBs have gone #1, #2 and #3 once since 1983 (i.e., 1999)

                              So, some think Denver should pay the price to move up to #4 to select a QB. What would that price be? Would that player be a starter in 2021?

                              If Denver sits still at #9, will all five of these QBs be gone by then? If so, then who are the other three guys, besides QBs, who will go in the first eight? If one of the QBs is still there at #9 and the Broncos pick him, would he be a starter in 2021?

                              We will find out in a month what the Denver Front Office, Coaching and Scouting staff think about Drew Lock relative to the 2021 QBs, and what they think of the players at other positions in the draft pool. It is conceivable Denver could trade back, if they can find a partner, and acquire more picks in the second and third rounds which will probably have pretty good prospects. In view of the fact that Denver would like to upgrade their roster at four offensive and four defensive positions, it is a possibility.
                              Good info, thanks for taking the time to gather all that. I think this also shows nobody knows who the best QB will be in the bunch, a few times a star is drafted last, like marino and Jackson.

                              If Jones is there at 9, I don't think twice, I swing. You're right, small percentage he's a franchise guy but the percentage is better than if we never draft one.

                              I'm not buying this crap that u can't have 2 QBs on the same team with starting potential. Let Drew play half the season or so and see if there's big improvement, if there is, GREAT!!! I think we will all be thrilled. Now we have a backup, he plays a few games and looks good, we trade him. Really, who cares at this point? We have our starter.

                              If Drew stinks it up, say bad, might have to pull him game 3 or 4. Let Jones step in, Lock can develop behind him and be the back up. We get more development time and save a year of losing hopefully.

                              I have a feeling 49ers grab Jones at 3 though. I'm not a fan of trading up in this draft.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by armedequation View Post

                                i know its counter intuitive but in these scenerios i dont pay much attention to trade values. its how much one team will give up vs another. for instance id rather make a trade with the bears than the pats because the bears have a pick in the 40s i believe where as the pats next pick is 77 if i remember correctly.

                                unfortunately we still have around a month to gi before the draft
                                Actually The pats have a 2nd rounder at #46

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