Herbert and Wilson and whatever is playing in Vegas all suck

[Stackhouser]

No, not just on paper. Herbert is physically superior to Mahomes in terms of size, speed and he throws better, more accurate passes than Mahomes throws in reality. All you need is eyes and a stopwatch to see that that is true in reality.

Also, what you characterize as "outsmarting a coach" is in reality a purely mathematical analysis based upon certain assumptions. I am sure that Staley understands football techniques better than I do. However, he does not get to create his own rules when it comes to mathematics.

The mathematical analysis is really quite simple. If you assume defenses of equal strength, but that your offense is better than your opponent's in terms of expected points per drive, then you want a game that has more offensive possessions because that should allow the expected point difference to become more pronounced. The worst of all worlds in that situation is an offensive scheme that tends to limit possessions coupled with a defensive scheme that also tends to limit possessions, which is exactly what the Chargers have had under Staley to this point.

Such a combination also tends to produce more close games, so it no surprise that the Chargers played in 12 one possession games in the 2022 regular season.

Making claims like the highlighted is laughable, and at this point, opinion based. Please provide data supporting otherwise!!

[baphamet]

Making claims like the highlighted is laughable, and at this point, opinion based. Please provide data supporting otherwise!!

It is an opinion but an opinion I happen to agree with. Mahomes has had the best offensive mind in football his entire career and Herbert has had one of the worst. other than his rookie season, arguably the best rookie season any QB has ever had.

If we are talking just physical ability, Herbert is one of the best physical talents to ever play QB in the NFL. stats or wins don't prove this right or wrong, you have to actually watch the kid play.

[BiscuitBronco]

Hate to say it but the Bolts are gonna be the team to beat in the West. Chiefs will be a bit soggy this year and faiders, as usual, are irrelevant

[Stackhouser]

It is an opinion but an opinion I happen to agree with. Mahomes has had the best offensive mind in football his entire career and Herbert has had one of the worst. other than his rookie season, arguably the best rookie season any QB has ever had.

If we are talking just physical ability, Herbert is one of the best physical talents to ever play QB in the NFL. stats or wins don't prove this right or wrong, you have to actually watch the kid play.

I have watched him play.... Tons..... He is a great QB with insane physical talent, and so is Mahomes, but it's still just opinion based. Mahomes has had a great offensive mind leading the team, but we're not talking about that. The quote from WeHaveHerbert was "Herbert is physically superior to Mahomes in terms of size, speed and he throws better, more accurate passes than Mahomes". Yes, he's taller and heavier, so he wins that part. Other than just watching the games with the bolt colored glasses or the ugly red & yellow type, I believe there is zero data that supports the statement.

Herbert had a great rookie season. Won the rookie of the year, I know...... Mahomes didn't start as a rookie but his first full season starting, he won MVP and had much better stats than Herbert comparing their first seasons as starters. Now, stats are a result of play and the physical ability to move with speed and agility and seeing the field affects your stats. Mahomes also throws some of the craziest passes I've ever seen, and it seems it's always against Denver. That's a physical attribute. Accuracy is actually one WeHaveHerbert quoted and TD/int ratio plays into that. it's not close. Mahomes beats Herbert in every category their first three seasons as starters with the exception of yards, but only by 221 yards (Herbert played 4 more games in the regular season those 3 years). Lets look at QBR those 3 years. I know you know what QBR is, but for the sake of our readers, QBR incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Mahomes avg. was 78.7, Herbert 62.1. Mahomes QB rating avg. was 109.1, Herberts avg. was 96.2.

I can't believe I'm arguing for Mahomes.... I just puked in my mouth writing this, (and I would admit that I'd rather have Herbert than Mahomes for the long run). I just think Mahomes has shown superior physical attributes at this point. I'm not saying Herbert isn't right there, and may prove better, but it's all opinion based against fan bases at this point. I'm a Bronco fan for pete's sake!!!! LOL

[baphamet]

I have watched him play.... Tons..... He is a great QB with insane physical talent, and so is Mahomes, but it's still just opinion based. Mahomes has had a great offensive mind leading the team, but we're not talking about that. The quote from WeHaveHerbert was "Herbert is physically superior to Mahomes in terms of size, speed and he throws better, more accurate passes than Mahomes". Yes, he's taller and heavier, so he wins that part. Other than just watching the games with the bolt colored glasses or the ugly red & yellow type, I believe there is zero data that supports the statement.

well, Herbert is bigger and faster and IMO has a stronger arm, and is indeed more accurate when throwing down the field. physically, he is superior to Mahomes IMO.

the difference is Mahomes makes things happen more often with weird unconventional passes that leave you scratching your head. he also, as I said, has an offensive mastermind as a head coach and play caller.

Herbert had a great rookie season. Won the rookie of the year, I know...... Mahomes didn't start as a rookie but his first full season starting, he won MVP and had much better stats than Herbert comparing their first seasons as starters. Now, stats are a result of play and the physical ability to move with speed and agility and seeing the field affects your stats.

Herbert had shane steichen in his rookie season as a play caller but freaking joe lombardi the last two. I mean, Herbert had the second-lowest air yards last season despite having that howitzer cannon for an arm.

the term "handcuffed" doesn't even do it justice. Im not saying mahomes wouldn't have had a similar rookie season, but he damn sure would have had the best play caller in football just as he has enjoyed his entire career.

look at Reid's track record with QB's, he's elevated them all. It would be naive to think he hasn't elevated Mahomes, even though Mahomes is definitely an elite talent for sure.

Mahomes also throws some of the craziest passes I've ever seen, and it seems it's always against Denver. That's a physical attribute.

Herbert has made similar plays too, but I don't agree that has much to do with physical ability. Mahomes has done that a lot more. but then again, we are throwing scheme and personnel into the mix.

Accuracy is actually one WeHaveHerbert quoted and TD/int ratio plays into that. it's not close. Mahomes beats Herbert in every category their first three seasons as starters with the exception of yards, but only by 221 yards (Herbert played 4 more games in the regular season those 3 years). Lets look at QBR those 3 years. I know you know what QBR is, but for the sake of our readers, QBR incorporates all of a quarterback's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers, and penalties. Mahomes avg. was 78.7, Herbert 62.1. Mahomes QB rating avg. was 109.1, Herberts avg. was 96.2.

nope, this is where scheme, play calling, and personnel come into play. you simply cannot say one QB is more accurate than another simply by saying his TD/int ratio is better or even completion percentage.

even total QBR does not take into account scheme or play calling and even to an extent personnel. Give andy reid justin herbert or give Herbert an above-average offensive mind with an above-average offensive scheme and then we can make the total QBR comparison.

I think that will happen this season.

can't believe I'm arguing for Mahomes.... I just puked in my mouth writing this, (and I would admit that I'd rather have Herbert than Mahomes for the long run). I just think Mahomes has shown superior physical attributes at this point. I'm not saying Herbert isn't right there, and may prove better, but it's all opinion based against fan bases at this point. I'm a Bronco fan for pete's sake!!!! LOL

I don't deny Mahomes is the superior QB overall right now. but it's not because he is physically better. you know how I feel about phil rivers, he will and should be in the HOF one day. but that dude is a slightly above-average physical talent at best.

rivers' best years were with who? That's right, norv freakin turner! another offensive mastermind.

it takes more than physical talent to be the best and to be successful. but as I said before if we are only talking physical talent........ Herbert has it all and I can't think of very many QBs who have played the game I can honestly say have/had better physical attributes you want in a QB, if any at all.

just my opinion.

[baphamet]

oh, and herbert plays for the Chargers and Mahomes plays for the Chiefs and refs! (had to throw that out there! )

[JPPT1974]

Refs do seem to have their favorites now don't they?!

[jazzbodog]

Hate to say it but the Bolts are gonna be the team to beat in the West. Chiefs will be a bit soggy this year and faiders, as usual, are irrelevant

You hate to say it but your never wrong "crystal ball" has revealed true AFC West total reality and the Bronco Nation will be blown off planet NFL. True prophecy.

[WeHaveHerbert]

Making claims like the highlighted is laughable, and at this point, opinion based. Please provide data supporting otherwise!!

You acknowledge in another post that Herbert is bigger/heavier, which is obvious.

Herbert's 40 time is 4.68 versus 4.80 for Mahomes. So Herbert is faster than Mahomes.

Per Pro Football Reference, in terms of accuracy, Herbert was more accurate that Mahomes in 2021, being on target 80.2% of the time versus 77.5% for Mahomes. In fairness, Mahomes did narrowly edge Herbert last year in on target percentage at 77.1% versus 75.6% for Herbert. Over the two years as a whole, Herbert has been on target at a higher rate. In bad pass percentage (where a lower percentage is better), Herbert was better than Mahomes in both seasons. In 2022, Herbert's bad pass percentage was 12.9% versus 15.4% for Mahomes. In 2021, Herbert's bad pass percentage was 14.6% versus 18.8% for Mahomes.

As for throwing "better" passes, that refers to a tighter spiral and more zip on the ball. I have also described this as "throwing a better ball". I do not believe that stat is kept anywhere, but the difference really stood out when I was at the LAC/KC game at Arrowhead in 2021. I already have my ticket for this year's game at Arrowhead, so hopefully I will get to see that again on October 22nd. It does stand out better in person than it does on television. And to be clear, my observation is not "homer" based at all any more than it would be if I said that Mahomes throws tighter passes with more zip than Philip Rivers did, which is also true. Are you suggesting that what I have said here is not true?

My assertions are far from laughable. They are all either objectively supported by the data or are obvious enough to observe via what has been historically referred to as the "eyeball test".

[WeHaveHerbert]

well, Herbert is bigger and faster and IMO has a stronger arm, and is indeed more accurate when throwing down the field. physically, he is superior to Mahomes IMO.

the difference is Mahomes makes things happen more often with weird unconventional passes that leave you scratching your head. he also, as I said, has an offensive mastermind as a head coach and play caller.



Herbert had shane steichen in his rookie season as a play caller but freaking joe lombardi the last two. I mean, Herbert had the second-lowest air yards last season despite having that howitzer cannon for an arm.

the term "handcuffed" doesn't even do it justice. Im not saying mahomes wouldn't have had a similar rookie season, but he damn sure would have had the best play caller in football just as he has enjoyed his entire career.

look at Reid's track record with QB's, he's elevated them all. It would be naive to think he hasn't elevated Mahomes, even though Mahomes is definitely an elite talent for sure.




Herbert has made similar plays too, but I don't agree that has much to do with physical ability. Mahomes has done that a lot more. but then again, we are throwing scheme and personnel into the mix.



nope, this is where scheme, play calling, and personnel come into play. you simply cannot say one QB is more accurate than another simply by saying his TD/int ratio is better or even completion percentage.

even total QBR does not take into account scheme or play calling and even to an extent personnel. Give andy reid justin herbert or give Herbert an above-average offensive mind with an above-average offensive scheme and then we can make the total QBR comparison.

I think that will happen this season.





I don't deny Mahomes is the superior QB overall right now. but it's not because he is physically better. you know how I feel about phil rivers, he will and should be in the HOF one day. but that dude is a slightly above-average physical talent at best.

rivers' best years were with who? That's right, norv freakin turner! another offensive mastermind.

it takes more than physical talent to be the best and to be successful. but as I said before if we are only talking physical talent........ Herbert has it all and I can't think of very many QBs who have played the game I can honestly say have/had better physical attributes you want in a QB, if any at all.

just my opinion.

You understand the points that I was making about Herbert. Any Chargers fan would.

I agree with 99% of what you have said. I cannot even begin to describe the level of difference between Andy Reid and Joe Lombardi. As you stated, the term "handcuffed" does not even begin to do it justice when discussing Lombardi's scheme and play calling. I am expecting a huge difference with Kellen Moore, but am a little concerned that Moore will think he can run as much with us as he did with DAL. We are not set up that way, so our pass to run ratio needs to remain higher than what he was doing with DAL. But marrying the run to the pass (as Reid has done so well for the Chiefs) and passing the ball down the field as Moore will do will be hugely helpful for us.

If our defense would get us off of the field more regularly and quickly, I would predict that we would lead the NFL in scoring this year. The defense is the only thing preventing me from making that prediction right now.

Herbert is better physically and does throw a better ball than Mahomes. He does have better arm strength based upon what I have seen in person. On target stats are kept and over the past two years, Herbert has been better than Mahomes in terms of accuracy. He also throws a significantly lower percentage of "bad passes", which is another stat that is kept.

I agree that Mahomes has historically been better than Herbert at out of the pocket, off schedule throws. However, he has also had Tyreek Hill, the best receiver in the NFL for such passes because he can run away from coverage into space no matter where the space is if he is given enough time, so it became an easy game of throw to the big patch of grass and watch Hill go get it for all of Mahomes' seasons except last season and Mahomes' off schedule throws did seem to take a bit of a hit last year.

Where I disagree is that I do not think Mahomes is in any way superior to Herbert in terms of overall QB play right now. I think that once the team is up to speed with Moore's play calling and the advantage of having Reid that Mahomes has enjoyed is even partially offset with Herbert now having Moore, Herbert will outperform Mahomes. Others can see this realistic result, which is why Herbert is being touted a strong MVP candidate this year.

And Mahomes' big year was not his rookie season, but his second season as Mahomes was QB2 behind Smith in his first season. And I credit Reid for Mahomes' results in 2018 at least as much as I credit Mahomes, though I agree that Mahomes is very talented.

[WeHaveHerbert]

oh, and herbert plays for the Chargers and Mahomes plays for the Chiefs and refs! (had to throw that out there! )

You mean that it helps to be given the AFCCG and Super Bowl by penalties, really?

[baphamet]

Where I disagree is that I do not think Mahomes is in any way superior to Herbert in terms of overall QB play right now. I think that once the team is up to speed with Moore's play calling and the advantage of having Reid that Mahomes has enjoyed is even partially offset with Herbert now having Moore, Herbert will outperform Mahomes. Others can see this realistic result, which is why Herbert is being touted a strong MVP candidate this year.

You're talking about potential here because the rest of your comment is yet to be seen. He hasn't outperformed Mahomes overall yet. sure, he could surpass Mahomes overall IMO with the upgraded offense and added speed. but it hasn't happened yet.

I do think the offense is going to explode this season with injuries permitting so we will see.

[WeHaveHerbert]

You're talking about potential here because the rest of your comment is yet to be seen. He hasn't outperformed Mahomes overall yet. sure, he could surpass Mahomes overall IMO with the upgraded offense and added speed. but it hasn't happened yet.

I do think the offense is going to explode this season with injuries permitting so we will see.

No, I am not discussing potential. As clearly as I could ever say it, if you were to have switched Herbert and Mahomes based upon how both QBs have played over past couple of seasons, the Chargers would have been a worse team and the Chiefs would have been a better team in 2021, 2022 and going forward. This has been obfuscated by the fact that the Chargers have largely not rostered speedy deep threats at WR and have had arguably the worst player caller in the NFL while the Chiefs at the same time have had arguably the best play caller in the NFL in Andy Reid.

Could you even imagine having a season in which Herbert (best deep passer), Tyreek Hill (best deep receiver) and Andy Reid (best play caller) were combined?

Reid's play calling has allowed Mahomes to stat pad like nobody's business whereas Lombardi has torpedoed Herbert's passing TD numbers, his YPA, his TD/INT ratio, and his completion percentage, all of which drives down QB rating, by so predictably calling almost exclusively short passes into tight coverage against rolled up defenses that knew we were not throwing deep, and running with Ekeler virtually all the time in goal to go situations instead of having Herbert throw TD passes. Even when we passed in goal to go situations, almost all of the plays were designed to be thrown short of the end zone. It was like Lombardi at times was incapable of calling a passing play in which the ball traveled in the air into the end zone, which was utterly amazing since Herbert with his accurate cannon of an arm is the best QB in the whole league when it comes to very tight window "fitted" passes that receivers have to catch to avoid crush damage to their bodies.

So, the issue that I have with your discussion is that when you use the word "potential", that suggests that Herbert would have to improve to be better than Mahomes. I disagree. If you gave both players equal conditions, Herbert's superiority would be fairly easy to observe. It certainly was when I watched both players live playing in the same game.

[Stackhouser]

No, I am not discussing potential. As clearly as I could ever say it, if you were to have switched Herbert and Mahomes based upon how both QBs have played over past couple of seasons, the Chargers would have been a worse team and the Chiefs would have been a better team in 2021, 2022 and going forward. This has been obfuscated by the fact that the Chargers have largely not rostered speedy deep threats at WR and have had arguably the worst player caller in the NFL while the Chiefs at the same time have had arguably the best play caller in the NFL in Andy Reid.

Could you even imagine having a season in which Herbert (best deep passer), Tyreek Hill (best deep receiver) and Andy Reid (best play caller) were combined?

Reid's play calling has allowed Mahomes to stat pad like nobody's business whereas Lombardi has torpedoed Herbert's passing TD numbers, his YPA, his TD/INT ratio, and his completion percentage, all of which drives down QB rating, by so predictably calling almost exclusively short passes into tight coverage against rolled up defenses that knew we were not throwing deep, and running with Ekeler virtually all the time in goal to go situations instead of having Herbert throw TD passes. Even when we passed in goal to go situations, almost all of the plays were designed to be thrown short of the end zone. It was like Lombardi at times was incapable of calling a passing play in which the ball traveled in the air into the end zone, which was utterly amazing since Herbert with his accurate cannon of an arm is the best QB in the whole league when it comes to very tight window "fitted" passes that receivers have to catch to avoid crush damage to their bodies.

So, the issue that I have with your discussion is that when you use the word "potential", that suggests that Herbert would have to improve to be better than Mahomes. I disagree. If you gave both players equal conditions, Herbert's superiority would be fairly easy to observe. It certainly was when I watched both players live playing in the same game.

COMPLETE SPECULATION....

You can't live in a world of what ifs man. Mahomes and Reid are a perfect marriage. There is absolutely no way to say if this guy played here or there, they would be the king of the world. You have absolutely zero data to say that Herbert would be better, worse, or the same under Reid or with the weapons he's had. Potential is all it is at this point.

[baphamet]

No, I am not discussing potential. As clearly as I could ever say it, if you were to have switched Herbert and Mahomes based upon how both QBs have played over past couple of seasons.

sorry man but I'm going to stop you right there. yes it is speculation at its very definition. even though i think Herbert is the superior physical talent, he has yet to prove it fully (that he is the better overall QB), he has yet to reach his full potential.

He cannot do it on his own but assuming this or that if things were different doesn't prove anything. we will see this year, but id lay money down that the chargers offense will be elite top 5 in the league.