Vegas Odds - Question About Point Spread

[broncoslover115]

Hi There My Knowledgeable Football Fans,

I see the football odds for the games this weekend.

Bengals v Hou ((-4.5)
Min v. GB (-8)
Indy v. Bal (-6.5)
Sea (-3) v Was

Can someone please explain to me how the spread works. I don't understand the negative point spread. What does it mean? If it was +4.5 does it mean that the team with the +4.5 would score 4.5 more points or does it mean something else? When it is listed as a negative point spread, I'm really clueless. Can one of you who is more knowledgeable help a gal out?

[PunchDrunk]

The team with the negative number is favored to win the game.

I don't know why they do it that way but they do.

[DenverBlood]

The team with the negative number is favored to win the game.

I don't know why they do it that way but they do.

It's because it's referred to as getting points. For example the Bungles are getting 4.5 points against Houston. This means Vegas is giving the Bungles a free 4.5 points to start the game. So to start the game Cincinnati is up 4.5-0. Then you pick who will win the game from that point on.

That means they think Houston is 4.5 points better than Cincinatti and would still win the game if the Bungles were given a free 4.5 points. That's why Houston is shown at -4.5 as the favorite and Cincinnati is +4.5 as the underdog. Cincinatti starts with a +4.5 advantage while Houston starts at a -4.5 disadvantage.

The line moves based on wether betters thinks Cincinatti would win with a free 4.5 points or if they think Houston would still win even with the -4.5 points.

Houston would have to win the game by 5 points for a better to win the bet. So if Houston wins 32-27 they covered the spread. But if they only win 32-28 Cincinatti covers the spread even though they lost the game. That's why most Vegas lines tend to be x.5 because the don't want bettors getting a push and getting their money back. They do even lines sometimes though as you can see. I think generally when they point spread is a lot higher and their are less odds of getting it to push.

Hope this isn't confusing and makes sense. Home field is usually considered worth 3 points. So Vegas thinks Houston would win by 4.5 at home, 1.5 on a nuetral field and cincy would be favored by 1.5 at home.

[Chronic_Toker]

The team that is favored is essentially losing points. Think of it like they start out with negative points and must overcome them in the final score in order to beat the spread.

[broncoslover115]

It's because it's referred to as getting points. For example the Bungles are getting 4.5 points against Houston. This means Vegas is giving the Bungles a free 4.5 points to start the game. So to start the game Cincinnati is up 4.5-0. Then you pick who will win the game from that point on.

That means they think Houston is 4.5 points better than Cincinatti and would still win the game if the Bungles were given a free 4.5 points. That's why Houston is shown at -4.5 as the favorite and Cincinnati is +4.5 as the underdog. Cincinatti starts with a +4.5 advantage while Houston starts at a -4.5 disadvantage.

The line moves based on wether betters thinks Cincinatti would win with a free 4.5 points or if they think Houston would still win even with the -4.5 points.

Houston would have to win the game by 5 points for a better to win the bet. So if Houston wins 32-27 they covered the spread. But if they only win 32-28 Cincinatti covers the spread even though they lost the game. That's why most Vegas lines tend to be x.5 because the don't want bettors getting a push and getting their money back. They do even lines sometimes though as you can see. I think generally when they point spread is a lot higher and their are less odds of getting it to push.

Hope this isn't confusing and makes sense. Home field is usually considered worth 3 points. So Vegas thinks Houston would win by 4.5 at home, 1.5 on a nuetral field and cincy would be favored by 1.5 at home.

Thank you, that was a great explanation and the first time I really understood it. Appreciate it.

[Broncos724]

It's because it's referred to as getting points. For example the Bungles are getting 4.5 points against Houston. This means Vegas is giving the Bungles a free 4.5 points to start the game. So to start the game Cincinnati is up 4.5-0. Then you pick who will win the game from that point on.

That means they think Houston is 4.5 points better than Cincinatti and would still win the game if the Bungles were given a free 4.5 points. That's why Houston is shown at -4.5 as the favorite and Cincinnati is +4.5 as the underdog. Cincinatti starts with a +4.5 advantage while Houston starts at a -4.5 disadvantage.

The line moves based on wether betters thinks Cincinatti would win with a free 4.5 points or if they think Houston would still win even with the -4.5 points.

Houston would have to win the game by 5 points for a better to win the bet. So if Houston wins 32-27 they covered the spread. But if they only win 32-28 Cincinatti covers the spread even though they lost the game. That's why most Vegas lines tend to be x.5 because the don't want bettors getting a push and getting their money back. They do even lines sometimes though as you can see. I think generally when they point spread is a lot higher and their are less odds of getting it to push.

Hope this isn't confusing and makes sense. Home field is usually considered worth 3 points. So Vegas thinks Houston would win by 4.5 at home, 1.5 on a nuetral field and cincy would be favored by 1.5 at home.

This is how you spell Cincinnati sorry that is a pet peeve of mine haha

For the record, I would definitely bet on the Bengals in this game with that spread, if I were into sports betting...

[DenverBlood]

This is how you spell Cincinnati sorry that is a pet peeve of mine haha

For the record, I would definitely bet on the Bengals in this game with that spread, if I were into sports betting...

My bad. I knew I was probably spelling it wrong. I knew it was eiter only 1 n or 1 t so I went with the double t. Probably should've just looked it up.

[CanDB]

Ha ha.......trust Vegas and all those big money gamblers to make a simple thing confusing. Why not just say Houston is the home team and favoured by 4.5 points????

The real "odds" is that they'll get you one way or another!!!

[Broncos724]

My bad. I knew I was probably spelling it wrong. I knew it was eiter only 1 n or 1 t so I went with the double t. Probably should've just looked it up.

It's all good! A lot of people not from Cincy tend to spell it wrong so you can be one of the few who knows how to spell it properly

[RunYouOver]

Another thing to keep in mind when looking at point spreads; it's not who Vegas thinks will win that determines the spread (or by how much they'll win), but rather what point spread they think will attract bettors evenly on both sides.

Vegas' goal is to have 50% of the betting on one team and 50% on the other. Because they take a percentage out of the winnings (usually 10%), even betting on each side of the spread will ALWAYS give Vegas a profit.

So just because Houston is favored by 4.5 doesn't mean Vegas expects a 4-5 point game, but they think the public is expecting a 4-5 point game, so half the people will bet on either side.

[DenverBlood]

Another thing to keep in mind when looking at point spreads; it's not who Vegas thinks will win that determines the spread (or by how much they'll win), but rather what point spread they think will attract bettors evenly on both sides.

Vegas' goal is to have 50% of the betting on one team and 50% on the other. Because they take a percentage out of the winnings (usually 10%), even betting on each side of the spread will ALWAYS give Vegas a profit.

So just because Houston is favored by 4.5 doesn't mean Vegas expects a 4-5 point game, but they think the public is expecting a 4-5 point game, so half the people will bet on either side.

Yeah I didn't really go into that much detail. I did briefly mention that the line moves based on how bettors place their bets. Just didn't explain that it's to even out for Vegas so they make the most money.

But I do tend to hear people refer to it as Vegas likes so and so. But you are right the line will move based on what fans think not Vegas. It just starts where they think a team should be favored though right? Either way the team with the - is predicted to win.

[RunYouOver]

Yeah I didn't really go into that much detail. I did briefly mention that the line moves based on how bettors place their bets. Just didn't explain that it's to even out for Vegas so they make the most money.

But I do tend to hear people refer to it as Vegas likes so and so. But you are right the line will move based on what fans think not Vegas. It just starts where they think a team should be favored though right? Either way the team with the - is predicted to win.

Well you can tell who Vegas likes sometimes if there's a point spread that seems off. If we played the Bengals in round 2 and Vegas LOVED the Bengals to beat us, you'd see a surprisingly low line, like Denver -3.5 or so. This would put a lot of pressure for bettors to take Denver, and the split would probably be about 65-35 in favor of Denver, and eventually they'd push it closer to even as the week went on moving to maybe -5 or so.

But that's when Vegas takes risks, when you see point spreads that don't really make sense.

[Double_L]

Min v. GB (-8)

This one looks the most attractive to me if I were a betting man (taking Minn and the points). Any gamblers wanna chime in?

[RunYouOver]

This one looks the most attractive to me if I were a betting man (taking Minn and the points). Any gamblers wanna chime in?

Vegas is doing two things with this spread, which makes it unattractive to me.

1) A lot of people will see this as an easy bet because Minnesota just beat them (proving they can win outright) and 8 points is a lot for a good team.

The flaw: Beating a top team like the Packers twice in a row is next to impossible. It can be done, but the odds are stacked against them, despite looking like it'd favor them following the win. Playoffs are usually all about a dominant D or an elite QB. Christian Ponder vs. Aaron Rodgers leaves far too big of a gap for AP or the defense to make up. To beat the Packers last week, Ponder had a career game. He'd have to do that again just to keep the game within a touchdown. With the pressure of the playoffs, that's a lot to ask for.

2) GB tends to attract a lot of sharps (aka people who bet big money), which pushes their point spread a little bit higher than it maybe should be, in order to balance out the flow of money on either side of the bet. It happens with the Patriots, and it's been happening with Denver this season, especially as of late (we were 17 point favorites last week, our biggest spread EVER...and we doubled it). Vegas this year has actually taken a big hit, as shocking as that sounds. Sharps bet big on teams with great QBs generally, and because Denver, New England and Green Bay all went above .500 against the spread this year, it cost Vegas. (Denver was actually 10-5-1, good for 5th best in the NFL). The other reason this spread is 8 points is to try and either scare the sharps away, or catch them on a spread too high and make the money off them.

The flaw: GB's got a powerful offense and are certainly looking to prove something coming off the loss. A 10 point win is entirely possible. Yet at the same time...they just lost to this team! First things first, you've got to beat them before you can worry about beating them by 8+ points.

If it looks too good to be true or too risky, it usually is. You just have to know where to look. Personally, I see GB covering the spread, but its too big of a spread for a playoff game to be worth the bet.

[BIGB83]

This is why I only bet money line parlays...I dont like messing around with spreads...just pick the teams I think will win