Tweet
With one week to go before training camp, I figured it's time to get some predictions down for 2019.
AFC West:
-San Angeles is the most talented team. They've got a good O and a very good D, and the have fairly good coaching (assuming Bradley learns to mix coverages). They have the look of a team that could make a deep run IF they don't ask Rivers to do too much. He's good enough to win with, but he's not good enough to carry the team to victory more than the odd time. I think they're an 11-5 or 12-4 team.
-Kansas City has the look of a team ready to take a big tumble. They have a bad D which got worse through in personnel along with hiring a worse DC. They've got an offence that's lost key pieces (Hill will miss at least 8 games) and they've got a QB who might be good, but will have a hard time getting close to the numbers he put up last year, especially since he had so much luck go his way. He could have a really good year, 35 touchdowns 10-12 interceptions, and that will be a massive step down from 2018. And finally they've got an average Head Coach who has reached his ceiling with the team. This looks like a 9-7 or 8-8 team to me.
-Oakland looks like a mess again. Gruden brought in a bunch of combustible personalities to add to a team that lacked leadership. They have improved talent, but they look like a team that could completely crumble when faced with any adversity. I think Brown lasts 1 season with the Raiders, and I think this year leads to some major buyers remorse with the 10 year contract they gave Gruden. 4-12 with some major issues in the news around November.
-Denver is a much improved team. This would be true with just the coaching changes alone. I'm not sure about Flacco, nor am I sold on the OC. But they will be improved in all 3 phases. BUT I'm not sure whether this improvement will show itself completely in the W/L column in 2019. They look like a team that could be anywhere from 6-10 to 11-5, but will probably be in the 7-9 to 9-7 window this year. However even with that they'll show themselves to be trending in the right direction.
NFL Wide:
-I know this is predicted every year but I think 2019 is the year we see regression from both Brees and Brady. With Brady I think it will be less of an issue. He will be less effective than ever before, but because of coaching I expect the Patriots to still win their division and be dangerous in the playoffs. Belichick will manage that team perfectly, and his shift to the heavier two TE offense a few years ago was to prepare for this day.
-Brees on the other hand will completely fall off the cliff. His last 4-5 games plus playoffs in 2018 were a lot like Manning in 2014. He's done, but he and the Saints are hoping he isn't. Because of this and his importance to the Saints (the entire offense is built on what he can do) I think the team crumbles. They'll have one of the top 3 picks in the draft to replace him and they do so with a completely new coaching staff and management team as Payton leaves for Dallas in 2020.
-I like a lot of the pieces the Browns assembled, but I think the excitement is a year too soon for them. Especially with their decision at Head Coach. I think they step back to 6-10 or 7-9 in 2019, before taking that big step forward in 2020.
-I think the Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC and Carson Went wins the MVP Award this season.
-I think Jimmy Garoppolo enters Rob Johnson territory by failing to stay healthy. Despite this San Fran takes a step forward to 7-9/8-8 territory, earning Kyle Shanahan another year to finally show he can coach this group up.
-Miami surprises people and finishes 10-6 led by the breakout of QB Josh Rosen
-Arizona will make a legitimate run at 0-16 behind a bad GM, a horrible choice for HC and using a first overall pick on a QB who is more hype than actual NFL calibre skill. They go into 2020 with a new GM and Head Coach and they use a third straight first round pick on a QB.
-Minnesota will right the ship and go 11-5 winning the NFC North. Kirk Cousins does what Kirk Cousins does, but the defense carries the team.
-Pete Carroll does what Pete Carroll and the Seahawks continue to be a good team winning the NFC West.
PLAYOFF TEAMS:
AFC: 1. San Angeles 2. New England 3. Indianapolis 4. Pittsburgh 5. Miami 6. Denver or Tennessee
NFC: 1. Philadelphia 2. Minnesota 3. Seattle 4. Carolina 5. Chicago 6. Detroit
AFC CG: Indianapolis over San Angeles
NFC CG: Philadelphia over Minnesota
Super Bowl: Philadelphia over Indianapolis
EDIT:
Top 5 picks in the 2020 Draft:
1. Arizona
2. Oakland
3. New Orleans
4. NY Giants
5. Cincinnati
AFC West:
-San Angeles is the most talented team. They've got a good O and a very good D, and the have fairly good coaching (assuming Bradley learns to mix coverages). They have the look of a team that could make a deep run IF they don't ask Rivers to do too much. He's good enough to win with, but he's not good enough to carry the team to victory more than the odd time. I think they're an 11-5 or 12-4 team.
-Kansas City has the look of a team ready to take a big tumble. They have a bad D which got worse through in personnel along with hiring a worse DC. They've got an offence that's lost key pieces (Hill will miss at least 8 games) and they've got a QB who might be good, but will have a hard time getting close to the numbers he put up last year, especially since he had so much luck go his way. He could have a really good year, 35 touchdowns 10-12 interceptions, and that will be a massive step down from 2018. And finally they've got an average Head Coach who has reached his ceiling with the team. This looks like a 9-7 or 8-8 team to me.
-Oakland looks like a mess again. Gruden brought in a bunch of combustible personalities to add to a team that lacked leadership. They have improved talent, but they look like a team that could completely crumble when faced with any adversity. I think Brown lasts 1 season with the Raiders, and I think this year leads to some major buyers remorse with the 10 year contract they gave Gruden. 4-12 with some major issues in the news around November.
-Denver is a much improved team. This would be true with just the coaching changes alone. I'm not sure about Flacco, nor am I sold on the OC. But they will be improved in all 3 phases. BUT I'm not sure whether this improvement will show itself completely in the W/L column in 2019. They look like a team that could be anywhere from 6-10 to 11-5, but will probably be in the 7-9 to 9-7 window this year. However even with that they'll show themselves to be trending in the right direction.
NFL Wide:
-I know this is predicted every year but I think 2019 is the year we see regression from both Brees and Brady. With Brady I think it will be less of an issue. He will be less effective than ever before, but because of coaching I expect the Patriots to still win their division and be dangerous in the playoffs. Belichick will manage that team perfectly, and his shift to the heavier two TE offense a few years ago was to prepare for this day.
-Brees on the other hand will completely fall off the cliff. His last 4-5 games plus playoffs in 2018 were a lot like Manning in 2014. He's done, but he and the Saints are hoping he isn't. Because of this and his importance to the Saints (the entire offense is built on what he can do) I think the team crumbles. They'll have one of the top 3 picks in the draft to replace him and they do so with a completely new coaching staff and management team as Payton leaves for Dallas in 2020.
-I like a lot of the pieces the Browns assembled, but I think the excitement is a year too soon for them. Especially with their decision at Head Coach. I think they step back to 6-10 or 7-9 in 2019, before taking that big step forward in 2020.
-I think the Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC and Carson Went wins the MVP Award this season.
-I think Jimmy Garoppolo enters Rob Johnson territory by failing to stay healthy. Despite this San Fran takes a step forward to 7-9/8-8 territory, earning Kyle Shanahan another year to finally show he can coach this group up.
-Miami surprises people and finishes 10-6 led by the breakout of QB Josh Rosen
-Arizona will make a legitimate run at 0-16 behind a bad GM, a horrible choice for HC and using a first overall pick on a QB who is more hype than actual NFL calibre skill. They go into 2020 with a new GM and Head Coach and they use a third straight first round pick on a QB.
-Minnesota will right the ship and go 11-5 winning the NFC North. Kirk Cousins does what Kirk Cousins does, but the defense carries the team.
-Pete Carroll does what Pete Carroll and the Seahawks continue to be a good team winning the NFC West.
PLAYOFF TEAMS:
AFC: 1. San Angeles 2. New England 3. Indianapolis 4. Pittsburgh 5. Miami 6. Denver or Tennessee
NFC: 1. Philadelphia 2. Minnesota 3. Seattle 4. Carolina 5. Chicago 6. Detroit
AFC CG: Indianapolis over San Angeles
NFC CG: Philadelphia over Minnesota
Super Bowl: Philadelphia over Indianapolis
EDIT:
Top 5 picks in the 2020 Draft:
1. Arizona
2. Oakland
3. New Orleans
4. NY Giants
5. Cincinnati
but it looks like the Falcons and Seahawks for the conference championship... Falcons in the SB.
Comment