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  • listopencil
    replied
    Originally posted by broncolee View Post

    So then you believe Tua shouldn’t have been drafted and that Mac Jones shouldn’t be drafted because they played at Alabama, correct?

    I can’t speak for those front offices as to whether or not they believed in the quarterbacks they selected. They may have simply drafted a quarterback because they thought they needed to draft one.

    I hope the Broncos don’t draft a quarterback just to draft one. However, if there is one they believe in and he’s available, they should draft him.
    No, I believe that history shows that the 4th QB taken in the 1st round has not worked out for their respective teams. The simplest, or easiest, or quickest inference that comes to mind is that there generally aren't more than three obvious 'franchise' (whatever you want to call it) QB prospects available each year and that teams who reach for one anyway get burned for it.

    Leave a comment:


  • broncolee
    replied
    Originally posted by listopencil View Post

    What happened to those Front Offices, and those teams, that picked a QB 4th because they believed in them? Did that work out for them? Over the last forty years?
    So then you believe Tua shouldn’t have been drafted and that Mac Jones shouldn’t be drafted because they played at Alabama, correct?

    I can’t speak for those front offices as to whether or not they believed in the quarterbacks they selected. They may have simply drafted a quarterback because they thought they needed to draft one.

    I hope the Broncos don’t draft a quarterback just to draft one. However, if there is one they believe in and he’s available, they should draft him.

    Leave a comment:


  • listopencil
    replied
    Originally posted by broncolee View Post
    You don’t not pick a quarterback you believe in just because he’ll be the fourth quarterback selected.

    That wouldn’t make any sense.
    What happened to those Front Offices, and those teams, that picked a QB 4th because they believed in them? Did that work out for them? Over the last forty years?

    Leave a comment:


  • broncolee
    replied
    You don’t not pick a quarterback you believe in just because he’ll be the fourth quarterback selected.

    That wouldn’t make any sense.

    Leave a comment:


  • samparnell
    replied
    Originally posted by broncolee View Post

    Teams can’t draft based on superstition due to past performances of the fourth quarterback taken in a draft.

    If superstition were a valid reason to not draft someone, then Tua should not have been drafted and neither should Mac Jones. Alabama hasn’t produced an NFL quarterback worth a damn since Ken Stabler.

    I understand being skeptical based on school, but there were plenty of people here wanting Tua. I just wonder if some of those people are among the ones who want to knock Fields for playing at Ohio State.

    I just hope that the Broncos draft a player that they believe in. I don’t want them to take a quarterback just for the sake of taking one. I am not a fan of trading down. I want them to take the best player available that they believe in. If there is no such player, then trade down, if possible. Need a trade partner for that. Some people just act like it’s solely one team’s decision.
    One guy's superstition is another guy's history. Don't shoot the messenger.

    Leave a comment:


  • listopencil
    replied
    Originally posted by broncolee View Post

    Teams can’t draft based on superstition due to past performances of the fourth quarterback taken in a draft.

    If superstition were a valid reason to not draft someone, then Tua should not have been drafted and neither should Mac Jones. Alabama hasn’t produced an NFL quarterback worth a damn since Ken Stabler.

    I understand being skeptical based on school, but there were plenty of people here wanting Tua. I just wonder if some of those people are among the ones who want to knock Fields for playing at Ohio State.

    I just hope that the Broncos draft a player that they believe in. I don’t want them to take a quarterback just for the sake of taking one. I am not a fan of trading down. I want them to take the best player available that they believe in. If there is no such player, then trade down, if possible. Need a trade partner for that. Some people just act like it’s solely one team’s decision.
    It's not superstition. Generally speaking, QB's get drafted later because they've shown that they aren't worth drafting earlier. Sometimes the guys doing the drafting are wrong. Sometimes the guys doing the drafting are right. But Sam just posted a collection of data going back about forty years. He's not just picking a weird statistical situation like the third Guard from the Midwest who prefers oatmeal for breakfast. It's meaningful data. He's talking about draft prospects who were judged to be out of the top three at their position.

    Leave a comment:


  • broncolee
    replied
    Originally posted by samparnell View Post

    That would be the question: if? We'll get the answer on Thursday.

    It will depend on who is selected before Denver, and how they feel about Drew Lock. Denver could trade up, stay at #9 or trade back.

    Looks like at least five QBs will go in the first round; could tie 1983 at six, or even end up at seven. I wish them all the best of luck. We won't know for several years how they'll do.

    Looks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert from last year are doing well, and probably Tua Tagovailoa, too. Won't know until Aaron Rodgers retires how Jordan Love will do. If they all pan out for their teams, it will be the first time more than three first round QBs have come through for their teams.

    History of fourth QBs drafted in the first round:

    1983 Tony Eason;

    1987 Jim Harbaugh;

    1999 Daunte Culpepper;

    2003 Rex Grossman;

    2004 J.P. Losman;

    2011 Christian Ponder;

    2012 Brandon Weeden;

    2018 Josh Rosen;

    2020 Jordan Love
    Teams can’t draft based on superstition due to past performances of the fourth quarterback taken in a draft.

    If superstition were a valid reason to not draft someone, then Tua should not have been drafted and neither should Mac Jones. Alabama hasn’t produced an NFL quarterback worth a damn since Ken Stabler.

    I understand being skeptical based on school, but there were plenty of people here wanting Tua. I just wonder if some of those people are among the ones who want to knock Fields for playing at Ohio State.

    I just hope that the Broncos draft a player that they believe in. I don’t want them to take a quarterback just for the sake of taking one. I am not a fan of trading down. I want them to take the best player available that they believe in. If there is no such player, then trade down, if possible. Need a trade partner for that. Some people just act like it’s solely one team’s decision.

    Leave a comment:


  • GMTD
    replied
    Originally posted by samparnell View Post

    That would be the question: if? We'll get the answer on Thursday.

    It will depend on who is selected before Denver, and how they feel about Drew Lock. Denver could trade up, stay at #9 or trade back.

    Looks like at least five QBs will go in the first round; could tie 1983 at six, or even end up at seven. I wish them all the best of luck. We won't know for several years how they'll do.

    Looks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert from last year are doing well, and probably Tua Tagovailoa, too. Won't know until Aaron Rodgers retires how Jordan Love will do. If they all pan out for their teams, it will be the first time more than three first round QBs have come through for their teams.

    History of fourth QBs drafted in the first round:

    1983 Tony Eason;

    1987 Jim Harbaugh;

    1999 Daunte Culpepper;

    2003 Rex Grossman;

    2004 J.P. Losman;

    2011 Christian Ponder;

    2012 Brandon Weeden;

    2018 Josh Rosen;

    2020 Jordan Love
    This year though is set to be more unusual than most of those above in that there could be 4 QBs taken in first 8 or 9 picks. Whether this is a reflection of the depth of QB talent in this Draft; or simply a sign of how desperate some teams are for promising signal caller in an offence dominated league, is anyone's guess.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hadez
    replied
    The deals I get in the mock draft tools when 2 or 3 of the Mac Jones / Fields / Lance QBs are available are just insane. It will not happen. Even if three of them get to pick 4 by some miracle there will be teams calling from all around to move ahead of us.

    I use to be big on Zavan Collins...his got huge. Starting to look J Cox more as the ILB I think we need.

    If we have to stay at 9 think I am liking OT or Pitts should he still be there but I am 110% on the trade back wagon specially after hearing Paton say we have already had discussions with multiple teams about moving back.

    Leave a comment:


  • Gbt31
    replied
    Originally posted by samparnell View Post

    That would be the question: if? We'll get the answer on Thursday.

    It will depend on who is selected before Denver, and how they feel about Drew Lock. Denver could trade up, stay at #9 or trade back.

    Looks like at least five QBs will go in the first round; could tie 1983 at six, or even end up at seven. I wish them all the best of luck. We won't know for several years how they'll do.

    Looks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert from last year are doing well, and probably Tua Tagovailoa, too. Won't know until Aaron Rodgers retires how Jordan Love will do. If they all pan out for their teams, it will be the first time more than three first round QBs have come through for their teams.

    History of fourth QBs drafted in the first round:

    1983 Tony Eason;

    1987 Jim Harbaugh;

    1999 Daunte Culpepper;

    2003 Rex Grossman;

    2004 J.P. Losman;

    2011 Christian Ponder;

    2012 Brandon Weeden;

    2018 Josh Rosen;

    2020 Jordan Love
    What a surprisingly great draft class this was...aside from the QB flops.

    Leave a comment:


  • samparnell
    replied
    Originally posted by broncolee View Post

    My point, which more than one person seems to be missing, is that being the fourth player selected at a position doesn’t make that player the fourth best at that position. He could be the best player at that position.

    If the Broncos believe the quarterback available to them via trading up or staying at their spot is the best quarterback for them, they have a responsibility to get that quarterback.
    That would be the question: if? We'll get the answer on Thursday.

    It will depend on who is selected before Denver, and how they feel about Drew Lock. Denver could trade up, stay at #9 or trade back.

    Looks like at least five QBs will go in the first round; could tie 1983 at six, or even end up at seven. I wish them all the best of luck. We won't know for several years how they'll do.

    Looks like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert from last year are doing well, and probably Tua Tagovailoa, too. Won't know until Aaron Rodgers retires how Jordan Love will do. If they all pan out for their teams, it will be the first time more than three first round QBs have come through for their teams.

    History of fourth QBs drafted in the first round:

    1983 Tony Eason;

    1987 Jim Harbaugh;

    1999 Daunte Culpepper;

    2003 Rex Grossman;

    2004 J.P. Losman;

    2011 Christian Ponder;

    2012 Brandon Weeden;

    2018 Josh Rosen;

    2020 Jordan Love

    Leave a comment:


  • broncolee
    replied
    Originally posted by samparnell View Post

    If more than three QBs drafted in the first round this year are successful with the team that picks them, it will be unprecedented. I personally think that if all the first round QBs this year are successful, it would be pretty awesome, but it hasn't happened since 1967 ... yet.

    Since the Common Draft, three QBs have been selected in the first round eleven times; four have been picked six times: five have gone twice before. Six QBs were chosen in the first round once, in 1983. It looks like at least five QBs will get picked in the first round this year, and that could even be six, or maybe even seven.

    Not a fan of Denver trading up for a QB because the highest they could go is #4, since QBs are expected to go 1, 2, 3. If one of the top five QBs remains at #9, it will be interesting and will tell us what they think of Drew Lock. If a QB is there, other position players will be as well. If they like Drew Lock and a top Tackle is there, they could decide to help him by picking one. If a QB remains at #9 and other players of interest are gone, trading back is a real possibility.

    Spending draft capital to move up for a QB seems reckless and foolish IMO given the need to consider the team as a whole.
    My point, which more than one person seems to be missing, is that being the fourth player selected at a position doesn’t make that player the fourth best at that position. He could be the best player at that position.

    If the Broncos believe the quarterback available to them via trading up or staying at their spot is the best quarterback for them, they have a responsibility to get that quarterback.

    Leave a comment:


  • armedequation
    replied
    wouldnt it be wacky if jags take fields? i think the draft would probably break. think of the draft offers the jets would get in that scenerio.

    those are the most fun mock drafts when that happens. one time that happened and wilson was there at 9. i traded back with the chargers (yes it was the chargers but they offered me their 1st, 2nd and 2nd next year) and still was able to draft wilson.

    Leave a comment:


  • GMTD
    replied
    Originally posted by myoung View Post

    I don’t know what the 49ers will do at this point, but i know I have an easier time believe a source of information when it resonates with me.
    Confirmation bias makes the sporting world go round.

    Leave a comment:


  • myoung
    replied
    I love it!! There are a couple articles that say Shanahan is being tight lipped and isn’t even telling the coaches, and some are so willing to believe those “sources”... but won’t lend credence to other articles that say “ everything I am hearing from my sources says they will take xxx”

    I don’t know what the 49ers will do at this point, but i know I have an easier time believe a source of information when it resonates with me.

    the only thing I am sure of is that there is at least as much false information out there as their is good information.

    can’t wait until Thursday

    Leave a comment:

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